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At least 19 records

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin

A Preliminary Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map

Recent breakthrough improvements in foil gas bearing load capacity, high temperature tribological coatings and computer based modeling have enabled the development of increasingly larger and more advanced Oil-Free Turbomachinery systems. Successful integration of foil gas bearings into turbomachinery requires a step wise approach that includes conceptual design and feasibility studies, bearing testing, and rotor testing prior to full scale system level demonstrations. Unfortunately, the current level of understanding of foil gas bearings and especially their tribological behavior is often insufficient to avoid developmental problems thereby hampering commercialization of new applications. In this paper, a new approach loosely based upon accepted hydrodynamic theory, is developed which results in a "Foil Gas Bearing Performance Map" to guide the integration process. This performance map, which resembles a Stribeck curve for bearing friction, is useful in describing bearing operating regimes, performance safety margins, the effects of load on performance and limiting factors for foil gas bearings.

DellaCorte, Christopher

Flight motor set 360L001 (STS-26R). Volume 5: Nozzle component

A review of the performance and post-flight condition of the STS-26 Redesigned Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzles is presented. The nozzle assemblies, flown on the Space Shuttle Discovery on 29 September 1988, were tested to demonstrate flex bearing system reusability. The evaluation indicated no condition that would adversely affect the reusability of the flex bearing system. Inspection showed that the flex bearings did not leak, were not damaged by water impact, had the expected erosion profiles, and that the remaining ablative liner thicknesses met the performance margin of safety. Applicable Discrepancy Reports and Process Departures, the Nozzle Component Program Team performance evaluation, and the Redesign Program Review Board assessment are included.

George, Russell J.

Takeoff certification considerations for large subsonic and supersonic transport airplanes using the Ames flight simulator for advanced aircraft

Data for use in development of takeoff airworthiness standards for new aircraft designs such as the supersonic transport (SST) and the large wide-body subsonic jet transport are provided. An advanced motion simulator was used to compare the performance and handling characteristics of three representative large jet transports during specific flight certification tasks. Existing regulatory constraints and methods for determining rotation speed were reviewed, and the effects on takeoff performance of variations in rotation speed, pitch attitude, and pitch attitude rate during the rotation maneuver were analyzed. A limited quantity of refused takeoff information was obtained. The aerodynamics, wing loading, and thrust-to-weight ratio of the subject SST resulted in takeoff speeds limited by climb (rather than lift-off) considerations. Take-off speeds based on U.S. subsonic transport requirements were found unacceptable because of the criticality of rotation-abuse effects on one-engine-inoperative climb performance. Adequate safety margin was provided by takeoff speeds based on proposed Anglo-French supersonic transport (TSS) criteria, with the limiting criterion being that takeoff safety speed be at least 1.15 times the one-engine-inoperative zero-rate-of-climb speed. Various observations related to SST certification are presented.

Snyder, C. T.

Flight motor set 36OH005 (STS-28R). Volume 5: (Nozzle component)

A review of the performance and post flight condition of the STS-28 redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM) nozzles is presented in this document. Applicable discrepancy reports (DR's) and process departures (PD's) are presented in section 5.0. The nozzle component program team (NCPT) performance evaluation and the redesign program review board (RPRB) assessment is included in section 6.0. The STS-28 nozzle assemblies were flown on the RSRM fifth flight (Space Shuttle Columbia). The nozzles were a partially submerged convergent/divergent movable design with an aft pivot point flexible bearing. The nozzle assemblies incorporated the following features: (1) RSRM forward exit cone with snubber assembly; (2) RSRM fixed housing; (3) structural backup outer boot ring (OBR); (4) RSRM cowl ring; (5) RSRM nose inlet assembly; (6) RSRM throat assembly; (7) RSRM forward nose and aft inlet ring; (8) RSRM aft exit cone assembly with linear-shaped charge (LSC); (9) RTV backfill in joints 1, 3, and 4; (10) use of EA913 NA adhesive in place of EA913; (11) redesigned nozzle plug; and (12) carbon cloth phenolic (CCP) with 750 ppm sodium content. The RSRM fifth flight test objectives are as follows: (1) verify that flexible bearing seals operate within the specified temperature range; (2) verify that flexible bearing maintained a positive gas seal between its internal components; (3) inspect flexible bearing for damage due to water impact; (4) verify performance of the nozzle liner; (5) verify that nozzle parts are reusable; (6) verify through flight demonstration and a postflight inspection that the flexible bearing is reusable; (7) verify by inspection the remaining nozzle ablative thicknesses; and (8) verify the nozzle performance margins of safety.

Smith, Dan M., Jr.

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMC) Life Prediction Development

Advanced launch systems will very likely incorporate fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC) in critical propulsion and airframe components. The use of CMC will save weight, increase operating margin, safety and performance, and improve reuse capability. For reusable and single mission use, accurate life prediction is critical to success. The tools to accomplish this are immature and not oriented toward the behavior of carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC), the primary system of interest for many applications. This paper describes an approach and progress made to satisfy the need to develop an integrated life prediction system that addresses mechanical durability and environmental degradation.

