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Date of Snowmelt at High Latitudes as Determined from Visible Satellite Data and Relationship with the Arctic Oscillation

Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated approximately five days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous twenty years. However, it appears that since about 1990, the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has remained nearly unchanged--in the last twenty years, the date of snow disappearance has not been occurring noticeably earlier. Snowmelt changes observed in the 1980s was step-like in nature, unlike a more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea ice extent. At latitude 70 deg N, several latitudinal segments (of 10 degrees) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two latitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Additional observations and modeling investigations are needed to better explain past and present spring melt characteristics and peculiarities.

Foster, James↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Spring Snow Melt Timing and Changes over Arctic Lands

Spring snow cover over Arctic lands has, on average, melted approximately 4-7 days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous 20 years. The earlier disappearance of snow has been identified in non-mountainous regions at the 60 deg and 70 deg N parallels over Eurasia and North America using visible satellite observations of continental snow cover extent (SCE) mapped by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The change was greater in the farthest north continental locations. Northern hemisphere SCE declined by almost 10% (May) to 20% (June) between the two intervals. At latitude 70 deg N, eight segments of longitude (each 10 deg in width) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two longitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, (one positive and one negative). SCE changes coincide with increasing spring warmth and the earlier diminution of sea ice in the last several decades. However, while sea ice has continued to decrease during this recent interval, snowmelt dates in the Arctic changed in a step-like fashion during the mid to late 1980s and have remained much the same since that time.

Foster, J. L.↗

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Productivity (NDVI) of Coastal Alaskan Tundra: Decreased Vegetation Growth Following Earlier Snowmelt

In the Arctic, earlier snowmelt and longer growing seasons due to warming have been hypothesized to increase vegetation productivity. Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from both field and satellite measurements as an indicator of vegetation phenology and productivity, we monitored spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth for a coastal wet sedge tundra site near Barrow, Alaska over three growing seasons (2000-2002). Contrary to expectation, earlier snowmelt did not lead to increased productivity. Instead, productivity was associated primarily with precipitation and soil moisture, and secondarily with growing degree days, which, during this period, led to reduced growth in years with earlier snowmelt. Additional moisture effects on productivity and species distribution, operating over a longer time scale, were evident in spatial NDVI patterns associated with microtopography. Lower, wetter regions dominated by graminoids were more productive than higher, drier locations having a higher percentage of lichens and mosses, despite the earlier snowmelt at the more elevated sites. These results call into question the oft-stated hypothesis that earlier arctic growing seasons will lead to greater vegetation productivity. Rather, they agree with an emerging body of evidence from recent field studies indicating that early-season, local environmental conditions, notably moisture and temperature, are primary factors determining arctic vegetation productivity. For this coastal arctic site, early growing season conditions are strongly influenced by microtopography, hydrology, and regional sea ice dynamics, and may not be easily predicted from snowmelt date or seasonal average air temperatures alone. Our comparison of field to satellite NDVI also highlights the value of in-situ monitoring of actual vegetation responses using field optical sampling to obtain detailed information on surface conditions not possible from satellite observations alone.

Growing↗

Potential for Monitoring Snow Cover in Boreal Forests by Combining MODIS Snow Cover and AMSR-E SWE Maps

