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At least 19 records

Numerical Modeling of CO2 Sequestration within a Five-Spot Well Pattern in the Morrow B Sandstone of the Farnsworth Hydrocarbon Field: Comparison of the TOUGHREACT, STOMP-EOR, and GEM Simulators

The objectives of this study were (1) to assess the fate and impact of CO2 injected into the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) through numerical non-isothermal reactive transport modeling, and (2) to compare the performance of three major reactive solute transport simulators, TOUGHREACT, STOMP-EOR, and GEM, under the same input conditions. The models were based on a quarter of a five-spot well pattern where CO2 was injected on a water-alternating-gas schedule for the first 25 years of the 1000 year simulation. The reservoir pore fluid consisted of water with or without petroleum. The results of the models have numerous broad similarities, such as the pattern of reservoir cooling caused by the injected fluids, a large initial pH drop followed by gradual pH neutralization, the long-term persistence of an immiscible CO2 gas phase, the continuous dissolution of calcite, very small decreases in porosity, and the increasing importance over time of carbonate mineral CO2 sequestration. The models differed in their predicted fluid pressure evolutions; amounts of mineral precipitation and dissolution; and distribution of CO2 among immiscible gas, petroleum, formation water, and carbonate minerals. The results of the study show the usefulness of numerical simulations in identifying broad patterns of behavior associated with CO2 injection, but also point to significant uncertainties in the numerical values of many model output parameters.

STOMP↗

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: LLBG-200-W B Vadose Zone Model

The objectives of the vadose modeling for the updated Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) are to simulate the flow and transport of water and radionuclide releases from the surface to the water table and to provide radionuclide transfer rates to the CA saturated zone model (CP-57037, Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model, Version 8.3). Water additions include natural recharge and water discharged to the ground as a result of industrial processes associated with Hanford Site operations. Contaminant sources include radionuclides in water discharged to the ground during operations and radionuclides disposed “dry” in solid waste burial grounds or other means. The following 16 radionuclides were selected for this modeling effort: carbon-14 (C-14), chlorine-36 (Cl-36), tritium (H-3), iodine-129 (I-129), neptunium-237 (Np-237), rhenium-187 (Re-187), strontium-90 (Sr-90), technetium-99 (Tc-99), uranium-232 (U-232), uranium-233 (U-233), uranium-234 (U-234), uranium-235 (U-235), uranium-236 (U-236), uranium-238 (U-238), radium-226 (Ra-226), and thorium-230 (Th-230). The simulation time starts in 1943 and ends at 12070, which is 10,000 years after assumed Hanford Site closure in 2070. The parallel version of the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP 1 ) simulator, officially named the exascale Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (eSTOMP), is used to simulate flow and transport for the vadose models. The documentation for the STOMP code is comprehensive. The theoretical and numerical approaches applied in the STOMP code are documented in a published theory guide (PNNL-12030, STOMP Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Version 2.0 Theory Guide). The code has undergone a rigorous verification procedure against analytical solutions, laboratory-scale experiments, and field-scale demonstrations. The application guide (PNNL-11216, STOMP Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Application Guide) provides instructive examples in the application of the code to classical groundwater problems. The user’s guide (PNNL-15782, STOMP: Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases Version 4.0: User’s Guide) describes the general use, input file formatting, compilation, and execution of the code. The primary output of the vadose zone modeling is radionuclide transfer rates to the groundwater for input into the saturated zone model. The rates will be summed over the 100 by 100 m saturated zone model grid cells that fall within the vadose zone model source domain.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: Generic Aquifer Component Development and Testing

The Generic Aquifer Model calculates the concentrations of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 surrounding a leaking legacy well. The Generic Aquifer model can also estimate the size of an “impact plume” where concentration changes exceed user-specified thresholds. The model is a component of NRAP-Open-IAM, an open-source Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The input parameters were selected to cover a wide range of groundwater aquifers and leakage rates. The generic aquifer model was developed using a generative adversarial deep learning network, trained using a large synthetic dataset of STOMP multiphase flow simulations. The deep learning model predictions of dissolved salt and dissolved CO 2 in the aquifer compare well to the original STOMP simulation results. The extent of aquifer impacted by leaking CO 2 or brine is calculated using a user-defined mass fraction threshold. The aquifer impact volumes calculated based on STOMP simulation results compare well to those calculated based on the deep learning model. In a provided python script, gridded observation results from the generic aquifer component of NRAP-Open-IAM are converted to HDF5 format files for monitoring design with the DREAM code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

