Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Spatial colonization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Functionally discrete fine roots differ in microbial assembly, microbial functional potential, and produced metabolites

Traditionally, fine roots were grouped using arbitrary size categories, rarely capturing the heterogeneity in physiology, morphology and functionality among different fine root orders. Fine roots with different functional roles are rarely separated in microbiome-focused studies and may result in confounding microbial signals and host-filtering across different root microbiome compartments. Using a 26-year-old common garden, we sampled fine roots from four temperate tree species that varied in root morphology and sorted them into absorptive and transportive fine roots. The rhizoplane and rhizosphere were characterized using 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer region amplicon sequencing and shotgun metagenomics for the rhizoplane to identify potential microbial functions. Fine roots were subject to metabolomics to spatially characterize resource availability. Both fungi and bacteria differed according to root functional type. We observed additional differences between the bacterial rhizoplane and rhizosphere compartments for absorptive but not transportive fine roots. Rhizoplane bacteria, as well as the root metabolome and potential microbial functions, differed between absorptive and transportive fine roots, but not the rhizosphere bacteria. Functional differences were driven by sugar transport, peptidases and urea transport. Our data highlights the importance of root function when examining root-microbial relationships, emphasizing different host selective pressures imparted on different root microbiome compartments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Environmental factors driving spatial heterogeneity in desert halophile microbial communities

Spatial heterogeneity in microbial communities is observed in all-natural ecosystems and can stem from both adaptations to local environmental conditions as well as stochastic processes. Extremophile microbial communities inhabiting evaporitic halite nodules (salt rocks) in the Atacama Desert, Chile, are a good model ecosystem for investigating factors leading to microbiome heterogeneity, due to their diverse taxonomic composition and the spatial segregation of individual nodules. We investigated the abiotic factors governing microbiome composition across different spatial scales, allowing for insight into the factors that govern halite colonization from regional desert-wide scales to micro-scales within individual nodules. We found that water availability and community drift account for microbiome assembly differently at different distance scales, with higher rates of cell dispersion at the smaller scales resulting in a more homogenous composition. This trend likely applies to other endoliths, and to non desert communities, where dispersion between communities is limited. At the intra-nodule scales, a light availability gradient was most important in determining the distribution of microbial taxa despite intermixing by water displacement via capillary action.

microbiome extremophile, desert, heterogeneity, Me↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mapping Process to Pattern in the Landscape Change of the Amazonian Frontier

Changes in land use and land cover are dynamic processes reflecting a sequence of decisions made by individual land managers. In developing economies, these decisions may be embedded in the evolution of individual households, as is often the case in indigenous areas and agricultural frontiers. One goal of the present article is to address the land use and land-cover decisions of colonist farmers in the Amazon Basin as a function, in part, of household characteristics. Another goal is to generalize the issue of tropical deforestation into a broader discussion on forest dynamics. The extent of secondary forest in tropical areas has been well documented in South America and Africa. Agricultural-plot abandonment often occurs in tandem with primary forest clearance and as part of the same decision-making calculus. Consequently, tropical deforestation and forest succession are not independent processes in the landscape. This article presents a framework that integrates them into a model of forest dynamics at household level, and in so doing provides an account of the spatial pattern of deforestation that has been observed in the Amazon's colonization frontiers.

Walker, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2025

Clear as mud redefined: Tunable transparent mineral scaffolds for visualizing microbial processes below ground

