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NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory for the Heliospheric Data Environment

The heliosphere is pervaded by interplanetary energetic particles, traditionally also called cosmic rays, from solar, internal heliospheric, and galactic sources. The particles species of interest to heliophysics extend from plasma energies to the GeV energies of galactic cosmic rays still measurably affected by heliospheric modulation and the still higher energies contributing to atmospheric ionization. The NASA and international Heliospheric Network of operational and legacy spacecraft measures interplanetary fluxes of these particles. Spatial coverage extends from the inner heliosphere and geospace to the heliosheath boundary region now being traversed by Voyager 1 and soon by Voyager 2. Science objectives include investigation of solar flare and coronal mass ejection events, acceleration and transport of interplanetary particles within the inner heliosphere, cosmic ray interactions with planetary surfaces and atmospheres, sources of suprathermal and anomalous cosmic ray ions in the outer heliosphere, and solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays. The Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO) will improve access and usability of selected spacecraft and sub-orbital NASA heliospheric energetic particle data sets as a newly approved effort within the evolving heliophysics virtual observatory environment. In this presentation, we will describe current VEPO science requirements, our initial priorities and an overview of our strategy to implement VEPO rapidly and at minimal cost by working within the high-level framework of the Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO). VEPO will also leverage existing data services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility and other existing capabilities of the U.S. and international heliospheric research communities.

Cooper, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO)

The Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO) focuses on improved discovery, access, and usability of heliospheric energetic particle and ancillary data products from selected spacecraft and sub-orbital instruments of the heliophysics data environment. The energy range of interest extends over the full range of particle acceleration from keV energies of suprathermal seed particles to GeV energies of galactic cosmic ray particles. Present spatial coverage is for operational and legacy spacecraft operating from the inner to the outer heliosphere, e.g. from measurements by the two Helios spacecraft to 0.3 AU to the inner heliosheath region now being traversed by the two Voyager spacecraft. This coverage will eventually be extended inward to ten solar radii by the planned NASA solar probe mission and at the same time beyond the heliopause into the outer heliosheath by continued Voyager operations. The geospace fleet of spacecraft providing near-Earth interplanetary measurements, selected magnetospheric spacecraft providing direct measurements of penetrating interplanetary energetic particles, and interplanetary cruise measurements from planetary spacecraft missions further extend VEPO resources to the domain of geospace and planetary interactions. Ground-based (e.g., neutron monitor) and high-altitude suborbital measurements can expand coverage to the highest energies of galactic cosmic rays affected by heliospheric interaction and of solar energetic particles. Science applications include investigation of solar flare and coronal mass ejection events. acceleration and transport of interplanetary particles within the inner heliosphere, cosmic ray interactions with planetary surfaces and atmospheres, sources of suprathermal and anomalous cosmic ray ions in the outer heliosphere, and solar cycle modulation of galactic cosmic rays. Robotic and human exploration, and eventual habitation, of planetary and space environments beyond the Earth require knowledge of radiation hazards informed by VEPO data resources. The VEPO project has completed the first year of work to define science requirements, to document and register selected data products in SPASE format while evolving SPASE for increased applicability to VEPO data, and to support enhanced discovery and access for these products through the evolving data query and middleware system of the Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO). The VEPO team operates as a heliophysics focus group for energetic particle data resources in partnership with VHO and also leverages existing data services of NASA's Space Physics Data Facility. We invite comments from the U.S. and international data provider and user communities on review of the current VEPO/VHO user interface, on directions for future evolution of VEPO and supporting data systems including VHO and SPDF, and on relations to other elements of the heliophysics virtual observatory environment.

Cooper, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Solar Flares, Type III Radio Bursts, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Energetic Particles

In this correlative study between greater than 20 MeV solar proton events, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and radio bursts it is found that essentially all of the proton events are preceded by groups of type III bursts and all are preceded by CMEs. These type III bursts (that are a flare phenomenon) usually are long-lasting, intense bursts seen in the low-frequency observations made from space. They are caused by streams of electrons traveling from close to the solar surface out to 1 AU. In most events the type III emissions extend into, or originate at, the time when type II and type IV bursts are reported (some 5 to 10 minutes after the start of the associated soft X-ray flare) and have starting frequencies in the 500 to approximately 100 MHz range that often get lower as a function of time. These later type III emissions are often not reported by ground-based observers, probably because of undue attention to type II bursts. It is suggested to call them type III-1. Type III-1 bursts have previously been called shock accelerated (SA) events, but an examination of radio dynamic spectra over an extended frequency range shows that the type III-1 bursts usually start at frequencies above any type II burst that may be present. The bursts sometimes continue beyond the time when type II emission is seen and, furthermore, sometimes occur in the absence of any type II emission. Thus the causative electrons are unlikely to be shock accelerated and probably originate in the reconnection regions below fast CMEs. A search did not find any type III-1 bursts that were not associated with CMEs. The existence of low-frequency type III bursts proves that open field lines extend from within 0.5 radius of the Sun into the interplanetary medium (the bursts start above 100 MHz, and such emission originates within 0.5 solar radius of the solar surface). Thus it is not valid to assume that only closed field lines exist in the flaring regions associated with CMEs and some interplanetary particles originating in such flare regions might be expected in all solar particle events.

