Reducing uncertainty by using explanatory relationships
Explanatory relationships can be used effectively to reduce the uncertainty that remains after diagnostic hypotheses have been scored using local matching.
Josephson, John R.↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Score Matching”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Are Soccer Matches Badly Designed Experiments?
Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one. have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game were radically changed.
Skinner, G. K.↗
Soccer Matches as Experiments - How Often Does the 'Best' Team Win?
Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that the best team won. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase thc typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game were radically changed.
Skinner, Gerald K.↗
Mixture-Tuned, Clutter Matched Filter for Remote Detection of Subpixel Spectral Signals
Mapping localized spectral features in large images demands sensitive and robust detection algorithms. Two aspects of large images that can harm matched-filter detection performance are addressed simultaneously. First, multimodal backgrounds may thwart the typical Gaussian model. Second, outlier features can trigger false detections from large projections onto the target vector. Two state-of-the-art approaches are combined that independently address outlier false positives and multimodal backgrounds. The background clustering models multimodal backgrounds, and the mixture tuned matched filter (MT-MF) addresses outliers. Combining the two methods captures significant additional performance benefits. The resulting mixture tuned clutter matched filter (MT-CMF) shows effective performance on simulated and airborne datasets. The classical MNF transform was applied, followed by k-means clustering. Then, each cluster s mean, covariance, and the corresponding eigenvalues were estimated. This yields a cluster-specific matched filter estimate as well as a cluster- specific feasibility score to flag outlier false positives. The technology described is a proof of concept that may be employed in future target detection and mapping applications for remote imaging spectrometers. It is of most direct relevance to JPL proposals for airborne and orbital hyperspectral instruments. Applications include subpixel target detection in hyperspectral scenes for military surveillance. Earth science applications include mineralogical mapping, species discrimination for ecosystem health monitoring, and land use classification.
Thompson, David R.↗
GOES-R: Satellite Insight
GOES-R: Satellite Insight seeks to bring awareness of the GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite -- R Series) satellite currently in development to an audience of all ages on the emerging medium of mobile games. The iPhone app (Satellite Insight) was created for the GOES-R Program. The app describes in simple terms the types of data products that can be produced from GOES-R measurements. The game is easy to learn, yet challenging for all audiences. It includes educational content and a path to further information about GOESR, its technology, and the benefits of the data it collects. The game features action-puzzle game play in which the player must prevent an overflow of data by matching falling blocks that represent different types of GOES-R data. The game adds more different types of data blocks over time, as long as the player can prevent a data overflow condition. Points are awarded for matches, and players can compete with themselves to beat their highest score.
Fitzpatrick, Austin J.↗
Detecting opportunities for parallel observations on the Hubble Space Telescope
The presence of multiple scientific instruments aboard the Hubble Space Telescope provides opportunities for parallel science, i.e., the simultaneous use of different instruments for different observations. Determining whether candidate observations are suitable for parallel execution depends on numerous criteria (some involving quantitative tradeoffs) that may change frequently. A knowledge based approach is presented for constructing a scoring function to rank candidate pairs of observations for parallel science. In the Parallel Observation Matching System (POMS), spacecraft knowledge and schedulers' preferences are represented using a uniform set of mappings, or knowledge functions. Assessment of parallel science opportunities is achieved via composition of the knowledge functions in a prescribed manner. The knowledge acquisition, and explanation facilities of the system are presented. The methodology is applicable to many other multiple criteria assessment problems.
