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At least 19 records

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers are able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.↗

Stochastic Modeling of Airlines' Scheduled Services Revenue

Airlines' revenue generated from scheduled services account for the major share in the total revenue. As such, predicting airlines' total scheduled services revenue is of great importance both to the governments (in case of national airlines) and private airlines. This importance stems from the need to formulate future airline strategic management policies, determine government subsidy levels, and formulate governmental air transportation policies. The prediction of the airlines' total scheduled services revenue is dealt with in this paper. Four key components of airline's scheduled services are considered. These include revenues generated from passenger, cargo, mail, and excess baggage. By addressing the revenue generated from each schedule service separately, air transportation planners and designers arc able to enhance their ability to formulate specific strategies for each component. Estimation results clearly indicate that the four stochastic processes (scheduled services components) are represented by different Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The results demonstrate the appropriateness of the developed models and their ability to provide air transportation planners with future information vital to the planning and design processes.

Hamed, M. M.↗

Blended service schedule for a power generator

A power generation system includes a power generator operatively connected to a plurality of sensors and a processor. The processor is configured to observe usage-based or event-based data regarding one or more components and consumables of the power generator. A usage-based service schedule is observed for the one or more event-based components and consumables. Operation-based data is received from the plurality of sensors regarding the functioning of the power generation system and one or more operation-based components and consumables of the power generator. An operation-based service schedule is determined for the one or more operation-based components and consumables based on the operation-based data. A blended service schedule is generated, the blended service schedule including the usage-based service schedule and the operation-based service schedule. The blended service schedule is then provided to at least one of a local monitor or a remote monitor.

Keene, Kevin↗

Proposed planning and scheduling services for the SNC in the CDOS era

Studies indicate that the current NCC mode of operation needs to be enhanced to meet the needs of the mid to late 19990's. There is a need to simplify the request interface for Space Network services. This is because there are more complex missions, more flexible spacecraft operations, more scheduling data volume, and more events per spacecraft and scheduling period.

Welden, Todd↗

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

Simulation Study for Interoperability of Urban Air Mobility Scheduling and Separation Services in Ideal Conditions

Provision of strategic scheduling and tactical separation services is vital to the safe and efficient operation of vehicles in the urban airspace. This paper describes the efforts made towards the integration of two such services in a simulation environment under ideal conditions and the subsequent studies done on evaluation of system performance. The scheduling and separation services are set up to complement each other to ensure safe separation between airborne aircraft. The utility of these services will become important as the level of traffic increases. This paper describes the simulation experiments conducted to identify cases where the system performance measured by the number of observed losses of separation degrades even with the scheduling and separation services active. From the results obtained, we identify conditions under which the required maneuvers increase and when we observe airborne conflicts even with separation service active. Results obtained will inform requirements for future advancements both in these services independently and in their joint operations.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Simulation Study for Interoperability of Urban Air Mobility Scheduling and Separation Services in Ideal Conditions

Provision of strategic scheduling and tactical separation services is vital to the safe and efficient operation of vehicles in the urban airspace. This paper describes the efforts made towards the integration of two such services in a simulation environment under ideal conditions and the subsequent studies done on evaluation of system performance. The scheduling and separation services are set up to complement each other to ensure safe separation between airborne aircraft. The utility of these services will become important as the level of traffic increases. This paper describes the simulation experiments conducted to identify cases where the system performance measured by the number of observed losses of separation degrades even with the scheduling and separation services active. From the results obtained, we identify conditions under which the required maneuvers increase and when we observe airborne conflicts even with separation service active. Results obtained will inform requirements for future advancements both in these services independently and in their joint operations.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Scheduling for Public Service in International Operations

The factors involved in scheduling airline services for international operations are discussed. Charts are presented to show the transatlantic pattern of flights for a typical airline during the summer and winter months. The operations of a domestic airline operating overseas and a foreign airline operating to the United States are compared.

