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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flexible nonstationary spatiotemporal modeling of high-frequency monitoring data

Many physical datasets are generated by collections of instruments that make measurements at regular time intervals. For such regular monitoring data, we extend the framework of half-spectral covariance functions to the case of nonstationarity in space and time and demonstrate that this method provides a natural and tractable way to incorporate complex behaviors into a covariance model. Further, we use this method with fully time-domain computations to obtain bona fide maximum likelihood estimators—as opposed to using Whittle-type likelihood approximations, for example—that can still be computed conveniently. Additionally, we apply this method to very high-frequency Doppler LIDAR vertical wind velocity measurements, demonstrating that the model can expressively capture the extreme nonstationarity of dynamics above and below the atmospheric boundary layer and, more importantly, the interaction of the process dynamics across it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Laboratory-based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Additionally, there is a growing concern on characterizing the non-uniformity of field exposure. Therefore, data from field surveys are critical to assess the performance of component lifetimes. Using a documented field survey protocol, 19 field surveys were conducted. The focus of this survey strategy is to investigate spatial continuity in degradation modes. By combining field survey data with real-time satellite weather data, stressor / response models have been trained. Generalized additive Models (GAM) model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. Two different GAM constructions were testing using different implementations of basis splines. The model includes variables on the environmental stressors of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The incorporation of hierarchical structure into the models allowed for material specific degradation rates, while maintaining the assumption of a global trend. The model performed well with an adjusted R2 of 0.975 for yellowness index prediction.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Sampling of Extreme-Scale Turbulence Datasets for Accurate and Efficient Spatiotemporal Model Training

With the end of Moore’s law and Dennard scaling, efficient training increasingly requires rethinking data volume. Can we train better models with significantly less data via intelligent subsampling? To explore this, we develop SICKLE, a sparse intelligent curation framework for efficient learning, featuring a novel maximum entropy (MaxEnt) sampling approach, scalable training, and energy benchmarking. We compare MaxEnt with random and phase-space sampling on large direct numerical simulation (DNS) datasets of turbulence. Evaluating SICKLE at scale on Frontier, we show that subsampling as a preprocessing step can, in many cases, improve model accuracy and substantially lower energy consumption, with observed reductions of up to 38×.

Brewer, Wes [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236393956)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2023

21-Year Modeled Spatiotemporal Low-Level Jet Climatology Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast

Offshore wind farms are influenced by a variety of meteorological phenomena, ranging in spatial and temporal extent. One of these phenomena, the low-level jet (LLJ), is defined as a local maximum in wind speed with height in the planetary boundary layer, exhibiting a "nose-like" structure usually in the lowest few hundred meters above the surface. This vertical extent of LLJs may coincide with the rotor-swept area of a wind turbine, thus having implications for potential power production and mechanical loading. Previous studies in this area based on observations have confirmed the prevalence of LLJs here, with implications on power generation, wind turbine loads, and wake recovery depending on the LLJ characteristics, such as nose height and what part of the wind turbine power curve is being impacted.

LLJ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

MATEY: multiscale adaptive transformer models for spatiotemporal physical systems

Accurate representation of the multiscale features in spatiotemporal physical systems using vision transformer architectures requires extremely long, computationally prohibitive token sequences. To address this issue, we propose two novel adaptive tokenization schemes that dynamically adjust patch sizes based on local features: one ensures convergent behavior to uniform patch refinement, while the other offers better computational efficiency. Moreover, we present a set of spatiotemporal attention schemes, where the temporal or axial spatial dimensions are decoupled, to evaluate their baseline computational and data efficiencies and to determine whether adaptive tokenization can improve this performance. We assess the performance of the proposed multiscale adaptive model, MATEY, in a sequence of experiments. Compared to a full spatiotemporal attention scheme or a scheme that decouples only the temporal dimension, we find that fully decoupled axial attention is less efficient and expressive, requiring more training time and model parameters to achieve the same accuracy. The experiments on the adaptive tokenization schemes show that, compared to a uniformly refined model, the proposed schemes achieve comparable or improved accuracy at a much lower cost in the tested two-dimensional settings. While the asymptotic analysis suggests the potential for favorable scaling, empirical validation at substantially longer sequence lengths remains to be performed in future work. Finally, we demonstrate in two fine-tuning tasks featuring different physics that models pretrained on PDEBench data outperform the ones trained from scratch, especially in the low data regime with frozen attention.

adaptive tokenization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational multiscale reinforcement learning for discovering reduced order closure models of nonlinear spatiotemporal transport systems

Abstract A central challenge in the computational modeling and simulation of a multitude of science applications is to achieve robust and accurate closures for their coarse-grained representations due to underlying highly nonlinear multiscale interactions. These closure models are common in many nonlinear spatiotemporal systems to account for losses due to reduced order representations, including many transport phenomena in fluids. Previous data-driven closure modeling efforts have mostly focused on supervised learning approaches using high fidelity simulation data. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful yet relatively uncharted method in spatiotemporally extended systems. In this study, we put forth a modular dynamic closure modeling and discovery framework to stabilize the Galerkin projection based reduced order models that may arise in many nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamical systems with quadratic nonlinearity. However, a key element in creating a robust RL agent is to introduce a feasible reward function, which can be constituted of any difference metrics between the RL model and high fidelity simulation data. First, we introduce a multi-modal RL to discover mode-dependant closure policies that utilize the high fidelity data in rewarding our RL agent. We then formulate a variational multiscale RL (VMRL) approach to discover closure models without requiring access to the high fidelity data in designing the reward function. Specifically, our chief innovation is to leverage variational multiscale formalism to quantify the difference between modal interactions in Galerkin systems. Our results in simulating the viscous Burgers equation indicate that the proposed VMRL method leads to robust and accurate closure parameterizations, and it may potentially be used to discover scale-aware closure models for complex dynamical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