Lucks, Michael↗
Calibration and Validation of a Finite ELement Model of THor-K Anthropomorphic Test Device for Aerospace Safety Applications
The THOR anthropomorphic test device (ATD) has been developed and continuously improved by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to provide automotive manufacturers an advanced tool that can be used to assess the injury risk of vehicle occupants in crash tests. Recently, a series of modifications were completed to improve the biofidelity of THOR ATD [1]. The updated THOR Modification Kit (THOR-K) ATD was employed at Wright-Patterson Air Base in 22 impact tests in three configurations: vertical, lateral, and spinal [2]. Although a computational finite element (FE) model of the THOR had been previously developed [3], updates to the model were needed to incorporate the recent changes in the modification kit. The main goal of this study was to develop and validate a FE model of the THOR-K ATD. The CAD drawings of the THOR-K ATD were reviewed and FE models were developed for the updated parts. For example, the head-skin geometry was found to change significantly, so its model was re-meshed (Fig. 1a). A protocol was developed to calibrate each component identified as key to the kinematic and kinetic response of the THOR-K head/neck ATD FE model (Fig. 1b). The available ATD tests were divided in two groups: a) calibration tests where the unknown material parameters of deformable parts (e.g., head skin, pelvis foam) were optimized to match the data and b) validation tests where the model response was only compared with test data by calculating their score using CORrelation and Analysis (CORA) rating system. Finally, the whole ATD model was validated under horizontal-, vertical-, and lateral-loading conditions against data recorded in the Wright Patterson tests [2]. Overall, the final THOR-K ATD model developed in this study is shown to respond similarly to the ATD in all validation tests. This good performance indicates that the optimization performed during calibration by using the CORA score as objective function is not test specific. Therefore confidence is provided in the ATD model for uses in predicting response in test conditions not performed in this study such those observed in the spacecraft landing. Comparison studies with ATD and human models may also be performed to contribute to future changes in THOR ATD design in an effort to improve its biofidelity, which has been traditionally based on post-mortem human subject testing and designer experience.
Putnam, J. B.↗
An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model
Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.
Rajendran, K.↗
Modeling of Fillets in Thin-Walled Structures for Dynamic Analysis
Relatively new developments in manufacturing methods have made it possible to produce machined parts with a wall thickness of less than 0.010". While the parts are being machined. Fillets of relatively large radius to thickness ratios are created by the milling tool. This paper discusses an accurate new technique for finite-element modeling of fillets for dynamic and stiffness analysis using efficient plate elements rather than more computationally intensive, high density solid meshes, A simple filleted cantilever beam of 0.040" thickness, 1.6" length, 1" depth, and 0.250" radius in the corner was modeled using both solid elements and several different plate element geometries. The finite element results were then compared with static and modal testing of a machined sample. The highest-scoring plate element technique uses a bridge of elements that is constructed through the tangent point of the Fillet radius such that the thickness of the element matches tile volume of the fillet. This model produces errors of less than 4.6 percent for static loading and less than 7.4 percent for modal analysis. This simple plate element technique will prove critical for efficient, timely, and accurate dynamic analysis of complex thin-walled structures.
Seugling, Richard M.↗
High Frequency QRS ECG Accurately Detects Cardiomyopathy
High frequency (HF, 150-250 Hz) analysis over the entire QRS interval of the ECG is more sensitive than conventional ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia. However, the accuracy of HF QRS ECG for detecting cardiomyopathy is unknown. We obtained simultaneous resting conventional and HF QRS 12-lead ECGs in 66 patients with cardiomyopathy (EF = 23.2 plus or minus 6.l%, mean plus or minus SD) and in 66 age- and gender-matched healthy controls using PC-based ECG software recently developed at NASA. The single most accurate ECG parameter for detecting cardiomyopathy was an HF QRS morphological score that takes into consideration the total number and severity of reduced amplitude zones (RAZs) present plus the clustering of RAZs together in contiguous leads. This RAZ score had an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of 0.91, and was 88% sensitive, 82% specific and 85% accurate for identifying cardiomyopathy at optimum score cut-off of 140 points. Although conventional ECG parameters such as the QRS and QTc intervals were also significantly longer in patients than controls (P less than 0.001, BBBs excluded), these conventional parameters were less accurate (area under the ROC = 0.77 and 0.77, respectively) than HF QRS morphological parameters for identifying underlying cardiomyopathy. The total amplitude of the HF QRS complexes, as measured by summed root mean square voltages (RMSVs), also differed between patients and controls (33.8 plus or minus 11.5 vs. 41.5 plus or minus 13.6 mV, respectively, P less than 0.003), but this parameter was even less accurate in distinguishing the two groups (area under ROC = 0.67) than the HF QRS morphologic and conventional ECG parameters. Diagnostic accuracy was optimal (86%) when the RAZ score from the HF QRS ECG and the QTc interval from the conventional ECG were used simultaneously with cut-offs of greater than or equal to 40 points and greater than or equal to 445 ms, respectively. In conclusion 12-lead HF QRS ECG employing RAZ scoring is a simple, accurate and inexpensive screening technique for cardiomyopathy. Although HF QRS ECG is highly sensitive for cardiomyopathy, its specificity may be compromised in patients with cardiac pathologies other than cardiomyopathy, such as uncomplicated coronary artery disease or multiple coronary disease risk factors. Further studies are required to determine whether HF QRS might be useful for monitoring cardiomyopathy severity or the efficacy of therapy in a longitudinal fashion.