Levine, Stanley R.

Effects of Defects Analysis and Sizing Framework for Efficient Design of Composite Structures

Design of large composite structures requires striking a balance between permitted flaw size,strength margins, weight, and production rate. Stringent requirements manufacturing flaws can result in a lightweight structure because the strength properties are assumed to be closer to pristine. However, these stringent requirements can lead to production delays due to increased inspection and rework needed during the layup and rejection of parts after cure. Conversely, permitting larger flaws can reduce production delays, but will likely result in a heavier structure due to increased conservatism needed to maintain acceptable structural margins. The tradeoff between these criteria can vary between different structures and material systems, so the balance between manufacturing and design requirements is always a moving target. Assessment of this tradeoff requires having the ability to quickly evaluate the impact of flaw size on strength margin across an entire structure for a large number of load cases. The approach taken in this work is to implement an effects of defects analysis and sizing framework within HyperX. HyperX performs optimization of composite structures; this capability has been enhanced to include structural flaw data in the margin of safety calculations performed during optimization. Both the flaw import process and analysis of flaws have been generalized such that any flaw type from any source can be considered. The resulting tool enables rapid assessment of the impact of defects both at a vehicle and part level.

Effects of defects

Effects of Defects Analysis and Sizing Framework for Efficient Design of Composite Structures

Design of large composite structures requires striking a balance between permitted flaw size,strength margins, weight, and production rate. Stringent requirements manufacturing flaws can result in a lightweight structure because the strength properties are assumed to be closer to pristine. However, these stringent requirements can lead to production delays due to increased inspection and rework needed during the layup and rejection of parts after cure. Conversely, permitting larger flaws can reduce production delays, but will likely result in a heavier structure due to increased conservatism needed to maintain acceptable structural margins. The tradeoff between these criteria can vary between different structures and material systems, so the balance between manufacturing and design requirements is always a moving target. Assessment of this tradeoff requires having the ability to quickly evaluate the impact of flaw size on strength margin across an entire structure for a large number of load cases. The approach taken in this work is to implement an effects of defects analysis and sizing framework within HyperX. HyperX performs optimization of composite structures; this capability has been enhanced to include structural flaw data in the margin of safety calculations performed during optimization. Both the flaw import process and analysis of flaws have been generalized such that any flaw type from any source can be considered. The resulting tool enables rapid assessment of the impact of defects both at a vehicle and part level.

Effects of defects

Effect of commercial and military performance requirements for transport category aircraft on space shuttle booster design and operation

The effect of two sets of performance requirements, commercial and military, on the design and operation of the space shuttle booster is evaluated. Critical thrust levels are established according to both sets of operating rules for the takeoff, cruise, and go-around flight modes, and the effect on engine requirements determined. Both flyback and ferry operations are considered. The impact of landing rules on potential shuttle flyback and ferry bases is evaluated. Factors affecting reserves are discussed, including winds, temperature, and nonstandard flight operations. Finally, a recommended set of operating rules is proposed for both flyback and ferry operations that allows adequate performance capability and safety margins without compromising design requirements for either flight phase.

Bithell, R. A.

Achieving Space Shuttle ATO Using the Five-Segment Booster (FSB)

As part of the continuing effort to identify approaches to improve the safety and reliability of the Space Shuttle system, a Five-Segment Booster (FSB) design was conceptualized as a replacement for the current Space Shuttle boosters. The FSB offers a simple, unique approach to improve astronaut safety and increase performance margin. To determine the feasibility of the FSB, a Phase A study effort was sponsored by NASA and directed by the Marshall Space Flight Center. This study was initiated in March of 1999 and completed in December of 2000. The basic objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of the FSB design concept and also estimate the cost and scope of a full-scale development program for the FSB. In order to ensure an effective and thorough evaluation of the FSB concept, four team members were put on contract to support various areas of importance in assessing the overall feasibility of the design approach.

Sauvageau, Donald R.

Lockheed Martin Response to the OSP Challenge

The Lockheed Martin Orbital Space Plane System provides crew transfer and rescue for the International Space Station more safely and affordably than current human space transportation systems. Through planned upgrades and spiral development, it is also capable of satisfying the Nation's evolving space transportation requirements and enabling the national vision for human space flight. The OSP System, formulated through rigorous requirements definition and decomposition, consists of spacecraft and launch vehicle flight elements, ground processing facilities and existing transportation, launch complex, range, mission control, weather, navigation, communication and tracking infrastructure. The concept of operations, including procurement, mission planning, launch preparation, launch and mission operations and vehicle maintenance, repair and turnaround, is structured to maximize flexibility and mission availability and minimize program life cycle cost. The approach to human rating and crew safety utilizes simplicity, performance margin, redundancy, abort modes and escape modes to mitigate credible hazards that cannot be designed out of the system.

Sullivan, Robert T.

Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.

Hamlin, Teri L.