Cane, Hilary V.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

Most space-bound hardware needs to be designed to withstand space weather events to some degree. Long-term predictability of space weather events, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections, are still a matter of theory so designers should assume a worst case event for their specific environment. In our analysis, we show preliminary results of the probability of encountering a false/true go/no-go based on a threshold launch and design proton environment. The goal in choosing a threshold launch environment is to avoid the chance of exceeding the design environment during vulnerable parts of the mission. Operationally, this method cannot predict damaging space weather but can aid in avoiding space weather events that are already occurring. The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) proton flux database is used as a proxy for the heavy ion fluxes, which impart a greater threat because of larger single event upsets and effects. Our use of protons as a proxy for heavy ions is justified on the basis of the correlation between their fluxes shown by a qualitative comparison of GOES proton integral fluxes at greater than 10 megaelectronvolts and ACE/SIS (Advanced Composition Explorer / Solar Isotope Spectrometer) heavy ion integral fluxes.

DeStefano, Anthony M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coronal mass ejections and major solar flares: The great active center of March 1989

The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation.Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an 'evolving magnetic structure' (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape form the Sun during the solar cycle.

Feynman, Joan↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Probability of False Go/No-Go Determined by GOES Proton Flux: Proposed Launch Constraints for Avoiding Damaging Solar Energetic Particle Events

The space environment is full of harmful radiation and high energy particles that can cause damage to materials and affect computer systems by e.g., single event effects (SEEs), total ionizing dose (TID), etc. There are three main sources of high energy particles: Trapped radiation in Earth's Van Allen belts (electrons and protons); Solar energetic particles (SEPs) (protons and heavy ions); Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) (protons and heavy ions). In this study, we focus on the SEPs and their time series and energy spectrum to quantify probabilities of launch go/no-go. The SEPs originate from solar particle events (SPEs) that are associated with a solar flare and/or a coronal mass ejection (CME). These events are difficult to predict. Recent work has been done on these prediction techniques. The Geostarionary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) has been observing SEPs for decades. The greater than 10 megaelectronvolt proton flux is shown in Figure 2 since 1986. The SEPs are influenced by the 11-year solar cycle and typically come from active regions on the Sun.

DeStefano, Anthony M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The correlation of coronal mass ejections with energetic flare proton events

Proton events of energies of at least 4 MeV presumed due to solar flares are compared with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed with an orbiting coronagraph. H alpha flares are associated with 27 of the 50 flare proton events of the study. Each of these 27 flares is then associated temporally and spatially with a CME, confirming the earlier conclusion, based on Skylab data, that a CME may be a necessary condition for a flare proton event. Peak 4-22 MeV proton fluxes correlate with both the speeds and the angular sizes of the associated CMEs. CMEs of larger angular sizes are more likely to be loops or fans rather than jets or spikes and are more likely to intersect the ecliptic.

Kahler, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Requirements for Progress in Understanding Solar Flare Energy Transport: The Gradual Phase

Solar flares are a fundamental component of solar eruptive events (SEEs), along with solar energetic particles (SEPs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flare emission is the first component of a SEE to impact the Earth’s atmosphere which can set the stage for the later arrival of the associated SEPs, CME, and space weather event. Magnetic reconnection drives SEEs by restructuring the solar coronal magnetic field, liberating a tremendous amount of energy which is partitioned into various physical manifestations: particle acceleration, mass and magnetic-field eruption, atmospheric heating, and the subsequent emission of radiation as solar flares. In this white paper we discuss the observational and theoretical advances required in order to make substantial progress in understanding the physical processes acting during the gradual phase of a flare. That is, the decay period, following the initial rapid release of energy during the impulsive phase (see our other white paper). In particular we want to address the unknown processes that sustain the long decay phase of flares and identify the unknown mechanism and magnitude of continued energy injection during the gradual phase.

Graham S Kerr↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigating Space Weather Events Impacting the Spitzer Space Telescope

Our understanding of the dynamical process in the space environment has increased dramatically. A relatively new field of study called "Space Weather" has emerged in the last few decades. Fundamental to the study of space weather is an understanding of how space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections impact spacecraft in varying orbits and distances around the Sun. Specialized space weather satellite monitoring systems operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) allow scientists to predict space weather events affecting critical systems on and orbiting the Earth. However, the Spitzer Space Telescope is in an orbit far outside the areas covered by those space weather monitoring systems. This poses a challenge for the Spitzer's Mission Operations Team in determining whether space weather events affect Spitzer.

solar flare↗
NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proof-of-Concept Trajectory Designs for a Multi-Spacecraft, Low-Thrust Heliocentric Solar Weather Buoy Mission

