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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2023

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Global FEP catalogs describe important natural and man-made repository system features and identify events and processes that may affect these features into the future. By combining FEPs, many of which are uncertain, different possible future system evolution scenarios are derived. Repository licensing should consider both the reference or “base” evolution as well as alternative futures that may lead to radiation release, pollution, or exposures. Scenarios are used to derive and consider both base and alternative evolutions, often through production of scenario-specific SA models and the recombination of their results into an assessment of the risk of harm. Furthermore, while the FEP-based scenario development process outlined here has evolved somewhat since its development in the 1980s, the fundamental ideas remain unchanged. A spectrum of common approaches is given here (e.g., bottom–up vs. top–down scenario development, probabilistic vs. bounding handling of uncertainty), related to how individual numerical models for possible futures are converted into a determination as to whether the system is safe (i.e., how aleatoric uncertainty and scenarios are integrated through bounding or Monte Carlo approaches).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reversed magnetic shear scenario development in NSTX-U using TRANSP

Abstract Understanding and control of electron thermal transport is a critical point of research in magnetic fusion experiments. Previous experiments have shown that operation with reversed magnetic shear (RMS) can suppress electron thermal transport, resulting in the generation of internal transport barriers (ITBs), with the location of the ITB correlated with the location of minimum magnetic shear. The recent upgrades to NSTX—increased magnetic field up to 1 T, increased plasma current up to 2 MA, 2nd neutral beam—present an increased operating space in which to explore electron thermal transport in RMS plasmas. Utilizing TRANSP, we have developed operating scenarios by which to generate RMS in NSTX-U. The results suggest that RMS in NSTX-U can be generated through fast current ramp and early beam injection into a large plasma volume. This is very similar to the procedure that was followed in both TFTR and NSTX to generate RMS. Sustainment of RMS, disregarding non-( q min = 1) MHD events, requires maintaining a large plasma volume, and increasing the core T e , either via increased plasma current and/or adding heating power. Using this procedure, RMS was sustained for ∼1 s, with q min > 1 for that period.

Galante, M. E. (ORCID:0009000098149425)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parametric raytracing modeling for NSTX-U scenario development with high harmonic fast waves and neutral beam injection

High harmonic fast waves (HHFW) are a versatile heating and current drive tool for scenario development. Extensive modeling scans were performed to find optimal parameters for different uses of HHFW in National Spherical Tokamak Experiment (NSTX-U). Scans of plasma density, temperature, magnetic field, and antenna phasing were performed both with and without neutral beam injection. For speed of calculation, the ray-tracing code GENRAY coupled to the quasilinear Fokker–Planck code CQL3D was used. CQL3D allows for a more accurate description of the fast ion population, as well as for quasilinear effects such as HHFW-induced modifications of the distribution function. Best current drive results are obtained at elevated electron temperatures and with the lowest k φ phasing. Adding neutral beams however typically strongly reduces the HHFW current drive efficiency at the low density cases due to HHFW absorption on beam ions. Results of this parametric study will feed into scenario development and predict-first whole-shot modeling of NSTX-U discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Systematic Comparison for Consistent Scenario Development Using Microscopic Simulation Software

This study aims to explore a methodology that enables the development of consistent traffic micro simulation for emerging traffic and vehicle control technologies for improved mobility and energy efficiency across different modeling platforms. Researchers might study the same application on different platforms and have the need to benchmark across platforms. However, there lacks a systematic study on simulation software comparison, especially for emerging mobility and energy efficiency applications. For this, a systematic scenario development and evaluation approach is presented and demonstrated to compare scenarios generated in different traffic microsimulation platforms. Network-level and vehicle-level trip performance results of the traffic scenario are evaluated in three microscopic simulation platforms - VISSIM, AIMSUN, and SUMO. The results indicate that the network-level performance is consistent among the three software suites except when the demand is high, where the energy consumption performance varies.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗
DOE OSTI2024

NBI optimization on SMART and implications for scenario development

Abstract The SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART) under commissioning at the University of Seville, Spain, aims to explore confinement properties and possible advantages in confinement for compact/spherical tokamaks operating at negative vs. positive triangularity. This work explores the benefits of auxiliary heating through Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) for SMART scenarios beyond the initial Ohmic phase of operations, in support of the device’s mission. Expected values of electron and ion temperature achievable with NBI heating are first predicted for the current flat-top phase, including modeling to optimize the NBI injection geometry to maximize NBI absorption and minimize losses for a given equilibrium. Simulations are then extended for a selected case to cover the current ramp-up phase. Differences with results obtained for the flat-top phase indicate the importance of determining the plasma evolution over time, as well as self-consistently determining the edge plasma parameters for reliable time-dependent simulations. Initial simulation results indicate the advantage of auxiliary NBI heating to achieve nearly double values of pressure and stored energy compared to Ohmic discharges, thus significantly increasing the device’s performance. The scenarios developed in this work will also contribute to diagnostic development and optimization for SMART, as well as providing test cases for initial predictions of macro- and micro-instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Developing Scenario‐Based Strategies for Health, Climate, and Environmental Preparedness: The One Health, One Earth Approach

Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.