Microbes inhabiting complex porous microenvironments in sediments and aquifers catalyze reactions that are critical to global biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem health. However, the opacity and complexity of porous sediment and rock matrices have considerably hindered the study of microbial processes occurring within these habitats. Here, we generated microbially compatible, optically transparent mineral scaffolds to visualize and investigate microbial colonization and activities occurring in these environments, in laboratory settings and in situ. Using inexpensive synthetic cryolite mineral, we produced optically transparent scaffolds mimicking the complex 3D structure of sediments and rocks by adapting a suspension-based, freeze-casting technique commonly used in materials science. Fine-tuning of parameters, such as freezing rate and choice of solvent, provided full control of pore size and architecture. The combined effects of scaffold porosity and structure on the movement of microbe-sized particles, tested using velocity tracking of fluorescent beads, showed diverse yet reproducible behaviors. The scaffolds we produced are compatible with epifluorescence microscopy, allowing the fluorescence-based identification of colonizing microbes by DNA-based staining and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to depths of 100 µm. Additionally, Raman spectroscopy analysis indicates minimal background signal in regions used for measuring deuterium and 13 C enrichment in microorganisms, highlighting the potential to directly couple D 2 O or 13 C stable isotope probing and Raman-FISH for quantifying microbial activity at the single-cell level. To demonstrate the relevance of cryolite scaffolds for environmental field studies, we visualized their colonization by diverse microorganisms within rhizosphere sediments of a coastal seagrass plant using epifluorescence microscopy. The tool presented here enables highly resolved, spatially explicit, and multimodal investigations into the distribution, activities, and interactions of underground microbes typically obscured within opaque geological materials until now.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2010

Complex Spatial Structure in a Population of Didymopanax pittieri, A Tree of Wind-Exposed Lower Montane Rain Forest

Didymopanax pittieri is a common shade-intolerant tree colonizing treefall gaps in the elfin forests on windswept ridgecrests in the lower montane rain forests of the Cordillera de Tilarain, Costa Rica. All D. pittieri taller than > 0.5 m in a 5.2-ha elfin forested portion of a gridded study watershed in the Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve were located, mapped, and measured. This local population of D. pittieri is spatially inhomogeneous, in that density increases with increasing wind exposure; D. pittieri are more abundant near ridge crests than lower on windward slopes. The important and ubiquitous phenomenon of spatial inhomogeneity in population density is addressed and corrected for in spatial analyses by the application of the inhomogeneous version of Ripley's K. The spatial patterns of four size classes of D. pittieri (<5 cm dbh, 5-10 cm dbh, 10-20 cm dbh, and> 20 cm dbh) were investigated. Within the large-scale trend in density driven by wind exposure, D. pittieri saplings are clumped at the scale of treefall gaps and at the scale of patches of aggregated gaps. D. pittieri 5-10 cm dbh are randomly distributed, apparently due to competitive thinning of sapling clumps during the early stages of gap-phase regeneration. D. pittieri larger than 10 cm dbh are overdispersed at a scale larger than that of patches of gaps. Natural disturbance can influence the distribution of shade intolerant tree populations at several different spatial scales, and can have discordant effects at different life history stages.

Lawton, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial co-transcriptomics reveals discrete stages of the arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis

Abstract The symbiotic interaction of plants with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi is ancient and widespread. Plants provide AM fungi with carbon in exchange for nutrients and water, making this interaction a prime target for crop improvement. However, plant–fungal interactions are restricted to a small subset of root cells, precluding the application of most conventional functional genomic techniques to study the molecular bases of these interactions. Here we used single-nucleus and spatial RNA sequencing to explore both Medicago truncatula and Rhizophagus irregularis transcriptomes in AM symbiosis at cellular and spatial resolution. Integrated, spatially registered single-cell maps revealed infected and uninfected plant root cell types. We observed that cortex cells exhibit distinct transcriptome profiles during different stages of colonization by AM fungi, indicating dynamic interplay between both organisms during establishment of the cellular interface enabling successful symbiosis. Our study provides insight into a symbiotic relationship of major agricultural and environmental importance and demonstrates a paradigm combining single-cell and spatial transcriptomics for the analysis of complex organismal interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Behavioral Model of Landscape Change in the Amazon Basin: The Colonist Case