Brenner, M. A.↗

Improvements to Integrated Tradespace Analysis of Communications Architectures (ITACA) Network Loading Analysis Tool

NASA's SCENIC project aims to simplify and reduce the cost of space mission planning by replicating the analysis capabilities of commercially licensed software which are integrated with relevant analysis parameters specific to SCaN assets and SCaN supported user missions. SCENIC differs from current tools that perform similar analyses in that it 1) does not require any licensing fees, 2) will provide an all-in-one package for various analysis capabilities that normally requires add-ons or multiple tools to complete. As part of SCENIC's capabilities, the ITACA network loading analysis tool will be responsible for assessing the loading on a given network architecture and generating a network service schedule. ITACA will allow users to evaluate the quality of service of a given network architecture and determine whether or not the architecture will satisfy the mission's requirements. ITACA is currently under development, and the following improvements were made during the fall of 2017: optimization of runtime, augmentation of network asset pre-service configuration time, augmentation of Brent's method of root finding, augmentation of network asset FOV restrictions, augmentation of mission lifetimes, and the integration of a SCaN link budget calculation tool. The improvements resulted in (a) 25% reduction in runtime, (b) more accurate contact window predictions when compared to STK(Registered Trademark) contact window predictions, and (c) increased fidelity through the use of specific SCaN asset parameters.

analysis↗

Enabling a Larger Deep Space Mission Suite: A Deep Space Network Queuing Antenna for Demand Access

The advent of deep space small spacecraft, as exemplified by the Mars Cubesat One (MarCO), Lunar Trailblazer, Janus, the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (EscaPADE), and the thirteen Artemis 1 missions, opens the possibility that a much larger number of deep space spacecraft may be launched over the next 10 years and beyond. While scientifically exciting, the prospect of a (much) larger mission suite raises significant challenges for the current approach to ground stations and mission operations. We have been investigating an integrated approach for ground stations and missions operations to enable new modes of operation while maintaining the capabilities of the current operational techniques. This integrated approach is built around three core capabilities: (1) A queuing antenna that enables monitoring the status of a much larger number of spacecraft, and allows spacecraft to transmit requests for telemetry with NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN); (2) a flexible scheduling system that expands the current DSN scheduling services to enable allocating time on DSN antennas in near real-time; and (3) a cloud-based ground data system that can be spun up and down according to how tracks are assigned by the flexible scheduling system. We shall show that an 18 meter DSN queuing antenna equipped with cyrogenic receivers would enable use of the DSN Demand Access Service for small spacecraft throughout the inner Solar System, thus providing service to a large mission suite. We first discuss the architecture of the queuing antenna and its supporting systems, including, for instance, the service required to generate the schedule for the queueing antenna (which dictates how it slews to monitor multiple spacecraft in a day of operations). Next, we describe the signaling scheme used to encode a request, which is inherited from the already operational DSN Beacon Tone Service, and describe two alternative ways to detect the incoming tone at the ground station, one based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and another one based on Fast-Fourier Transfer (FFT) processing. We then use these results to estimate the maximum range at which a request can be reliably detected as a function of the spacecraft and ground station communication capabilities. Finally, the last part of this part of this paper briefly describes the prototyping effort undertaken at Morehead State University (MSU) and JPL to demonstrate the viability of this new DSN demand access. In particular, we describe the suite of tests conducted using MSU’s 21 meter ground station to validate its use a queuing antenna.

Mattle, Emily↗

DSN Resource Scheduling

TIGRAS is client-side software, which provides tracking-station equipment planning, allocation, and scheduling services to the DSMS (Deep Space Mission System). TIGRAS provides functions for schedulers to coordinate the DSN (Deep Space Network) antenna usage time and to resolve the resource usage conflicts among tracking passes, antenna calibrations, maintenance, and system testing activities. TIGRAS provides a fully integrated multi-pane graphical user interface for all scheduling operations. This is a great improvement over the legacy VAX VMS command line user interface. TIGRAS has the capability to handle all DSN resource scheduling aspects from long-range to real time. TIGRAS assists NASA mission operations for DSN tracking of station equipment resource request processes from long-range load forecasts (ten years or longer), to midrange, short-range, and real-time (less than one week) emergency tracking plan changes. TIGRAS can be operated by NASA mission operations worldwide to make schedule requests for the DSN station equipment.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for the NASA Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system was designed and deployed as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users of the DSN. These users represent not only NASA's deep space missions, but also international partners and ground-based science and calibration users. The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and on the challenges of modeling complex scheduling requirements and the ongoing extension of S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

