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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 51: Workplace communications skills and the value of communications and information-use skills instruction: Engineering students' perspectives

Studies indicate that communications and information-related activities take up a substantial portion of an engineer's work week; therefore, effective communications and information use skills are one of the key engineering competencies that recent graduates of engineering programs are expected to possess. Feedback from industry rates communications and information use skills of entry-level engineers low. Missing from current discussions of communications and information use skills and competencies for engineering students is a clear explanation from the professional engineering community about what constitutes 'acceptable and desirable communications and information norms' within that community. To gather adequate and generalizable data about communications and information skills instruction and to provide a student perspective on the communications skills of engineers, we undertook a national study of aerospace engineering students in March 1993. The study included questions about the importance of certain communications and information skills to professional success, the instruction students had received in these skills, and perceived helpfulness of the instruction. Selected results from the study study are reported in this paper.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Degradation of learned skills. Effectiveness of practice methods on simulated space flight skill retention

Manual flight control and emergency procedure task skill degradation was evaluated after time intervals of from 1 to 6 months. The tasks were associated with a simulated launch through the orbit insertion flight phase of a space vehicle. The results showed that acceptable flight control performance was retained for 2 months, rapidly deteriorating thereafter by a factor of 1.7 to 3.1 depending on the performance measure used. Procedural task performance showed unacceptable degradation after only 1 month, and exceeded an order of magnitude after 4 months. The effectiveness of static rehearsal (checklists and briefings) and dynamic warmup (simulator practice) retraining methods were compared for the two tasks. Static rehearsal effectively countered procedural skill degradation, while some combination of dynamic warmup appeared necessary for flight control skill retention. It was apparent that these differences between methods were not solely a function of task type or retraining method, but were a function of the performance measures used for each task.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Soft Skill in the Geosciences: NASA DEVELOP’s Approach to Strengthening Soft Skills in the Future Geospatial Workforce

Part of NASA’s Applied Sciences, the DEVELOP Program bridges the gap between NASA Earth Science and potential users through rapid feasibility studies that apply Earth observations to environmental decision making needs. The program conducts 50-60 studies a year that engage participants – students, recent graduates, early career individuals, and transitioning career professionals – in autonomous teamwork with an emphasis on professional development and communication. The experience offers participants a robust opportunity to build their teaming skills (facilitated through programmatic personality assessments and discussions), interpersonal communication, and critical thinking skills which are central to project work in the DEVELOP model. The program also offers leadership opportunities where participants lead their peers within a supportive environment. This presentation will introduce the DEVELOP model for soft skill development, lessons learned, and highlight testimonials of past participants.

Amanda Clayton↗
NASA NTRS1972

Degradation of learned skills: Effectiveness of practice methods on visual approach and landing skill retention

Flight control and procedural task skill degradation, and the effectiveness of retraining methods were evaluated for a simulated space vehicle approach and landing under instrument and visual flight conditions. Fifteen experienced pilots were trained and then tested after 4 months either without the benefits of practice or with static rehearsal, dynamic rehearsal or with dynamic warmup practice. Performance on both the flight control and procedure tasks degraded significantly after 4 months. The rehearsal methods effectively countered procedure task skill degradation, while dynamic rehearsal or a combination of static rehearsal and dynamic warmup practice was required for the flight control tasks. The quality of the retraining methods appeared to be primarily dependent on the efficiency of visual cue reinforcement.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Degradation of learned skills. Static practice effectiveness for visual approach and landing skill retention

The effectivess of an improved static retraining method was evaluated for a simulated space vehicle approach and landing under instrument and visual flight conditions. Experienced pilots were trained and then tested after 4 months without flying to compare their performance using the improved method with three methods previously evaluated. Use of the improved static retraining method resulted in no practical or significant skill degradation and was found to be even more effective than methods using a dynamic presentation of visual cues. The results suggested that properly structured open loop methods of flight control task retraining are feasible.

Sitterley, T. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1994

A streamlined software environment for situated skills

This paper documents a powerful set of software tools used for developing situated skills. These situated skills form the reactive level of a three-tiered intelligent agent architecture. The architecture is designed to allow these skills to be manipulated by a task level engine which is monitoring the current situation and selecting skills necessary for the current task. The idea is to coordinate the dynamic activations and deactivations of these situated skills in order to configure the reactive layer for the task at hand. The heart of the skills environment is a data flow mechanism which pipelines the currently active skills for execution. A front end graphical interface serves as a debugging facility during skill development and testing. We are able to integrate skills developed in different languages into the skills environment. The power of the skills environment lies in the amount of time it saves for the programmer to develop code for the reactive layer of a robot.