This paper presents the prototype of a predictive model capable of describing both magnitudes of deforestation and its spatial articulation into patterns of forest fragmentation. In a departure from other landscape models, it establishes an explicit behavioral foundation for algorithm development, predicated on notions of the peasant economy and on household production theory. It takes a 'bottom-up' approach, generating the process of land-cover change occurring at lot level together with the geography of a transportation system to describe regional landscape change. In other words, it translates the decentralized decisions of individual households into a collective, spatial impact. In so doing, the model unites the richness of survey research on farm households with the analytical rigor of spatial analysis enabled by geographic information systems (GIs). The paper describes earlier efforts at spatial modeling, provides a critique of the so-called spatially explicit model, and elaborates a behavioral foundation by considering farm practices of colonists in the Amazon basin. It then uses, insight from the behavioral statement to motivate a GIs-based model architecture. The model is implemented for a long-standing colonization frontier in the eastern sector of the basin, along the Trans-Amazon Highway in the State of Para, Brazil. Results are subjected to both sensitivity analysis and error assessment, and suggestions are made about how the model could be improved.

Walker, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The NanoSIMS-HR: The Next Generation of High Spatial Resolution Dynamic SIMS

The high lateral resolution and sensitivity of the NanoSIMS 50 and 50L series of dynamic SIMS instruments have enabled numerous scientific advances over the past 25 years. Here, in this study, we report on the NanoSIMS-HR, the first major upgrade to the series, and analytical tests in a suite of sample types, including an aluminum sample containing silicon crystals, microalgae, and plant roots colonized with a symbiotic fungus. Significant improvements have been made in the Cs + ion source, high voltage (HV) control, stage reproducibility, and other aspects of the instrument that affect performance. The modified design of the NanoSIMS-HR thermal-ionization Cs + source enables a 5 pA primary ion beam to be focused into a 100 nm spot, a ~2.5-fold increase compared to Cs + sources on previous instruments (~2 pA at 100 nm). The brightness of the new Cs + source enables an ultimate lateral resolution as high as 30 nm and improved detection limits for a given analysis area. Sample stage movement accuracy is higher than 500 nm, enabling many-fold higher throughput automated analyses. With the new HV control, the primary ion beam impact energy can be reduced from 16 to 2 keV, which enables higher depth resolution during depth profiling (a 2-fold improvement), albeit with a 5-fold decrease in lateral resolution. In the NanoSIMS-HR, the secondary ion column and detection system are identical to those used in the previous series, and the isotopic analysis performance is as precise as in previous NanoSIMS instruments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Change: The Peasant Economy of Colonization in the Amazon Basin

This paper addresses deforestation processes in the Amazon basin. It deploys a methodology combining remote sensing and survey-based fieldwork to examine, with regression analysis, the impact household structure and economic circumstances on deforestation decisions made by colonist farmers in the forest frontiers of Brazil. Unlike most previous regression-based studies, the methodology implemented analyzes behavior at the level of the individual property. The regressions correct for endogenous relationships between key variables, and spatial autocorrelation, as necessary. Variables used in the analysis are specified, in part, by a theoretical development integrating the Chayanovian concept of the peasant household with spatial considerations stemming from von Thuenen. The results from the empirical model indicate that demographic characteristics of households, as well as market factors, affect deforestation in the Amazon. Thus, statistical results from studies that do not include household-scale information may be subject to error. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that environmental policies in the Amazon based on market incentives to small farmers may not be as effective as hoped, given the importance of household factors in catalyzing the demand for land. The paper concludes by noting that household decisions regarding land use and deforestation are not independent of broader social circumstances, and that a full understanding of Amazonian deforestation will require insight into why poor families find it necessary to settle the frontier in the first place.