STOMPX

STOMPX is an OpenMPI implementation of selected operational modes of the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases numerical simulator. STOMPX is designed to execute with both shared- and distributed-memory computer architectures. This implementation of the simulator is designed to solve the same problems as the STOMP simulator, but taking advantage of multiple processor execution through the OpenMPI language and libraries. The STOMP simulator is written in Fortran 90 and operates on single processors or shared-memory computer architectures. The STOMPX simulator extends execution to distributed-memory computer architectures, including super computers

White, Mark↗

Modeling supercritical CO 2 flow and mineralization in reactive host rocks with PFLOTRAN v7.0

Understanding the flow and reactivity of CO 2 injected into geological reservoirs is important for many subsurface applications including secure geologic carbon storage (GCS), critical mineral extraction, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Traditionally, subsurface CO 2 injection for GCS applications has focused on geologic formations with favorable subsurface configurations for CO 2 migration and trapping through non-reactive mechanisms such as structural, solubility, and petrophysical trapping. Recently, CO 2 -reactive rocks such as mafic and ultramafic basalts have been investigated for their potential to react with injected CO 2 in situ to simultaneously dissolve host rock minerals and mineralize CO 2 as carbonates. Engineering rapid CO 2 mineralization in the subsurface is attractive because of the increased density of stored CO 2 , the additional safety factors associated with solidification, and the potential to extract valuable critical minerals. Here we present recent developments in the parallel flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model coupled CO 2 -brine flow and reactive transport for a wide range of injection and production applications involving reactive CO 2 -brine systems. These developments are based on the well established and trusted CO 2 flow capabilities in the STOMP-CO 2 simulator. New capabilities added to PFLOTRAN include new CO 2 -brine equations of state with optional thermal coupling, several new constitutive relationships like capillary pressure smoothing and scanning path hysteresis, a fully implicit well model, and native linkage with PFLOTRAN's well-established reactive transport libraries. A series of benchmarks between PFLOTRAN and STOMP-CO 2 verify the newly developed CO 2 -brine flow capabilities. Demonstrations of coupled CO 2 -brine flow modeling and reactive transport show how CO 2 mineralization can be engineered in reactive host rocks. Finally, an example use case involving copper leaching by CO 2 and critical mineral extraction is presented to showcase the strengths of this new implementation. Several limitations still remain, including limited availability of field data to parameterize models. Future work should constrain the evolution of mineral surface area during mineralization and the temperature and/or pH dependence of geochemical reactions for specific systems of interest.

Critical Minerals↗

Reactive Transport Modeling of Anthropogenic Carbon Mineralization in Stacked Columbia River Basalt Reservoirs

Numerical simulation of CO2 storage in basalts and related reactive lithologies requires modeling complex, coupled hydrologic and chemical processes, including multi-phase flow and transport, partitioning of CO2 into the aqueous phase, and chemical interactions with aqueous fluids and rock minerals. We conducted reactive transport simulations of the Wallula pilot-scale CO2 injection into the flow tops of the Grande Ronde Basalt using our PNNL STOMP-CO2 simulator with the ECKEChem reactive module. Our mineralization simulation of the ~1,000 tons of injected CO2 into the interflow zones was based on the hydrologic transport model we previously developed. For this work, the simulations considered geochemical reactions involving the basalt components, precipitates, formation brine, and injected CO2. In our benchmark case, carbonate minerals precipitated, resulting in ~20% of the CO2 being mineralized in 10 years. Increasing the reaction rate of a single primary mineral phase (clinopyroxene) by an order of magnitude resulted in a carbon mineralization reaction extent of ~90% over the same time interval. Based on these initial sensitivity analysis results, it is clear that a thorough understanding of primary mineral dissolution rates is required for accurately predicting long-term fate and transport of injected CO2 into basalt formations. Our reactive transport numerical simulations will be key components of commercial-scale CO2 storage operation permitting, de-risking, and optimization in mafic and ultramafic reservoirs.

