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NOVEL APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO SEVERE ACCIDENTS: INTERROGATING MODEL FORM UNCERTAINTY AND DEVELOPING INSIGHTS INTO SEVERE ACCIDENT PROGRESSION.
Abstract not provided.
Severe Accident Phenomena: A Comparison Among the NuScale SMR, Other Advanced LWR Designs, and Operating LWRs
During a severe accident in a nuclear reactor, there are a number of phenomenological events which can present a challenge to containment integrity. These include the generation and combustion of hydrogen, energetic fuel-coolant interactions, thermal attack of fission product barriers, core-concrete interactions, direct containment heating, and gradual overpressurization. The advanced design of the NuScale small modular reactor has resulted in the reduced likelihood and severity of severe accident challenges to containment. This paper discusses the features of the NuScale design that reduce the likelihood of occurrence of these severe accident phenomena, and discusses the ability of containment to survive in the unlikely event that they do occur. Here, the impact of severe accident phenomena for the NuScale design is compared and contrasted against other advanced light water reactors, such as AP1000 and ESBWR, as well as the existing fleet, using information from publicly available documents.
Radiological Releases from Novel Fuel Forms in Advanced Reactors During Severe Accidents for Consequence Analyses
Various advanced reactor developers are exploring the potential for reductions in the size of physical security forces and emergency planning zones. These reductions are based on robust fuel forms and inherently safe reactor designs. However, such reductions in physical protection measures could increase the risk of sabotage. To assess the possibility of reducing these measures, sabotage-induced radiological consequence analyses were carried out. These analyses considered accident scenarios that were beyond design basis accidents and overly conservative (Shah, 2025a; Shah, 2025b; Shah and Hartanto, 2026), yielding very large release fractions. These fractions, which can be used to evaluate physical protection and emergency planning requirements, have been crudely determined and applied as demonstrations for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025a), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025b), a heat pipe–cooled reactor (HPR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025c), and a molten salt–cooled reactor (MSR) (Shah et al., 2026). A Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) team used MELCOR—a fully integrated severe accident analysis code—to demonstrate the code’s capability to analyze advanced (i.e., not light water–cooled) reactors (including a fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor [FHR]) and calculate radiological releases to the environment during severe accidents (Wagner et al., 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, and 2023b). Although the analyses were carried out to demonstrate MELCOR’s growing capability, the release source terms were estimated for advanced reactors, providing valuable insights into the accident progression and radiological releases. These findings from prior SNL studies, including estimated source terms and related sensitivity studies, were leveraged to derive source terms for postulated sabotage-induced accidents. Insights from these sensitivity studies informed the scaling of SNL’s estimated source terms for the defined accident scenarios. The derived release fractions for the severe accident scenarios for the respective reactor designs can be used to perform more nuanced dose consequence analyses to evaluate the reactors’ physical protection and emergency planning zone requirements. These analyses are in accordance with the risk-informed, performance-based approach proposed under 10 CFR Part 53. This study builds on the prior source term analyses and associated sensitivity studies by SNL to derive time-dependent and design-informed release fractions. Section 2 describes the diverse advanced reactor designs analyzed by the SNL team. Section 3 discusses the severe accident analyses, the release fractions calculated, and the limitations and assumptions of the demonstration project. Section 4 presents the release percentages derived for the hypothetical sabotage-induced severe accidents at the advanced reactors. Section 5 summarizes the study’s findings and conclusions.
Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 Mark-I Station Blackout: Part II – Uncertainty Analysis
Single case comparisons between severe accident simulations can provide detailed insights into severe accident model behavior, however, they cannot offer insights into model uncertainty, sensitivity to uncertain parameters, or underlying model biases.Here in this analysis, the single case benchmark comparison of the MELCOR material interaction models for a station blackout (SBO) scenario of a boiling water reactor (BWR) using representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 boundary conditions is expanded to include an uncertainty analysis. As part of this uncertainty analysis, 1200 simulations are performed for each material interaction model (2400 total), with random sampling of 14 uncertain MELCOR input parameters. Input parameters are selected for their impact on models representing core degradation processes. These include candling, fuel rod failure, debris quenching and dryout. The analysis performed here is not a traditional “best-estimate” uncertainty analysis that uses best-estimate parameters or identifies best-estimate figure of merit distributions. Instead, it is an exploratory uncertainty analysis that identifies and interrogates underlying model form biases of the two material interaction models (eutectics and interactive materials models). Uniform distributions are applied to all uncertain parameters to ensure coverage of the model parameter uncertainty space. Key findings from this study include underlying model form biases exhibited by material interaction models, and notable differences in accident progression outcomes between the material interaction models. This uncertainty study extends and confirms the conclusions from the first part of this study, which compared the impact of material interaction modeling on simulation of a short-term station blackout scenario with representative Fukushima Daiichi Unit I boundary conditions. In particular, this study confirms that the eutectics model generally exhibits accelerated degradation and failure of fuel components, the core plate, and the lower head. The eutectics model also has a tendency to exhibit a greater degree of core degradation, greater debris mass formation, and larger debris mass ejection. Finally, the eutectics model exhibits higher maximum temperatures for fuel, cladding, particulate debris, oxidic molten pool, and metallic molten pool components than the interactive materials model; interactive materials model simulations exhibit a soft “limitation” on maximum temperatures that is related to the temperature at which material relocation occurs.
A novel approach for critical heat flux enhancement during severe accident mitigation with removal of radioactive materials from the coolant
In this paper, a new system, which consists of mature and proven technologies, is suggested for simultaneous objectives in nuclear power plants: CHF enhancement and effective decontamination. It consists of multifunctional magnetic nanoparticles and a collector part. CHF enhancement for severe accident mitigation strategies like IVR-ERVC and core catcher is expected along with an efficient decontamination process of target radioactive nuclides, and through the collector part, where external magnetic fields are applied, working fluid can be effectively purified. The multifunctional magnetic nanoparticle possesses potentials to severe accident scenarios based on its distinct characteristics. Also, a nanofluid system is strongly affected by environments and state of the immersed particles; the CHF enhancement can be stably achieved in real applications with proper consideration and optimization.
Material Interactions in Severe Accidents – Benchmarking the MELCOR V2.2 Eutectics Model for a BWR-3 MARK-I Station Blackout: Part I – Single Case Analysis
Here in this analysis, the two material interaction models available in the MELCOR code are benchmarked for a severe accident at a BWR under representative Fukushima Daiichi boundary conditions. This part of the benchmark investigates the impact of each material interaction model on accident progression through a detailed single case analysis. It is found that the eutectics model simulation exhibits more rapid accident progression for the duration of the accident. The slower accident progression exhibited by the interactive materials model simulation, however, allows for a greater degree of core material oxidation and hydrogen generation to occur, as well as elevated core temperatures during the ex-vessel accident phase. The eutectics model simulation exhibits more significant degradation of core components during the late in-vessel accident phase – more debris forms and relocates to the lower plenum before lower head failure. The larger debris bed observed in the eutectics model simulation also reaches higher temperatures, presenting a more significant thermal challenge to the lower head until its failure. At the end of the simulated accident scenario, however, core damage is comparable between both simulations due to significant core degradation that occurs during the ex-vessel phase in the interactive materials model simulation. A key difference between the two models’ performance is the maximum temperatures that can be reached in the core and therefore the maximum ΔT between any two components. When implementing the interactive materials model, users have the option to modify the liquefaction temperature of the ZrO 2 -interactive and UO 2 -interactive materials as a way to mimic early fuel rod failure due to material interactions. Through modification of the liquefaction of high melting point materials with significant mass, users may inadvertently limit maximum core temperatures for fuel, cladding, and debris components.
