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The Slow Demise of the Long-Lived Sn 2005ip

The Type IIn supernova (SN IIn) 2005ip is one of the most well-studied and long-lasting examples of an SN interacting with its circumstellar environment. The optical light curve plateaued at a nearly constant level for more than five years, suggesting ongoing shock interaction with an extended and clumpy circumstellar medium (CSM). Here, we present continued observations of the SN from ∼1000 to 5000 d post-explosion at all wavelengths, including X-ray, ultraviolet, near-infrared (NIR), and mid-infrared. The UV spectra probe the pre-explosion mass loss and show evidence for CNO processing. From the bolometric light curve, we find that the total radiated energy is in excess of 10 50 erg, the progenitor star’s pre-explosion mass-loss rate was >~ 1 × 10 −2 Mꙩ yr −1 , and the total mass lost shortly before explosion was >~1Mꙩ, though the mass lost could have been considerably larger depending on the efficiency for the conversion of kinetic energy to radiation. The ultraviolet through NIR spectrum is characterized by two high-density components, one with narrow high-ionization lines, and one with broader low-ionization H I, He I, [OI], Mg II, and Fe II lines. The rich Fe II spectrum is strongly affected by Lyα fluorescence, consistent with spectral modelling. Both the Balmer and He I lines indicate a decreasing CSM density during the late interaction period. We find similarities to SN 1988Z, which shows a comparable change in spectrum at around the same time during its very slow decline. These results suggest that, at long last, the shock interaction in SN 2005ip may finally be on the decline.

stars

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System

An Investigation Regarding the Effects of Volume Dynamics on Gas Turbine Engine Performance and Operability

This work explores the impact of adding volume dynamics to an electrified turbofan engine model. The zero-dimensional single-input single-output volume elements capture the physics of fluid compressibility of flow in the engine core gas path turbomachinery during transient operation with greater fidelity. Some background regarding the motivation for this effort is provided. A model of the volume element is developed from first principles. The baseline engine model is described and an explanation is given of the modifications made to incorporate the volume elements into the new model. Details of the simulated inputs, designed to elicit exaggerated dynamic responses and to facilitate comparison between the baseline and modified engine models, are explicated. The results of these simulations are presented and discussed, demonstrating that the transient performance and operability of the modified engine model, measured by parameters such as shaft speeds, thrust, and high-pressure compressor (HPC) stall margin, are impacted by the additional dynamics. Commentary is provided regarding potential explanations for the differences in behavior exhibited by the two models. Finally, suggestions are offered for future work that might improve the volume models developed in this effort and leverage the improved fidelity enabled by the modeling of turbomachinery volume dynamics.

Volume dynamics

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This paper describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

electrified aircraft propulsion

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This presentation describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

electrified aircraft propulsion

Preliminary Dynamic Modeling of the Quarter-Scale Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft

This paper describes the early-stage modeling of a quarter-scale distributed electric propulsion aircraft, based on the SUbsonic Single Aft eNgine (SUSAN) Electrofan, a transformative concept aircraft for which a model exists. The full-scale 180 passenger SUSAN concept has a single turbofan engine in the tail that both produces thrust and provides electrical power to 16 electric fans distributed across the wings utilizing a series/parallel hybrid architecture. The quarter-scale version would have an internal combustion piston engine to provide power to 17 electric fans–16 on the wings, one in the tail–in a series hybrid configuration, and no vertical or horizontal stabilizers. It would also have a reduced flight envelope in terms of both altitude and speed. The initial modeling approach is to scale down the original airframe model to capture the dynamic behavior of a much smaller aircraft, albeit with an empennage. The original powertrain model is then replaced with one representing the physical components of that of the quarter-scale vehicle. This powertrain model is suitable for control design and analysis, and the fully integrated, although preliminary, aircraft model allows flight simulator testing and evaluation. Results from simulations are presented.

Electrified powertrain

The Contaminant Footprint of Landed Spacecraft: Toward an Inventory and Modelling Framework

All spacecraft generate and carry contaminants, i.e., unwanted and potentially harmful material. When a spacecraft lands and operates in vacuum, as onto Earth’s Moon, it introduces contaminants into its environment that may compromise mission science objectives and engineering performance. Contamination may degrade sites of unique value to planetary science or in situ resource utilization. This presentation will identify and compare source terms and transport vectors for contaminants – in particular, organic material – generated by landed spacecraft. An integrated modeling framework for the organic contamination footprint of spacecraft missions will be described and presented.

