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Machine Learning in Heliophysics and space weather forecasting: a white paper of finding and recommendations
The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology,Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers,expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants
International Heliophysical Year Contributions to Space Weather Research
The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) is concerned with the study of universal processes in the heliosphere, and international scientific cooperation. The result has been an international cooperative effort, jointly with the United Nations COPUOS, to study process which form the basis of our understanding of Space Weather. It this talk I will review the objectives of the IHY, and the progress made in the deployment of several instrument arrays and investigations which study space weather phenomena.
Making Heliophysics Research More Open and Accessible at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)
The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community seeks to improve our understanding of space weather events and their impact on human activities. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is to support the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform that brings together space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. This presentation reports on CCMC’s ongoing efforts in making Heliophysics models and data more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will also explore interoperability within the ecosystem of CCMC services and how this ecosystem interoperates with external partner services and data streams.
Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?
"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.
Artemis, Gateway, the Return to the Moon and Forward to Mars for Heliophysics
Over a 100 years ago we humans first landed on Antarctica. At the time we could not have imagined the heliophysics scientific gains that would be got from this continent. Sixty-five years ago we had the first international geophysical year aimed at deployment of instrumentation across this southern most continent and around the globe in recognition of the potential advancements from this integrated system of measurements. This potential has been realized and continues to grow as Antarctica returns science results across most disciplines, inspires artists and athletes, and has touched the lives of many through these gains. Today we are on the precipice of a future new Antarctica with the launch of Artemis 1 and plans for the return of humans to the lunar surface and human exploration to Mars. Heliophysics and space weather are necessary components for the success of these dreams and will benefit greatly from the fundamental science exploration that Artemis and mission to Mars will enable. Within this paper we will discuss the ways in which Artemis and the mission to Mars will benefit Heliophysics and space weather and end with recommendations for steps we see needed to actualize these dreams.
Artemis, Gateway, the Return to the Moon and Forward to Mars for Heliophysics
Over a 100 years ago we humans first landed on Antarctica. At the time we could not have imagined the heliophysics scientific gains that would be got from this continent. Sixty-five years ago we had the first international geophysical year aimed at deployment of instrumentation across this southern most continent and around the globe in recognition of the potential advancements from this integrated system of measurements. This potential has been realized and continues to grow as Antarctica returns science results across most disciplines, inspires artists and athletes, and has touched the lives of many through these gains. Today we are on the precipice of a future new Antarctica with the launch of Artemis 1 and plans for the return of humans to the lunar surface and human exploration to Mars. Heliophysics and space weather are necessary components for the success of these dreams and will benefit greatly from the fundamental science exploration that Artemis and mission to Mars will enable. Within this paper we will discuss the ways in which Artemis and the mission to Mars will benefit Heliophysics and space weather and end with recommendations for steps we see needed to actualize these dreams.
Lowering Barriers to Science and Space Weather Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)
The Space Weather and Heliophysics research and modeling community has been pushing the limits of our ability to understand and predict space weather events. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) supports the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform hosting space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. We will focus on CCMC’s ongoing commitment to the principles and guidelines of the Open Science initiative. Particularly, we will discuss our work towards making our services more transparent and our library of model simulations more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will introduce our recent tools for data discovery and correlative analysis designed to further increase the value of the user-generated data and metadata. We will also present our recent work on making heliophysical models more accessible and open to the community, particularly through simplified user experience and expert domain support. We will report on our progress in establishing an inter-center infrastructure with the ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC), designed to cross organizational boundaries and provide streamlined access to a joint palette of the models.
Model-Specific Metadata for Enhancing Space Science Models
The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community, supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), provides a collaborative platform for space weather models and data. Flexible metadata is vital for advancing scientific research and fostering collaboration. Our work in expressing complex simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), particularly Global Magnetosphere (GM) grid components, in terms of simple metadata records shows great promise in creating searchable and reusable units of knowledge. Such records can be readily utilized to support the process of scientific discovery, closely aligning with the goals outlined in the Open Science initiative. Our primary goal is to show the scalability and benefits of metadata-focused methodologies. This presentation highlights the potential for applying metadata methodologies to other complex models, improving usability, supplying efficient documentation and fostering interdisciplinary research.
