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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Statistical Algorithm for Boundary Detection in Liquid Sprays

This work presents a statistical algorithm to detect phase boundaries in liquid sprays. Experimental data were obtained in a nonevaporating acetone spray at atmospheric conditions to minimize the refractive index gradients and associated beam steering. Mie scattering and diffuse background illumination (DBI) diagnostics are implemented to demonstrate the robustness of the approach. The analysis shows that the present algorithm yields similar results for the two different diagnostics, unlike existing threshold-based methodologies providing inconsistent results. The algorithm can be used to identify partial liquid boundaries between single-phase liquid and vapor boundaries. Thus, for each case, liquid boundaries were defined in terms of liquid probability of 100% or less than 100%. Sprays from two different injectors were analyzed to demonstrate the versatility of the methodology. Finally, a parametric study was conducted to demonstrate that motion blur can affect an accurate detection of the phase boundaries, and hence, the exposure time in the experiment must be sufficiently small.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Algorithms and Statistical Models for Scientific Discovery in the Petabyte Era

The field of astronomy has arrived at a turning point in terms of size and complexity of both datasets and scientific collaboration. Commensurately, algorithms and statistical models have begun to adapt --- e.g., via the onset of artificial intelligence --- which itself presents new challenges and opportunities for growth. This white paper aims to offer guidance and ideas for how we can evolve our technical and collaborative frameworks to promote efficient algorithmic development and take advantage of opportunities for scientific discovery in the petabyte era. We discuss challenges for discovery in large and complex data sets; challenges and requirements for the next stage of development of statistical methodologies and algorithmic tool sets; how we might change our paradigms of collaboration and education; and the ethical implications of scientists' contributions to widely applicable algorithms and computational modeling. We start with six distinct recommendations that are supported by the commentary following them. This white paper is related to a larger corpus of effort that has taken place within and around the Petabytes to Science Workshops (https://petabytestoscience.github.io/).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-Situ Inference: Bringing Advanced Data Science Into Exascale Simulations

As simulations generate ever-increasing amounts of data, there are correspondingly richer opportunities for analysis and scientific discovery - discoveries that will be missed if most of the data must be discarded before it is analyzed. Because future exascale architectures will be increasingly storage-limited, it will not be possible to save the vast majority of simulation data for later analysis, requiring analysis to occur “in-situ” within the simulation. However, existing in-situ data analysis frameworks provide little or no support for one of the most sophisticated forms of data science: probabilistic statistical modeling or uncertainty quantification (UQ), and the accompanying challenge of inference - fitting those statistical models to massive simulation output. Our goal is to develop the fundamental statistical algorithms and computer science needed to perform statistical inference in-situ (in HPC simulations) to the full stream of data those simulations generate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stopping criteria for ending autonomous, single detector radiological source searches

While the localization of radiological sources has traditionally been handled with statistical algorithms, such a task can be augmented with advanced machine learning methodologies. The combination of deep and reinforcement learning has provided learning-based navigation to autonomous, single-detector, mobile systems. However, these approaches lacked the capacity to terminate a surveying/search task without outside influence of an operator or perfect knowledge of source location (defeating the purpose of such a system). Two stopping criteria are investigated in this work for a machine learning navigated system: one based upon Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) strategies commonly used in source localization, and a second providing the navigational machine learning network with a “stop search” action. A convolutional neural network was trained via reinforcement learning in a 10 m × 10 m simulated environment to navigate a randomly placed detector-agent to a randomly placed source of varied strength (stopping with perfect knowledge during training). The network agent could move in one of four directions (up, down, left, right) after taking a 1 s count measurement at the current location. During testing, the stopping criteria for this navigational algorithm was based upon a Bayesian likelihood estimation technique of source presence, updating this likelihood after each step, and terminating once the confidence of the source being in a single location exceeded 0.9. A second network was trained and tested with similar architecture as the previous but which contained a fifth action: for self-stopping. The accuracy and speed of localization with set detector and source initializations were compared over 50 trials of MLE-Bayesian approach and 1000 trials of the CNN with self-stopping. The statistical stopping condition yielded a median localization error of ~1.41 m and median localization speed of 12 steps. The machine learning stopping condition yielded a median localization error of 0 m and median localization speed of 17 steps. This work demonstrated two stopping criteria available to a machine learning guided, source localization system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of four ground-based retrievals of cloud droplet number concentration in marine stratocumulus with aircraft in situ measurements

