Operational modeling requirements for accurate short-range prediction of meso- and synoptic-scale precipitation associated with an Atlantic coastal storm - A case study
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Nappi, A. J.↗
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Remote sensing of atmospheric particulates: Technological innovation and physical limitations in applications to short-range weather prediction
Techniques for remote sensing of particles, from cloud droplet to hailstone size, using optical and microwave frequencies are reviewed. The inherent variability of atmospheric particulates is examined to delineate conditions when the signal can give information to be effectively utilized in a forecasting context. The physical limitations resulting from the phase, size, orientation and concentration variability of the particulates are assessed.
Curran, R. J.↗
Minimum Energy Routing through Interactive Techniques (MERIT) modeling
The MERIT program is designed to demonstrate the feasibility of fuel savings by airlines through improved route selection using wind observations from their own fleet. After a discussion of weather and aircraft data, manually correcting wind fields, automatic corrections to wind fields, and short-range prediction models, it is concluded that improvements in wind information are possible if a system is developed for analyzing wind observations and correcting the forecasts made by the major models. One data handling system, McIDAS, can easily collect and display wind observations and model forecasts. Changing the wind forecasts beyond the time of the most recent observations is more difficult; an Australian Mesoscale Model was tested with promising but not definitive results.
Wylie, Donald P.↗
One-level modeling for diagnosing surface winds over complex terrain. II - Applicability to short-range forecasting
The Alpert and Getenio (1988) modification of the Mass and Dempsey (1985) one-level sigma-surface model was used to study four synoptic events that included two winter cases (a Cyprus low and a Siberian high) and two summer cases. Results of statistical verification showed that the model is not only capable of diagnosing many details of surface mesoscale flow, but might also be useful for various applications which require operative short-range prediction of the diurnal changes of high-resolution surface flow over complex terrain, for example, in locating wildland fires, determining the dispersion of air pollutants, and predicting changes in wind energy or of surface wind for low-level air flights.
Alpert, P.↗
Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes
Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.
Krishnamurti, T. N.↗
Comment on determination of the interaction potential between Ar and HCl
To test the accuracy of the Gordon-Kim theory of intermolecular forces, predicted and experimental values are compared for Ar-HCl. The method appears to accurately predict the short-range repulsive forces and also the position (but possibly not the depth) of the potential well.
Green, S.↗
Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts using a divergent initialization
Data simulations and real data tests indicate that the treatment of the initial divergence field in a mesoscale weather prediction model strongly influences the quality of the first 6 hours of a rainfall forecast. Of the procedures tested for determining the initial divergence field for the predictions, the best technique is found to be the Tarbell et al. (1981) diagnostic procedure, where a diabatic form of the omega equation is used to obtain a three-dimensional vertical motion field that in turn can be used in conjunction with a continuity equation to obtain the horizontal divergence fields.
Salmon, E. M.↗
Vibrational dependence of pressure induced spectral linewidths and line shifts - Application of the infinite order sudden scattering approximation
The infinite order sudden (IOS) approximation to molecular rotation is applied to simplify the theory of linewidths and shifts in vibration-rotation spectra. This approximation is expected to be most accurate for hard, short-range collisions and is therefore complementary to Anderson theory which is best for weak, glancing collisions. The IOS approximation predicts identical linewidths and shifts for P- and R-branch transitions with the same line number. It also predicts zero line shifts for pure rotational spectra. The dependence of linewidths and shifts on vibrational band is seen to be due mainly to variation in diagonal vibrational matrix elements of the intermolecular potential. Calculations are performed for the 0-0, 0-1, and 0-2 bands of CO perturbed by He, using a theoretical interaction potential with no semiempirical or adjustable parameters; results are in satisfactory accord with experimental data.
Green, S.↗
The combined use of diagnosed mesoscale frontogenesis and satellite imagery in forecasting squall line formation
The appearance of a line of small cumulus congestus clouds along a cold front in conjunction with developing mesoscale clear zone immediately behind the front was used to infer the existence of a meso-Beta-scale frontogenetical circulation capable of squall line initiation. The very short-range forecasting (2 to 6 hr) capabilities of synthesizing GOES imagery with diagnostic frontogenesis analyses of conventional surface data to predict the precise location and time of formation of such convective activity is demonstrated. The observations support the frontogenesis hypothesis postulated by Koch (1984).
Dorian, Paul↗
Superdense neutron matter
A relativistic theory of high-density matter is presented which takes into account the short-range interaction due to the exchange of spin-2 mesons. An equation of state is derived and used to compute neutron-star properties. The prediction of the theory for the values of maximum mass and moment of inertia for a stable neutron star are 1.75 solar masses and 1.68 by 10 to the 45th power g-sq cm, in very good agreement with the presently known observational bounds. The corresponding radius is found to be 10.7 km. It is found that the inclusion of the spin-2 interaction reduces the disagreement between the relativistic and nonrelativistic theories in their predictions of masses and moments of inertia.
Canuto, V.↗
A short-range objective nocturnal temperature forecasting model
A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular location and receive an hour-by-hour prediction of surface and air temperatures for that location for an entire night. The user has the option of putting in his own estimates of wind speeds and background sky radiation which are treated as independent variables. An analysis of 141 test runs show that 57.4% of the time the model predicts to within 1 C for the best cases and to within 3 C for 98.0% of all cases.
