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Results for “Simulation Credibility”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Method for Real-Time Salt Aerosol Concentration and Size Measurements for Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessments

Licensing a new nuclear reactor involves evaluating credible accident scenarios by developing models that simulate accident progression to predict possible outcomes and their impact on safety. The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range can significantly affect dose consequence and threaten human health and is therefore a focus of nuclear reactor safety assessments. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of existing experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of radionuclide-bearing aerosols that may be produced from molten salt reactor (MSR) facilities during postulated accident scenarios. Experiments on aerosol formation from molten salt systems are a high priority need that will support MSR licensing by indicating the radiological consequences of aerosol formation and providing the data required for model development and validation. The evolving conditions that occur during a MSR accident, such as a spill of molten fuel salt, may affect aerosol formation mechanisms and aerosol properties over time. There is a need to conduct experiments that simulate credible MSR accidents in a laboratory to generate aerosols with realistic characteristics and behaviors and a need to measure these aerosols in real time under accident-relevant conditions. This report describes the development of a method that can be used to quantify the size and concentration of salt aerosol particles that form from molten salt systems in real time. This method will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests that will provide mechanistic insight into aerosol formation and properties to support process model development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

From models to reality: a systematic review on simulated and measured residential heat pump energy savings

High-performance HVAC solutions are central to residential energy management. A substantial share of these are electric, reversible-cycle systems, with heat pumps representing the largest portion of current and near-term adoption. This review synthesizes peer-reviewed and grey literature on residential space heating and cooling heat pumps. The academic literature is dominated by modeling (73.8%), with limited field measurement (13.1%). Grey literature from United States serve as a supplemental resource providing measured savings. Conversions from electric-resistance heating consistently show the largest site energy reductions, while oil/propane baselines yield moderate savings, and gas baseline scenario often deliver small and region-dependent savings. This study cross-checks the grey literature measured data with simulation data filtered from the ResStock dataset. The comparison indicates a discrepancy between simulations and measured data: simulated site EUIs are typically lower than measured EUIs, but percentage energy savings fall in similar ranges, implying simulations capture directional effects while underestimating energy use. Factors associated with variability and model–measurement differences include system characterization and control representation (e.g., backup heat engagement, thermostat/setpoint strategies, commissioning/installation quality), occupant behavior, weather normalization, metering scope, and envelope characterization. This paper also outlines the proposed methodology for comparing simulation and measured data for heat pumps. It emphasizes the metrics used for comparison and units harmonization, building characteristics matching, and compact metadata are needed for simulations to match measured data. The proposed methodology is expected to improve the credibility of simulated savings as measured evidence grows.

Yu, Lili↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪⁡(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Deuterium Oxidation in a Room with a Fire

A series of experiments where deuterium was released in trace amounts into a room with a fire were performed at Sandia National Laboratories. This report describes the corresponding effort to model the test series using SIERRA/FUEGO. The objective of this modeling effort was to produce a simulation test matrix that can be utilized to help interpret the corresponding experiments and be used to assess the credibility of using the SIERRA/FUEGO simulations as a surrogate for real tritium reaction data for mock fire and release studies. The simulations assessed multiple configurations of fire size and location and overall found that there was low conversion of deuterium to oxidized deuterium. There are some notable differences between the simulation predictions and the experimental results, such as the simulations generally predicting higher amounts of deuterium conversion compared to the experiment. A strategy to address modeling uncertainties and unknowns is also given in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physical Review Journal Club: Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

This is an invited presentation for APS's monthly Journal Club where important papers that have recently been accepted for publication are highlighted in a seminar-like setting. The presentation will be "live" (May 1, 2025) and streamed across the world (including an archived recording).