Deep Space Network↗

Automating Mid- and Long-Range Scheduling for NASA's Deep Space Network

NASA has recently deployed a new mid-range scheduling system for the antennas of the Deep Space Network (DSN), called Service Scheduling Software, or S(sup 3). This system is architected as a modern web application containing a central scheduling database integrated with a collaborative environment, exploiting the same technologies as social web applications but applied to a space operations context. This is highly relevant to the DSN domain since the network schedule of operations is developed in a peer-to-peer negotiation process among all users who utilize the DSN (representing 37 projects including international partners and ground-based science and calibration users). The initial implementation of S(sup 3) is complete and the system has been operational since July 2011. S(sup 3) has been used for negotiating schedules since April 2011, including the baseline schedules for three launching missions in late 2011. S(sup 3) supports a distributed scheduling model, in which changes can potentially be made by multiple users based on multiple schedule "workspaces" or versions of the schedule. This has led to several challenges in the design of the scheduling database, and of a change proposal workflow that allows users to concur with or to reject proposed schedule changes, and then counter-propose with alternative or additional suggested changes. This paper describes some key aspects of the S(sup 3) system and lessons learned from its operational deployment to date, focusing on the challenges of multi-user collaborative scheduling in a practical and mission-critical setting. We will also describe the ongoing project to extend S(sup 3) to encompass long-range planning, downtime analysis, and forecasting, as the next step in developing a single integrated DSN scheduling tool suite to cover all time ranges.

scheduling↗

Transfer Trajectory Options for Servicing Sun-Earth-Moon Libration Point Missions

Future missions to the Sun-Earth Libration L1 and L2 regions will require scheduled servicing to maintain hardware and replenish consumables. While there have been statements made by various NASA programs regarding servicing of vehicles at these locations or in Cis-lunar space, a practical transfer study has not been extensively investigated in an operational fashion to determine the impacts of navigation and maneuver errors. This investigation uses dynamical systems and operational models to design transfer trajectories between the Sun-Earth Libration region (QuasiHalo orbit) and the Earth-Moon vicinity (Distant Retrograde Orbit, QuasiHalo Orbit, Halo Orbit, and Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit). We address the total delta V cost of transfers between each pair of locations using a Monte Carlo analysis.

Earth↗

Transfer Trajectory Options for Servicing Sun-Earth-Moon Libration Point Missions

Future missions to the Sun-Earth Libration L1 and L2 regions will require scheduled servicing to maintain hardware and replenish consumables. While there have been statements made by various NASA programs regarding servicing of vehicles at these locations or in Cis-lunar space, a practical transfer study has not been extensively investigated in an operational fashion to determine the impacts of navigation and maneuver errors. This investigation uses dynamical systems and operational models to design transfer trajectories between the Sun-Earth Libration region (QuasiHalo orbit) and the Earth-Moon vicinity (Distant Retrograde Orbit, QuasiHalo Orbit, Halo Orbit, and Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit). We address the total ΔV cost of transfers and operational considerations between each pair of locations using a Monte Carlo analysis.

Folta, David C.↗

Logistics and operations integration requirements to support Space Station servicing of free flying spacecraft - OMV flight operation

The logistics of OMV free-flyer servicing are examined, with emphasis on integrating the OMV operations into the overall STS-Space Station system. The depletion rate of consumables and lifetimes of free-flyer components are known quantities, which permits definition of a predictable maintenance schedule. Servicing with an OMV will depend on the position and capabilities of the OMV, Shuttle and Station when free-flyer maintenance is needed. Optimized orbital servicing of free-flyers will involve coordination of and resolution of schedule conflicts among STS, the OMV and the Station. The scheduled availability of any of the three components will be predicted in terms of probabilities that any one of the components will not be needed for another mission while performing the mission they are on.

Bell, Jerome A.↗

Using C to build a satellite scheduling expert system: Examples from the Explorer platform planning system

Recently, many expert systems were developed in a LISP environment and then ported to the real world C environment before the final system is delivered. This situation may require that the entire system be completely rewritten in C and may actually result in a system which is put together as quickly as possible with little regard for maintainability and further evolution. With the introduction of high performance UNIX and X-windows based workstations, a great deal of the advantages of developing a first system in the LISP environment have become questionable. A C-based AI development effort is described which is based on a software tools approach with emphasis on reusability and maintainability of code. The discussion starts with simple examples of how list processing can easily be implemented in C and then proceeds to the implementations of frames and objects which use dynamic memory allocation. The implementation of procedures which use depth first search, constraint propagation, context switching and a blackboard-like simulation environment are described. Techniques for managing the complexity of C-based AI software are noted, especially the object-oriented techniques of data encapsulation and incremental development. Finally, all these concepts are put together by describing the components of planning software called the Planning And Resource Reasoning (PARR) shell. This shell was successfully utilized for scheduling services of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite since May 1987 and will be used for operations scheduling of the Explorer Platform in November 1991.

Mclean, David R.↗