Monitoring of snow cover extent and snow water equivalent (SWE) in boreal forests is important for determining the amount of potential runoff and beginning date of snowmelt. The great expanse of the boreal forest necessitates the use of satellite measurements to monitor snow cover. Snow cover in the boreal forest can be mapped with either the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) or the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) microwave instrument. The extent of snow cover is estimated from the MODIS data and SWE is estimated from the AMSR-E. Environmental limitations affect both sensors in different ways to limit their ability to detect snow in some situations. Forest density, snow wetness, and snow depth are factors that limit the effectiveness of both sensors for snow detection. Cloud cover is a significant hindrance to monitoring snow cover extent Using MODIS but is not a hindrance to the use of the AMSR-E. These limitations could be mitigated by combining MODIS and AMSR-E data to allow for improved interpretation of snow cover extent and SWE on a daily basis and provide temporal continuity of snow mapping across the boreal forest regions in Canada. The purpose of this study is to investigate if temporal monitoring of snow cover using a combination of MODIS and AMSR-E data could yield a better interpretation of changing snow cover conditions. The MODIS snow mapping algorithm is based on snow detection using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to enhance snow detection in dense vegetation. (Other spectral threshold tests are also used to map snow using MODIS.) Snow cover under a forest canopy may have an effect on the NDVI thus we use the NDVI in snow detection. A MODIS snow fraction product is also generated but not used in this study. In this study the NDSI and NDVI components of the snow mapping algorithm were calculated and analyzed to determine how they changed through the seasons. A blended snow product, the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA (ANSA) snow algorithm and product has recently been developed. The ANSA algorithm blends the MODIS snow cover and AMSR-E SWE products into a single snow product that has been shown to improve the performance of snow cover mapping. In this study components of the ANSA snow algorithm are used along with additional MODIS data to monitor daily changes in snow cover over the period of 1 February to 30 June 2008.

Riggs, George A.↗

Using Commercial Satellite Imagery to Reconstruct 3 m and Daily Spring Snow Water Equivalent

Snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution at fine spatial scales (≤10 m) is difficult to estimate due to modeling and observational constraints. However, the distribution of SWE throughout the spring snowmelt season is often correlated to the timing of snow disappearance. Here, we show that snow cover maps generated from PlanetScope's constellation of Dove Satellites can resolve the 3 m date of snow disappearance across seven alpine domains in California and Colorado. Across a 5-year period (2019–2023), the average uncertainty in the date of snow disappearance, or the period of time between the last date of observed snow cover and the first date of observed snow absence, was 3 days. Using a simple shortwave-based snowmelt model calibrated at nearby snow pillows, the PlanetScope date of snow disappearance could be used to reconstruct spring SWE. Relative to lidar SWE estimates, the SWE reconstruction had a spatial coefficient of correlation of 0.75, and SWE spatial variability that was biased by 9%, on average. SWE reconstruction biases were then improved to within 0.04 m, on average, by calibrating snowmelt rates to track the spring temporal evolution of fractional snow cover observed by PlanetScope, including fractional snow cover over the full modeling domain, and across domain subsections where snowmelt rates may differ. This study demonstrates the utility of fine-scale and high-frequency optical observations of snow cover, and the simple and annually repeatable connections between snow cover and spring snow water resources in regions with seasonal snowpack.

Justin M Pflug↗

Evaluation of ERTS data for certain hydrological uses

The author has identified the following significant results. A snow-extent map of the American River basin was prepared for 27 May 1973 from MSS band 4 imagery. The basin was 14% snow covered. NOAA-2 visible band imagery was used to determine date of disappearance of snow in the basin: 15 July 1973. A snowmelt curve comparing ERTS-1 and NOAA-2 snow-extent maps is provided. ERTS-1 data were superior in quality and outstanding in cartographic fidelity and were found to be an excellent control or calibration for the distorted and coarse (1 km) imagery from NOAA-2's VHRR which, however, is available on a daily basis.

Wiesnet, D. R.↗

Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 4: Operational applications of satellite snow cover observations. Colorado Field Test Center

The study was conducted on six watersheds ranging in size from 277 km to 3460 km in the Rio Grande and Arkansas River basins of southwestern Colorado. Six years of satellite data in the period 1973-78 were analyzed and snowcover maps prepared for all available image dates. Seven snowmapping techniques were explored; the photointerpretative method was selected as the most accurate. Three schemes to forecast snowmelt runoff employing satellite snowcover observations were investigated. They included a conceptual hydrologic model, a statistical model, and a graphical method. A reduction of 10% in the current average forecast error is estimated when snowcover data in snowmelt runoff forecasting is shown to be extremely promising. Inability to obtain repetitive coverage due to the 18 day cycle of LANDSAT, the occurrence of cloud cover and slow image delivery are obstacles to the immediate implementation of satellite derived snowcover in operational streamflow forecasting programs.

