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This profile provides a snapshot of the energy landscape of the northeast Caribbean island Saint Martin. The island is divided between two nations, France in the north (Saint-Martin) and the Netherlands in the south (Sint Maarten).
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.
The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.
We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). The CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models' projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, tropospheric composition, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI-1 recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI-1 simulations with the aim of informing CCMI data users.
Clouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (r eff ) and modulates the r eff -dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of r eff -dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD-dependent estimation of r eff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of r eff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m –2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.
Investigations of magnetically ordered phases on the femtosecond timescale have provided significant insights into the influence of charge and lattice degrees of freedom on the magnetic sub-system. However, short-range magnetic correlations occurring in the absence of long-range order, for example in spin-frustrated systems, are inaccessible to many ultrafast techniques. Here, we show how time-resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (trRIXS) is capable of probing such short-ranged magnetic dynamics in a charge-transfer insulator through the detection of a Zhang–Rice singlet exciton. Utilizing trRIXS measurements at the O K-edge, and in combination with model calculations, we probe the short-range spin correlations in the frustrated spin chain material CuGeO 3 following photo-excitation, revealing a strong coupling between the local lattice and spin sub-systems.
The James Webb Space Telescope is revolutionising our ability to understand the host galaxies and local environments of high-z quasars. Here we obtain a comprehensive understanding of the host galaxy of the z = 7.08 quasar J1120+0641 by combining NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy with NIRCam photometry of the host continuum emission. Our emission-line maps reveal that this quasar host is undergoing a merger with a bright companion galaxy. The quasar host and the companion have similar dynamical masses of ∼10 10 M ⊙ , suggesting that this is a major galaxy interaction. Through detailed quasar subtraction and SED fitting using the NIRCam data, we obtained an estimate of the host stellar mass of M ∗ = (3.0 −1.4 +2.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ , with M ∗ = (2.7 −0.5 +0.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ for the companion galaxy. Using the Hβ Balmer line, we estimated a virial black hole mass of M BH = (1.9 −1.1 +2.9 ) × 109 M ⊙ . Thus, J1120+0641 has an extreme black hole–stellar mass ratio of M BH /M ∗ = 0.63 −0.31 +0.54 , which is ∼3 dex larger than expected by the local scaling relations between black hole and stellar mass. J1120+0641 is powered by an overmassive black hole with the highest reported black hole–stellar mass ratio in a quasar host that is currently undergoing a major merger. These new insights highlight the power of JWST for measuring and understanding these extreme first quasars.
Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) is an evolving tool for investigating the spin dynamics of strongly correlated materials, which complements inelastic neutron scattering. In isotropic spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ Heisenberg antiferromagnetic (HAFM) spin chains, both techniques have observed non-spin-conserving (NSC) excitations confined to the two-spinon phase space. However, a recent O K-edge RIXS study of the one-dimensional HAFM Sr 2 CuO 3 observed spin-conserving (SC) four-spinon excitations outside the two-spinon phase space. Here, we demonstrate that analogous four-spinon excitations can also be accessed at the Cu L 3 edge in the related material SrCuO 2 . Through detailed modeling, we establish that these excitations appear in both the SC and NSC channels of the Cu L 3 edge, and are only captured by higher-order terms in the ultrashort core-hole lifetime expansion. Finally, since these terms encode information about spin-spin correlations extending beyond nearest neighbors, our results offer different possibilities for studying nonlocal spin correlations in quantum magnets.
Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
LongRunMIP is the first collection of millennial-length simulations of complex coupled climate models and enables investigations of how these models equilibrate in response to radiative perturbations.We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1000+ year) simulations of complex coupled climate models with a representation of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface, and their interactions. Standard model simulations are generally only a few hundred years long. However, modeling the long-term equilibration in response to radiative forcing perturbation is important for understanding many climate phenomena, such as the evolution of ocean circulation, time-and temperature-dependent feedbacks, and the differentiation of forced signal and internal variability. The aim of LongRunMIP is to facilitate research into these questions by serving as an archive for simulations that capture as much of this equilibration as possible. The only requirement to participate in LongRunMIP is to contribute a simulation with elevated, constant CO2 forcing that lasts at least 1000 years. LongRunMIP is a MIP of opportunity in that the simulations were mostly performed prior to the conception of the archive without an agreed-upon set of experiments. For most models, the archive contains a preindustrial control simulation and simulations with an idealized (typically abrupt) CO2 forcing. We collect 2D surface and top-of-atmosphere fields, and 3D ocean temperature and salinity fields. Here, we document the collection of simulations and discuss initial results, including the evolution of surface and deep ocean temperature and cloud radiative effects. As of summer 2019, the collection includes 50 simulations of 15 models by 10 modeling centers. The data of LongRunMIP are publicly available. We encourage submission of more simulations in the future.
Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2 ) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. The models, however, are in good agreement as to the impact of SSWs over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
This fact sheet is an update of Energy Transitions Initiative Islands series energy profile for Sint-Maarten/Saint-Martin.
To enhance the automated control of the plugging meter (PM) and thereby enhance detection fidelity in ultralow oxygen environments [≤1 parts per million by weight (wppm)], a novel proportional derivative controller has been implemented with conventional PM hardware. This ramp sign stabilized flow (RSSF) controller manipulates the sign (heating or cooling direction) at a fixed rate, enabling precise temperature adjustment around the saturation temperature of the bulk sodium. This adjustment helps maintain flow stability in a partially formed sodium oxide plug, thus greatly reducing the temperature amplitude in the plugging cycle and promoting simple and accurate oxygen determinations in addition to an increased sampling rate. Rather than relying on the subjective nature of indexing the time when the flow rate changes due to the plugging or unplugging onset to the PM temperature, a running average of the correlated oxygen concentration with time over multiple plugging events can provide oxygen readings ranging from an absolute uncertainty of 500 wppb in real time to less than 50 wppb for a 24-h sampling window. Finally, the RSSF controller was tested at 508 ± 7 wppb with measured oxygen of 542 ± 179 wppb, further reducing the variance between the saturation temperature and the plugging temperature.
This Roadmap article addresses the critical and multifaceted challenge of plasma facing component (PFC) damage caused by runaway electrons (REs) in tokamaks, a phenomenon that poses a significant threat to the viability and longevity of future fusion reactors such as ITER and DEMO. The dramatically increased RE production expected in future high-current tokamaks makes it very difficult to avoid or mitigate REs in such devices when a plasma discharge terminates abnormally. Preventing damage from the intense localised heat loads they can cause requires a holistic approach that considers plasma, REs and PFC damage. Despite decades of progress in understanding the physics of REs and the thermomechanical response of PFCs separately, their complex interplay remains poorly understood. This document aims to initiate a coordinated, interdisciplinary approach to bridge this gap by reviewing experimental evidence, advancing diagnostic capabilities, and improving modelling tools across different scales, dimensionalities, and fidelities. Key topics include RE beam formation and transport, damage mechanisms in both brittle and metallic PFCs, and observed effects in major facilities such as JET, DIII-D, WEST and EAST. The Roadmap emphasises the urgency of predictive, high-fidelity modelling validated against well-diagnosed controlled experiments, particularly in the light of recent changes in ITER’s wall material strategy and the growing importance of private sector fusion initiatives. Each section of the Roadmap article is written to provide a concise overview of one area of this multidisciplinary subject, with an assessment of the status, a look at current and future challenges, and a brief summary. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to guide future mitigation strategies and design resilient components that can withstand the intense localised loads imposed by REs, thus ensuring the safe and sustainable operation of the next generation of fusion power plants.
Conversion of agricultural and degraded lands to solar energy production provides opportunities to support diverse bee communities—and their pollination services—by creating habitat at solar facilities. Habitat restoration for bees at solar facilities follows the general principle of installing a diverse flowering plant community and assuming bees will come. However, selecting seed mixes for solar facilities is challenging because selected plants need to establish in the unique abiotic conditions of solar facilities and not interfere with solar energy production (tall plants may shade panels). Recent research tested commercially available and bespoke pollinator mixes for establishment success in Minnesota solar facilities and identified 14 forb species that established successfully over three years of the experiment. We ask an important follow-up question: how many native bee species, and which bee species, are these 14 plant species capable of supporting? We used a plant-bee interaction data set from Minnesota to calculate the number of bee species that would be supported by the 14 plant species for the duration of their flight seasons using a published bee species richness function. We found 122 unique bee species (24% of Minnesota diversity) may be supported for their entire flight seasons by the 14 focal plants.
Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The arrival of these aerosol layers in late June caused some concern within the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations the volcanic plume from the 21 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke was not expected over the UK until early July. Using dispersion simulations from the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), and supporting evidence from satellite and in situ aircraft observations, we show that the early arrival of the stratospheric layers was not due to aerosols from the explosive eruption of the Raikoke volcano but due to biomass burning smoke aerosols associated with intense forest fires in Alberta, Canada, that occurred 4 d prior to the Raikoke eruption. We use the observations and model simulations to describe the dispersion of both the volcanic and forest fire aerosol clouds and estimate that the initial Raikoke ash aerosol cloud contained around 15 Tg of volcanic ash and that the forest fires produced around 0.2 Tg of biomass burning aerosol. The operational monitoring of volcanic aerosol clouds is a vital capability in terms of aviation safety and the synergy of NAME dispersion simulations, and lidar data with depolarising capabilities allowed scientists at the Met Office to interpret the various aerosol layers over the UK and attribute the material to their sources. The use of NAME allowed the identification of the observed stratospheric layers that reached the UK on 27 June as biomass burning aerosol, characterised by a particle linear depolarisation ratio of 9 %, whereas with the lidar alone the latter could have been identified as the early arrival of a volcanic ash–sulfate mixed aerosol cloud. In the case under study, given the low concentration estimates, the exact identification of the aerosol layers would have made little substantive difference to the decision-making process within the London VAAC. However, our work shows how the use of dispersion modelling together with multiple observation sources enabled us to create a more complete description of atmospheric aerosol loading.
Metabolite genome-wide association studies (mGWASs) are increasingly used to discover the genetic basis of target phenotypes in plants such as Populus trichocarpa , a biofuel feedstock and model woody plant species. Despite their growing importance in plant genetics and metabolomics, few mGWASs are experimentally validated. Here, we present a functional genomics workflow for validating mGWAS-predicted enzyme–substrate relationships. We focus on uridine diphosphate–glycosyltransferases (UGTs), a large family of enzymes that catalyze sugar transfer to a variety of plant secondary metabolites involved in defense, signaling, and lignification. Glycosylation influences physiological roles, localization within cells and tissues, and metabolic fates of these metabolites. UGTs have substantially expanded in P. trichocarpa , presenting a challenge for large-scale characterization. Using a high-throughput assay, we produced substrate acceptance profiles for 40 previously uncharacterized candidate enzymes. Assays confirmed 10 of 13 leaf mGWAS associations, and a focused metabolite screen demonstrated varying levels of substrate specificity among UGTs. A substrate binding model case study of UGT-23 rationalized observed enzyme activities and mGWAS associations, including glycosylation of trichocarpinene to produce trichocarpin, a major higher-order salicylate in P. trichocarpa. We identified UGTs putatively involved in lignan, flavonoid, salicylate, and phytohormone metabolism, with potential implications for cell wall biosynthesis, nitrogen uptake, and biotic and abiotic stress response that determine sustainable biomass crop production. Our results provide new support for in silico analyses and evidence-based guidance for in vivo functional characterization.
Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) produce mycelia with variable extension and complexity, which can be classified according to soil ‘exploration types’ (ETs). ETs have received attention as one of the few mycorrhizal trait frameworks, but without an empirical classification of ET functional diversity and environmental preferences, understanding and interpreting EMF biogeographic patterns has been difficult. We conducted a synthesis combining: comparative EMF genomics to describe functional divergence in decomposition and nutrient cycling genes across ETs; and EMF trait distribution modeling across continental Europe, pairing soil and root EMF surveys to establish biogeographic ET niche profiles. We demonstrate a signature of ETs encoded in EMF genomes, which is independent from phylogeny and linked to biomass production strategies. EMF ET relative abundances were separated by soil, root, and dominant tree leaf type habitats and exhibited unique correlations with forest biotic (e.g. plant productivity and plant pathogen densities) and abiotic (e.g. nitrogen deposition and soil pH) conditions. These findings support a theory that EMF niche partitioning can be partially explained by extraradical mycelial traits, with underlying variation in ET biogeography likely arising from distinct decomposition and nutrient cycling potentials. We also identify important limitations to this trait framework and provide a guided outlook for future research.