Infrasound Detection, Geolocation, and Yield Estimate of the May 2026 Blue Origin New Glenn Static-Fire Explosion
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Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Labora↗
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Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors
Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
w22_laser-radiography: Laser-Based MeV Radiography [Slides]
X-ray sources based on high-power short pulse lasers have unique advantages over conventional sources, like small spot size, flexible configuration, and tailorable spectra. Development of these sources will allow LANL to fulfill an urgent need to deploy flexible, compact, x-ray sources for static and dynamic radiography at our firing sites and facilities such as pRad and U1a. Our IC allocation supports the development of a predictive modeling capability of these laser-based sources.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
w22_laser_radiography - Laser-Based MeV Radiography
This project seeks to develop novel x-ray sources based on high-power short-pulse lasers with unique advantages, including small spot size, flexible configuration, and tailorable spectra. Kinetic plasma simulations using the VPIC particle in cell code will be performed to support the R&D goals of this project. If successful, this effort will allow LANL to deploy flexible, compact x-ray sources for static tomographic radiography and dynamic multi-axis radiography at our firing sites and facilities such as pRad and U1a. The higher resolution, shorter pulse duration, and tunability of our proposed sources will enable new applications in the weapons program and broader scientific community. This effort advances the LANL FY22 Strategic Investment Plan priority of “[r]adiographic tools for dynamic and static imaging with improved spatial and temporal resolution, sensitivity, and dose.”
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Deployment of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization to Minimize Heat Rate During Ramping for Coal Power Plants (Final Technical Report)
Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm
A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.
Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
Dynamic infrared gas analysis from longleaf pine fuel beds burned in a wind tunnel: observation of phenol in pyrolysis and combustion phases
Pyrolysis is the first step in a series of chemical and physical processes that produce flammable organic gases from wildland fuels that can result in a wildland fire. We report results using a new time-resolved Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) method that correlates the measured FTIR spectrum with an infrared thermal image sequence, enabling the identification and quantification of gases within different phases of the fire process. The flame from burning fuel beds composed of pine needles (Pinus palustris) and mixtures of sparkleberry, fetterbush, and inkberry plants was the natural heat source for pyrolysis. Extractive gas samples were analyzed and identified in both static and dynamic modes synchronized to thermal infrared imaging: a total of 29 gases were identified including small alkanes, alkenes, aldehydes, nitrogen compounds, and aromatics, most previously measured by FTIR in wildland fires. This study presents one of the first identifications of phenol associated with both pre-combustion and combustion phases using ca. 1 Hz temporal resolution. Preliminary results indicate ~2.5× greater phenol emissions from sparkleberry and inkberry compared to fetterbush, with differing temporal profiles.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Rotating Detonation Combustion for Gas Turbines: Modeling and System Synthesis to Exceed 65% Efficiency Goal (Phase II)
As of May 2019, all RDE test hardware and test operations were completed for this program. Over 700 hot fire tests were conducted at 4 facilities with 7 RDE assemblies, with the data available for future analysis. In particular, measured static and dynamic pressure and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provided basis for pressure gain combustion (PGC) analysis of the Engineering Scale RDE. It was demonstrated via measurements and CFD that a carefully designed diffuser can recover some total pressure of the highly oscillatory RDE exhaust. In general, the isolator/injector is largest contributor of pressure losses; however a low loss design was demonstrated that improves significantly on previous natural-gas/air RDEs. Also, a tailored injector and mixing technique was demonstrated that allowed NG-air RDE operation with overall equivalence ratio of less than 0.6. CFD models by AR, the UofM and Purdue University were extensively used throughout the program to refine diffuser design for improved pressure recovery, to simulate injection and mixing, to estimate turbine interaction, to estimate combustor pressure gain anchored with test data and to provide input to other design and analytical tasks. CFD analyses were completed for many of the configurations tested at Purdue with the 13.4” RDE including the shark fin and low area ratio isolators. Results were compared favorably to available hot fire test particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements and wave speeds. The results of these CFD analyses suggest a modest pressure gain of 33% with a sufficiently low area ratio isolator. A thermodynamic power plant system model was set up which utilizes an RDE combustor. The performance of the RDE combustor module was scaled based on measurements from the Engineering Scale RDE tests with low loss injector and tailored fuel flow. This combined model indicates potential for significant plant efficiency improvement. The successful tailored fuel injection test result with lower than .6 equivalence ratio has implication that a power plant can use a RDE combustor configuration where all the air flows through the combustion zone thereby not requiring a bypass mixer. In this configuration, the results of the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant system indicate net efficiency of 66.4%.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Climate Impacts on U.S. Electric Sector Evolution and Water Use Under Varying Market Futures: Are Some Energy Technologies and Regions More Affected by Climate Than Others?