Shafer, B. A.↗

Spectral Study of Water Tracks as an Analog for Recurring Slope Lineae

Liquid water is a key requirement for life on Earth, and serves as an important constraint on present day habitability on Mars. Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) are a unique phenomenon on Mars that may be formed by brine seeps. Their morphological, seasonal and temporal characteristics support this hypothesis; however, spectral evidence has been lacking. Ojha et al., 2013 recently analyzed CRISM images from all confirmed RSL in the southern mid-latitudes and equatorial regions and found no spectro-scopic evidence for water. Instead, enhanced abun-dances or distinct grain sizes of both ferric and ferrous minerals are observed at most sites. The strength of these spectral signatures changes as a function of sea-son, possibly indicating removal of a fine-grained sur-face component during RSL flow, precipitation of fer-ric oxides, and/or wetting of the substrate. Water tracks (WT) have been suggested as a terrestrial analog for RSL by Levy et al., 2011. WT are defined as dark surface features that extend downslope in a linear or branching fashion, usually oriented along the steepest local gradient, in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. They can be 1-3 m in width and can have lengths up to 2 km. They share many morphological and seasonal characteristics with RSL including active growth during summer seasons and fading during winter. Snowmelt, ground ice melt and deliquescence by hygroscopic salts have been suggested as possible formation mechanisms for water tracks. No spectral work to date has been reported for water tracks.

volumet-ric water content (VWC)↗

Melting in Martian Snowbanks

Precipitation as snow is an emerging paradigm for understanding water flow on Mars, which gracefully resolves many outstanding uncertainties in climatic and geomorphic interpretation. Snowfall does not require a powerful global greenhouse to effect global precipitation. It has long been assumed that global average temperatures greater than 273K are required to sustain liquid water at the surface via rainfall and runoff. Unfortunately, the best greenhouse models to date predict global mean surface temperatures early in Mars' history that differ little from today's, unless exceptional conditions are invoked. Snowfall however, can occur at temperatures less than 273K; all that is required is saturation of the atmosphere. At global temperatures lower than 273K, H2O would have been injected into the atmosphere by impacts and volcanic eruptions during the Noachian, and by obliquity-driven climate oscillations more recently. Snow cover can accumulate for a considerable period, and be available for melting during local spring and summer, unless sublimation rates are sufficient to remove the entire snowpack. We decided to explore the physics that controls the melting of snow in the high-latitude regions of Mars to understand the frequency and drainage of snowmelt in the high martian latitudes.

Zent, A. P.↗

An Agent-Based Interface to Terrestrial Ecological Forecasting

The latest generation of NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites has brought a new dimension to continuous monitoring of the living part of the Earth System, the biosphere. EOS data can now provide weekly global measures of vegetation productivity and ocean chlorophyll, and many related biophysical factors such as land cover changes or snowmelt rates. However, the highest economic value would come from forecasting impending conditions of the biosphere, to allow decision makers to mitigate dangers or exploit positive trends. NASA's strategic plan for the Earth Science Enterprise i d e n a s ecological forecasting as a focus for research. Ecological forecasting predicts the effects of changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment on ecosystem activity. Possible applications of such a system include predicting shortfalls or bumper crops of agricultural production, populations of threatened or invasive species or wildfire danger in time to allow improves preparation and logistical efficiency. Petabytes of remote sensing data are now available to help measure, understand and forecast changes in the Earth system, but using these data effectively can be surprisingly hard. The volume and variety of data files and formats are daunting. Simple data management activities, such as locating and transferring files, changing file formats, gridding point data, and scaling and reprojecting gridded data, can consume far more personnel time and resources than the actual data analysis. Some scientists commit to a particular data source or resolution just because using anything different would be more effort that it's worth. Better tools can help, but most of the tools developed to date are little more than shell scripts; they lack the flexibility to meet the diverse needs of users and are difficult to extend to handle changes in available data sources.

Golden, Keith↗