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At least 19 records

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracturing in granitic rocks using active and passive seismic monitoring

SUMMARY Knowledge of the fracturing processes can be important for the optimization of pressurized fluid injection operations in the deep underground rock mass. Active and passive seismic monitoring techniques have been used in the field for tracking or mapping the propagating hydraulic fracture. Although both these monitoring techniques provide valuable information about the generated fracture network, it is difficult for either technique to comprehensibly identify the different processes associated with hydraulic fracturing. The combined active and passive monitoring has the potential for better characterization of the complex hydraulic fracturing phenomena. In this study, laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments with combined active and passive seismic monitoring were conducted on true triaxially loaded Barre granite cubes with different fluid injection rates. The seismic inelastic fracturing was detected by 16 passive acoustic emission sensors, where 3678 and 2370 seismic source events were detected for the high and low injection rate experiments, respectively. For active monitoring, strong variations in the attributes of signals were observed which were transmitted through four source–receiver pairs, placed both perpendicular and parallel to the generated hydraulic fracture. Positive velocity changes were observed for active sensor pairs with ray paths passing through the generated hydraulic fracture indicating fluid permeation, whereas isolated dry deformation was characterized by a slight but permanent velocity decrease. Compared to velocity, the energy of the active signals was 1–2 orders of magnitude more sensitive to different hydraulic fracturing processes. However, the sensitivity and signatures of the active signal attributes were found to be dependent on the frequency range and direction of ray path with respect to the location of the generated fracture network. Using the coupled evaluation of the active and passive signals we were able to systematically identify various hydraulic fracturing processes including: (1) aseismic deformation, (2) fracture initiation and fluid permeation, (3) pressure build-up, (4) fracture propagation and (5) pressure release and leak-off. The results of this study showed that combining the respective advantages of active and passive seismic techniques and using both of them to monitor the failure processes can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding and better control of the hydraulic stimulations in subsurface operations.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Integration of seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion of continuous active-seismic monitoring data for monitoring and quantifying CO 2 plume (Final Report)

The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated package of joint seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion (jSPPI) of continuous active-source seismic monitoring dataset capable of providing real-time monitoring of CO 2 plume during geologic carbon sequestration (GCS). The three specific developments include: (a) the methodologies for fast seismic full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring, (CASSM) datasets for simultaneously estimating velocity and attenuation, and with data assimilation; (b) joint Bayesian petrophysical inversion of seismic models and pressure data for providing and updating CO 2 saturation models; (c) the methods using multiple datasets including (Crainfield and Frio-II borehole) synthetic, laboratory, and field CASSM datasets. The outcomes of jSPPI include (a) a workflow for processing CASSM data, (b) Bayesian inversion algorithms using CASSM data and pressure response data, and (c) integration with data assimilation algorithms for continuously updating site-specific models used for prediction and reservoir management. The validation of joint FWI will be conducted using synthetic models based on the Cranfield and Frio experiments as well as field CASSM datasets collected as part of the Frio-II pilot injection. To quantify and map the mass and distribution of CO 2 (saturation), we will jointly invert velocity and attenuation measurements from the FWI with a Bayesian approach using a rock physics model for attenuation (e.g., White’s attenuation model with two selected patch sizes (White, 1976; Dutta and Seriff, 1979)). The Bayesian inversion will be applied to each time step in the CASSM survey in an updating scheme, which integrates with an ensemble of reservoir simulations at each step. A more complete experimental validation dataset will be collected as part of a mesoscale (2-3 m) gas-CO 2 injection experiment utilizing a higher frequency version of the CASSM system developed for laboratory studies; the integrated inversion will be demonstrated using this dataset which will provide both a dense geometry as well as more precise secondary confirmation measurements (e.g. saturation) typically not available in the field. The resulting real-time map of CO 2 saturation is able to provide a deeper scientific understanding of the complex, time-varying dynamics of subsurface fluid flow migration path as well as the rapid detection of CO 2 leakage hazards.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Apollo 14 and 16 Active Seismic Experiments, and Apollo 17 Lunar Seismic Profiling

Seismic refraction experiments were conducted on the moon by Apollo astronauts during missions 14, 16, and 17. Seismic velocities of 104, 108, 92, 114 and 100 m/sec were inferred for the lunar regolith at the Apollo 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites, respectively. These data indicate that fragmentation and comminution caused by meteoroid impacts has produced a layer of remarkably uniform seismic properties moonwide. Brecciation and high porosity are the probable causes of the very low velocities observed in the lunar regolith. Apollo 17 seismic data revealed that the seismic velocity increases very rapidly with depth to 4.7 km/sec at a depth of 1.4 km. Such a large velocity change is suggestive of compositional and textural changes and is compatible with a model of fractured basaltic flows overlying anorthositic breccias. 'Thermal' moonquakes were also detected at the Apollo 17 site, becoming increasingly frequent after sunrise and reaching a maximum at sunset. The source of these quakes could possibly be landsliding.

Source record↗

Investigations of acoustic-seismic effects at long range - Early-arriving seismic waves from Apollo 16

A reasonably comprehensive technical effort is described dealing with the investigations of acoustically generated seismic waves of Apollo 16 and Apollo 17 origin along the eastern seabord of the United States. This expanded effort is a continuation of earlier, rather successful detections of rocket-generated seismic disturbances on Skidaway Island, Georgia. The more recent effort has yielded few positive results other than a recording of an early-arriving seismic wave from Apollo 16 that was detected in Jacksonville. Evaluation of the negative results obtained in the Fort Monmouth area, with earlier studies of infrasound, local weather conditions, and geology, could be advantageous in the process of trying to gain a better insight into the acoustic-seismic resonance mechanism requiring phase-velocity matching at the atmosphere-ground interface.

