A comprehensive investigation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events and upper atmospheric signatures associated with them
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Jinee Gogoi↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “SSW”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of Dynamics and Transport During the Record-Breaking 2009 Arctic Stratospheric Major Warming
A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2009 was the strongest and most prolonged on record. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations are used to provide an overview of dynamics and transport during the 2009 SSW, and to compare with the intense, long-lasting SSW in January 2006. The Arctic polar vortex split during the 2009 SSW, whereas the 2006 SSW was a vortex displacement event. Winds reversed to easterly more rapidly and reverted to westerly more slowly in 2009 than in 2006. More mixing of trace gases out of the vortex during the decay of the vortex fragments, and less before the fulfillment of major SSW criteria, was seen in 2009 than in 2006; persistent well-defined fragments of vortex and anticyclone air were more prevalent in 2009. The 2009 SSW had a more profound impact on the lower stratosphere than any previously observed SSW, with no significant recovery of the vortex in that region. The stratopause breakdown and subsequent reformation at very high altitude, accompanied by enhanced descent into a rapidly strengthening upper stratospheric vortex, were similar in 2009 and 2006. Many differences between 2006 and 2009 appear to be related to the different character of the SSWs in the two years.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Connections Between the Stratosphere and Surface Weather Associated with the Stratospheric Sudden Warming in Early 2018
A major Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) occurred on 11 February 2018. This was the first major SSW since January 2013 and the first split-vortex SSW since January 2009. We examine the SSW and the tropospheric connections using the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (1980-2018) and the NASA GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system. A strong tropospheric wave forcing event in January 2018 displaced the stratospheric vortex off the pole. This displaced vortex persisted until the major SSW vortex split in February. At the time of the major SSW split vortex event the MERRA-2 100 hPa meridional heat flux, a measure of the tropospheric forcing on the stratosphere, attained record high values, associated with a strong tropospheric ridge over the US west coast and wave disturbances over the North Atlantic and Asia. The near-real-time GEOS-FP system forecasted the major SSW event with high skill out to 10 days. The analyses also show that after, the SSW, a steady circulation anomaly persisted over the European sector and the transient weather systems were concentrated over the North American continent, under the stronger of the two split vortices. The propagation of these synoptic-scale vortices around the deep, quasi-stationary vortex that extended from the surface into the stratosphere, is well illustrated in animations of extreme temperature changes near the surface over North America. A quantitative analysis of these synoptic waves and their propagation will examine their signatures in potential vorticity and other fields.
Pawson, S.↗
Multi-Artifact Analysis of Self-Admitted Technical Debt in Scientific Software
Context: Self-admitted technical debt (SATD) occurs when developers acknowledge shortcuts in code. In scientific software (SSW), such debt poses unique risks to the validity and reproducibility of results. Objective: This study aims to identify, categorize, and evaluate scientific debt, a specialized form of SATD in SSW, and assess the extent to which traditional SATD categories capture these domain-specific issues. Method: We conduct a multi-artifact analysis across code comments, commit messages, pull requests, and issue trackers from 23 open-source SSW projects. We construct and validate a curated dataset of scientific debt, develop a multi-source SATD classifier to guide SATD management, and conduct a practitioner validation to assess the practical relevance of scientific debt. Results: Our classifier performs strongly across 900,358 artifacts from 23 SSW projects. SATD is most prevalent in pull requests and issue trackers, underscoring the value of multi-artifact analysis. Models trained on traditional SATD often miss scientific debt, emphasizing the need for its explicit detection in SSW. Practitioner validation confirmed that scientific debt is both recognizable and useful in practice. Conclusions: Scientific debt represents a unique form of SATD in SSW that that is not adequately captured by traditional categories and requires specialized identification and management. Our dataset, classification analysis, and practitioner validation results provide the first formal multi-artifact perspective on scientific debt, highlighting the need for tailored SATD detection approaches in SSW.
Melin, Eric [Boise State University]↗
The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System
We examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.
SSW↗
Self-Admitted Technical Debt in Scientific Software: Prioritization, Sentiment, and Propagation Across Artifacts
Self-admitted technical debt (SATD) impairs scientific software (SSW), yet its prioritization, sentiment, persistence, and propagation remains underexplored. Understanding how SSW developers express, and address SATD is crucial for improving SSW maintenance, and tooling. This study investigates how SATD types and artifacts in SSW are prioritized, how sentiment relates to urgency, SATD removal and resolution rates, and the extent to which SATD propagates across artifacts. We analyzed nine SSW repositories using a SATD classification model and a semantic embedding-based prioritization heuristic. SATD was examined across multiple artifacts, with sentiment assessed via a fine-tuned transformer. Propagation was traced, priority scores compared to static analysis, and removal and resolution rates quantified. SATD in comments, commits, and pull requests receive higher priority than SATD in issues, with negative sentiment amplifying urgency. Resolution and removal rates lag behind open-source software (OSS) averages. Most SATD remains confined to the originating artifact, but longer propagation chains are rare and correlate with higher priority, highlighting persistent and high impact debt. Prioritization is influenced by artifact type and sentiment, while low removal and resolution rates signal persistent debt. Cross-artifact propagation marks high priority, unresolved SATD, providing empirical guidance for targeted monitoring, review prioritization, and tool supported maintenance in SSW.