Enabling API Access to the Space Weather Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center
Over the span of 20 years, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) has been leading a number of community-driven services and applications that provide a free and open access to the cutting-edge space weather and Heliophysics models through a simple web-based interface. CCMC also oversees an open archive of user model simulations and related metadata, maintains space weather-related data streams, curates validation and event datasets, and more. To maximize utility of its complementary services and data holdings, CCMC has been gradually building up an ad-hoc set of interfaces and specifications that facilitate coupling and interconnection within the organization, while also simplifying management and monitoring of the data. As the models continue to grow in maturity and complexity, CCMC is looking to reduce the complexity for its end users by making public some of the internal APIs as well as implementing dedicated interfaces as required by the community. In this presentation, we will overview the current run services at CCMC and will describe our current and near-future efforts in providing interfaces to these services.
Space Weathering Investigations Enabled by NASA's Virtual Heliophysical Observatories
Structural and chemical impact of the heliospheric space environment on exposed planetary surfaces and interplanetary dust grains may be generally defined as space weathering . In the inner solar system, from the asteroid belt inwards towards the Sun, the surface regolith structures of airless bodies are primarily determined by cumulative meteoritic impacts over billions of years, but the molecular composition to meters in depth can be substantially modified by irradiation effects. Plasma ions at eV to keV energies may both erode uppermost surfaces by sputtering, and implant or locally produce exogenic material, e.g. He-3 and H2O, while more energetic ions drive molecular change through electronic ionization. Galactic cosmic ray ions and more energetic solar ions can impact chemistry to meters in depth. High energy cosmic ray interactions produce showers of secondary particles and energetic photons that present hazards for robotic and human exploration missions but also enable detection of potentially useable resources such as water ice, oxygen, and many other elements. Surface sputtering also makes ejected elemental and molecular species accessible for in-situ compositional analysis by spacecraft with ion and neutral mass spectrometers. Modeling of relative impacts for these various space weathering processes requires knowledge of the incident species-resolved ion flux spectra at plasma to cosmic ray energies and as integrated over varying time scales. Although the main drivers for investigations of these processes come from NASA's planetary science and human exploration programs, the NASA heliophysics program provides the requisite data measurement and modeling resources to enable specification of the field & plasma and energetic particle irradiation environments for application to space weather and surface weathering investigations. The Virtual Heliospheric Observatory (VHO), Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (VEPO), Lunar Solar Origins Exploration (LunaSOX), and Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) services now provide a wide range of inner heliospheric spacecraft data that can be applied to space weathering of potential exploration destinations including the Moon, asteroids, and the moons of Mars, as well to radiation hazard assessment for the spacecraft and human explorers. For example, the new VEPO service for time-averaging of multi-source ion flux spectra enables the specification of composite flux spectra from a variety of ongoing and legacy missions for applications to surface interaction modeling. Apollo to Artemis data resources of LunaSOX enable specific space weathering investigations for the Moon, while VHO more generally covers the space field and plasma environments of the inner and outer solar system from the sunward-most perihelia of the twin Helios spacecraft to the ongoing heliosheath passages of the twin Voyagers. Composite multi-source spectra from VEPO can also be applied to the continuing compilation of accumulated 1-AU fluence spectra, mostly contributed by solar wind plasma and energetic particle events, for determination of time-averaged particle compositional and kinetic energy output from the Sun and for modeling of long-term irradiation impacts on planetary surfaces.
Increasing Accessibility of the Runs-on-Request Metadata, Data, and Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center
Space weather models are essential to our ability to understand and predict space weather events. For over 20 years, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) has been providing transformative tools and platforms for hosting space weather models and associated services, free and open to anyone interested in studying space weather. Runs-on-Request system (ROR) is one of the popular services at CCMC that permits researchers and other end-users to exercise cutting-edge hosted heliophysics and space weather models using a simple web interface, as well as collaborate on an extensive and continuously growing archive of over 28,000 model run results. Similar to other projects at CCMC, ROR has grown as a community project that strives to be open and transparent to its users. In this poster, we discuss some of our recent efforts to further expose ROR data, metadata, and services to the end users through both custom and community-developed access protocols. We also discuss how in-house science support provided by the CCMC team plays a paramount role in making ROR data and services truly accessible by the community.