Use of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Data to Support Severe Accident Consequence Analysis at Locations Without Onsite Meteorological Data
Certain regulatory actions under 10 CFR Parts 50, 52, or the proposed part 53 require the assessment of the potential off-site consequence risks to public safety and the environment from a hypothetical severe accident. As an important part of these analyses, atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) modeling relies heavily on the prevailing weather patterns of a site. When considering future deployment of new reactor designs in areas where historical onsite meteorological data is not available,
High Temperature Steam Oxidation of Irradiated FeCrAl in the Severe Accident Test Station
FeCrAl-UO2 test capsules were fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and irradiated at the Advanced Test Reactor. Following irradiation, samples were sectioned from the irradiated rod and oxidation kinetics were evaluated to access the candidate cladding high-temperature oxidation performance following irradiation. The irradiation was performed at approximately 400°C to a burnup of 10 GWd/MT. The high-temperature oxidation tests were conducted in the ORNL Severe Accident Test Station at 1200 and 1300°C. Weight measurements were taken before and after oxidation testing. Cross-sections of the cladding were metallographically mounted and optical microscopy was performed. Measurements of the oxidation layer before and after high-temperature testing were collected. The results indicate the irradiated FeCrAl C35M alloy provided good thermal stability up to 1200°C.
X-ray and gamma-ray tomographic imaging of fuel relocation inside sodium fast reactor test assemblies during severe accidents
The present work reports on x-ray and gamma-ray high-spatial resolution computerized tomography measurements of the Pin Bundle Metallic Fuel Relocation (PBR) assemblies tested in the Metallic Uranium Safety Experiment (MUSE) facility at Argonne National Lab (ANL). The aim of the study was to characterize fuel relocation structures that develop during severe core accidents pertaining to SFR assemblies; these include but are not limited to advanced core disruption recreated in the PBR-1 assembly, and cladding breach recreated in the PBR-2 assembly. We report the x-ray tomography measurements were able to resolve small quantities of relocation fuel; with increased presence of relocation fuel, the x-ray 1measurements spatially mapped the material but could not resolve the inner regions of these. The gamma-tomography measurements showed improved results, resolving the relocation structures in great detail. The upper plenum of the PBR-1 assembly where the molten uranium was initially inserted presented high structural damage, reflected by the partial and complete disintegration of the central rods. Relocation fuel filled the subchannels, adhering to surviving cladding walls and the assembly casing. In the lower portion of the measured section, the tomogram degrades due to photon starvation effects hinting at the increased amount of relocation fuel potentially plugging the assembly; flow blockage in this section was difficult to determine due to the tomogram’s degradation from photon starvation. Small fragments were observed further down the assembly, dislodged from the initial insertion of the molten material. This section was used as an unperturbed assembly reference, with a calculated blockage of less than 1% from the present fragments. The PBR-2 assembly was characterized by columnar relocation structures propagating through the subchannels. Three of the relocation structures were captured in the measured section, with evidence of cross migration on to adjacent subchannels. The measured section in this assembly captures the leading edge of two structures. The calculated flow blockage was 16% in the planes where the three relocation structures are present, but this quickly decreases to approximately 5% past the leading edge of two of the structures.