Melin, Eric [Boise State University]↗
Boundary of the Slow Solar Wind
This work argues that there are two fundamental states of the non-transient solar wind, and that these can be distinguished by a number of criteria. Here we define the states, which will be termed slow and fast, or SSW and FSW, for lack of better terms, by the level of velocity fluctuations, v, in them, with the slow wind having systematically lower fluctuations than the fast wind. Almost all winds with speeds less than 450 km s1 are in the slow class, and winds with speeds greater than 600 km s1 are fast, but we argue that in between, consistent with other work, the v classification is more fundamental than speed. We show that the fluctuation categorization coincides well with classes based on Alfvénicy, proton specific entropy, ion thermal speed, and ionic composition. This correlated behavior among these solar wind parameters exists regardless of it being associated with a heliospheric current sheet or a pseudostreamer. This work provides evidence that both the so-called SSW I and SSW II scenarios coexist for the SSW formation. In addition, that the dynamical properties (thermal, magnetic, and turbulence properties) correlate well with properties set at the inner corona (ion ionization states and FIP bias)implies that there exists a boundary layer on the Sun within which the SSW is formed. This boundary layer would set up the coronal conditions for the source and transport of the SSW.
Ko, Yuan-Kuen↗
The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses
Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Mesoscale Simulations of Gravity Waves During the 2008-2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming
A series of 24 h mesoscale simulations (of 10 km horizontal and 400 m vertical resolution) are performed to examine the characteristics and forcing of gravity waves (GWs) relative to planetary waves (PWs) during the 2008-2009 major stratospheric sudden wam1ing (SSW). Just prior to SSW occurrence, widespread westward propagating GWs are found along the vortex's edge and associated predominantly with major topographical features and strong near-surface winds. Momentum forcing due to GWs surpasses PW forcing in the upper stratosphere and tends to decelerate the polar westerly jet in excess of 30 m/s/d. With SSW onset, PWs dominate the momentum forcing, providing decelerative effects in excess of 50 m/s/d throughout the upper polar stratosphere. GWs related to topography become less widespread largely due to incipient wind reversal as the vortex starts to elongate. During the SSW maturation and early recovery, the polar vortex eventually splits and both wave signatures and forcing greatly subside. Nonetheless, during SSW, westward and eastward propagating GWs are found in the polar region and may be generated in situ by flow adjustment processes in the stratosphere or by secondary GW breaking. The simulated large-scale features agree well with those resolved in satellite observations and analysis products.
Limpasuvan, Varavut↗
Slow Solar Wind: Observations and Modeling
While it is certain that the fast solar wind originates from coronal holes, where and how the slow solar wind (SSW) is formed remains an outstanding question in solar physics even in the post-SOHO era. The quest for the SSW origin forms a major objective for the planned future missions such as the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus. Nonetheless, results from spacecraft data, combined with theoretical modeling, have helped to investigate many aspects of the SSW. Fundamental physical properties of the coronal plasma have been derived from spectroscopic and imaging remote-sensing data and in situ data, and these results have provided crucial insights for a deeper understanding of the origin and acceleration of the SSW. Advanced models of the SSW in coronal streamers and other structures have been developed using 3D MHD and multi-fluid equations.
Abbo, L.↗
Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.
Chao, W. C.↗
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations
The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.
Charlton, Andrew J.↗
The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe
The salience of nonlinearities in the Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. Central Pacific El Niño (CP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 2, while Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1, though these nonlinearities become statistically robust only after more than 45 events are considered. This leads to a difference in the morphology of SSW events preferentially forced by each ENSO flavor. While the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric response is little different between EP and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events, the tropospheric subpolar negative North Atlantic Oscillation response is stronger for CP events. Other nonlinearities are even less salient: there is no indication of any nonlinearities in the wave driving between moderate EP EN and extreme EP EN, nor between EN and La Niña (LN). However in approximately 15% of the integrations within our ensemble, there is no difference in SSW frequency between EN and LN, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for both EN and LN, as has occurred over the past 60 years, can occur by chance. The intra-ensemble variability in LN SSW frequency can be related back to intra-ensemble variability in the tropospheric response to LN.
