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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Future projections of storm surge in Hurricane Katrina and sensitivity to meteorological forcing resolution

In this study, we investigated whether and how the storm surge induced by Hurricane Katrina could change if it occurs in a future warmer climate, and the sensitivity of the changes to atmospheric forcing resolution. Climate model simulations of Hurricane Katrina at 27 km, 4.5 km, and 3 km resolutions were used to drive storm surge simulations in historical and future climates using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. We found that peak surge height increased significantly in the future with all forcing resolutions. However, the future projection is 22% greater in the 3 km forcing, typical of regional climate models, compared to the 27 km forcing, typical of state-of-the-art global climate models. Additionally, the spatial extent of the future change is highly sensitive to forcing resolution, extending most broadly under the 27 km forcing. Furthermore, we found that storm surge duration decreases in the future with all forcing resolutions due to increasing TC translation speed and decreasing ocean lifetime. However, the future change in the surge duration is sensitive to the forcing resolution, decreasing by 31% in the 27 km forcing and 6% in the 3 km forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projecting U.S. coastal storm surge risks and impacts with deep learning

Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon’s rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence applications to natural hazard modeling suggest a new avenue for addressing this problem. We develop a deep learning storm surge model to efficiently estimate coastal surge risk in the United States from 900 000 synthetic TC events, accounting for projected changes in TC behavior and sea levels. The derived historical 100 year surge (the event with a 1% yearly exceedance probability) agrees well with historical observations and other modeling techniques. When coupled with an inundation model, we find that heightened TC intensities and sea levels by the end of the century result in a 50% increase in population at risk. Key findings include markedly heightened risk in Florida, and critical thresholds identified in Georgia and South Carolina.

RAFT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems

Based on the projected increase in hurricane landfall frequency on the middle to lower US east coast, we examined the crucial role of the estuarine wind field in exacerbating coastal flooding. A regionally refined atmospheric and two high-resolution hydrology and ocean models are integrated to provide plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and the associated flooding inside the Delaware Bay and River, a US mid-Atlantic estuary. Model results show that the hurricane propagation direction, estuarine geometry, remote surge from the open ocean, and direct nearshore upwind stress could magnify the flood magnitude. More specifically, inland-bound tracks that make landfall before reaching the mid-Atlantic coast produce a more significant surge within Delaware Bay than the shore-parallel tracks, where the estuarine wind direction plays the primary role in surge amplification. Ultimately, this study emphasized the need for integrated models to capture the nonlinear dynamics and interactions in flood hazard modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Method for Coupled Electromagnetic and Circuit Simulations to Evaluate Surge Arrester Performance in Protecting Equipment Against E1 HEMP

Surge arrester behavioral modeling for realistic systems embedded in an E1 high-altitude electromagnetic pulse environment inherently encompasses three interconnected complications: (1) the need to account for signal propagation across two domains, electromagnetics and electrical; (2) the need to include both linear and nonlinear circuit components in the analysis; and (3) the need to understand that the over-current and over-voltage mitigation performance is dependent not only on the properties of the surge arrester and protected load but also on the topology of the overall electrical network. This study presents a framework to address these challenges in a systematic manner to consider the effectiveness of protective measures for a common class of equipment in power generation facilities. Full-wave simulations were carried out to derive circuit-domain (i.e., lumped element–based) equivalent models for the excitation waveform and the physical components of the system. Then, these equivalent models were imported to a circuit solver and combined with a high-frequency surge arrester model to evaluate mitigation performance. The methodology outlined is general enough such that it can be applied for other electromagnetic interference problems that involve E2/E3 HEMP or microwave emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady aerodynamics of large-scale floating offshore wind turbines in surge motion

Unsteady aerodynamic loads significantly influence the design and wake flow field of floating offshore wind turbines, especially due to wave- or vibration-induced tower top motions triggering various unsteady phenomena. Recent studies show that increasing turbine sizes amplify unsteady aerodynamic effects, as their impact typically grows with rotor diameter. This work combines recent findings from experiments and simulations on model-scale FOWT aerodynamics with new numerical analyses of large-scale rotors, providing a comprehensive understanding of unsteady phenomena occurrence and impact. Numerical analyses of the IEA 15-MW and 22-MW rotors undergoing surge motions characterise the combined influence of motion-induced unsteady phenomena on rotor thrust. Results indicate that unsteady effects can reduce thrust force variations by up to 40% at realistic surge periods. These findings contrast with prior model-scale rotor investigations, attributed to the specialised design of the model rotors. Comparisons between numerical methods - the dynamic blade element momentum method in OpenFAST and free vortex wake modules in panMARE and OpenFAST - reveal persistent differences in thrust predictions under both idealised and realistic conditions. This highlights that classical blade element momentum approaches require enhancement to accurately capture unsteady loads on large-scale floating offshore wind turbines at low wind speeds.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanosecond Transient Validation of Surge Arrester Models to Predict Electromagnetic Pulse Response

