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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Eight decades of research on the long-term health effects of radiation in atomic bomb survivors and their offspring

Abstract This year marks the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Over the past eight decades, large-scale cohort studies of atomic bomb survivors and their offspring conducted by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, have provided critical insights into the long-term health effects of radiation exposure. Key findings include early identification of radiation-associated leukemia, as well as excess risks of all solid cancers combined, and most individual cancer sites. Observed radiation dose–response relationships have generally followed a linear-quadratic model for leukemia and a linear model for all solid cancers. Recent findings indicating possible upward curvature in the dose–response for all solid cancers may reflect underlying heterogeneity in factors related to individual cancer sites and should be explored further. Generally, younger age at exposure, lower attained age, and female sex appear to show greater radiation sensitivity for all solid cancers combined but results differ by individual cancer site. Recent studies have also identified potential radiation-related excesses for non-cancer diseases such as cataracts, various circulatory diseases, and others. Studies of heritable effects on the offspring of exposed atomic bomb survivors, in contrast, have shown no elevated risk to date in offspring from parental radiation exposure, either at the molecular or disease level. With the cooperation of the atomic bomb survivors and their families, Radiation Effects Research Foundation’s research will continue to play a crucial role in informing the health of survivors, their families, and global radiation protection in the decades to come.

Oncology↗

Cleaner Cooking: Exploring Tools to Measure and Understand the Long-term Adoption and Environmental Significance of Cookstoves in India

About 40% of the world’s population, or roughly 3 billion people, rely on solid biomass fuels like coal, wood, dung, and crop residues to cook and meet their household energy needs. This outdated energy system has severe social, health, and environmental implications. Women are disproportionately affected as they predominantly bear the burden of cooking and collecting fuelwood, which exacerbates the “time poverty” trap that restricts them from participating in economic and educational activities. Exposure to indoor solid fuel combustion, also known as household air pollution, is responsible for 3-4 million premature deaths per year and is a leading risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, childhood pneumonia, stroke, ischemic heart disease, and lung cancer. Solid-fuel cooking contributes to 16% of global ambient air pollution, emitting CO 2 and other climate-forcing pollutants like carbon monoxide, black carbon, and methane.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effect of radiation exposure on survival after first solid cancer diagnosis in A-bomb survivors

Comparison of the estimated effect of atomic bomb radiation exposure on solid cancer incidence and solid cancer mortality in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) reveals a difference in the magnitude and shape of the excess relative risk dose response. A possible contributing factor to this difference is pre-diagnosis radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival. Pre-diagnosis radiation exposure theoretically could influence post-diagnosis survival by affecting the genetic makeup and possibly aggressiveness of cancer, or by compromising tolerance for aggressive treatment for cancer. We analyze the radiation effect on post-diagnosis survival in 20,463 LSS subjects diagnosed with first-primary solid cancer between 1958 and 2009 with particular attention to whether death was caused by the first-primary cancer, other cancer, or non-cancer diseases. From multivariable Cox regression analysis of cause-specific survival, the excess hazard at 1 Gy (EH 1Gy ) for death from the first primary cancer was not significantly different from zero – p = 0.23, EH 1Gy = 0.038 (95 % CI: –0.023, 0.104). Death from other cancer and death from non-cancer diseases both were significantly associated with radiation dose: other cancer EH 1Gy = 0.38 (95 % CI: 0.24, 0.53); non-cancer EH 1Gy = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.13, 0.36), both p < 0.001. There is no detectable large effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on post-diagnosis death from the first primary cancer in A-bomb survivors. A direct effect of pre-diagnosis radiation exposure on cancer prognosis is ruled out as an explanation for the difference in incidence and mortality dose response in A-bomb survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Use of Longitudinal Serum Analysis and Machine Learning to Develop a Classifier for Cancer Early Detection

Early detection of solid tumors through a simple screening process, such as the proteomic analysis of biofluids, has the potential to significantly alter the management and outcomes of cancers. The application of advanced targeted proteomics measurements and data analysis strategies to uniformly collected serum or plasma samples would enable longitudinal studies of cancer risk, progression, and response to therapy that have the potential to significantly reduce cancer burden in general. In this article, we describe a generalizable workflow combining robust, multiplexed targeted proteomics measurements applied to longitudinal samples from the Department of Defense Serum Repository with a Random Forest machine learning method for developing and initially evaluating the performance of candidate biomarker panels for early detection of cancers. The effectiveness of this approach was demonstrated in a cohort of 175 head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients. The outlined protocols include methods for sample preparation, instrument analysis, and data analysis and interpretation using this workflow.