Climate impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the U.S. power system. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are very efficient under cooler and wetter conditions but can be more vulnerable under warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies are essentially 'drought-proof' but have other reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector market futures in the U.S. could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), for twenty unique future climate-water conditions modeled through 2050. The electric sector impacts of these climate-water futures are then evaluated by the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) electricity capacity expansion model. To explore a breadth of possible electricity market futures, four electricity sector scenarios are considered to represent different carbon emission and water usage conditions: (1) business-as-usual, (2) CO2 cap, (3) CO2 cap with high renewable energy costs and extended nuclear lifetimes, and (4) continued coal reliance that maintains the existing coal fleet through 2050. Thus, we examine 84 possible futures in total when including a static climate representation of each market scenario. Results indicate that U.S. electric sector responds to climate change by constructing a combination of gas-fired and low-carbon generating sources, and the balance between technologies are determined by fuel prices, technology costs and policy. The cost for power sector to respond to climate change are generally proportional to the costs of electricity system components, while the relative sensitivity and vulnerability to climate pressures will vary across different generating technologies and different regions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
MHz-rate Laser Spectroscopic Instrument for Reacting Flow Composition and Temperature Measurements inside Rotating Detonation Engines (RDEs)
Rotating Detonation Engine (RDE) is a concept with the potential of realizing a pressure gain architecture that will lead to improved efficiency in power generation and propulsion systems. However, there are many questions on stable operation and effectively recovering flow such that it may be used in power production. To this end, a Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectrometer (TDLAS) was developed which targets H2O at two wavelengths for resolving composition and static temperature of the reacting medium within an RDE combustion channel. Coupling this information with velocity measurements, the total pressure may be resolved. Preliminary results from application of the sensor to hydrogen fired Aerojet Rocketdyne engine test are discussed.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Buoyant Plume Dynamics During Wildland Fires
Heterogeneous forest canopies can generate complex turbulent structures, but in the presence of a fire plume, these interactions are not fully understood. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy heterogeneity on buoyant plume dynamics resulting from surface thermal anomalies representing wildland fires, utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) was employed to simulate six canopy configurations: no canopy, homogeneous canopy, external plume-edge canopy, internal plume-edge canopy, 100 m gap canopy, and 200 m gap canopy. Each configuration was analyzed with and without a static surface heat flux patch of 5000 W ∙ m -2 , resulting in a resting buoyant plume. Simulations were conducted under three crosswind speeds: 0, 5, and 10 m ∙ s -1 . Results show that canopy structure significantly modifies plume behavior, mean flow, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets. Plume updraft speed and tilt varied with canopy configuration and crosswind speed. Horizontal pressure gradients associated with plume-atmosphere interaction were modified based on the canopy configuration, resulting in varying crosswind speed reductions at the plume region. Strong momentum absorption was observed above the canopy for the crosswind cases, with the greatest enhancement in the gap canopies. Momentum injection from below the canopy due to the heat source was also observed, resulting in plume structure modulation based on canopy configuration. TKE was found to be the largest in the gap canopy configurations. TKE budget analysis revealed that buoyant production dominated over shear production. At the center of the heat patch, the gap canopy configurations showed enhanced buoyancy within the gap. These results improve our knowledge of fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions that can inform fire models on the impacts of canopy heterogeneity on plume dynamics and ember ejections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2