The impact of high-altitude electromagnetic pulse events on the electric grid is not fully understood, and validated modeling of mitigations, such as lightning surge arresters (LSAs) is necessary to predict the propagation of very fast transients on the grid. Experimental validation of high frequency models for surge arresters is an active area of research. Further, this article serves to experimentally validate a previously defined ZnO LSA model using four metal-oxide varistor pucks and nanosecond scale pulses to measure voltage and current responses. The SPICE circuit models of the pucks showed good predictability when compared to the measured arrester response when accounting for a testbed inductance of approximately 100 nH. Additionally, the comparatively high capacitance of low-profile arresters show a favorable response to high-speed transients that indicates the potential for effective electromagnetic pulse mitigation with future materials design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hurricane wind field representation shapes storm surge and building-scale flood hazard estimates

Coastal flood hazard estimates rely on precise hurricane wind forecasts to assess damage and risk. Here, we demonstrate that errors in hurricane wind field representation can lead to significant biases in storm surge and property-level damage estimates. Using Hurricane Ian (2022) as a case study, we compare widely used parametric, reanalysis, and hybrid wind datasets. Improved wind field accuracy reduces storm surge and damage estimate bias by up to 70\%. Our results underscore the importance of accurately predicting hurricane wind structure in hazard assessments.

Coastal Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

During this project, we experimentally investigated the hydrodynamics and performance of a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC).We looked at how flap buoyancy and driveline losses (primarily in the form of stiction) affected the dynamics and performance of the device. In addition, we assessed the influence of flap profile (rounded vs. square edges) on OSWEC hydrodynamics. Through this, we were able to develop a deeper understanding of OSWEC performance and provide guidance on strategies to counteract artifacts that may be present in laboratory models, but are absent in field-scale devices. To do this, we tested a laboratory-scale OSWEC in the Sea Wave Environmental Lab (SWEL) wave tank at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). We ran several types of experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics and performance of the device. Overall, we achieved the overall goal of experimentally investigating the hydrodynamics and performance of this device. We discovered important and unexpected trends in performance, and collected time-resolved data to help us further investigate the underlying hydrodynamics responsible for these trends. In addition, we are currently using the time-resolved data from these experiments to build data-driven models of the dynamics, which can in turn be used to inform data-driven model predictive control of this device and address this objective in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Oscillating surge wave energy converter using a novel above-water power takeoff with belt-arc speed amplification

We investigate the performance of a novel power takeoff (PTO) featuring belt-arc speed amplification for oscillating surge wave energy converters (OSWECs), aiming to address the challenges of extremely low rotary speed and large torque under the low-frequency ocean wave excitations. The belt-arc design significantly increases the rotary speed of the generator, enabling generator downsizing and decreasing the powertrain friction losses. The design also allows for placing the generator above water, eliminating the need for high Ingress Protection ratings for the generator and powertrain, and potentially leading to substantial reductions in capital and maintenance costs. Using the linear potential wave theory, the dynamics of the integrated system are analyzed, and key parameters are identified. To validate the numerical analysis, a 1:10 scale model is designed, fabricated, and tested in a wave tank. Performance evaluations are conducted under regular and irregular wave conditions, with quantified effects of parameter tuning. The results reveal an optimal wave-to-electric efficiency of 48% under regular wave excitation and 20% under irregular excitation. Furthermore, these findings underscore the effectiveness of the proposed novel PTO design in addressing the challenges of low rotation speed and large torque inherent in OSWECs, demonstrating its ability to efficiently convert wave power into electricity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

TEAMER Technical Support for Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (CRADA Final Report)

This project will focus on running experiments that evaluate the benefits of using model predictive control (MPC) to optimize power absorbed by a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC). MPC is a promising technique to optimize wave energy converter (WEC) behavior while applying system constraints that can help promote structural integrity and device survivability, but there are few studies that experimentally test this control scheme on WECs. Therefore, the Participant is proposing a series of tests that will assess the benefits of MPC experimentally in response to a variety of sea states. For these tests, the Participant will provide the OSWEC device and Data Acquisition (DAQ) system, and request support from the Contractor to use and operate the wave tank for experiments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parameter-Varying Hydrodynamic Model of a Single Vane in a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter

This paper presents a preliminary study on the parameter-varying hydrodynamic modeling of an individual vane of a variable-geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC). The WEC design incorporates controlled surfaces that can modify their orientation relative to the wave motion, reducing hydrodynamic pressure and related loads. This research focuses on characterizing the behavior of the oscillating WEC using a simplified model and three methods for achieving a continuous parameter-varying model: coarse hydrodynamic parameters, interpolation of hydrodynamic parameters, and a fitting function. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of parameter-varying hydrodynamic effects in variable geometry oscillating WECs. The findings provide insights into the potential for reducing structural loads and improving the overall performance of such devices. Further research and development in this area could lead to advancements in WEC technologies, enabling their integration into the competitive energy market.

analytical models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parameter-Varying Hydrodynamic Model of a Single Vane in a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter: Preprint

This paper presents a study on the time-varying hydrodynamic modeling of an individual flap of a variable geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC). The WEC design incorporates controlled surfaces that can modify their orientation relative to the wave motion, reducing hydrodynamic pressure and related loads. This research focuses on characterizing the behavior of the oscillating WEC using a simplified model and three methods for achieving a continuous time-variant model: discrete hydrodynamic parameters, interpolation of hydrodynamic parameters, and a fitting function. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of time-varying hydrodynamic effects in variable geometry oscillating WECs. The findings provide insights into the potential for reducing structural loads and improving the overall performance of such devices. Further research and development in this area could lead to advancements in WEC technologies, enabling their integration into the competitive energy market.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