Longitudinal analysis, machine learning, cancer, e↗

Health Hazards of Exposures to Radioiodine

Iodine is a chemical element with atomic number 53. Iodine-127 is stable (non-radioactive) and commonly found in nature. Elemental iodine is a purple-colored solid at room temperature and pressure, but spontaneously sublimates (turns into vapor). Iodine is an essential element for life, and is required for proper functioning of the thyroid. Iodine is present in many foods, and is readily absorbed by the body and concentrated in the thyroid gland. A fraction of iodine ingested or inhaled is rapidly removed by the kidneys. The rest of the inhaled or ingested iodine is absorbed the by thyroid and retained for many months. Iodine has a biological half-life of approximately 120 days in health individuals. The biological half-life can be shorter in individuals with hyperthyroidism, and longer in individuals with hypothyroidism. Iodine has a number of radioactive isotopes, most of which have relatively short half-lives (days or weeks). Short half-life iodine isotopes are useful for a variety of medical applications, including imaging and cancer therapy. For example, Iodine-123 (half-life 13 hours) is commonly used for medical imaging of the thyroid, while iodine-131 (half-life 8 days) is used for suppressing thyroid function in individuals with hyperthyroidism or ablating (killing) thyroid cells to treat thyroid cancer. Iodine-125 (half-life 59 days) is produced in nuclear reactors, and has medical uses. Although iodine-125 can be used for thyroid imaging, Iodine-123 is more commonly used for that purpose because of its shorter half-life and higher-energy emissions. Iodine-125 is more commonly used for cancer treatment, and can be processed into small metal pellets (seeds) inserted directly into a tumor. Iodine-125 emits low-energy x-rays which can kill tumor cells and generally cannot escape the tumor, sparing other tissues. Medical iodine for imaging or treatment is typically administered orally in the form a pill or liquid solution. A typical adult thyroid scan using iodine-123 involves having the patient swallow between one and four 0.1 millicuries pills, with the exact dose dependent on the patient’s weight. This results in a whole-body committed effective dose of 80 – 320 mrem, and a thyroid equivalent dose of 1443 – 5772 mrem. Note that the whole-body effective dose relates to the overall cancer risk, while the larger equivalent dose to the thyroid only indicates that most of this risk is the result of exposure to the thyroid. These doses are considered safe, although the procedure is not recommended for pregnant or breastfeeding women. In contrast, the quantities of iodine-131 used for treatment of hyperthyroidism and thyroid cancers are much higher. For treatment of hyperthyroidism, 4 – 10 millicuries are administered, while for thyroid cancer the administration can range from 50 – 150 millicuries of I-131. In addition to medical exposures, large populations were exposed to radioiodine as result of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, and the Chernobyl nuclear accident. These populations have been carefully followed for many years to assess the effect of their radiation exposures on cancer risk. As a result, a great deal is known about the cancer risks associated with radioiodine exposure. Because iodine is concentrated in the thyroid, the principal risk of exposure to radioiodine is thyroid cancer. Children have the highest risk of thyroid cancer after exposure to radioactive iodine. According to a large study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors, an effective dose of one Sievert (100,000 mrem) has been observed to increase the risk of thyroid cancer by a factor of 9.5 in children aged zero to nine years old, by a factor of 3 in children aged 10 to 19 years old, and by barely detectable amounts in adults. Another way of quantifying the risk from radioiodine exposure is from risk coefficients, which provide the risk per unit intake of radionuclides in terms of both morbidity (any cancer) and mortality (death). Both morbidity (risk of cancer) and mortality (death) risks are shown in the table below. Note that because thyroid cancer is almost never fatal, the morbidity coefficients are much larger than the mortality coefficients.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