Gas Dynamics

A SIMULINK Environment for Flight Dynamics and Control Analysis - Application to the DHC-2 'Beaver', Part 1. Implementation of a Model Library in SIMULINK

The design of advanced Automatic Aircraft Control Systems (AACS's) can be improved upon considerably if the designer can access all models and tools required for control system design and analysis through a graphical user-interface, from within one software environment. This MSc-thesis presents the first step in the development of such an environment, which is currently being done at the Section for Stability and Control of Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. The environment is implemented within the commercially available software package MATLAB/SIMULINK. The report consists of two parts. Part I gives a detailed description of the AACS design environment. The heart of this environment is formed by the SIMULINK implementation of a nonlinear aircraft model in block-diagram format. The model has been worked out for the old laboratory aircraft of the Faculty, the De Havilland DHC-2 'Beaver', but due to its modular structure, it can easily be adapted for other aircraft. Part I also describes MATLAB programs which can be applied for finding steady-state trimmed-flight conditions and for linearization of the aircraft model, and it shows how the built-in simulation routines of SIMULINK have been used for open-loop analysis of the aircraft dynamics. Apart from the implementation of the models and tools, a thorough treatment of the theoretical backgrounds is presented. Part II of this report presents a part of an autopilot design process for the 'Beaver' aircraft, which clearly demonstrates the power and flexibility of the AACS design environment from part I. Evaluations of all longitudinal and lateral control laws by means of nonlinear simulations are treated in detail. The AACS design environment from part I proved to be a very useful tool for designing the control laws of the 'Beaver' autopilot within a very tight time-schedule. The autopilot design process itself will be used as a guideline for future AACS research at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. Flight tests of the 'Beaver' autopilot, done after evaluating the control laws in the SIMULINK package, proved to be quite successful. In the future, the AACS design package will evolve into a standardized, integrated design environment which can be applied to virtually any type of aircraft. The AACS design cycle will be shortened further by developing tools for automatically porting control laws from the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment to a piloted real-time flight simulator and the Flight Control Computers of the aircraft.

Aircraft Modelling

Assessment of Near-Angle Scatter on Exo-Earth Coronagraphy

Near-Angle Scatter (NAS) of the host star’s light into the coronagraph dark hole may limit the ability of a potential Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) to detect and characterize an Earth-like planet around a Sun-like star. This paper summarizes a 5-year investigation of the impact of NAS on high-contrast coronagraphy. Science requirements were flowed down to a draft flux ratio noise ratio (FRN) error budget with allocations for NAS. The modeled sources of NAS include correlated (low and mid-spatial) surface structure, uncorrelated surface microroughness and coating structure, particulate contamination, micrometeoroid impacts and polarization leakage. The paper develops specifications for these sources of scattered light that meet their FRN error budget allocations, distinguishing between scatter that can and cannot be modulated. The development process utilizes an analytical expression that predicts scatter throughput into the dark hole based on BRDF/BSDF. Using this relationship, Photon Engineering performed a FRED® straylight analysis of the HWO EAC-1 (Exploratory Analytical Case #1) coronagraph to parametrically study predicted scattered light contrast in the dark hole. The model revealed that primary mirror microroughness or contamination is not a significant source of scattered light; the most critical surfaces are the smallest and those located closest to the coronagraph focal plane mask. The assessment found that uncorrelated microstructure, contamination, and micrometeoroid impacts require more investigation and potential significant sources of unmodulated scattered light, and highlights that slow thermal wavefront drift is an order of magnitude more impactful than fast mechanical jitter.

coronagraphy

Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Atmospheric dynamics

A Transient Hydrodynamic Model of Screen Channel Liquid Acquisition Devices for In-Space Cryogenic Propellant Management

Screen channel liquid acquisition devices (LADs) will play a crucial role in future deep space travel. It is essential that vapor-free delivery of propellants during tank-to-tank transfer is ensured to maximize yield from storage tanks and prevent potential combustion instabilities. The screen channel LAD utilizes a fine screen wire mesh that can separate phases in a low Bond number (i.e. microgravity) environment using surface tension forces. This study presents the development and verification of a new model for transient screen compliance, one of the influential factors for screen channel LAD design. Screen compliance is crucial during LAD channel outflow transients because the slight deflection of the screen can provide needed mass to satisfy rapid outflow demands and reduce the pressure difference across the screen. The model is successfully verified against CFD simulations. In addition, the characteristic speed for the governing screen compliance equations is derived which allows for numerical stability criteria to be established. As shown in this study, the transient maximum pressure difference across the screen can greatly exceed the steady state maximum pressure difference across the screen in many cases.

