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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structural and compositional complexities of hierarchical self-assembly: A hypergraph approach

Programmable self-assembly enables the construction of complex molecular, supramolecular, and crystalline architectures from well-designed building blocks. In this work, we introduce a hypergraph-based formalism, Blocks & Bonds (B&B), which generalizes classical chemical graph theory by incorporating directed and multicolored interactions, internal symmetries, and hierarchical organization. Within this framework, we develop the Structure Code (SC), a compact and versatile language for describing self-assembled architectures. We define a Kolmogorov-style structural complexity as the total information content of SC, obtained through its tokenization and Shannon information assignment. Complementing this encoding-based measure, we introduce a much simpler quantity, the compositional complexity, which depends only on the number and cumulative usage of block and bond types in the construction set. A central result of this work is a strong empirical correlation between the token-based structural complexity and the compositional complexity across all examined systems. Owing to this agreement, the compositional complexity emerges as the most practical and broadly applicable measure: it is easy to compute, requires no explicit encoding, and yet closely tracks the actual information content of structurally diverse architectures. Applications to molecular systems (ethylene glycol and glucose), DNA-origami lattices, and crystalline assemblies show that B&B hypergraphs provide a unified, scalable, and information-efficient representation of structural organization, naturally capturing symmetry, modularity, and stereochemistry. This framework establishes a quantitative foundation for complexity-aware classification and inverse design of programmable matter.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Environmental Controls on Water Vapor Deuterium Excess in the Coastal Boundary Layer: An Information Theory Perspective

We use information theory to quantify the environmental controls on water vapor deuterium excess (D-excess) in coastal Southern California from June 2023 through February 2024. Using Shannon entropy, mutual information (MI), and joint mutual information, metrics that capture both linear and nonlinear relationships, we identify the most informative variables and variable combinations governing D-excess across contrasting marine and continental regimes. Relative humidity with respect to sea surface temperature (RHS) is consistently the strongest individual predictor, explaining up to 27% of D-excess variability during marine conditions but only 10% in continental air masses. The Relative humidity(RHS) + sea surface temperature (SST) combination demonstrates synergistic effects, where their joint influence (explaining up to 36% of D-excess variability) exceeds what either variable achieves individually, confirming their coupled influence on deuterium excess. Wind direction complements RHS most effectively during continental conditions. The best three-variable combination (RHS + SST + Planetary Boundary Layer height) explains 38% of D-excess variability in marine air, while no combination exceeds 20% explanatory power during continental periods. Information theory shows that heteroscedasticity in D-excess relationships indicates regime shifts in controlling processes and quantifies fundamental constraints on predictor variables: some environmental factors like surface pressure or water vapor flux contain insufficient information content to explain D-excess variability regardless of their physical relevance. These results highlight the different predictability limits between marine and continental regimes, challenging the adequacy of linear models and providing a rigorous framework for quantifying the information content of isotope-climate relationships with implications for both modern and paleoclimate applications.

information theory↗

EXCHANGE Campaign Degradation (ECD): Understanding Decomposition Dynamics Across Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes Coastal Ecosystems

The EXploration of Coastal Hydrobiogeochemistry Across a Network of Gradients and Experiments (EXCHANGE) Degradation Experiment (EXCHANGE-D) is an in situ experiment designed to assess organic matter decomposition rates across coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs), from coastal uplands through transition zones to wetlands. Through a network of partner scientists and coastal sites, we are testing how environmental gradients shape decomposition and carbon dynamics across terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Using standardized tea bag substrates deployed across a network of diverse coastal sites, we compare decomposition rates at different fresh- and salt-water TAIs to develop transferable knowledge that improves the representation of organic matter degradation in coastal ecosystem models. For more information, please see https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/EXCHANGE. This is Version 1 of the data package, which includes: ecd_README.pdf flmd.csv dd.csv ecd_soil_weom_L2.csv ecd_soil_ph_conductivity_L2.csv ecd_soil_gwc_L2.csv ecd_soil_teabag_degradation_L2.csv ecd_readme.pdf

coastal soils↗