An online operator support tool for severe accident management in nuclear power plants using dynamic event trees and deep learning
Not Available
Joint Development of SAS4A Code in Application to Oxide-fueled LFR Severe Accident Analysis
The scope of this project was to pursue specific SAS4A liquid-metal cooled reactor (LMR) safety analysis software extensions to simulate postulated accidents with fuel failures for oxide-fueled Lead-cooled Fast Reactors (LFRs). Since most U.S. LMR experience is on sodium-cooled fast reactor options based on past testing and operation experience with EBR-II and FFTF, the DOE’s legacy fast reactor safety analysis capabilities were focused on metal-fueled pool-type concepts with sodium coolant. In recent years, Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has decided to pursue an LFR design as one of their next generation nuclear technology options because of its favorable safety and economics attributes. Oxide fuel is considered among other fuel options due to previous WEC experience with this fuel form. Development of this new technology requires the availability of adequately accurate computational tools, some of which can be adapted from versions of similar software used for analysis of other LMRs. Although Argonne National Laboratory’s (ANL) SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis software suite (shortened as SAS4A code hereafter for brevity) has the basic capabilities to model LFR system designs, the SAS4A code modules used in the analysis of accidents with fuel/cladding failures lack appropriate models for the unique phenomena that govern as-irradiated oxide-fuel damage mechanisms in lead coolant. Therefore, the objective of this project was to extend the capabilities of SAS4A with mechanistic oxide-fuel failure models in lead coolant for margin to failure assessments, analysis of failure modes, location and timing of failures under different accident scenarios consistent with the whole-plant dynamic response including the reactivity feedback, and assessment of the potential for fuel damage propagation due to potential fission gas jet and fuel-fragment/molten fuel impingement to neighboring fuel pins in an assembly. This report provides mainly a summary of Argonne’s technical contributions in the joint project, but the reports and publications by the Participant team are included as references at the end of the report.
SCALE Analysis of a Fluoride Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor in Support of Severe Accident Analysis
As part of a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission–sponsored project to assess the modeling and simulation capabilities for accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for advanced reactor technologies with SCALE and MELCOR, SCALE was used for the modeling and simulation of a fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). Based on the preconceptual design for a small modular 236 MWth FHR developed by the University of California, Berkeley (PB-FHR-Mk1), a SCALE model of the PB-FHR-Mk1 reactor core was developed. The reactor was modeled at equilibrium state with different fuel compositions in different regions of the reactor. An iterative approach was used to interpolate and mix the burnup-dependent fuel compositions obtained through the depletion calculation of a core slice model. After demonstrating the applicability of SCALE’s multigroup (MG) approach for the simulation of the PB-FHR-Mk1, the resulting equilibrium core was studied in terms of the power profile, the flux profile, temperature reactivity coefficients, and the xenon reactivity. Furthermore, the tritium production rate in the salt coolant was determined, and the dependence of the one-group cross sections on the burnup and location in the reactor core was studied. The results obtained with SCALE were post-processed to provide the MELCOR team with the core inventory and decay heat of the equilibrium core, a zone-wise power profile, temperature feedback coefficients, the tritium production rate, and the xenon worth.
Application of SCALE to Molten Salt Fueled Reactor Physics in Support of Severe Accident Analyses
As part of a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission–sponsored project to assess the modeling and simulation capabilities for accident progression, source term, and consequence analysis for advanced reactor technologies with SCALE and MELCOR, SCALE was used for the modeling and simulation of a molten salt-fueled reactor (MSR). SCALE capabilities for the modeling of MSR physics were demonstrated based on the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE). Of primary interest were the determination of the system’s nuclide inventory, as well as the inventories in the various regions of the loop, considering that the fuel is continuously pumped through the system. This report contains discussions on the following: 1. Determination of the system-average fuel salt inventory considering fission gas removal in the off-gas system and noble metal removal through plating out at the heat exchanger using recent enhancements in SCALE’s depletion sequence TRITON, 2. Assessment of the nuclide spatial distribution throughout the loop using SCALE’s depletion solver ORIGEN, 3. Calculation of the core’s power profile, flux profile, temperature reactivity coefficients, and xenon reactivity using full-core calculations with SCALE’s Monte Carlo code KENO-VI. The results obtained with SCALE were post-processed to provide the MELCOR team with the core inventory and decay heat of the system, as well as the inventory and decay heat of individual regions in the loop, a zone-wise power profile, temperature feedback coefficients, and the xenon worth.
Progress in Developing Thermochimica Modeling Capabilities to Aid in Simulating Severe Accidents in MELCOR.
Abstract not provided.
MODELING HEAT PIPE REACTORS IN THE MELCOR SEVERE ACCIDENT CODE.
Abstract not provided.
MELCOR Integrated Severe Accident Code Demonstration and Sensitivity Study of HTGR Accident Progression.
Abstract not provided.