The climate response to biomass burning emissions from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season is estimated from two 30-member ensembles using CESM2: one of which incorporates observed wildfire emissions and one that does not. In response to the fires, an increase in biomass aerosol burdens across the southern hemisphere is simulated through late 2019 and early 2020, accompanied by an enhancement of cloud albedo, particularly in the southeastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. In turn, the surface cools, the boundary layer dries, and the moist static energy of the low-level flow into the equatorial Pacific is reduced. In response, the intertropical convergence zone migrates northward and sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region cools, with coupled feedbacks amplifying the cooling. A subsequent multiyear ensemble mean cooling of the tropical Pacific is simulated through the end of 2021, suggesting an important contribution to the 2020–2022 strong La Niña events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Annual carbon sequestration and loss rates under altered hydrology and fire regimes in southeastern USA pocosin peatlands
Peatlands drained for agriculture or forestry are susceptible to the rapid release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through enhanced microbial decomposition and increased frequency of deep peat fires. We present evidence that rewetting drained subtropical wooded peatlands (STWPs) along the southeastern USA coast, primarily pocosin bogs, could prevent significant carbon (C) losses. To quantify GHG emissions and storage from drained and rewetted pocosin we used eddy covariance techniques, the first such estimates that have been applied to this major bog type, on a private drained (PD) site supplemented by static chamber measurements at PD and Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Net ecosystem exchange measurements showed that the loss was 21.2 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 (1 Mg = 10 6 g) in the drained pocosin. Under a rewetted scenario, where the annual mean water table depth (WTD) decreased from 60 to 30 cm, the C loss was projected to fall to 2 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , a 94% reduction. If the WTD was 20 cm, the peatlands became a net carbon sink (–3.3 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 ). Hence, net C reductions could reach 24.5 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , and when scaled up to the 4000 ha PD site nearly 100,000 Mg CO 2 year –1 of creditable C could be amassed. We conservatively estimate among the 0.75 million ha of southeastern STWPs, between 450 and 770 km 2 could be rewet, reducing annual GHG emissions by 0.96–1.6 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) of CO 2 , through suppressed microbial decomposition and 1.7–2.8 Tg via fire prevention, respectively. Despite covering <0.01% of US land area, rewetting drained pocosin can potentially provide 2.4% of the annual CO 2 nationwide reduction target of 0.18 Pg (1 Pg = 10 15 g). Finally, suggesting pocosin restoration can contribute disproportionately to the US goal of achieving net-zero emission by 2050.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Dictionary Learning with Accumulator Neurons
The Locally Competitive Algorithm (LCA) uses local competition between non-spiking leaky integrator neurons to infer sparse representations, allowing for potentially real-time execution on massively parallel neuromorphic architectures such as Intel's Loihi processor. Here, we focus on the problem of inferring sparse representations from streaming video using dictionaries of spatiotemporal features optimized in an unsupervised manner for sparse reconstruction. Non-spiking LCA has previously been used to achieve unsupervised learning of spatiotemporal dictionaries composed of convolutional kernels from raw, unlabeled video. We demonstrate how unsupervised dictionary learning with spiking LCA (\hbox{S-LCA}) can be efficiently implemented using accumulator neurons, which combine a conventional leaky-integrate-and-fire (\hbox{LIF}) spike generator with an additional state variable that is used to minimize the difference between the integrated input and the spiking output. We demonstrate dictionary learning across a wide range of dynamical regimes, from graded to intermittent spiking, for inferring sparse representations of both static images drawn from the CIFAR database as well as video frames captured from a DVS camera. On a classification task that requires identification of the suite from a deck of cards being rapidly flipped through as viewed by a DVS camera, we find essentially no degradation in performance as the LCA model used to infer sparse spatiotemporal representations migrates from graded to spiking. We conclude that accumulator neurons are likely to provide a powerful enabling component of future neuromorphic hardware for implementing online unsupervised learning of spatiotemporal dictionaries optimized for sparse reconstruction of streaming video from event based DVS cameras.
