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DOE OSTI2023

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enriching the physics program of the CMS experiment via data scouting and data parking

Specialized data-taking and data-processing techniques were introduced by the CMS experiment in Run 1 of the CERN LHC to enhance the sensitivity of searches for new physics and the precision of standard model measurements. These techniques, termed data scouting and data parking, extend the data-taking capabilities of CMS beyond the original design specifications. The novel data-scouting strategy trades complete event information for higher event rates, while keeping the data bandwidth within limits. Data parking involves storing a large amount of raw detector data collected by algorithms with low trigger thresholds to be processed when sufficient computational power is available to handle such data. The research program of the CMS Collaboration is greatly expanded with these techniques. The implementation, performance, and physics results obtained with data scouting and data parking in CMS over the last decade are discussed in this Report, along with new developments aimed at further improving low-mass physics sensitivity over the next years of data taking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coreii - Scout

COREII Scout employs React, Vite, TypeScript, Tailwind, and Daisy UI for its graphical user interface (GUI), offering both dark and light modes. The code is modular, with components and reusable wrappers to enhance efficiency. The primary goal of COREII Scout is to aid analysts in collecting and analyzing various sources related to cyber attacks, utilizing models to automate the report writing process. It uses Named Entity Recognition (NER), a type of Natural Language Processing (NLP), to extract key entities from each source. Analysts review and classify these entities using the COREII Attack Chain Estimator (ACE), adding their comments. Ultimately, a Large Language Model (LLM) generates a detailed report with user guidance. This setup ensures a streamlined and effective approach to cyber attack analysis and reporting.

Pluth, Adam [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling heat pipe startup and noncondensable gases in Sockeye

For this work, a one-dimensional gas mixture flow model was developed and implemented in the heat pipe code Sockeye to model the effects of noncondensable gases. Additionally, a startup model based on the dusty gas model was implemented to model the transition from rarefied gas dynamics to continuum flow, which occurs during the frozen startup of high-temperature heat pipes. Multiple startup and noncondensable gas models were tested against experimental data for sodium heat pipes, showing excellent agreement. Additionally, the newly developed gas mixture model for modeling noncondensable gas is further tested with a theoretical case study with arbitrary heating configurations. Finally, several recommendations and conclusions are made from the studies in this work to guide future heat pipe modeling efforts.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Searches for Pair-Produced Multijet Resonances Using Data Scouting in Proton-Proton Collisions at s = 13 TeV

Searches for pair-produced multijet signatures using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 128 fb - 1 of proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV are presented. A data scouting technique is employed to record events with low jet scalar transverse momentum sum values. The electroweak production of particles predicted in R -parity violating supersymmetric models is probed for the first time with fully hadronic final states. This is the first search for prompt hadronically decaying mass-degenerate higgsinos, and extends current exclusions on R -parity violating top squarks and gluinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for dijet resonances with data scouting in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search is presented for narrow resonances, with a mass between 0.6 and 1.8 TeV, decaying to pairs of jets, in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV. The search is performed using dijets that are reconstructed, selected, and recorded in a compact form by the high-level trigger in a technique referred to as “data scouting”, from data collected in 2016–2018 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 117 fb −1 . The dijet mass spectra are well described by a smooth parameterization, and no significant evidence for the production of new particles is observed. Model-independent upper limits are presented on the product of the cross section, branching fraction, and acceptance for the individual cases of narrow quark-quark, quark-gluon, and gluon-gluon resonances, and are compared to the predictions from a variety of models of narrow dijet resonance production. The upper limit on the coupling of a dark matter mediator to quarks is presented as a function of the mediator mass. The sensitivity of this search goes beyond what is expected from statistical scaling with the integrated luminosity alone, as a consequence of the use of fewer parameters in the background function within a more robust statistical procedure.

beyond Standard Model↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻ Using Run 3 Scouting Data Analyze b-tagging and tau-tagging Performance with Unified Particle Transformer

B-tagging and tau-tagging performances play an important role in the search for the rare event HH → bbτ⁺τ⁻. A transformer-based neural network, Unified Particle Transformer, is applied for both tagging tasks, and Run 3 proton–proton collision scouting data at center-of-mass energy of 13.6 TeV is used. The scouting data stream accepts events at a much higher rate compared to traditional triggers, but stores only the objects reconstructed in the trigger, no low-level detector information. Therefore, existing taggers trained for the offline event reconstruction cannot be used. Analysis of the SoftMax plots, ROC/AUC curves, confusion matrix, accuracy and losses are used to evaluate model performance. Specifically, the tagging efficiency of the signal and misidentification probability across multiple background processes are compared for varying working points. Different training samples with distinct distributions of jet flavors are utilized and related model performances are analyzed. Interpretability methods, such as Integrated Gradients, may further be applied to study the input features’ influence on the model’s decisions, providing insights into potential improvements.