Cao, Ruoshi↗

Generic Aquifer Component Training Dataset

Training dataset for the Generic Aquifer Component of NRAP-Open-IAM. Consists of the results of 62,500 STOMP-CO2 simulations of brine and CO2 leakage of varying rates and salinity into aquifers of varying thickness, depth, porosity, permeability, anisotropy and initial salinity. Described in report https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-32590.pdf

Aquifer Impact Model↗

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as an Innovative Energy Storage Technology for Fossil-Integrated Systems

Pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) provides around 95% of all utility-scale energy storage in the U.S. and globally. Additional deployment of PSH is hampered by excessively long permitting and commissioning requirements and is constrained to locations for which natural topography provides suitable elevation relief between the upper and lower reservoirs (the ΔH challenge). The purpose of this research was to evaluate Pumped-Storage Hydropower using Abandoned Underground Mines (PSH-AUM) as a means to solve the ΔH challenge and initiate the commercialization pathway for a promising new energy storage technology. Four primary tasks were conducted: Screening and ranking of candidate sites for project development; multiphase reservoir modeling to evaluate mine performance; techno-economic analysis and preliminary designs for PSH-AUM systems integrated with fossil-fuel power units; and stakeholder engagement to identify pathways to commercialization of this new technology. Key results were achieved in each of the four primary tasks. Candidate site screening determined that nearly 10,000 underground mines were spatially locatable, of which more than 100 sites appear suitable for integration with existing fossil power plants that are expected to remain in longer-term operation. Mine reservoir models were developed using PNNL’s STOMP simulator and parameterized using candidate site data to evaluate interactions with the surrounding groundwater system and confirm the potential for some mines to accommodate inflows and outflows on the order of 100 m3/s over 8-hour durations (1.6 GWh system) without excessive aqueous pressures. Techno-economic analysis resulted in a project cost optimization scheme to identify key sensitivities and the development of preliminary designs that can minimize overall costs of deployment. Finally, stakeholder engagement with industry, state government, and local economic development leaders confirmed the viability of PSH-AUM as a promising new technology. Our Phase I project results suggest that PSH-AUM technology has a domestic market potential on the order of $100+ Billion with ample space for technology development to commercialization within the next decade.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NRAP-Open-IAM Multisegmented Wellbore Reduced-Order Model: Improvement and Quality Assurance

The multisegmented wellbore model (MSW) semi-analytically estimates the amount of CO 2 and brine leakage from a leaking legacy well by segmenting it into intervals to simulate site-specific stratigraphic and hydrogeologic properties. The model is a component of the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), which was developed to perform risk assessment for geologic CO 2 storage. The new wellbore leakage model, which uses deep learning networks for a caprock segment, was developed to enhance the analytical MSW. The model was trained and validated using a synthetic data set of Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) multiphase flow simulations from various geological, well attribute, and operational conditions to ensure its quality. The results demonstrate that the model is more accurate than the existing model in predicting the transport of two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) through the well. This report provides a detailed explanation of the model development and quality assurance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulation of Chilled-water Injection at EGS Collab Testbed 2 using the GEOS simulation framework

This work seeks to model the chilled-water injection that occurred at EGS Collab Testbed 2 as part of experiment 3, using the open-source GEOS simulation framework. Modeling of this process, previously conducted using STOMP-GT, confirmed that thermal breakthrough was expected to occur during the chill water injection and may have been masked by strong Joule-Thompsons effects induced by large pressure drops between the fractures and the production wells. Building a GEOS numerical model of this process will allow to include additional physics. In fact, GEOS can model fully coupled thermo-poromechanical processes in fractured porous media and can be employed to model the process of artificially enhancing rock permeability by hydraulically fracturing the rocks. For example, the GEOS model could help understanding the dynamic nature of the EGS collab experiment 3 flow system. Since the limited time and resources do not allow for an extensive study, the focus is on building a baseline model of this process. As such, the main outcomes of this modelling efforts are listed below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GeoThermalCloud for EGS – An Open-source, User-friendly, Scalable AI Workflow for Modeling Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) offer a vast potential to expand the use of geothermal energy. Heat is extracted from this engineered system by injecting relatively cold water into subsurface fractures, which are in contact with hot dry rock, and brought back to surface through production wells. Creating EGS requires improving the natural permeability of hot crystalline rocks. In this short conference paper, we present a reproducible workflow for modeling EGS. Our workflow called the GeoThermalCloud (GTC) for EGS, leverages recent advances in machine learning, deep learning, and high-performance computing. This GTC framework is currently being made open-source, user-friendly, and reproducible through python scripts as well as Google Colab/Jupyter Notebooks. This GTC for EGS modeling scripts are made available at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS and will constantly be updated to cater for geothermal community. Current GTC framework provides scripts to train deep learning (DL) models for techno-economics and data worth analysis. The Geothermal Design Tool (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast and simplified multi-physics solver, is used to develop a database for training DL models. This short paper provides details on the scripts to curate, process, and train DL models. The scripts can easily be modified to train on databases generated by other popular open-source simulators such as PFLOTRAN, STOMP, TOUGH, and GEOSX or commercial software such as ResFrac and COMSOL.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Frictionless knowledge injection for few-shot learning