Dalins, I.↗

Estimation of the Seismic Moment Release Rate of Mars from InSight Seismic Data

Seismicity models for Mars usually estimate the long-term average annual seismic moment rate, and also the average annual event rate. This holds for estimations based on geological evidence (Golombek et al., 1992, Golombek, 2002, Taylor et al., 2013) as well as for models based on thermal evolution and cooling of the Martian interior (Phillips, 1991, Knapmeyer et al., 2006, Plesa et al., 2018). All studies are compatible with the conclusion based on the non-observation of any unambiguous event by Viking (Anderson et al., 1977, Goins & Lazarewicz, 1979) that Martian seismicity lies somewhere between that of the Moon and that of the Earth. We developed tools to derive reasonable estimations of the annual seismic moment rate from a number of events as small as one, provided that the observed events are beyond the global completeness threshold for observable events. Numerical tests as well as evaluation of terrestrial data shows the feasibility of the approach.

Knapmeyer, Martin↗

Application of normal mode theory to seismic source and structure problems: Seismic investigations of upper mantle lateral heterogeneity

The theory of the normal modes of the earth is investigated and used to build synthetic seismograms in order to solve source and structural problems. A study is made of the physical properties of spheroidal modes leading to a rational classification. Two problems addressed are the observability of deep isotropic seismic sources and the investigation of the physical properties of the earth in the neighborhood of the Core-Mantle boundary, using SH waves diffracted at the core's surface. Data sets of seismic body and surface waves are used in a search for possible deep lateral heterogeneities in the mantle. In both cases, it is found that seismic data do not require structural differences between oceans and continents to extend deeper than 250 km. In general, differences between oceans and continents are found to be on the same order of magnitude as the intrinsic lateral heterogeneity in the oceanic plate brought about by the aging of the oceanic lithosphere.

Okal, E. A.↗

Seismic monitoring of underground vibration: database of seismic data and ground truth

Seismic waves provide valuable insights into underground activities, serving as an essential tool for monitoring anomalies that could signal containment breaches in geological repositories. We aim to test and refine underground detection and geolocation techniques to identify anomalous vibration signals indicative of potential breaches, thereby strengthening georepository safeguards. We evaluate the effectiveness of two distinct, low-maintenance sensing technologies (surface geophones and underground distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) fiber optic cable) leveraging existing datasets. This report details the experimental designs, instrumentation, and data characteristics for both seismic and DAS arrays. Additionally, we provide a ground truth database documenting relevant operational activities for each experiment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic analysis of the large 70-meter antenna. Part 2: General dynamic response and a seismic safety check

An extensive dynamic analysis for the new JPL 70-meter antenna structure is presented. Analytical procedures are based on the normal mode decomposition which include dumping and special forcing functions. The dynamic response can be obtained for any arbitrarily selected point on the structure. A new computer program for computing the time-dependent, resultant structural displacement, summing the effects of all participating modes, was developed also. Program compatibility with natural frequency analysis output was verified. The program was applied to the JPL 70-meter antenna structure and the dynamic response for several specially selected points was computed. Seismic analysis of structures, a special application of the general dynamic analysis, is based also on the normal modal decomposition. Strength specification of the antenna, with respect to the earthquake excitation, is done by using the common response spectra. The results indicated basically a safe design under an assumed 5% or more damping coefficient. However, for the antenna located at Goldstone, with more active seismic environment, this study strongly recommends and experimental program that determines the true damping coefficient for a more reliable safety check.

Kiedron, K.↗

Finite difference simulations of seismic scattering Implications for the propagation of short-period seismic waves in the crust and models of crustal heterogeneity

Synthetic seismographs that were obtained by the finite difference method are presently applied to the study of elastic and acoustic wave scattering in two-dimensional media with random spatial variations in seismic velocity. The seismograms are analyzed to determine the variation in travel times and waveforms across arrays of receivers. The random media with Gaussian and exponential correlation functions considered differ in the spectral falloff of their velocity fluctuations at wavelengths smaller than 2pi times the correlation distance. It is found that alternative models of crustal heterogeneity can be tested by improved measurements of the frequency dependence of the crustal Q at frequencies greater than about 1 Hz, assuming that scattering is responsible for most of the attenuation at such frequencies.

Frankel, A.↗

A High-Sensitivity Broad-Band Seismic Sensor for Shallow Seismic Sounding of the Lunar Regolith

The recently undertaken Space Exploration Initiative has prompted a renewed interest in techniques for characterizing the surface and shallow subsurface (0-10s of meters depth) of the Moon. There are several reasons for this: First, there is an intrinsic scientific interest in the subsurface structure. For example the stratigraphy, depth to bedrock, density/porosity, and block size distribution all have implications for the formation of, and geological processes affecting the surface, such as sequential crater ejecta deposition, impact gardening, and seismic settling. In some permanently shadowed craters there may be ice deposits just below the surface. Second, the geotechnical properties of the lunar surface layers are of keen interest to future mission planners. Regolith thickness, strength, density, grain size and compaction will affect construction of exploration infrastructure in terms of foundation strength and stability, ease of excavation, radiation shielding effectiveness, as well as raw material handling and processing techniques for resource extraction.

Pike, W. Thomas↗

Analysis of Lunar Seismic Signals: Determination of Instrumental Parameters and Seismic Velocity Distributions

Inverse filters were designed to correct the effect of instrumental response, coupling of the seismometer to the ground, and near surface structures. The least squares technique was used to determine the instrumental constants and the transfer functions of the long period lunar seismographs. The influence of noise and the results of these calculations are discussed.

Horvath, P.↗