SPORT: An International CubeSat Science Mission
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Advanced Concepts Swift Study
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The Solar Cruiser Mission
Selected by NASA as an ESPA-class rideshare technology demonstration mission to launch with the Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission in 2025, the NASA MSFC Solar Cruiser mission will mature solar sail technology for use in future Heliophysics missions, as well as missions of interest across a broad user community including NOAA, Earth, and Planetary Sciences. Solar sails, which use reflected sunlight to derive thrust, can be used to create artificial equilibria and near-indefinite station-keeping at locations sunward of L1 along the Sun Earth Line (SEL), or at any desired offset from the SEL leading or trailing the Earth in its orbit. They can change the heliocentric inclination of a spacecraft from the ecliptic to as high as solar polar, stopping and remaining at any intermediate inclination orbit in between or can be used around a range of solar system bodies. The Solar Cruiser mission will fly a small spacecraft (~100 kg) with a large (>1600 square meter) solar sail containing embedded reflectivity control devices (RCDs) and photovoltaic cells, attaining a characteristic acceleration of >0.12 mm/s2. The mission concept includes successful deployment of the solar sail, validation of all sail subsystems, controlled station-keeping inside of the Sun-Earth L1 point, demonstration of pointing performance for science imaging, and finally an increase in heliocentric inclination (out of the ecliptic plane). Solar Cruiser would serve as a pathfinder for missions that observe the solar environment from unique vantage points such as a high inclination solar mission, opening a fundamentally new range of observational capabilities for the Heliophysics Program and for space weather monitoring. Observations away from the Sun-Earth line (SEL) present unique opportunities for answering the outstanding science questions of Heliophysics, for improving space-weather monitoring and prediction, and for revealing new discoveries about our Sun and solar system. High solar inclinations are particularly compelling. Investment in, and demonstration of, the technology needed to enable polar missions is essential to making this unique vantage point a reality in the next decade.
The HERMES Payload for Gateway: Heliophysics Enabled by Lunar Exploration
At launch, the first two modules of the Gateway space station will carry external payloads from NASA and ESA designed to observe the space environment. The NASA payload is the Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES). The HERMES instrumentation includes an ion mass spectrometer, an electron electrostatic analyzer, a proton and electron telescope for energetic particles, and a set of magnetometers. After an approximately one year transit to the Moon, HERMES will begin a science campaign that addresses heliophysics and space-weather objectives. Analyses of the in-situ measurements from HERMES will leverage observations from other Heliophysics spacecraft missions to enable multipoint studies of structure in the solar wind and in the magnetotail. Gateway’s polar lunar orbit is advantageous for this purpose. HERMES also is a pathfinder for future payloads on human-exploration vessels, for which there will be pragmatic interest in the variable radiation environment. Thus, with observations enabled by the ARTEMIS Program, HERMES is expected to be enabling of future exploration missions. Additionally, although HERMES objectives have a space-weather focus, the measurements also can be useful for studies of the Moon. Data, algorithms, calibrations, and related software produced by the project will be fully open and accessible through a Science Operations Center. In this presentation we provide an overview of science plans, including expectations for collaboration with other HSO missions and with international partners. Plain-Language Summary: The HERMES scientific payload will be attached to the HALO module of the Artemis Program's Gateway lunar outpost. HERMES will observe space weather conditions from lunar orbit. The data will be freely available for studies of the Moon and its space environment.
The HERMES Payload for Gateway: Heliophysics Enabled by Lunar Exploration
At launch, the first two modules of the Gateway space station will carry external payloads from NASA and ESA designed to observe the space environment. The NASA payload is the Heliophysics Environmental and Radiation Measurement Experiment Suite (HERMES). The HERMES instrumentation includes an ion mass spectrometer, an electron electrostatic analyzer, a proton and electron telescope for energetic particles, and a set of magnetometers. After an approximately one year transit to the Moon, HERMES will begin a science campaign that addresses heliophysics and space-weather objectives. Analyses of the in-situ measurements from HERMES will leverage observations from other Heliophysics spacecraft missions to enable multipoint studies of structure in the solar wind and in the magnetotail. Gateway’s polar lunar orbit is advantageous for this purpose. HERMES also is a pathfinder for future payloads on human-exploration vessels, for which there will be pragmatic interest in the variable radiation environment. Thus, with observations enabled by the ARTEMIS Program, HERMES is expected to be enabling of future exploration missions. Additionally, although HERMES objectives have a space-weather focus, the measurements also can be useful for studies of the Moon. Data, algorithms, calibrations, and related software produced by the project will be fully open and accessible through a Science Operations Center. In this presentation we provide an overview of science plans, including expectations for collaboration with other HSO missions and with international partners.
The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)
The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.