Cutting-edge machine learning methods often require large volumes of curated training data, precluding their use in national security problems with rare events in massive datasets. We present a method for incorporating abstract knowledge into models tailored for sparse data. A subject matter expert defines salient concepts using data examples, which are encoded in the model’s embedding space. Models are then trained to respect these concepts. This method enables knowledge injection, yielding effective models with limited labeled data and the ability to assess model sensitivity for subject matter expertise across the nonproliferation mission space, as demonstrated with Raman spectra analysis.

Stomps, Jordan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178114479)↗

Constraining the P 30 ( p , γ ) S 31 Reaction Rate in ONe Novae via the Weak, Low-Energy, β -Delayed Proton Decay of Cl 31

The 30 P(p,γ) 31 S reaction plays an important role in understanding the nucleosynthesis of A ≥ 30 nuclides in oxygen-neon novae. The Gaseous Detector with Germanium Tagging was used to measure 31 Cl β-delayed proton decay through the key J π = 3/2 + , 260-keV resonance. The intensity $I$$^{260}_{βp}$ = $8.3$$^{+1.2}_{–0.9}$ × 10 –6 represents the weakest β-delayed, charged-particle emission ever measured below 400 keV, resulting in a proton branching ratio of Γ p /Γ = $2.5$$^{+0.4}_{–0.3}$ × 10 –4 . Here, by combining this measurement with shell-model calculations for Γγ and past work on other resonances, the total 30 P(p,γ) 31 S rate has been determined with reduced uncertainty. The new rate has been used in hydrodynamic simulations to model the composition of nova ejecta, leading to a concrete prediction of 30 Si: 28 Si excesses in presolar nova grains and the calibration of nuclear thermometers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reno

Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Integrated Disposal Facility FY2011 Glass Testing Summary Report [Erratum]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was contracted by Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the engineered portion of the disposal facility (e.g., source term). Vitrifying the low-activity waste at Hanford is expected to generate over 1.6 x 10 5 m 3 of glass (Certa and Wells 2010). The volume of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) at Hanford is the largest in the DOE complex and is one of the largest inventories (approximately 8.9 x 10 14 Bq total activity) of long-lived radionuclides, principally 99 Tc (t 1/2 = 2.1 x 10 5 ), planned for disposal in a low-level waste (LLW) facility. Before the ILAW can be disposed, DOE must conduct a performance assessment (PA) for the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) that describes the long-term impacts of the disposal facility on public health and environmental resources. As part of the ILAW glass testing program PNNL is implementing a strategy, consisting of experimentation and modeling, in order to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the glass waste form in support of future IDF PAs. The purpose of this report is to summarize the progress made in fiscal year (FY) 2011 toward implementing the strategy with the goal of developing an understanding of the long-term corrosion behavior of low-activity waste glasses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SNM Radiation Signature Classification Using Different Semi-Supervised Machine Learning Models

The timely detection of special nuclear material (SNM) transfers between nuclear facilities is an important monitoring objective in nuclear nonproliferation. Persistent monitoring enabled by successful detection and characterization of radiological material movements could greatly enhance the nuclear nonproliferation mission in a range of applications. Supervised machine learning can be used to signal detections when material is present if a model is trained on sufficient volumes of labeled measurements. However, the nuclear monitoring data needed to train robust machine learning models can be costly to label since radiation spectra may require strict scrutiny for characterization. Therefore, this work investigates the application of semi-supervised learning to utilize both labeled and unlabeled data. As a demonstration experiment, radiation measurements from sodium iodide (NaI) detectors are provided by the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operating Scenarios (MINOS) venture at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as sample data. Anomalous measurements are identified using a method of statistical hypothesis testing. After background estimation, an energy-dependent spectroscopic analysis is used to characterize an anomaly based on its radiation signatures. In the absence of ground-truth information, a labeling heuristic provides data necessary for training and testing machine learning models. Supervised logistic regression serves as a baseline to compare three semi-supervised machine learning models: co-training, label propagation, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). In each case, the semi-supervised models outperform logistic regression, suggesting that unlabeled data can be valuable when training and demonstrating value in semi-supervised nonproliferation implementations.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