Abstract. Cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) is crucial for understanding aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) and associated radiative effects. We present evaluations of four ground-based Nd retrievals based on comprehensive datasets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The Nd retrieval methods use ARM ENA observatory ground-based remote sensing observations from a micropulse lidar, Raman lidar, cloud radar, and the ARM NDROP (Droplet Number Concentration) value-added product (VAP), all of which also retrieve cloud effective radius (re). The retrievals are compared against aircraft measurements from the fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) and the cloud and aerosol spectrometer (CAS) obtained from low-level marine boundary layer clouds on 12 flight days during summer and winter seasons. Additionally, the in situ measurements are used to validate the assumptions and characterizations used in the retrieval algorithms. Statistical comparisons of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the Nd and cloud re retrievals with aircraft measurements demonstrate that these retrievals align well with in situ measurements for overcast clouds, but they may substantially differ for broken clouds or clouds with low liquid water path (LWP). The retrievals are applied to 4 years of ground-based remote sensing measurements of overcast marine boundary layer clouds at the ARM ENA observatory to find that Nd (re) values exhibit seasonal variations, with higher (lower) values during the summer season and lower (higher) values during the winter season. The ensemble of various retrievals using different measurements and retrieval algorithms such as those in this paper can help to quantify Nd retrieval uncertainties and identify reliable Nd retrieval scenarios. Of the retrieval methods, we recommend using the micropulse lidar-based method. This method has good agreement with in situ measurements, less sensitivity to issues arising from precipitation and low cloud LWP and/or optical depth, and broad applicability by functioning for both daytime and nighttime conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Four Ground-based Retrievals of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration in Marine Stratocumulus with Aircraft In Situ Measurements

Cloud droplet number concentration (N d ) is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) and associated radiative effects. We present evaluations of four ground-based N d retrievals based on comprehensive datasets from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. The N d retrieval methods use ARM ENA observatory ground-based remote sensing observations from a Micropulse lidar, Raman lidar, cloud radar, and the ARM NDROP Value-added Product (VAP), all of which also retrieve cloud effective radius (r e ). The retrievals are compared against aircraft measurements from the Fast-Cloud Droplet Probe (FCDP) and the Cloud and Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS) obtained from low-level marine boundary layer clouds on 12 flight days during summer and winter seasons. Additionally, the in situ measurements are used to validate the assumptions and characterizations used in the retrieval algorithms. Statistical comparisons of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the N d and cloud r e retrievals with aircraft measurements demonstrate that these retrievals align well with in situ measurements for overcast clouds, but they may substantially differ for broken clouds or clouds with low liquid water path (LWP). The retrievals are applied to four years of ground-based remote sensing measurements of overcast marine boundary layer clouds at the ARM ENA observatory to find that N d (r e ) values exhibit seasonal variations, with higher (lower) values during the summer season and lower (higher) values during the winter season. The ensemble of various retrievals using different measurements and retrieval algorithms such as those in this paper can help to quantify N d retrieval uncertainties and identify reliable N d retrieval scenarios. Of the retrieval methods, we recommend using the using the Micropulse lidar-based method given its good agreement with in situ measurements, it has less sensitivity to issues arising from precipitation and low cloud LWP/optical depth, and it has broad applicability by functioning for both day and nighttime conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Pilot Point Optimization of Mining Boundaries for Lateritic Metal Deposits: Finding the Trade-off Between Dilution and Ore Loss

Geological contacts in lateritic metal deposits (footwall topographies) often delineate the orebody boundaries. Spatial variations seen in such contacts are frequently higher than those for the metal grades of the deposit. Therefore, borehole spacing chosen based on the grade variations cannot adequately capture the geological contact variability. Consequently, models created using such boreholes cause high volumetric uncertainties in the actual and targeted ore extraction volumes, which, in turn, lead to high unplanned dilution and ore losses. In this paper, a method to design optimum ore/mining boundaries for lateritic metal deposits is presented. The proposed approach minimizes the dilution/ore losses and comprises two main steps. First, the uncertainty on the orebody boundary is represented using a set of stochastic realizations generated with a multiple-point statistics algorithm. Then, the optimal orebody boundary is determined using an optimization technique inspired by a model calibration method called Pilot Points. The pilot points represent synthetic elevation values, and they are used to construct smooth mining boundaries using the multilevel B-spline technique. The performance of a generated surface is evaluated using the expected sum of losses in each of the stochastic realizations. The simulated annealing algorithm is used to iteratively determine the pilot point values which minimize the expected losses. The results show a significant reduction in the dilution volume as compared to those obtained from the actual mining operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Imaging in Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine

Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET) are modern methods for visualization in diagnostic nuclear medicine. SPECT is known as a workhorse in cardiology, and PET is the gold standard in oncology. The development of nuclear medicine is provided by cooperation of physicists, mathematicians, biologists, medical doctors, and radio-chemists. In spite of extensive clinical applications, several problems may lead to false diagnoses. In particular, the correction of attenuation of gamma radiation in human organs must be taken into account. For interpretation and evaluation of such an effect on the clinical results, we perform physico-mathematical simulation of the SPECT diagnostics in cardiology in the absence and presence of the correction of attenuation. A brief review of the state-of-the art is presented. The simulation employs the first Russian anthropomorphic mathematical phantom that describes the distribution of radio-pharmacological agent ({sup 99m }Tc-methoxyisobutylisonitrile) in chest organs of a typical male patient. A model for calculation of raw images is developed with allowance for attenuation of radiation in biological tissues and the effect of collimator and detector. The results of the proposed models and calculated images are compared with clinical images obtained at the Meshalkin Institute of Circulation Pathology (Novosibirsk) and Myasnikov Institute of Clinical Cardiology (Moscow). Statistical algorithms are developed for the solution of the inverse problem of image reconstruction based on the entropy principle. The clinical and physico-mathematical approaches are compared in the evaluation of the effect of correction on the quality of reconstructed images of the left ventricle of myocardium.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