A new solar weather mission has been proposed, involving a dozen or more small spacecraft spaced at regular, constant intervals in a mutual heliocentric circular orbit between the orbits of Earth and Venus. These solar weather buoys (SWBs) would carry instrumentation to detect and measure the material in solar flares, solar energetic particle events, and coronal mass ejections as they flowed past the buoys, serving both as science probes and as a radiation early warning system for the Earth and interplanetary travelers to Mars. The baseline concept involves placing a mothercraft carrying the SWBs into a staging orbit at the Sun-Earth L1 libration point. The mothercraft departs the L1 orbit at the proper time to execute a trailing-edge lunar flyby near New Moon, injecting it into a heliocentric orbit with its perihelion interior to Earth s orbit. An alternative approach would involve the use of a Double Lunar Swingby (DLS) orbit, rather than the L1 orbit, for staging prior to this flyby. After injection into heliocentric orbit, the mothercraft releases the SWBs-all equipped with low-thrust pulsed plasma thrusters (PPTs)-whereupon each SWB executes a multi-day low-thrust finite bum around perihelion, lowering aphelion such that each achieves an elliptical phasing orbit of different orbital period from its companions. The resulting differences in angular rates of motion cause the spacecraft to separate. While the lead SWB achieves the mission orbit following an insertion burn at its second perihelion passage, the remaining SWBs must complete several revolutions in their respective phasing orbits to establish them in the mission orbit with the desired longitudinal spacing. The complete configuration for a 14 SWB scenario using a single mothercraft is achieved in about 8 years, and the spacing remains stable for at least a further 6 years. Flight operations can be simplified, and mission risk reduced, by employing two mothercraft instead of one. In this scenario: the second mothercraft stays in a libration-point or DLS staging orbit until the first mothercraft has achieved nearly 180 separation from the Earth. The timing of the second mothercraft's subsequent lunar flyby is planned such that this spacecraft will be located 180 from the first mothercraft upon completion of its heliocentric circularization maneuvers. Both groups of satellites then only have to spread out over 180 to obtain full 360 coverage around the Sun.

Muller, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Updated Solar Activity Prediction during the MAVEN Mission, but Should We Believe It?

Mars atmospheric processes are very dependent not only on the absolute level of the solar irradiance but also the changes in solar irradiance. Correlated with many of these irradiance changes, especially during solar flares, are large particle events called coronal mass ejections that themselves significantly drive processes in the Martian atmosphere. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a consensus solar cycle activity prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24 maximum, and this maximum period of solar activity will be during the prime MAVEN science mission. This 'consensus' prediction calls for lower activity than the previous solar cycle maximum that occurred during the years 2001-2002, but looking at the wide spread of peer-reviewed predictions there is little faith that can be taken in any one prediction. This drives the importance of real-time measurements from the LPW/EUV diodes and the measurement and modeling results that will be improved upon using results from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Chamberlin, Philip↗
NASA NTRS2022

Requirements for Progress in Understanding Solar Flare Energy Transport: The Impulsive Phase

Solar flares are a fundamental component of solar eruptive events (SEEs), along with solar energetic particles (SEPs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flare emission is the first component of a SEE to impact the Earth’s ionosphere which can set the stage for the later effects of the space weather event. Magnetic reconnection drives SEEs by restructuring the solar coronalmagnetic field, liberating a tremendous amount of energy which is partitioned into various physical manifestations: particle acceleration,mass and magnetic-field eruption, atmospheric heating, and the subsequent emission of radiation as solar flares. In this white paper we discuss the observational and theoretical advances required in order to make substantial progress in understanding the physical processes acting during the impulsive phase of a flare. That is, the initial rapid and intense period in which a tremendous amount of energy is released over the span of several minutes, resulting in the dramatic broadband increase to the solar radiative output. A second white paper by us covers the flare’s gradual phase, that is the decay phase where processes occur over longer timescales.

Graham S. Kerr↗
NASA NTRS2005

Hard X-ray Spectroscopic, Microwave and H-alpha Linear Polarization Studies with Hard X-Ray Observations from HESSI

The Principal Investigator (P.I.) has been pursuing a three year grant under NASA's Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program in support of the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). An objective of these efforts is to combine X-ray and other data on solar flares, coronal mass ejections and interplanetary particle events in order to obtain a more comprehensive recognition of signatures, and understanding of interplanetary proton events. Thus, part of these efforts are to investigate if signatures seen in hard X-rays and microwaves can lead to better predictions of interplanetary proton events that can be dangerous to astronauts and spacecraft. The original proposal was written in May, 2000 and it discusses a three-pronged approach for data comparisons with three new types of instrumentation observing at X-ray, microwave and optical wavelengths. The major impetus behind this work and the proposal is that the P.I. discovered a strong correlation between a particular type of hard X-ray signature seen in spectral evolutions and interplanetary proton events (Kiplinger, 1995). The basic signature is that hard X-ray flux peaks either exhibit spectra that soften on their decays (Le. show fewer and fewer high energy X-rays with time) or they harden during decays (i.e. high energy X-rays decay significantly slower that lower energy X-rays). This signature is called progressive hardening. Studies were conducted over an eight-year period of data from the Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) of the Solar maximum mission. Out of the 750 well observed flares studied, 41 flares had major associated proton events. Of these, 29 events were predicted on the basis of progressive hardening for a hit rate of 71%. The 152 largest flares had a hit rate of 82%.

Kiplinger, Alan L.↗