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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Quantitative Evaluation of MD/HD Vehicle Electrification using Statistical Data

This paper presents a wide-ranging analysis of Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrification by means of developing a framework tool which uses a quantitative method of estimating electric vehicle energy consumption and appropriate charging considerations. The Fleet DNA composite statistics on real-world driving behavior is used to evaluate feasible or market-ready battery electric vehicle (BEV) technologies in medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) applications. In the paper, ten representative Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrifications have been evaluated as a function of various service coverages, including applications in port drayage tractors, refuse trucks, delivery trucks, buses, and bucket trucks. The results indicate significant energy savings and fuel cost savings across all MD/HD vehicle electrifications. The majority of MD BEVs, with the exception of Class 3 bucket trucks, achieve better than a 5-year payback with 50–75% service coverage. For HD BEVs, with the exception of the Class 8 port drayage tractors, the 90% service coverage results in a 10-year or longer payback time, while the 50% service coverage yields a 7–8 year payback. Class 8 port drayage tractors should achieve payback in no more than a 3.5 years with 50–75% service coverage. Thus, the analysis indicates a highly feasible potential for Class 3-6 MD vehicles to be electrified, and feasible opportunities for electrification in Class 7-8 HD short-distance applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical way to regularize unfolding of sharply varying spectra with low data statistics

Unfolding is a well-established tool in particle physics. However, a naive application of the standard regularization techniques to unfold the momentum spectrum of protons ejected in the process of negative muon nuclear capture led to a result exhibiting unphysical artifacts. A finite data sample limited the range in which unfolding can be performed, thus introducing a cutoff. A sharply falling “true” distribution led to low data statistics near the cutoff, which exacerbated the regularization bias and produced an unphysical spike in the resulting spectrum. An improved approach has been developed to address these issues and is illustrated using a toy model. The approach uses full Poisson likelihood of data, and produces a continuous, physically plausible, unfolded distribution. Here, the new technique has a broad applicability since sharply falling spectra are common.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Wave Classification Statistical Data for US Waters

Wave statistics computed using output from the NOAA WWIII hindcast simulations, spanning thirty years from 1980 to 2009. The statistics are computed based on frequency-directional variance density spectra every three hours for 1951 locations in US waters.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical data analysis of x-ray spectroscopy data enabled by neural network accelerated Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Parallel Hybrid Metaheuristics with Distributed Intensification and Diversification for Large-scale Optimization in Big Data Statistical Analysis

Important insights into many problems that are traditionally analyzed via statistical models can be obtained by re-formulating and evaluating within a large-scale optimization framework. The theoretical underpinnings of the statistical model often shift the goal of the solution space traversal from a traditional search for a single optimal solution to a traversal with the purpose of yielding a set of high quality, independent solutions. We examine statistical frameworks with astronomical solution spaces where the independence requirement constitutes a significant additional challenge for standard optimization methodologies. We design a hybrid metaheuristic with specialized intensification and diversification protocols in the base search algorithm. We extend our algorithm to the high-performance-computing realm using the Stampede2 supercomputer. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm to utilize multiple processors to collaboratively hill climb, broadcast messages to one another regarding landscape characteristics, diversify across the solution landscape, and request aid in climbing particularly difficult peaks.

Cho, Wendy K. Tam↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

9Cr steel visualization and predictive modeling

The goals of this work were to develop tools to visualize and characterize materials information, to explore new alloy compositions and/or processing, to better predict tensile strength and other mechanical properties. The 9–12 wt% Cr (9Cr) steel test data were compiled from several sources. About 3000 records with 30 predictor variables represent 82 unique steel alloy compositions, variations of thermo-mechanical processing steps and temperatures (homogenization, normalization and tempering cycles), test conditions and outcomes. Detailed data processing steps such as visualization and exploratory analysis, including univariate and bivariate analysis, different clustering techniques used to segment the data, statistical post-hoc analysis to verify significance of the findings, feature engineering to identify predictors of importance, and predictive modeling with cross-validation were performed. The outcome of analysis at each step was reviewed in the context of the domain knowledge of this class of steel, to see if there were underlying physical mechanisms that explain statistical relationships. Data analytics techniques and their parameters were fine-tuned to facilitate interpretation of the results as aligned with the insights from domain experts. Here, the ensemble predictive modeling using Random Forest regressor and post-hoc means comparison corroborated domain knowledge on the role of Co which is known to increase strength of steel alloys through solid-solution strengthening and to affect diffusion of alloying elements and precipitates. Alloys with Co content of 0.7–8 wt% had significantly higher mean strength than the ones without (while having Cr locked within 10–11 wt% range in either group and keeping other compositional element ratios fixed). End products of the computational techniques exploration are presented as the tools that can be used in iterative workflow of materials development and testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

How to Host An Effective Data Competition: Statistical Advice for Competition Design and Analysis

Data competitions rely on real-time leaderboards to rank competitor entries and stimulate algorithm improvement. While such competitions have become quite popular and prevalent, particularly in supervised learning formats, their implementations by the host are highly variable. Without careful planning, a supervised learning competition is vulnerable to overfitting, where the winning solutions are so closely tuned to the particular set of provided data that they cannot generalize to the underlying problem of interest to the host. This paper outlines some important considerations for strategically designing relevant and informative data sets to maximize the learning outcome from hosting a competition based on our experience. It also describes a postcompetition analysis that enables robust and efficient assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of solutions from different competitors, as well as greater understanding of the regions of the input space that are well-solved. The postcompetition analysis, which complements the leaderboard, uses exploratory data analysis and generalized linear models (GLMs). The GLMs not only expand the range of results we can explore, they also provide more detailed analysis of individual subquestions including similarities and differences between algorithms across different types of scenarios, universally easy or hard regions of the input space, and different learning objectives. When coupled with a strategically planned data generation approach, the methods provide richer and more informative summaries to enhance the interpretation of results beyond just the rankings on the leaderboard. The methods are illustrated with a recently completed competition to evaluate algorithms capable of detecting, identifying, and locating radioactive materials in an urban environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantum statistics and spacetime topology: Quantum surgery formulas

To formulate the universal constraints of quantum statistics data of generic long-range entangled quantum systems, we introduce the geometric-topology surgery theory on spacetime manifolds where quantum systems reside, cutting and gluing the associated quantum amplitudes, specifically in 2+1 and 3+1 spacetime dimensions. First, we introduce the fusion data for worldline and worldsheet operators capable of creating anyonic excitations of particles and strings, well-defined in gapped states of matter with intrinsic topological orders. Second, we introduce the braiding statistics data of particles and strings, such as the geometric Berry matrices for particle–string Aharonov–Bohm, 3-string, 4-string, or multi-string adiabatic loop braiding process, encoded by submanifold links, in the closed spacetime 3-manifolds and 4-manifolds. Third, we derive new “quantum surgery” formulas and constraints, analogous to Verlinde formula associating fusion and braiding statistics data via spacetime surgery, essential for defining the theory of topological orders, 3d and 4d TQFTs and potentially correlated to bootstrap boundary physics such as gapless modes, extended defects, 2d and 3d conformal field theories or quantum anomalies. This article is meant to be an extended and further detailed elaboration of our previous work Wang, Wen and Yau (2016) [1] and Chapter 6 of Wang (2015) [2]. Our theory applies to general quantum theories and quantum mechanical systems, also applicable to, but not necessarily requiring the quantum field theory description.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