Chen, Blair [Purdue U., West Lafayette; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hiding in the Shadow of the Upsilon: Ditaus from a Light Pseudoscalar

The CMS collaboration has reported a measurement of $Υ$ decays to ditaus using $61.9~{\rm fb}^{-1}$ of scouting data. If interpreted as the decay of $Υ(1S,2S,3S)$, the measured ditau rate is more than ten times that seen in the dimuon final states at the $\sim 3 σ$ level, and is likewise inconsistent with the branching ratios measured at $B$-factories. If confirmed with more data and at higher significance, such a violation of lepton flavor universality would necessitate new physics. In this Letter, we present a simple model with a light pseudoscalar coincidentally near the $Υ(1S)$ mass, which mixes with two Higgs doublets in the alignment limit. Such a particle naturally decays primarily to taus and evades all existing experimental constraints, while implying a number of predictions that can be tested in the near future.

Buckley, Matthew R. [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sockeye Code Validation Against UNIST Heat Pipe - Poster - Internship 2025

Sockeye is an engineering level code being developed under the MOOSE framework for modeling heat pipes. A heat pipe is a sealed tube with a wick structure filled with a working fluid that transfers heat efficiently and passively via phase change of the working fluid. Heat applied to the evaporator end creates a pressure gradient which causes vapor to migrate to the condenser end where the vapor deposits its energy and condenses. Capillary force generated by the wick structure then draws the liquid back to the evaporator. A validation study was performed to compare the Sockeye code against data produced at the Ulsan National Institute of Standards and Technology for a slightly overfilled sodium heat pipe. The heat pipe was operated under natural convection cooling and a decreasing inactive length was observed. The experiment was modeled in Sockeye using the condenser pool model, the front non-condensable gas (NCG) model, and the mixture NCG model separately to reproduce the inactive length phenomenon. Also, a new capability was implemented in MOOSE to allow for conjugate heat transfer from the condenser based on the Churchill-Chu correlation for natural convection. The condenser pool model showed an increasing inactive length, demonstrating that the behavior was likely not caused by a pool of excess liquid. The front NCG model was able to show good agreement with the experiment, but it suffered convergence issues at the front. Finally, the mixture NCG model gave good results when the axial mesh was sufficiently refined. This work culminated in additions to the Sockeye documentation and a contribution to a journal article that will be published later. This poster is a summary of my work which I can take back to my university for presentation.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Gas Plume Identification Using Nearest Neighbor Methods for Background Estimation

Longwave infrared (LWIR) hyperspectral imaging (HSI) can be used for many tasks in remote sensing, including detecting and identifying effluent gases by LWIR sensors on airborne platforms. Identification is used after detection to increase confidence in weakly detected plumes, reduce false positives from detection, and distinguish between similar and confounding material signatures. Background estimation is an important step used to reveal the unique spectral characteristics of the detected gas, allowing the identification model to determine what the gas is specifically. The importance of proper background estimation increases when dealing with weak signals, large libraries of gases of interest, and uncommon or heterogeneous backgrounds. In this article, we propose two methods for background estimation: a novel k-nearest segments (KNS) algorithm and the standard k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm. We test our methods and three existing background estimation methods for comparison against global background estimation to determine which performs best at estimating the true background radiance under a plume and for increasing identification confidence using a neural network classification model. We compare the different methods using 640 simulated weak plumes in an urban environment. For identification, our KNS algorithm improves median neural network identification confidence by 53.2%. For background radiance estimation, the KNN algorithm provides a median of 49 times less RMSE than global background estimation. Furthermore, KNN is the easiest method to tune for different plumes, making it an excellent “out of the box” background estimator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Towards time-resolved MicroED grid preparation using mix-and-inject gas dynamic virtual nozzles

Recent progress in gas dynamic virtual nozzle (GDVN) technologies in combination with high-brilliance synchrotron and X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has allowed the visualization of protein dynamics in crystallo by mixing macromolecular protein crystals with a substrate using tunable mixing times on the order of milliseconds to seconds prior to serial X-ray diffraction data collection. This has become the method of choice for high-resolution structure determination of intermediate states. However, such experiments require large counts of crystals of proper sizes for high-resolution data collection, and premium beam times for screening efforts. Cryogenic microcrystal electron diffraction (MicroED) represents a complementary technique that may be a more accessible avenue for time-resolved nanocrystallography compared with serial X-ray diffraction experiments. MicroED can produce full diffraction datasets from just a few submicrometre-thick crystals, and the approach is more readily accessible, requiring standard cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (TEM) equipment available at many universities and institutes. Cryogenic MicroED, like other forms of cryo-EM, begins with rapidly freezing biological material on electron microscopy grids. In the case of MicroED, micro- to nano-crystals (<500 nm thick) are deposited onto electron microscopy grids and plunge-frozen for subsequent electron diffraction data collection. Here, we have incorporated GDVN technology developed originally for XFEL experiments into the freezing process as a first step towards time-resolved studies. We describe the limited deposition efficiency of the model MicroED protein proteinase K on TEM grids using GDVNs, preceding sample vitrification and successful MicroED data collection. We discuss both the initial results from such experiments and the methodological challenges in developing this approach into a reliable workflow for millisecond-to-second time-resolved structural studies of macromolecules. Our results promise a strategy to deposit crystals on grids using GDVNs and determine high-resolution structures by MicroED, constituting a first step towards development of time-resolved MicroED experiments.

MicroED↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