Arctic↗
Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Full Scale HEPA Filter Encapsulation in Ultra-High-Performance Grout - Proof of Concept
The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) currently being constructed to treat radioactive waste, includes vitrification facilities for both the high-level waste (HLW) and low activity waste (LAW) fractions. Operation of the WTP will produce contaminated high-efficiency particulate air filters (HEPA), as part of the solid secondary waste (SSW) stream. The HEPA filters receive off-gas from the vessel vent header and primary off-gas treatment system in LAW Facility and remove particulate contaminants including 99 Tc and 129 I salts. The current disposal method for HEPA filters is encapsulation in metal containers using cementitious material (CM) and disposal in the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). Results from the 2017 IDF Performance Assessment (PA) WRPS (2018) demonstrated that while compliance is maintained for the 1000 year compliance period mandated by DOE O 435.1 and its accompanying manual, release of constituents from the HEPA filters result in exceedance of the performance objective imposed as the groundwater regulatory limit at later times. For example, at about 1500 years post-closure, solid secondary waste (SSW), including HEPA filters is predicted to become a dominant contributor to 99 Tc release and over the 10,000-year sensitivity analysis period, SSW is the dominant contributor of 129 I release to the groundwater. The estimated release could potentially be reduced if the HEPA filters are not compacted and waste containers could be distributed throughout a large space, thereby diluting the contaminant release. Additionally, a better cementitious material could be used to encapsulate the HEPA filters. One alternative method for disposal of contaminated HEPA filters is encapsulation of the filters in ultra high-performance grout (UHPG). UHPG is a variation of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) is commonly used in the prestressed concrete industry for large structural members. Recent studies of UHPG show it has excellent properties for containing radionuclides such as 99 Tc and 129 I Nichols and Kaplan (2021). This report presents the results of the first attempt to encapsulate a clean, full-size HEPA filter in UHPG and evaluate the effectiveness of the immobilization process and final waste form. A full-scale proof-of-concept simulated waste form was prepared by encapsulating a HEPA filter in a 110-gallon stainless steel (SS) drum using UHPG. A change from Type I/II PC to Type 1L PLC was made after American Rock Products informed the team that they would no longer be using Type I/II by the end of 2024 and the northwest was phasing out Type I/II PC overall. Type I/II PC used in previous studies of UHPG for encapsulation (Nichols and Kaplan 2021). After the UHPG was cured both the scaled mockup and the full-scale simulated waste forms were sectioned for visual examination. UHPG completely encapsulated the filters and bonded to the external surfaces of materials comprising the filters. No cracks were observed in the sectioned waste forms.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT)
Efforts concentrated on development and implementation of the SolarSoft (SSW) data analysis system. From an EIT analysis perspective, this system was designed to facilitate efficient reuse and conversion of software developed for Yohkoh/SXT and to take advantage of a large existing body of software developed by the SDAC, Yohkoh, and SOHO instrument teams. Another strong motivation for this system was to provide an EIT analysis environment which permits coordinated analysis of EIT data in conjunction with data from important supporting instruments, including Yohkoh/SXT and the other SOHO coronal instruments; CDS, SUMER, and LASCO. In addition, the SSW system will support coordinated EIT/TRACE analysis (by design) when TRACE data is available; TRACE launch is currently planned for March 1998. Working with Jeff Newmark, the Chianti software package (K.P. Dere et al) and UV /EUV data base was fully integrated into the SSW system to facilitate EIT temperature and emission analysis.
Lemen, J. R.↗
The Evolution of the Stratopause During the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses
Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data show the polar stratopause, usually higher than and separated from that at midlatitudes, dropping from <55-60 to near 30 km, and cooling dramatically in January 2006 during a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). After a nearly isothermal period, a cool stratopause reforms near 75 km in early February, then drops to <55 km and warms. The stratopause is separated in longitude as well as latitude, with lowest temperatures in the transition regions between higher and lower stratopauses. Operational assimilated meteorological analyses, which are not constrained by data at stratopause altitude, do not capture a secondary temperature maximum that overlies the stratopause or the very high stratopause that reforms after the SSW; they underestimate the stratopause altitude variation during the SSW. High-quality daily satellite temperature measurements are invaluable in improving our understanding of stratopause evolution and its representation in models and assimilation systems.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of the Stratospheric Wave Events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, and Their Influence on the Troposphere
Stratospheric wave events and major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are well captured in high-resolution global forecasts out to 10 days. Tropospheric influences of SSW include statistically significant shifts in the storm tracks and associated surface temperature and precipitation pattern changes. Since these events can in turn influence the troposphere on time scales of 30-60 days the ability to predict these events and the subsequent long-term response on time scales beyond 10 days is of interest. Here we examine the prediction of stratospheric wave events and their evolution using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) system. This is a recently released subseasonal to seasonal forecast system, GEOS-S2S version 2.1. Compared to GMAO's previous system, the new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model of the cryosphere, includes additional interactive aerosol model components, and the ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results are based on a comprehensive series of hindcasts starting from the year 2000. They show that while the S2S system is not as accurate at 10 days in forecasting major SSW events as the NASA GMAO Forward Processing system, it can usefully predict stratospheric anomalies out to 20 days and the subsequent stratospheric/tropospheric evolution beyond 30 days.
Coy, L.↗