Schlegel, Todd T.↗
Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning from Long-Duration Spaceflight
Due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is safer and more practical to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to produce the oscillatory frequency and displacement equivalent of walking on a treadmill at a 4 mph pace. A fast Fourier transform (FFT)was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. Peak oscillation frequencies achieved with the manual chair were lower and more variable than those of treadmill walking and the automatic chair. This can mostly be attributed to operator fatigue. However, DVA scores across conditions were not significantly different, indicating that the manual chair can provide adequate vertical oscillation frequency and displacement with the added advantage of being portable enough for testing outside a laboratory. Furthermore the automatic chair very closely matches the oscillation frequency of treadmill walking, making it an ideal method for testing DVA in a laboratory setting.
Kreutzberg, G. A.↗
Evaluation and ranking of candidate ceramic wafer engine seal materials
Modern engineered ceramics offer high temperature capabilities not found in even the best superalloy metals. The high temperature properties of several selected ceramics including aluminum oxide, silicon carbide, and silicon nitride are reviewed as they apply to hypersonic engine seal design. A ranking procedure is employed to objectively differentiate among four different monolithic ceramic materials considered, including: a cold-pressed and sintered aluminum oxide; a sintered alpha-phase silicon carbide; a hot-isostatically pressed silicon nitride; and a cold-pressed and sintered silicon nitride. This procedure is used to narrow the wide range of potential ceramics considered to an acceptable number for future detailed and costly analyses and tests. The materials are numerically scored according to their high temperature flexural strength; high temperature thermal conductivity; resistance to crack growth; resistance to high heating rates; fracture toughness; Weibull modulus; and finally according to their resistance to leakage flow, where materials having coefficients of thermal expansion closely matching the engine panel material resist leakage flow best. The cold-pressed and sintered material (Kyocera SN-251) ranked the highest in the overall ranking especially when implemented in engine panels made of low expansion rate materials being considered for the engine, including Incoloy and titanium alloys.
Steinetz, Bruce M.↗
A comparison of head and manual control for a position-control pursuit tracking task
Head control was compared with manual control in a pursuit tracking task involving proportional controlled-element dynamics. An integrated control/display system was used to explore tracking effectiveness in horizontal and vertical axes tracked singly and concurrently. Compared with manual tracking, head tracking resulted in a 50 percent greater rms error score, lower pilot gain, greater high-frequency phase lag and greater low-frequency remnant. These differences were statistically significant, but differences between horizontal- and vertical-axis tracking and between 1- and 2-axis tracking were generally small and not highly significant. Manual tracking results were matched with the optimal control model using pilot-related parameters typical of those found in previous manual control studies. Head tracking performance was predicted with good accuracy using the manual tracking model plus a model for head/neck response dynamics obtained from the literature.