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verification and Validation of Open-Source Computational Fluid Dynamics Capabilities in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) advances predictive modeling in nuclear research by simplifying the application design process and making modeling more efficient and accessible to researchers and the broader community. Because of MOOSE’s critical role in the scientific computation field, verification and validation are important to evaluate the reliability and credibility of MOOSE’s code, simulations, and models. To assess MOOSE’s Navier Stokes module and turbulence models, the following verification and validation University of Manchester ERCOFTAC cases were simulated in MOOSE, and the results were compared: Case 032 Turbulent Flow in a 2D Channel Case 079 Natural Convection in an Enclosed Cavity

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polywell Revisited

The Polywell fusion concept, originally proposed by Robert W. Bussard in 1985, has been investigated for over four decades as a potential solution for achieving net fusion energy in a compact and economically viable reactor. It combines two distinct approaches: high-beta magnetic cusp confinement of electrons using polyhedral coil configurations and electrostatic ion confinement via a potential well formed by injected electron beams. While the hybrid nature of the Polywell system offers advantages in plasma stability and engineering simplicity, previous efforts have been limited by persistent challenges in achieving sufficient plasma confinement required to generate a net energy gain. Here, in this study, we examine previous works and identify limitations of several Polywell embodiments that have historically impeded progress. We present an updated Polywell physics model incorporating experimental findings and recent first-principles particle-in-cell simulations. This updated model outlines a credible path toward overcoming confinement losses and achieving net energy gain using deuterium-tritium (D-T) fuels. Our findings provide a renewed scientific basis for the continued development of the Polywell fusion concept as a practical and scalable approach to fusion energy.

Electrostatic potential well↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing ICME simulations with scaled laboratory experiment

In stellar physics and astrophysics, numerical simulations and laboratory experiments are often compared to observational data to support their representation of the real world. However, there is also merit in comparing numerical simulations to properly scaled experiments, especially when the experiment and the simulation are both emulating the solar phenomena. Confirming the credibility of scaled experiments and their scaling with well-validated models is important to expand our knowledge of the associated physical phenomena. This is significant because experiments and simulations can be performed frequently, whereas observations may be limited by location, field of view, and missing data. In this work, we use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model, a well-validated magnetohydrodynamic model, to simulate an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) and compare it to an experiment which provides a scaled analog to a physical ICME. The experiment was performed on the Big Red Ball facility and scaled using dimensionless parameters such as plasma β and magnetosonic Mach number to reproduce the main structure of an ICME. We compare the model-simulated temperature, density, and magnetic field to those from the experiment, as well as the scaling parameters used in the experiment, to those calculated from the simulation. This comparison is performed to further justify the scaling arguments made by the experiment. Additionally, the comparison would lead to the development of stronger scaling arguments for future experiments.

Bryant, K. [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Level 2 Milestone: Develop and Incorporate Novel Code Verification of Fundamental Equations in Gemma and Set Up Appropriate Tests

For computational physics simulations, code verification plays a major role in establishing the credibility of the results by assessing the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods. In computational electromagnetics, surface integral equations, such as the method-of-moments implementations of the electric-, magnetic-, and combinedfield integral equations, are frequently used to solve Maxwell’s equations on the surfaces of electromagnetic scatterers. These electromagnetic surface integral equations yield many code-verification challenges due to the various sources of numerical error and their possible interactions. In this report, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches in Gemma.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements in Constitutive Model Calibration: Leveraging the Power of Full‐Field DIC Measurements and In Situ Load Path Selection for Reliable Parameter Inference

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are essential for computationally supported high-consequence engineering decisions. Historically, characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data are collected for a specific model of interest, (3) use deterministic methods that provide best-fit parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work brings together several recent advancements into an improved workflow called interlaced characterization and calibration (ICC) that advances the state-of-the-art in constitutive model calibration. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) quantifies parameter uncertainty through Bayesian inference and (4) incorporates these advancements into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework is demonstrated here on the calibration of a material model using simulated full-field data for an aluminium cruciform specimen being deformed biaxially. The cruciform is actively driven through the myopically preferred load path using Bayesian optimal experimental design, which selects load steps that yield the maximum expected information gain (EIG). Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the model predictions of full-field displacements, and fast surrogate models are built to approximate the input-output relationships of the expensive finite element model. Furthermore, the tools developed and demonstrated here show that high-fidelity constitutive models can be efficiently and reliably calibrated with quantified uncertainty, thus supporting credible decision-making and potentially increasing the agility of solid mechanics modelling by enabling utilization of computational simulations at earlier stages of the design cycle.

Bayesian optimal experimental design↗