Caldas, Marcellus↗
NASA NTRS2020

GLOBE Observer Data: 2016-2019

This technical report summarizes the GLOBE Observer dataset from 1 April 2016 to 1 December 2019. GLOBE Observer is an ongoing NASA-sponsored international citizen science project that is part of the larger Global Learning & Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Program, which has been in operation since 1995. GLOBE Observer has the greatest number of participants and geographic coverage of the citizen science projects in the Earth Science Division at NASA. Participants use the GLOBE Observer mobile app (launched in 2016) to collect atmospheric, hydrologic, and terrestrial observations. The app connects participants to satellite observations from Aqua, Terra, CALIPSO, and MODIS. 38,000 participants have contributed 320,000 observations worldwide, including 1,000,000 georeferenced photographs. It would take an individual more than 13 years to replicate this effort. The GLOBE Observer app has substantially increased the spatial extent and sampling density of GLOBE measurements and more than doubled the number of measurements collected through the GLOBE Program. GLOBE Observer data are publicly available at observer.globe.gov.

Helen M Amos↗
NASA NTRS2019

Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Hydrilla [Hydrilla verticillata (L. f.) Royle] to Aid Management Actions

Hydrilla is an invasive aquatic plant that has rapidly spread through many inland water bodies across the globe by outcompeting native aquatic plants. Drinking water supply, power generation, and recreational use of lakes are threatened by the spread of this invasive species. Moreover, hydrilla serves as a host for an epiphytic, toxic cyanobacteria known to be the causative agent of the neurodegenerative disease called avian vacuolar myelinopathy, which affects waterfowl, raptors, and amphibians. The early detection of hydrilla infestation is very important to reduce the costs associated with control and removal efforts of this invasive species. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing a rapid, frequent, and large-scale tool for monitoring and predicting spatial extent of hydrilla habitat. This was achieved by integrating in situ and Landsat 8 OLI satellite data for Lake J. Strom Thurmond, the largest US Army Corps of Engineers Lake east of the Mississippi River located on the Georgia/South Caroline border. The predictive model incorporated remote sensing reflectance, Secchi disk depth (SDD), light attenuation coefficient (Kd), maximum depth of colonization (Zc), and percentage of light available through water column (PLW). The model predicted ideal habitat for hydrilla featuring high SDD, low values of Kd, high Zc and PLW. Final analysis showed that hydrilla starts growing in April, reaches peak around October, begins retreating in the following months, and disappears in February. Additionally, physical meteorological factors were analyzed and were found to be closely associated with hydrilla extent. Management agencies can use these results to not only to plan future removal efforts, but also evaluate and adapt their current mitigation efforts.

Percentage of light available through the water co↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space radiation absorbed dose distribution in a human phantom

The radiation risk to astronauts has always been based on measurements using passive thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs). The skin dose is converted to dose equivalent using an average radiation quality factor based on model calculations. The radiological risk estimates, however, are based on organ and tissue doses. This paper describes results from the first space flight (STS-91, 51.65 degrees inclination and approximately 380 km altitude) of a fully instrumented Alderson Rando phantom torso (with head) to relate the skin dose to organ doses. Spatial distributions of absorbed dose in 34 1-inch-thick sections measured using TLDs are described. There is about a 30% change in dose as one moves from the front to the back of the phantom body. Small active dosimeters were developed specifically to provide time-resolved measurements of absorbed dose rates and quality factors at five organ locations (brain, thyroid, heart/lung, stomach and colon) inside the phantom. Using these dosimeters, it was possible to separate the trapped-proton and the galactic cosmic radiation components of the doses. A tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) and a charged-particle directional spectrometer (CPDS) were flown next to the phantom torso to provide data on the incident internal radiation environment. Accurate models of the shielding distributions at the site of the TEPC, the CPDS and a scalable Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) model of the phantom torso were developed. These measurements provided a comprehensive data set to map the dose distribution inside a human phantom, and to assess the accuracy and validity of radiation transport models throughout the human body. The results show that for the conditions in the International Space Station (ISS) orbit during periods near the solar minimum, the ratio of the blood-forming organ dose rate to the skin absorbed dose rate is about 80%, and the ratio of the dose equivalents is almost one. The results show that the GCR model dose-rate predictions are 20% lower than the observations. Assuming that the trapped-belt models lead to a correct orbit-averaged energy spectrum, the measurements of dose rates inside the phantom cannot be fully understood. Passive measurements using 6Li- and 7Li-based detectors on the astronauts and inside the brain and thyroid of the phantom show the presence of a significant contribution due to thermal neutrons, an area requiring additional study.