800 C Silicon Carbide (SiC) Pressure Sensors for Engine Ground Testing

MEMS-based 4H-SiC piezoresistive pressure sensors have been demonstrated at 800 C, leading to the discovery of strain sensitivity recovery with increasing temperatures above 400 C, eventually achieving up to, or near, 100 recovery of the room temperature values at 800 C. This result will allow the insertion of highly sensitive pressure sensors closer to jet, rocket, and hypersonic engine combustion chambers to improve the quantification accuracy of combustor dynamics, performance, and increase safety margin. Also, by operating at higher temperature and locating closer to the combustion chamber, reduction of the length (weight) of pressure tubes that are currently used will be achieved. This will result in reduced costlb to access space.

Pressure sensors

Evaluation of Margins of Safety in Brazed Joints

One of the essential steps in assuring reliable performance of high cost critical brazed structures is the assessment of the Margin of Safety (MS) of the brazed joints. In many cases the experimental determination of the failure loads by destructive testing of the brazed assembly is not practical and cost prohibitive. In such cases the evaluation of the MS is performed analytically by comparing the maximum design loads with the allowable ones and incorporating various safety or knock down factors imposed by the customer. Unfortunately, an industry standard methodology for the design and analysis of brazed joints has not been developed. This paper provides an example of an approach that was used to analyze an AlBeMet 162 (38%Be-62%Al) structure brazed with the AWS BAlSi-4 (Al-12%Si) filler metal. A practical and conservative interaction equation combining shear and tensile allowables was developed and validated to evaluate an acceptable (safe) combination of tensile and shear stresses acting in the brazed joint. These allowables are obtained from testing of standard tensile and lap shear brazed specimens. The proposed equation enables the assessment of the load carrying capability of complex brazed joints subjected to multi-axial loading.

Flom, Yury

Airworthiness criteria development for powered-lift aircraft: A program summary

A four-year simulation program to develop airworthiness criteria for powered-lift aircraft is summarized. All flight phases affected by use of powered lift (approach, landing, takeoff) are treated with regard to airworthiness problem areas (limiting flight conditions and safety margins: stability, control, and performance; and systems failure). The general features of powered-lift aircraft are compared to conventional aircraft.

Heffley, R. K.

Enhanced and Synthetic Vision for Terminal Maneuvering Area NextGen Operations

Synthetic Vision Systems and Enhanced Flight Vision System (SVS/EFVS) technologies have the potential to provide additional margins of safety for aircrew performance and enable operational improvements for low visibility operations in the terminal area environment with equivalent efficiency as visual operations. To meet this potential, research is needed for effective technology development and implementation of regulatory and design guidance to support introduction and use of SVS/EFVS advanced cockpit vision technologies in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) operations. A fixed-base pilot-in-the-loop simulation test was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center that evaluated the use of SVS/EFVS in NextGen low visibility ground (taxi) operations and approach/landing operations. Twelve crews flew approach and landing operations in a simulated NextGen Chicago O Hare environment. Various scenarios tested the potential for EFVS for operations in visibility as low as 1000 ft runway visibility range (RVR) and SVS to enable lower decision heights (DH) than can currently be flown today. Expanding the EFVS visual segment from DH to the runway in visibilities as low as 1000 RVR appears to be viable as touchdown performance was excellent without any workload penalties noted for the EFVS concept tested. A lower DH to 150 ft and/or possibly reduced visibility minima by virtue of SVS equipage appears to be viable when implemented on a Head-Up Display, but the landing data suggests further study for head-down implementations.

Kramer, Lynda J.

Enhanced Flight Vision Systems and Synthetic Vision Systems for NextGen Approach and Landing Operations

Synthetic Vision Systems and Enhanced Flight Vision System (SVS/EFVS) technologies have the potential to provide additional margins of safety for aircrew performance and enable operational improvements for low visibility operations in the terminal area environment with equivalent efficiency as visual operations. To meet this potential, research is needed for effective technology development and implementation of regulatory standards and design guidance to support introduction and use of SVS/EFVS advanced cockpit vision technologies in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) operations. A fixed-base pilot-in-the-loop simulation test was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center that evaluated the use of SVS/EFVS in NextGen low visibility approach and landing operations. Twelve crews flew approach and landing operations in a simulated NextGen Chicago O'Hare environment. Various scenarios tested the potential for using EFVS to conduct approach, landing, and roll-out operations in visibility as low as 1000 feet runway visual range (RVR). Also, SVS was tested to evaluate the potential for lowering decision heights (DH) on certain instrument approach procedures below what can be flown today. Expanding the portion of the visual segment in which EFVS can be used in lieu of natural vision from 100 feet above the touchdown zone elevation to touchdown and rollout in visibilities as low as 1000 feet RVR appears to be viable as touchdown performance was acceptable without any apparent workload penalties. A lower DH of 150 feet and/or possibly reduced visibility minima using SVS appears to be viable when implemented on a Head-Up Display, but the landing data suggests further study for head-down implementations.

Kramer, Lynda J.