Levison, W. H.↗
The IPAC Image Subtraction and Discovery Pipeline for the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory
We describe the near real-time transient-source discovery engine for the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF), currently in operations at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC), Caltech. We coin this system the IPAC/iPTF Discovery Engine (or IDE). We review the algorithms used for PSF-matching, image subtraction, detection, photometry, and machine-learned (ML) vetting of extracted transient candidates. We also review the performance of our ML classifier. For a limiting signal-to-noise ratio of 4 in relatively unconfused regions, bogus candidates from processing artifacts and imperfect image subtractions outnumber real transients by approximately equal to 10:1. This can be considerably higher for image data with inaccurate astrometric and/or PSF-matching solutions. Despite this occasionally high contamination rate, the ML classifier is able to identify real transients with an efficiency (or completeness) of approximately equal to 97% for a maximum tolerable false-positive rate of 1% when classifying raw candidates. All subtraction-image metrics, source features, ML probability-based real-bogus scores, contextual metadata from other surveys, and possible associations with known Solar System objects are stored in a relational database for retrieval by the various science working groups. We review our efforts in mitigating false-positives and our experience in optimizing the overall system in response to the multitude of science projects underway with iPTF.
methods: analytical – methods: data analysis –↗
Feasibility of Turing-Style Tests for Autonomous Aerial Vehicle "Intelligence"
A new approach is suggested to define and evaluate key metrics as to autonomous aerial vehicle performance. This approach entails the conceptual definition of a "Turing Test" for UAVs. Such a "UAV Turing test" would be conducted by means of mission simulations and/or tailored flight demonstrations of vehicles under the guidance of their autonomous system software. These autonomous vehicle mission simulations and flight demonstrations would also have to be benchmarked against missions "flown" with pilots/human-operators in the loop. In turn, scoring criteria for such testing could be based upon both quantitative mission success metrics (unique to each mission) and by turning to analog "handling quality" metrics similar to the well-known Cooper-Harper pilot ratings used for manned aircraft. Autonomous aerial vehicles would be considered to have successfully passed this "UAV Turing Test" if the aggregate mission success metrics and handling qualities for the autonomous aerial vehicle matched or exceeded the equivalent metrics for missions conducted with pilots/human-operators in the loop. Alternatively, an independent, knowledgeable observer could provide the "UAV Turing Test" ratings of whether a vehicle is autonomous or "piloted." This observer ideally would, in the more sophisticated mission simulations, also have the enhanced capability of being able to override the scripted mission scenario and instigate failure modes and change of flight profile/plans. If a majority of mission tasks are rated as "piloted" by the observer, when in reality the vehicle/simulation is fully- or semi- autonomously controlled, then the vehicle/simulation "passes" the "UAV Turing Test." In this regards, this second "UAV Turing Test" approach is more consistent with Turing s original "imitation game" proposal. The overall feasibility, and important considerations and limitations, of such an approach for judging/evaluating autonomous aerial vehicle "intelligence" will be discussed from a theoretical perspective.
Young, Larry A.↗
Neurobehavioral Effects Of Five-Ion GCRSim Exposure In Male And Female Mice
Exposure to space galactic cosmic radiation is a principal consideration of spaceflight missions, and with upcoming missions to the Moon and Mars, it is increasingly imperative to elucidate the detrimental effects of space travel beyond the lower Earth orbit. Additionally, with the first female astronaut to soon travel to the Moon and beyond lower Earth orbit, there is a strong need to understand the biological sex differences to adaptation to the deep space environment. While the effects of spaceflight on the nervous system are not fully known, studies in animal models have shown that exposure to ionizing radiation can cause neuronal damage and lead to downstream cognitive and behavioral deficits. Therefore, we investigated the neurobehavioral responses to space environment-like radiation exposure. Male and female 23–24-week-old mice (age-matched to average astronaut age) were exposed to 5, 15 and 50 cGy via Five-Ion Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulation at the NASA National Space Radiation Laboratory at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Both early (72hrs post exposure) and late (1-4 months post exposure) cognitive and behavioral deficits were investigated. In-cage behavior was analyzed as frequency/duration of digging, rearing, and grooming and nestlet building using a 5-stage Deacon score. Additionally, at NASA Ames, behavior tests included Catwalk (gait), Zero Maze (anxiety), Adhesive Removal (sensory motor), Novel Object Recognition and Barnes Maze (working memory). There were pronounced sex differences in both early and late time points. Females typically performed the tests better than males, specifically in nestlet building, gait and working memory, though males performed better at the sensory motor (adhesive removal) test. Dose effects were primarily observed at 50 cGy for both sexes, particularly with the Barnes Maze (working memory), where both males and females exposed to 50 cGy showed little to no improvement in test performance, though females again performed better than males. Currently, we are investigating the correlations between the observed behavior and cytokine levels in the plasma and brain. Future studies will continue to investigate cognitive consequences of galactic cosmic radiation in combination with other space-like environment stressors, including antigravity and social versus single housing.