Sutherland, R. A.↗
Mesoscale modeling of the severe thunderstorm environment
The abilities of limited-area mesoscale models to provide accurate predictions of the environment of midlatitude severe thunderstorms and the possible feedback effects of the storms upon their environment are reviewed. Mesoaplha-scale models, mesobeta models, and terrain-induced mesoscale systems are discussed. The importance of the initial state and model numerics and physics is examined. It is found that mesoscale models must be run locally if they are to be used for short-range forecasting.
Koch, Steven E.↗
Prediction of convective activity using a system of parasitic-nested numerical models
A limited area, three dimensional, moist, primitive equation (PE) model is developed to test the sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to the initial relative humidity distribution. Special emphasis is placed on the squall-line region. To accomplish the desired goal, time dependent lateral boundaries and a general convective parameterization scheme suitable for mid-latitude systems were developed. The sequential plume convective parameterization scheme presented is designed to have the versatility necessary in mid-latitudes and to be applicable for short-range forecasts. The results indicate that the scheme is able to function in the frontally forced squallline region, in the gently rising altostratus region ahead of the approaching low center, and in the over-riding region ahead of the warm front. Three experiments are discussed.
Perkey, D. J.↗
Predictability of ultralong waves in global and hemispheric quasi-geostrophic barotropic models
A global quasi-geostrophic barotropic model, including orography, zonal forcing, and frictional dissipation, is compared to two hemispheric models, one with antisymmetric equatorial boundary conditions and one with symmetric boundary conditions. The stationary solutions in the global model and the hemispheric models are found to be different, because the hemispheric models lack either the symmetric or antisymmetric waves, and because the nonlinear feedbacks are much larger in the hemispheric models. Time-dependent calculations show that the hemispheric models can excite anomalous Rossby waves and can produce erroneous short-range forecasts in middle latitudes. It is concluded that global models are preferred for making both short-range and long-range forecasts for middle latitudes.
Roads, J. O.↗
Simulation experiments for testing the assimilation of geostationary satellite temperature retrievals into a numerical prediction model
A simulation experiment is presented which tests a procedure that assimilates temperature soundings from geostationary satellites using a method developed by Gal-Chen (1983). The simulation is used to decide whether the increased temporal resolution of geostationary satellite data can be used to improve numerical simulation of a baroclinically unstable wave, and to assess the impact of gaps in the satellite sounding fields on the model simulations. Background information on the simulation experiment is presented, including discussion of the variational approach utilized, the numerical model, updating procedures, and control run. The simulation results indicate that, for the case of a baroclinically unstable wave, considerable improvements in the short-range forecast may be realized if geostationary satellite data are inserted with a frequency near 1 hr during a 6 hr analysis cycle compared with a single insertion.
Gal-Chen, T.↗
Interactive applications of satellite observations and mesoscale numerical models
The impact of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and satellite meteorology on operational weather forecasting has become overwhelming in the past few years. The paper looks toward the merger of these technologies in making short range 6-18 h forecasts through the use of mesoscale NWP models. A short-range (2-18 h) mesoscale forecast system envisioned for the near future is described that includes four components: hydrodynamic numerical models, large-scale and mesoscale; satellites, polar orbiting for high latitudes and geostationary for low latitudes; mesoclimatology, derived in large part from satellite data; and special-purpose simple models and empirical relations. It is important that the components of the forecast system be developed in parallel rather than in series if the system is to be completed within five years. There is enough evidence to substantiate the revolution in the mesoscale weather prediction in the next five years.
Kreitzberg, C. W.↗
Severe weather prediction studies
A numerical forecast model is described which uses three-dimensional primitive equations to predict the evolution of the wind, temperature and moisture fields along with the subsynoptic-scale convective activity. There are 15 vertical levels set on a longitude-latitude horizontal grid. In this study, the horizontal grid distance is 70 km (0.625 deg latitude and 0.816 deg longitude at 40 deg N) and the time step is 90 sec. Orography is included and terrain coordinates are adopted. The forecast model is used to test two tornado-producing storms with very different synoptic structures. A 12 hr forecast is carried out for both cases. The rms errors of the forecast indicate much smaller errors in the middle troposphere than in the lower troposphere. The results demonstrate that a rather fine-mesh limited-area numerical model is capable of providing a valuable short-range forecast of the circulation and the mesoscale precipitation features.
Chang, C.-B.↗
CO2 laser doppler systems for the measurement of atmospheric winds and turbulence
Two CO2 laser doppler systems developed by NASA and some results obtained with them are discussed. A continuous wave, monostatic system for short-range wind measurement is described, and direct comparisons between the data obtained with it and with a cup-anemometer/wind vane system and a hot-wire anemometer show excellent agreement between the systems. Improvements being made in three CW, CO2 laser doppler systems, including a filter bank for optimized signal processing and a versatile scanning system, are noted. A pulsed CO2 system for measuring clear air turbulence is described, and results of test performance on board a Convair 990 are presented. It is noted that while the system was able to measure air speed and turbulence, the range of its transmitter-atmosphere-receiver was lower than predicted, and a difference of about 20 to 30 dB existed between the actual and theoretical turbulence measurements. Factors that may account for this loss are listed.
Huffaker, R. M.↗