Yu, Sophia T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions of Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System

The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗
NASA NTRS1991

Acquisition and improvement of human motor skills: Learning through observation and practice

Skilled movement is an integral part of the human existence. A better understanding of motor skills and their development is a prerequisite to the construction of truly flexible intelligent agents. We present MAEANDER, a computational model of human motor behavior, that uniformly addresses both the acquisition of skills through observation and the improvement of skills through practice. MAEANDER consists of a sensory-effector interface, a memory of movements, and a set of performance and learning mechanisms that let it recognize and generate motor skills. The system initially acquires such skills by observing movements performed by another agent and constructing a concept hierarchy. Given a stored motor skill in memory, MAEANDER will cause an effector to behave appropriately. All learning involves changing the hierarchical memory of skill concepts to more closely correspond to either observed experience or to desired behaviors. We evaluated MAEANDER empirically with respect to how well it acquires and improves both artificial movement types and handwritten script letters from the alphabet. We also evaluate MAEANDER as a psychological model by comparing its behavior to robust phenomena in humans and by considering the richness of the predictions it makes.

Iba, Wayne↗
NASA NTRS2013

Female and Male Interns and Their Mentors? Perception of Workforce Skill Development

Participants in this study were student interns and mentors taking part in the 2012, 10- week Langley Aerospace Research Student Scholars (LARSS) summer internship program in Hampton, Virginia. The study examined mentors and student interns' ratings of their preparedness in basic knowledge and skills. The study focused on three primary areas: 1) overall evaluation of knowledge and skills by mentors and interns; 2) male and female interns' perceptions of their own skills in these key areas; and 3) mentors' perceptions of their student interns' knowledge and skills in the same areas by gender. Overall mentors were more positive about their interns' improvement in 12 of 17 areas assessed than were the student interns. There were no significant gender differences in how mentors rated their male and female interns' abilities in these workforce skills, but there were four key areas where female interns rated their own abilities lower than did their male peers: analytical thinking, computational skills, computer skills and technical skills. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Hall, Cathy W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Skillful Spring Forecasts of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using Passive Microwave Data

In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March-May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June-August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.

melt onset↗
NASA NTRS2019

Training for Long-Duration Space Missions: A Literature Review into Skill Retention and Generalizability

In long-duration space missions, skill retention and generalizability become ever more important as mission length increases, for it is through these capabilities that astronaut crews achieve autonomy. A framework is proposed for future research based on three types of training commonly found in operational scenarios: initial training, refresher training, and just-in-time training. One of the key points of interest identified from the body of literature is the need for a structured and quantifiable approach to characterize skill decay. Such an approach would allow gaining a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which skill decay operates. Because simulators are used extensively in all types of training, the effects of simulator fidelity on skill retention and generalizability are paramount to understand. Some common fidelity types are defined and their effects on the human operator are discussed. From a review of the literature on all these topics, several research gaps were identified that led to three key opportunities for future research: (1) developing skill decay functions provides theoretical insights into skill decay and allows for several practical applications, such as planning refresher training, (2) the effects of simulator fidelity on skill decay functions should be investigated empirically, and (3) investigating the generalizability of skills learned in initial training to other tasks could provide space crews with greater autonomy. A cybernetic approach might give new insights.

training↗
NASA NTRS2019

Training for Long-Duration Space Missions: A Literature Review into Skill Retention and Generalizatility

In long-duration space missions, skill retention and generalizability become ever more important as mission length increases, for it is through these capabilities that astronaut crews achieve autonomy. A framework is proposed for future research based on three types of training commonly found in operational scenarios: initial training, refresher training, and just-in-time training. One of the key points of interest identified from the body of literature is the need for a structured and quantifiable approach to characterize skill decay. Such an approach would allow gaining a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which skill decay operates. Because simulators are used extensively in all types of training, the effects of simulator fidelity on skill retention and generalizability are paramount to understand. Some common fidelity types are defined and their effects on the human operator are discussed. From a review of the literature on all these topics, several research gaps were identified that led to three key opportunities for future research: (1) developing skill decay functions provides theoretical insights into skill decay and allows for several practical applications, such as planning refresher training, (2) the effects of simulator fidelity on skill decay functions should be investigated empirically, and (3) investigating the generalizability of skills learned in initial training to other tasks could provide space crews with greater autonomy. A cybernetic approach might give new insights.

Pieters, Marc A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Prediction skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains flash drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) models

Rapid-onset droughts, known as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. Here, we investigate the prediction skill of the extreme 2012 flash drought over the U.S. Great Plains at subseasonal lead times (3 weeks or more in advance) in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). An additional comprehensive set of subseasonal hindcasts with NASA’s GEOS model, a SubX model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. The results show that the prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While skillful predictions are restricted to within the first two forecast weeks in most models, skill is considerably better (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization once dry soil conditions are established, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Evidence is provided that the importance of soil moisture initialization applies more generally to central U.S. summer flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Anthony M DeAngelis↗