STS-91 Shuttle Project↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling depth resolved temporal resolved soil microbial sampling with novel vadose zone diffusion sampler

To address the difficulty in Earth system science in making time-course measurements of molecular signatures in soil biochemistry, we developed a soil stake system to sample and replace a defined soil analog medium, connected through hydraulic connectivity via perforated casings and modular inserts. We deployed these stakes to a site in Prosser, WA and measured microbial colonization of sterile sand-clay inserts enriched with N-acetyl-glucosamine at different depths over spring and summer. DNA and RNA analyses revealed distinct microbial recruitment and activity patterns. Inserts showed lower microbial diversity but higher abundance of Proteobacteriota and Bacteriota compared to native soils, alongside seasonal shifts in taxonomic and functional profiles. The soil stake system offers a novel approach for studying microbial dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid in situ diversification rates in Rhamnaceae explain the parallel evolution of high diversity in temperate biomes from global to local scales

Summary The macroevolutionary processes that have shaped biodiversity across the temperate realm remain poorly understood and may have resulted from evolutionary dynamics related to diversification rates, dispersal rates, and colonization times, closely coupled with Cenozoic climate change. We integrated phylogenomic, environmental ordination, and macroevolutionary analyses for the cosmopolitan angiosperm family Rhamnaceae to disentangle the evolutionary processes that have contributed to high species diversity within and across temperate biomes. Our results show independent colonization of environmentally similar but geographically separated temperate regions mainly during the Oligocene, consistent with the global expansion of temperate biomes. High global, regional, and local temperate diversity was the result of high in situ diversification rates, rather than high immigration rates or accumulation time, except for Southern China, which was colonized much earlier than the other regions. The relatively common lineage dispersals out of temperate hotspots highlight strong source‐sink dynamics across the cosmopolitan distribution of Rhamnaceae. The proliferation of temperate environments since the Oligocene may have provided the ecological opportunity for rapid in situ diversification of Rhamnaceae across the temperate realm. Our study illustrates the importance of high in situ diversification rates for the establishment of modern temperate biomes and biodiversity hotspots across spatial scales.

Plant Sciences↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Haiti Agriculture II: Evaluating the Success of Reforestation Practices in Haiti

The Caribbean country of Haiti has an extensive history of deforestation and environmental degradation stemming from French colonization. Over the past 33 years, the Haiti Reforestation Partnership (HRP) and their partners, Comprehensive Development Program (CODEP), have planted approximately 15.52 million trees. However, these efforts lacked scientific guidance to ensure successful forest stand survival. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the HRP to create a habitat suitability model (HSM) by using PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery. The team also incorporated Landsat 8 and 9 OLI surface temperature, Centre National de L’Information Geo-Spatiale (CNIGS) Airborne Lidar, and ancillary datasets to analyze areas suitable for future reforestation efforts. The habitat model suggested locations with higher forest stand survival based on topography, soil health, climate, and feasibility to access suggested locations. We confirmed the HSM through a cross-analyzation of high enhanced vegetation index (EVI) values. Areas with lower EVI values and higher suitability based on the HSM were suggested for future planting as they lack well-established forest stands but have optimal conditions for growth. Through the creation of the HSM, the team provided the HRP with static maps of high suitability, a 3D printed elevation model, and a guidebook for animators. Additionally, the team provided a structured video highlighting the HRP’s efforts. Effective reforestation and better forest stand survival would help to achieve the goal of securing community food security. This would also serve as a guide to expand planting efforts into other locations and communities.