Stephanie Puukila↗
Neurobehavioral Effects Of Five-Ion GCRSim Exposure In Male And Female Mice
Exposure to space galactic cosmic radiation is a principal consideration of spaceflight missions, and with upcoming missions to the Moon and Mars, it is increasingly imperative to elucidate the detrimental effects of space travel beyond the lower Earth orbit. Additionally, with the first female astronaut to soon travel to the Moon and beyond lower Earth orbit, there is a strong need to understand the biological sex differences to adaptation to the deep space environment. While the effects of spaceflight on the nervous system are not fully known, studies in animal models have shown that exposure to ionizing radiation can cause neuronal damage and lead to downstream cognitive and behavioral deficits. Therefore, we investigated the neurobehavioral responses to space environment-like radiation exposure. Male and female 23–24-week-old mice (age-matched to average astronaut age) were exposed to 5, 15 and 50 cGy via Five-Ion Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulation at the NASA National Space Radiation Laboratory at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Both early (72hrs post exposure) and late (1-4 months post exposure) cognitive and behavioral deficits were investigated. In-cage behavior was analyzed as frequency/duration of digging, rearing, and grooming and nestlet building using a 5-stage Deacon score. Additionally, at NASA Ames, behavior tests included Catwalk (gait), Zero Maze (anxiety), Adhesive Removal (sensory motor), Novel Object Recognition and Barnes Maze (working memory). There were pronounced sex differences in both early and late time points. Females typically performed the tests better than males, specifically in nestlet building, gait and working memory, though males performed better at the sensory motor (adhesive removal) test. Dose effects were primarily observed at 50 cGy for both sexes, particularly with the Barnes Maze (working memory), where both males and females exposed to 50 cGy showed little to no improvement in test performance, though females again performed better than males. Currently, we are investigating the correlations between the observed behavior and cytokine levels in the plasma and brain. Future studies will continue to investigate cognitive consequences of galactic cosmic radiation in combination with other space-like environment stressors, including antigravity and social versus single housing.
S. Puukila↗
Pre-Flight Training of Autonomic Responses for Mitigating the Effects of Spatial Disorientation During Spaceflight
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified a potential risk of spatial disorientation, motion sickness, and degraded performance to astronauts during re-entry and landing of the proposed Orion crew vehicle. The purpose of this study was to determine if a physiological training procedure, Autogenic-Feedback Training Exercise (AFTE), can mitigate these adverse effects. Fourteen men and six women were assigned to two groups (AFTE, no-treatment Control) matched for motion sickness susceptibility and gender. All subjects received a standard rotating chair test to determine motion sickness susceptibility; three training sessions on a manual performance task; and four exposures in the rotating chair (Orion tests) simulating angular accelerations of the crew vehicle during re-entry. AFTE subjects received 2 hours of training before Orion tests 2, 3, and 4. Motion sickness symptoms, task performance, and physiological measures were recorded on all subjects. Results showed that the AFTE group had significantly lower symptom scores when compared to Controls on test 2 (p=.05), test 3 (p=.03), and test 4 (p=.02). Although there were no significant group differences on task performance, trends showed that AFTE subjects were less impaired than Controls. Heart rate change scores (20 revolutions per minute minus baseline) of AFTE subjects indicated significantly less reactivity on Test 4 compared to Test 1 (10.09 versus 16.59, p=.02), while Controls did not change significantly across tests. Results of this study indicate that AFTE may be an effective countermeasure for mitigating spatial dis-orientation and motion sickness in astronauts.
Orion↗