Seismic Monitoring of the Sacramento Basin Using Dark Fiber and Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)
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A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA
Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.
Environmental sciences↗
Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection
Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.
Basin-scale↗
Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins
The Prospective Seal Unit Spatial Extent Database for U.S. Sedimentary Basins contains a series of spatial datasets representing spatial extents of publicly available data for caprock and seal rock units within the Appalachian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, Great Valley Basin (Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins), Illinois Basin, Michigan Basin, San Juan Basin, U.S. Gulf Coast Basin, and Williston Basin. The database is designed to support carbon storage feasibility and resources assessment for carbon transport and storage (CTS) projects while displaying the spatial extent of prospective seal units and provide a guide to the original data source. This database leverages publicly available data resources from authoritative sources (e.g. U.S. Geological Survey, State Geologic Surveys, and published reports), and aims to help guide users to understand the seal unit's spatial coverage and data gaps from the regional to sub-basin/field scale. The database is organized by seal unit/formation, including the spatial extent for data found to be available for the seal unit. The various datasets represented include spatial extents of the lithologic formation, depth to top structural contour maps, and thickness/isopach maps. Included in this submission are the following resources: 1. Geodatabase/Dataset: “prospective-seal-unit-extents-2025.gdb” 2. ReadMe: “readme-prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extent-dataset-2025.pdf” 3. Data Catalog: “prospective-seal-unit-spatial-extents-data-catalog-2025.xlsx” 4. Data Sources Key: “data-source.csv” Please see NETL disclaimers here: https://netl.doe.gov/home/disclaimer
Basin↗
Citizen Green #1 Well : Sidewall Core Permeability Studies
This submission includes information on porosity & permeability measurements conducted on sidewall cores from the Citizen Green #1 well drilled on King Island, CA (API 07720688) as part of the WESTCARB partnership basin characterization effort. Cores were acquired with a rotary sidewall tool at a range of depths; only deeper cores were sufficiently consolidated for analysis. SidewallCoreFormationDepthNotes.xls provides details on available samples. Helium porosimetry, air permeability, and brine permeability measurements were conducted on all competent samples (~15). Samples were largely in the Mokelumne, H&T shale, and Starkey formations. All measurements were conducted by Core Laboratories (Bakersfield) on behalf of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) with final reports provided in November of 2012. Further measurements were conducted on some sidewalls with data in other submissions.
pemeability↗
A Comparison of Groundwater Storage Using GRACE Data, Groundwater Levels, and a Hydrological Model in Californias Central Valley
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) measures changes in total water storage (TWS) remotely, and may provide additional insight to the use of well-based data in California's agriculturally productive Central Valley region. Under current California law, well owners are not required to report groundwater extraction rates, making estimation of total groundwater extraction difficult. As a result, other groundwater change detection techniques may prove useful. From October 2002 to September 2009, GRACE was used to map changes in TWS for the three hydrological regions (the Sacramento River Basin, the San Joaquin River Basin, and the Tulare Lake Basin) encompassing the Central Valley aquifer. Net groundwater storage changes were calculated from the changes in TWS for each of the three hydrological regions and by incorporating estimates for additional components of the hydrological budget including precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow pack, and surface water storage. The calculated changes in groundwater storage were then compared to simulated values from the California Department of Water Resource's Central Valley Groundwater- Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and their Water Data Library (WDL) Geographic Information System (GIS) change in storage tool. The results from the three methods were compared. Downscaling GRACE data into the 21 smaller Central Valley sub-regions included in C2VSIM was also evaluated. This work has the potential to improve California's groundwater resource management and use of existing hydrological models for the Central Valley.
Department of Water Resources↗
Interpretation of snowcover from satellite imagery for use in water supply forecasts in the Sierra Nevada
The California ASVT test area is composed of two study areas; one in Northern California covering the Upper Sacramento and Feather River Basins, and the other covering the Southern Sierra Basins of the San Joaquin, Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern Rivers. Experiences of reducing snowcover from satellite imagery; the accuracy of present water supply forecast schemes; and the potential advantages of introducing snowcover into the forecast procedures are described.
Brown, A. J.↗
Basin-Scale Structural Features Database
The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.
basin scale↗
Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change
Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.
Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
Population Structure of White Sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Columbia River Inferred from Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms
White sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) are the largest freshwater fish in North America, with reproducing populations in the Sacramento-San Joaquin, Fraser, and Columbia River Basins. Of these, the Columbia River is the largest, but it is also highly fragmented by hydroelectric dams, and many segments are characterized by declining abundance and persistent recruitment failure. Efforts to conserve and supplement these fish requires an understanding of their spatial genetic structure. Here, we assembled a large set of samples from throughout the Columbia River Basin, along with representative collections from adjacent basins, and genotyped them using a panel of 325 single-nucleotide markers. Results from individual- and group-based analyses of these data indicate that white sturgeon in the uppermost Columbia River Basin, in the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers, are the most distinct, while the remaining populations downstream in the basin can be described as a genetic gradient consistent with an isolation-by-distance effect. Notably, the population in the lowest reaches of the Columbia River is more distinct from the middle or upper reaches than from outside basins, and suggests historically a higher or more recent gene exchange through coastal routes than with populations in the interior Columbia Basin. Nonetheless, proximal reaches were generally only marginally or non-significantly divergent, suggesting that transplanting larvae or juveniles from nearby sources poses relatively little risk of outbreeding depression. Indeed, we inferred examples of dispersal between reaches via close-kin mark-recapture and genetic mark-recapture that indicate movement between nearby reaches is not unusual. Samples from the Kootenai and upper Snake Rivers exhibited notably lower genetic diversity than the remaining samples as a result of population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and/or historical divergence. Conservation actions, such as supplementation, are underway to maintain population viability and will require balanced efforts to increase demographic abundance while maintaining genetic diversity.
Willis, Stuart C.↗
Basin-Scale Assessment of the Land Surface Water Budget in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Operational and Research NLDAS-2 Systems
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the components of the land surface water budget in the four land surface models (Noah, SAC-Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, (VIC) Variable Infiltration Capacity Model, and Mosaic) applied in the newly implemented National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational and research versions of the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2). This work focuses on monthly and annual components of the water budget over 12 National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Monthly gridded FLUX Network (FLUXNET) evapotranspiration (ET) from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) of Germany, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) total runoff (Q), changes in total water storage (dS/dt, derived as a residual by utilizing MPI ET and USGS Q in the water balance equation), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and change (TWSC) are used as reference data sets. Compared to these ET and Q benchmarks, Mosaic and SAC (Noah and VIC) in the operational NLDAS-2 overestimate (underestimate) mean annual reference ET and underestimate (overestimate) mean annual reference Q. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) is closer to the mean annual reference ET and Q. An anomaly correlation (AC) analysis shows good AC values for simulated monthly mean Q and dS/dt but significantly smaller AC values for simulated ET. Upgraded versions of the models utilized in the research side of NLDAS-2 yield largely improved performance in the simulation of these mean annual and monthly water component diagnostics. These results demonstrate that the three intertwined efforts of improving (1) the scientific understanding of parameterization of land surface processes, (2) the spatial and temporal extent of systematic validation of land surface processes, and (3) the engineering-oriented aspects such as parameter calibration and optimization are key to substantially improving product quality in various land data assimilation systems.
NLDAS-2↗
Distributed Assimilation of Satellite-based Snow Extent for Improving Simulated Streamflow in Mountainous, Dense Forests: An Example Over the DMIP2 Western Basins
Snow cover area affects snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and ultimately streamflow. For the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2 Western basins, we assimilate satellite-based fractional snow cover area (fSCA) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, into the National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW-17 model. This model is coupled with the NWS Sacramento Heat Transfer (SAC-HT) model inside the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Land Information System. SNOW-17 computes fSCA from snow water equivalent (SWE) values using an areal depletion curve. Using a direct insertion, we assimilate fSCAs in two fully distributed ways: 1) we update the curve by attempting SWE preservation, and 2) we reconstruct SWEs using the curve. The preceding are refinements of an existing simple, conceptually-guided NWS algorithm. Satellite fSCA over dense forests inadequately accounts for below-canopy snow, degrading simulated streamflow upon assimilation during snowmelt. Accordingly, we implement a below-canopy allowance during assimilation. This simplistic allowance and direct insertion are found to be inadequate for improving calibrated results, still degrading them as mentioned above. However, for streamflow volume for the uncalibrated runs, we obtain: (1) substantial to major improvements (64-81 %) as a percentage of the control run residuals (or distance from observations), and (2) minor improvements (16-22 %) as a percentage of observed values. We highlight the need for detailed representations of canopy-snow optical radiative transfer processes in mountainous, dense forest regions if assimilation-based improvements are to be seen in calibrated runs over these areas.
Yatheendradas, Soni↗
Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C
With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.
Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