Kelli Roberts↗
NASA NTRS1992

Three-dimensional co-culture process

The present invention relates to a 3-dimensional co-culture process, more particularly to methods or co-culturing at least two types of cells in a culture environment, either in space or in unit gravity, with minimum shear stress, freedom for 3-dimensional spatial orientation of the suspended particles and localization of particles with differing or similar sedimentation properties in a similar spatial region to form 3-dimensional tissue-like structures. Several examples of multicellular 3-dimensional experiences are included. The protocol and procedure are also set forth. The process allows simultaneous culture of multiple cell types and supporting substrates in a manner which does not disrupt the 3-dimensional spatial orientation of these components. The co-cultured cells cause a mutual induction effect which mimics the natural hormonal signals and cell interactions found in the intact organism. This causes the tissues to differentiate and form higher 3-dimensional structures such as glands, junctional complexes polypoid geometries, and microvilli which represent the corresponding in-vitro structures to a greater degree than when the cell types are cultured individually or by conventional processes. This process was clearly demonstrated for the case of two epithelial derived colon cancer lines, each co-cultured with normal human fibroblasts and with microcarrier bead substrates. The results clearly demonstrate increased 3-dimensional tissue-like structure and biochemical evidence of an increased differentiation state. With the present invention a variety of cells may be co-cultured to produce tissue which has 3-dimensionality and has some of the characteristics of in-vitro tissue. The process provides enhanced 3-dimensional tissue which create a multicellular organoid differentiation model.

Wolf, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing DOE Opportunities to Research Land–Atmosphere Interactions in the U.S. Southeast (Workshop Report)

The southeastern United States (Southeast), with its complex and varied environments, is an area of tremendous economic, ecological, and societal importance to the country. The region is characterized by heterogeneous landscapes (i.e., geology and soil type) and a long history of human land use coupled with a warm temperature regime and high precipitation. As a result, soil erosion and deposition are pronounced, vegetation recovery is rapid, and human modification is extensive across the region. To better understand land–atmosphere interactions in this important and complex region, research communities supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program identified the Southeast as a priority region of interest. In fall 2024, the third Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility (AMF3), one of three mobile monitoring facilities designed to collect atmospheric and climate data from undersampled regions around the world, will begin operations in northwestern Alabama’s Bankhead National Forest (BNF). The AMF3-BNF 5-year deployment, from 2024–2029, will monitor the effects of feedbacks among aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. It will also focus on scale aggregation to resolve the role of local forcing on larger-scale processes. To enable broader AMF3 involvement by the science community, the BER Environmental System Science (ESS) program organized the Southeast Land– Atmosphere Research Opportunities (SELARO) workshop in August 2023. The purpose was to identify gaps in scientific understanding of terrestrial processes in the Southeast (defined as states bounded by the Gulf of Mexico to the south, the Atlantic Ocean to east, the Mississippi River to the west, and extending through Tennessee and North Carolina to the north) and explore opportunities to use the AMF3-BNF deployment to coordinate and leverage research efforts across the region. Many parts of the Southeast have experienced repeated anthropogenic forcings. Farming, hunting, burning, and settlement of the region by Indigenous Peoples first shaped the distribution of plant communities, which in turn influenced European colonization patterns. Timber harvesting was common during the expansion of European settlements, and production forestry continues today. Agricultural production was extensive and then waned through the 20th century, creating a period of afforestation following agricultural abandonment. Today, many formerly agricultural landscapes are undergoing rapid urbanization and suburbanization. Overlying these patterns of anthropogenic land use are frequent disturbances from hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought, flooding, ice storms, and the occasional blizzard. An additional characteristic of the Southeast is its overall landscape complexity. Unlike the western United States, where broad expanses may share similar characteristics, Southeast topography, drainage patterns, vegetation, and development patterns vary widely across relatively small spatial scales (<1 km). This is due to the region’s underlying geology and soil development, species biodiversity patterns, and land ownership and use coupled with strong forces of erosion, weathering, and rapid plant growth in the warm, wet climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