artificial intelligence↗
Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing
The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include offline modules, strings, and inverters; system shutdown; arc faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. Previous papers and presentations have focused on the development of the test method using a benchtop prototype. This presentation covers the early results of C-AST aging of static and dynamic specimens.
balance of systems↗
iFair: Achieving Fairness in the Allocation of Scarce Resources for Senior Health Care
Efficient resource allocation is crucial in many domains, particularly in senior care, where assigning resources to older adults must consider uncertainties associated with vulnerable populations. In collaboration with Senior Health Facilities (SHFs) and domain experts, this paper presents iFair, a novel framework designed to assist decision-makers in equitably allocating scarce resources to older adults. iFair was prototyped in the context of ongoing work on a data exchange platform, CAREDEX, used for enhancing older adults' resilience during disasters. A key novelty of iFair focuses on aligning resident preferences with resources in urgent situations, expediting care, and enhancing task efficiency. We integrate static and dynamic environmental data, including facility layouts and sensor data, with detailed resident profiles to cater to the individual needs and preferences of residents. While our framework primarily focuses on allocation within facilities, it also extends to a regional scale to support the planning and transfer of seniors to mutual aid facilities. Our experiments adapt data from a real SHF to emulate resource allocation in an emergency fire evacuation setting and highlight the delicate balance that decision-makers can achieve between efficiency and fairness.
Kenne, Modeste Mefenya↗
Development of Fixtures and Methods to Assess the Durability of Balance of Systems Components
The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well studied, but the consequences include offline modules, strings, and inverters; system shutdown; arc faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were, therefore, examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. In this study, unused field-vintage specimens are examined using a benchtop prototype fixture to identify the most influential environmental stressors on BoS components as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. The prototype fixture was used to develop a perturbation capability for future use in the combined-accelerated stress testing chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature (~100 °C from ~40 °C) and a different failure mode (arcing at the metal pins rather than overheating of the fuse filament) were observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (measured for static specimens, with failure occurring in the fuses) to 15 A (for tests with mechanical perturbation, with failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow for failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical and electron microscopy). Chemical composition analysis included energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Success Path Method: Conformance with Safety Management Systems
All industrial facilities deal with safety hazards such as equipment failures, chemical and toxic releases, and fires and explosions just to name a few. A disciplined framework for managing the integrity of operating systems and processes that handle hazardous substances by applying good design principles, engineering, and operating practices is called process safety. The goal of such framewoks is to prevent the release of energy or material that could cause harm to people or damage to equipment and/or environment. Process safety covers all aspects of facility operation also including design, maintenance, and human and organizational factors that could possibly have effect on process safety. As it will be seen from the discussion below, process safety is just one of the pieces of the much bigger matter, a safety culture. Many industries have long recognized the importance of safety culture in their day-to-day operation. Although the definition of safety culture can slightly differ from organization to organization, in general, a safety culture is how things are done to demonstrate a commitment to safety by everyone involved. An organization acquires safety culture over time as the product of individual and group values, actions, and behaviors toward overall safety. It is important to note that safety culture should not be viewed as some static state that an organization wants to reach. It is more like a constantly evolving level of “how things are done when nobody is watching.” Safety culture is an inherent characteristic of an organization, it is always present, but the level can range on a continuum from undesirable to desirable or more commonly used, from negative to positive. An example for an undesirable, negative safety culture would be a company in which accidents resulting in harm (physical and/or emotional) of its employees, equipment or surrounding environment and community occur frequently. At the other end of the spectrum would be a company in which such accidents are rare or do not occur at all (desired or positive safety culture). Every company/industry exists somewhere within this spectrum.
42 ENGINEERING↗