Abadi, Azar M. [University of Alabama, Birmingham,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Achieving stationary high performance plasmas at Wendelstein 7-X

This work reports on recent results on the search for high performance plasma scenarios at the magnetically confined stellarator fusion device Wendelstein 7-X. In four new designed scenarios, the development from transient toward stationary plasmas of improved performance has been realized. In particular, a high performance duration of up to 5 s, an energy confinement time of 0.3 s, a diamagnetic energy of 1.1 MJ, a central ion temperature of 2.2 keV, and a fusion triple product of 3.4 x 10 19 m -3 ∙ keV ∙ s have been achieved, and previously observed limitations of the machine have been overcome, regarding both the performance and its duration. The two main experimental techniques for stationary high performance are neutral beam injection core fueling on the one hand and the use of a magnetic field configuration with internal islands on the other hand. Two of the developed scenarios are expected to be extendable straightforward toward a duration of several tens of seconds, making use of the long pulse operation capabilities of W7-X.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stability evaluation and mitigation strategies in advanced tokamaks using 3D MHD spectroscopy

Multi-modal, active 3D MHD spectroscopy is applied in high-performance advanced tokamak scenarios to study their stability time evolution, revealing an intriguing dependence on both and . A tailored applied 3D field provides a 3D plasma response to extract the growth rate of the least stable mode. The estimated growth rate finds a decrease in stability when the minimum in the safety factor (q) passes through 2.0 and reveals inherent risks of crossing an additional rational surface at integer q min , even above the usual q = 1 sawtooth condition. Based on this result, the potential scenario in which q min ~ 2 can be safely crossed during a more stable lower β N phase was investigated, and the improved stability of this scenario is confirmed by the estimated growth rate. This shows that 3D MHD spectroscopy can offer insights into strategies for improving stability by identifying the vulnerable aspects of such scenarios. In addition, the method highlights its potential for instability avoidance by enabling early detection of multiple modes, even before magnetic coils can measure them. The measured growth rate by the 3D MHD spectroscopy shows its reliability by exhibiting a correlation with the programmed rises in plasma beta across various high β N and high q min discharges. In addition, this method is successfully applied during rapidly evolving I p ramp-up phases, a key part of the scenario development. By achieving reasonable growth rate measurements at high-performance scenario developments, this technique contributes to the development of advanced diagnostic tools for tokamak scenario stability, which will help identify an effective pathway to stable, high-performance scenarios.

Yang, S. M. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Community-Centric Microgrid Feasibility Analysis Framework to Accelerate Resilience of Island Communities

Marine energy offers a reliable energy solution for island and coastal communities, which often lack traditional local generation, to support their transition to energy independence and reduce reliance on externally imported fuels. Successful deployment of new technologies in these isolated locations requires community acceptance and approval from the outset, as these communities typically lack the financial and technical resources to operate and maintain new systems. This report presents a community-centric microgrid planning framework for remote coastal and island communities. Community engagement is integrated as the first step in the planning process, incorporating community profiles and visions into energy development scenarios. A case study was conducted in St. George, Pribilof Islands, Alaska, which relies entirely on diesel yet has significant wind and wave energy potential. Community engagement revealed a unique history and current economic status, with an interest in adopting advanced energy technologies despite past failures. Various microgrid configurations were optimized, considering different technologies to meet current and future energy needs while balancing cost and energy resilience. Wave energy converters (WECs) were a key component, integrated with other energy sources using the Xendee optimization tool. The Marine Energy Microgrid Toolkit, developed as part of this work, uses commercial power system analysis tools to optimize and analyze microgrid scenarios. The developed framework and toolkit can be applied to island and coastal communities to enhance resilience and support microgrid deployments. Future enhancements will include incorporating new marine resources, developing dynamic models, and automating the integration of Xendee and PowerFactory simulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overview of the Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM)

Recent decarbonization goals and market pressures (nationally and internationally) have led airlines to commit to aggressive strategies to reduce carbon emissions in their fleet. To better understand possible regional evolution scenarios for SAF supply train, we have developed the Regional Biomass Energy Model (RBEM). RBEM is a dynamic model that can be used to create potential development scenarios for bioenergy fuels within a defined region. In this report, we describe the model and present illustrative results using the Chicago O'Hare Airport as an example.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected Urban Morphology of the Los Angeles Area by the Year 2100

This dataset provides projections of urban building morphologies for the Los Angeles urban area at 30-meter spatial resolution. It contains 192 raster files that detail two primary building attributes: building footprint fractions (ranging from 0 to 1) and average building heights (ranging from 0 to 75 meters). The projections account for a wide range of future pathways, covering two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP3 and SSP5), two population scenarios, two developed land intensification scenarios, and four distinct levels of intensification. The dataset was created using dual Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) trained on 2015 land cover and building properties from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Model America datasets. Supporting information on the dataset has been described in the LAUrbanAreaMorphologyProjections2100_README.txt file.

Pandey, Bhartendu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Water Resource Assessment In The New Mexico Permian Basin: BLM 2023 Assessment Report

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil field in the United States and is comprised of three component basins including; the Midland Basin, Delaware Basin and the Marfa Basin. This report describes the work conducted by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to investigate the occurrence of usable water (quality, and depth to water) in the Delaware Sub-basin of the Permian Basin. High Production Areas (HPAs) were identified for the region based on Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario (RFD) published by New Mexico Tech University. HPAs were established based on potential for future development of oil reserves. The study was initiated by the BLM-Carlsbad Field Office (CFO) based on concerns that special protections for groundwater in these HPAs may be warranted. A combination of analysis of existing data and field work to collect new data for analysis were used to complete the investigation objectives. This study summarizes the most recent analyses in an ongoing project and builds on previously completed work as listed in Table 1. Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction in the Permian Basin. Within the New Mexico portion of the Delaware Sub-basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in 30 billion barrels of water over the life of the plan or 1.5 billion barrels per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to provide the necessary water in a manner that fulfills BLM’s role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various water users in the region. This report documents water-level and water chemistry baselines to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under various management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