SGEMP Algorithm Development and Demonstration for ICEPIC

Algorithms designed to facilitate calculation of gas-modified System-Generated Electromagnetic Pulse (SGEMP) phenomena have been developed for use in ICEPIC. Improvements and extensions of these and related models are considered for helping them be more widely applicable for SGEMP modeling. Confluent Sciences has developed a Buneman-Villasenor unit test tool for assessing particle merge algorithms and has applied that to several candidate algorithms. Statistical analysis of Maxwellian and near-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions has been used to understand limits and tradeoffs of particle merging. Collisional phenomena and plasma models that relieve the burden of a fully kinetic approach have also been developed and assessed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output

This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flexible and Adaptive Malware Identification Using Techniques from Biology

The holy grail in cyber analytics is to find new ways to understand the information we already have access to. One way to do that is to characterize the data into reasonable sizes and then leverage any known information to generate new insights. Biologists have been using a similar process for decades. This paper introduces the MLSTONES tool set that was developed by leveraging biology and bioinformatics, high performance computing, and statistical algorithms applied to cyber data and specifically to malware. Furthermore, the paper discusses the tool suite, its applications, and how it compares or can work with other related tools.

Peterson, Elena S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nationwide Energy Saving Potential Evaluation for Office Buildings with Occupant-Based Building Controls

The heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system is a major contributor to building energy consumption. This paper aims to quantify the nationwide energy savings potential of implementing the occupancy-based control (OBC) for the HVAC system in typical medium-sized office buildings using a whole building simulation program (i.e., EnergyPlus). First, the medium-sized office from the DOE Commercial Prototype Building Models was modified to have detailed layout and space functions. Then, a statistic-algorithm-based tool was used to generate the dynamic occupancy schedules for various rooms. Next, both a baseline case and two OBC cases were created for the comparison based on the updated ASHRAE Standard 90.1 and ASHRAE Guideline 36. The HVAC operation in the baseline case follows a static occupancy schedule and fixed setpoint schedules for both room air temperatures and minimal system outside air flowrates, while the proposed OBC cases use the room temperature reset, system minimum outdoor airflow reset, and zone minimal supply airflow rate reset. These cases were extended to five climate zones in the United States to further quantify the energy savings potential associated with the OBC on a nationwide scale. The preliminary result of this case study shows that there could be significant energy savings potential from the proposed OBC strategies in medium-sized office buildings in the United States.

Pang, Zhihong↗
DOE OSTI2019

Near-Optimal and Practical Algorithms for Graph Scan Statistics with Connectivity Constraints

One fundamental task in network analysis is detecting “hotspots” or “anomalies” in the network; that is, detecting subgraphs where there is significantly more activity than one would expect given historical data or some baseline process. Scan statistics is one popular approach used for anomalous subgraph detection. This methodology involves maximizing a score function over all connected subgraphs, which is a challenging computational problem. A number of heuristics have been proposed for these problems, but they do not provide any quality guarantees. Here, we propose a framework for designing algorithms for optimizing a large class of scan statistics for networks, subject to connectivity constraints. Our algorithms run in time that scales linearly on the size of the graph and depends on a parameter we call the “effective solution size,” while providing rigorous approximation guarantees. In contrast, most prior methods have super-linear running times in terms of graph size. Extensive empirical evidence demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed algorithms in comparison with state-of-the-art methods. Our approach improves on the performance relative to all prior methods, giving up to over 25% increase in the score. Further, our algorithms scale to networks with up to a million nodes, which is 1–2 orders of magnitude larger than all prior applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hierarchical calibration and validation framework of bench-scale computational fluid dynamics simulations for solvent-based carbon capture. Part 2: Chemical absorption across a wetted wall column: Original Research Article: Hierarchical calibration and validation framework of bench-scale computational fluid dynamics simulations

Part 1 of this paper presents a numerical model for non-reactive physical mass transfer across a wetted wall column (WWC). In Part 2, we improved the existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to simulate chemical absorption occurring in a WWC as a bench-scale study of solvent-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture. In this study, to generate data for WWC model validation, CO 2 mass transfer across a monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent was first measured on a WWC experimental apparatus. The numerical model developed in this work can account for both chemical absorption and desorption of CO 2 in MEA. In addition, the overall mass transfer coefficient predicted using traditional/empirical correlations is conducted and compared with CFD prediction results for both steady and wavy falling films. A Bayesian statistical calibration algorithm is adopted to calibrate the reaction rate constants in chemical absorption/desorption of CO 2 across a falling film of MEA. The posterior distributions of the two transport properties, i.e., Henry's constant and gas diffusivity in the non-reacting nitrous oxide (N 2 O)/MEA system obtained from Part 1 of this study, serves as priors for the calibration of CO 2 reaction rate constants after using the N 2 O/CO 2 analogy method. Finally, the calibrated model can be used to predict the CO 2 mass transfer in a WWC for a wider range of operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