Hydrodynamics Simulations

Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation

This is the Appendix containing a description of the solution for Case 1 in the assessment, “Expansion of Check-Cases for 6DOF Simulation”. For cases of spherical gravity, it is possible to provide a two-body solution without recourse to numerical integration and thus it is accurate to machine precision. Python code for a Keplerian Propagator (propagate.py) which produced a reference trajectory for Case 1 is provided in this appendix. There is also code for generating test cases which was used as an independent verification of the propagator. This is a high-level description of the algorithm employed. The documentation of each function includes implementation details, including equations for each task.

Modeling

Discrete Rotational Energy for Polyatomic Molecules in Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

The environments experienced by vehicles upon entry into planetary atmospheres generally result in severe aerothermodynamic loading. These flows are characterized by the formation of strong shock waves, behind which high temperatures and non-equilibrium environments are generated, and the accurate prediction of internal energy relaxation and chemical kinetics becomes important. This manuscript focuses on the internal relaxation of the rotational energy of polyatomic molecules. Previous work has described the implementation of a discrete rotational energy model for diatomic molecules (linear rotators). Later, Gimelshein et. al extended this model to include polyatomic molecular internal energies. However, they did not include details on how to generate the particles at equilibrium conditions and centrifugal distortion was not included in their model. The purpose of the present study is to extend the afore-mentioned models to the treatment of discrete rotational energy in polyatomic molecules with the addition of centrifugal distortion. An overview of the background theory needed for the implementation of the model will be given followed by the model itself and verification of the model. For example, sampled versus Boltzmann distributions are compared in Figure 1 for CH3 (oblate rotator – two quantum numbers) and examples of thermal relaxation behavior for linear and non-linear rotators are presented in Figure 2. In addition, comparisons of thermophysical properties will be presented, as well as examples of adiabatic relaxation and application to hypersonic flow.

Rarefied Gas Dynamics

Thermal Data-driven Model Reduction for Enhanced Battery Health Monitoring

Electric aviation faces a major challenge of avoiding potentially catastrophic consequences of the battery’s thermal runaway while keeping the weight of the battery low. Detection of early warning signals of battery failures requires accurate monitoring of the battery’s health throughout its lifespan. However, identifying the parameters of the battery from field data is notoriously difficult. We investigate this problem within the framework of modeling the temperature dynamics of a Li-ion cell during tests simulating loading in electric aircraft flights. It is found that the parameters of a higher-fidelity physics-based thermal model cannot be identified from the simulated flight data. To resolve this issue, we reduce the higher-fidelity thermal model to a model with fewer parameters. The resulting reduced-order model can predict temperature dynamics accurately and is identifiable throughout the cell’s lifespan which allows using the model’s parameters to monitor the state-of-health of the aging cell and detect anomalies in thermal behavior.

Li ion batteries

The dynamical origins of the dark comets and a proposed evolutionary track

So-called ‘dark comets’ are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the 𝜈6 resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment.

Aster G Taylor

The Contaminant Footprint of Landed Spacecraft: Toward an Inventory and Modelling Framework

All spacecraft generate and carry contaminants, i.e., unwanted and potentially harmful material. When a spacecraft lands and operates in near-vacuum, as onto Earth’s Moon, it introduces contaminants into its environment that may compromise mission science objectives and engineering performance. Contamination of solar system bodies may irrevocably degrade targets of unique value to planetary scientists, for instance, as lunar landed spacecraft introduce propellant effluents into the otherwise pristine ice of the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions. NASA’s planetary protection discipline seeks to ensure that solar system bodies are not contaminated, for scientific purposes, by terrestrial material (i.e., forward contamination). This interest aligns with planetary science interest in mitigating the transport of terrestrial contaminants onto solar system bodies and in controlling types of contamination that could compromise the scientific value of samples or measurements. NASA, and other entities that practice planetary science, have compelling and multidisciplinary interests in the preservation of special regions and sampling sites of high scientific value – including lunar permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) – from inadvertent contamination by any spacecraft, and in understanding the contamination of such regions by all spacecraft. Organic molecular contamination here represents a primary threat. Organic molecules will be introduced to solar system bodies by nominal landed spacecraft and crew processes – including by the action of descent and ascent engines; natural materials outgassing; and crew environmental and life support system sources. Molecular contaminants can also travel in the free-molecular sense at global scale across near-vacuum bodies, including into regions where they may be permanently trapped. This presentation will address a high-level study to identify sources of contaminants – in particular, organic material – generated by landed spacecraft along with the transport vectors by which these contaminants can reach sites of scientific interest on bodies like the Moon. A vision for an integrated modeling framework for the organic contamination footprint of spacecraft missions, individually and collectively, will also be described and presented along with initial conclusions related to organic molecular transport.

Gas Dynamics

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology