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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of the calculations of final r -process abundance patterns with a neural network

This work explores the construction of a fast emulator for the calculation of the final pattern of nucleosynthesis in the rapid neutron capture process (the r-process). An emulator is built using a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN). We train the ANN with nuclear data and relative abundance patterns. We take as input the β-decay half-lives and the one-neutron separation energy of the nuclei in the rare-earth region. The output is the final isotopic abundance pattern. In this work, we focus on the nuclear data and abundance patterns in the rare-earth region to reduce the dimension of the input and output space. We show that the ANN can capture the effect of the changes in the nuclear physics inputs on the final r-process abundance pattern in the adopted astrophysical conditions. We employ the deep ensemble method to quantify the prediction uncertainty of the neural network emulator. The emulator achieves a speed-up by a factor of about 20 000 in obtaining a final abundance pattern in the rare-earth region. The emulator may be utilized in statistical analyses such as uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and sensitivity analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear inversion

Powerful methods are now available for solving linear parametric inverse problems. However, many inverse problems which arise in geohysics are nonlinear. Fortunately, it is possible to treat most of these with the air of linear perturbation theory and liner inversion. But a convenient method is needed for assessing the importance of nonlinearity in these quasi-linear problems. The present paper provides such a method. Matsu'ura and Jackson (1984) have presented a simple algorithm for evaluating the asymptotic covariance matrix fo estimation errors. In the present investigation, aspects of linear inversion are discussed, taking into account linear parametric inverse problems, nonuniqueness, prior information, confidence limits, conditional and marginal statistics, the relative importance of the prior and observational data, and standardized variables. Attention is also given to nonlinear inversion, and the application of the considered approaches to a number of examples.

Jackson, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Round-off errors in cutting plane algorithms based on the revised simplex procedure

This report statistically analyzes computational round-off errors associated with the cutting plane approach to solving linear integer programming problems. Cutting plane methods require that the inverse of a sequence of matrices be computed. The problem basically reduces to one of minimizing round-off errors in the sequence of inverses. Two procedures for minimizing this problem are presented, and their influence on error accumulation is statistically analyzed. One procedure employs a very small tolerance factor to round computed values to zero. The other procedure is a numerical analysis technique for reinverting or improving the approximate inverse of a matrix. The results indicated that round-off accumulation can be effectively minimized by employing a tolerance factor which reflects the number of significant digits carried for each calculation and by applying the reinversion procedure once to each computed inverse. If 18 significant digits plus an exponent are carried for each variable during computations, then a tolerance value of 0.1 x 10 to the minus 12th power is reasonable.

Moore, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Statistical principles of inversion theory

Statistical methods are used to deal with the inverse problem of radiative transfer. All the available information about an unknown profile can be expressed in the form of values of functions of that profile and error estimates of these values. Estimation theory shows how these values are combined to give an estimate of the unknown profile and its error covariance. Many inversion methods are expressed in this form, although the error estimate is not usually carried out. Practical applications are described, both for inversion of individual profiles, and the global analysis of satellite data.

Rodgers, C. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical modelling and Bayesian inversion for a Compton imaging system: application to radioactive source localization

Abstract This paper presents a statistical forward model for a Compton imaging system, called Compton imager. This system, under development at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign, is a variant of Compton cameras with a single type of sensors which can simultaneously act as scatterers and absorbers. This imager is convenient for imaging situations requiring a wide field of view. The proposed statistical forward model is then used to solve the inverse problem of estimating the location and energy of point-like sources from observed data. This inverse problem is formulated and solved in a Bayesian framework by using a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm for the estimation of the location, and an expectation-maximization algorithm for the estimation of the energy. This approach leads to more accurate estimation when compared with the deterministic standard back-projection approach, with the additional benefit of uncertainty quantification in the low photon imaging setting.

Tarpau, Cécilia (ORCID:0000000286539490)↗
NASA NTRS1977

Inversion of passive microwave remote sensing data from satellites

Global passive microwave observations from earth-orbiting satellites have mapped humidity and liquid water over ocean, temperature profiles, ice and snow, and other geophysical parameters. In most applications, the inversion problem is adequately approximated as linear with jointly Gaussian statistics, and, thus, a linear retrieval performs well. In some cases, the problem is typically factored into a decision process followed by appropriate linear or quasilinear processes. Certain problems, however, require more powerful nonlinear or nonstationary procedures, such as Kalman filtering.

Staelin, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Steady induction effects in geomagnetism. Part 1B: Geomagnetic estimation of steady surficial core motions: A non-linear inverse problem

The problem of estimating a steady fluid velocity field near the top of Earth's core which induces the secular variation (SV) indicated by models of the observed geomagnetic field is examined in the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core (SFI/VFFC) approximation. This inverse problem is non-linear because solutions of the forward problem are deterministically chaotic. The SFM/FFC approximation is inexact, and neither the models nor the observations they represent are either complete or perfect. A method is developed for solving the non-linear inverse motional induction problem posed by the hypothesis of (piecewise, statistically) steady core surface flow and the supposition of a complete initial geomagnetic condition. The method features iterative solution of the weighted, linearized least-squares problem and admits optional biases favoring surficially geostrophic flow and/or spatially simple flow. Two types of weights are advanced radial field weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the radial field component near Earth's surface implied by the models, and generalized weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the scalar potential specified by the models.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The inverse gravimetric problem in gravity modelling

One of the main purposes of geodesy is to determine the gravity field of the Earth in the space outside its physical surface. This purpose can be pursued without any particular knowledge of the internal density even if the exact shape of the physical surface of the Earth is not known, though this seems to entangle the two domains, as it was in the old Stoke's theory before the appearance of Molodensky's approach. Nevertheless, even when large, dense and homogeneous data sets are available, it was always recognized that subtracting from the gravity field the effect of the outer layer of the masses (topographic effect) yields a much smoother field. This is obviously more important when a sparse data set is bad so that any smoothing of the gravity field helps in interpolating between the data without raising the modeling error, this approach is generally followed because it has become very cheap in terms of computing time since the appearance of spectral techniques. The mathematical description of the Inverse Gravimetric Problem (IGP) is dominated mainly by two principles, which in loose terms can be formulated as follows: the knowledge of the external gravity field determines mainly the lateral variations of the density; and the deeper the density anomaly giving rise to a gravity anomaly, the more improperly posed is the problem of recovering the former from the latter. The statistical relation between rho and n (and its inverse) is also investigated in its general form, proving that degree cross-covariances have to be introduced to describe the behavior of rho. The problem of the simultaneous estimate of a spherical anomalous potential and of the external, topographic masses is addressed criticizing the choice of the mixed collection approach.

Sanso, F.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The Backup-Gilbert method and its application to the electrical conductivity problem

The theory of Backus and Gilbert gives a technique for solving the general linear inverse problem. Observational error and lack of data are shown to reduce the reliability of the solution in different ways: the former introduces statistical uncertainties in the model, while the latter smooths out the detail. Precision can be improved by sacrificing resolving power, and vice versa, so that some compromise may be made between the two in choosing the best model. Nonlinear inverse problems can be brought into the domain of the theory by linearizing about a typical solution. The inverse problem of electrical conductivity in the mantle is used to illustrate the Backus-Gilbert technique; an example of the tradeoff diagram is given.

Parker, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

ForceFinder

SAND2025-11750O ForceFinder extends the Structural Dynamics Python Libraries (SDynPy) with comprehensive tools for inverse source estimation (ISE) tasks via frequency response function (FRF) matrix inversion. The software is designed for transfer path analysis and multiple-input/multiple-output (MIMO) vibration control problems. It allows users to estimate sources through various algorithms, from the basic Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse to statistical learning methods such as Tikhonov regularization via an L-curve and elastic net regularization via an information criterion. ForceFinder uses an object-oriented framework, where all components of the ISE problem—such as FRFs, responses, and transformations—are stored in a "SourcePathReceiver" object. This software can be applied to any noise and vibration problem. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Carter, Steven [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Liv↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Prediction Properties of Inverse and Reverse Regression for the Simple Linear Calibration Problem

The calibration of measurement systems is a fundamental but under-studied problem within industrial statistics. The origins of this problem go back to basic chemical analysis based on NIST standards. In today's world these issues extend to mechanical, electrical, and materials engineering. Often, these new scenarios do not provide "gold standards" such as the standard weights provided by NIST. This paper considers the classic "forward regression followed by inverse regression" approach. In this approach the initial experiment treats the "standards" as the regressor and the observed values as the response to calibrate the instrument. The analyst then must invert the resulting regression model in order to use the instrument to make actual measurements in practice. This paper compares this classical approach to "reverse regression," which treats the standards as the response and the observed measurements as the regressor in the calibration experiment. Such an approach is intuitively appealing because it avoids the need for the inverse regression. However, it also violates some of the basic regression assumptions.

Parker, Peter A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty [Brochure]

The four priority research directions outlined in this brochure represent a cohesive vision for advancing the science of inverse problems for complex systems under uncertainty. Together, they address the critical challenges of: discovering, exploiting, and preserving physical and problem structure; overcoming model limitations; integrating disparate, multimodal, and/or dynamic data; and tailoring the solution of inverse problems to downstream tasks. While each PRD focuses on a distinct aspect of inverse-problem research, their interconnected nature highlights the importance of a holistic approach that leverages progress across all areas to achieve transformative solutions. This agenda calls for research across mathematics, statistics, and computer science disciplines, which are guided and complemented by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and experimental facilities, to unlock new capabilities, maximize scientific impact, and meet the growing demands of inverse problems that arise across applications that are critical to DOE's mission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cormack Research Project: Glasgow University

The aim of this project was to investigate and improve upon existing methods of analysing data from COMITEL on the Gamma Ray Observatory for neutrons emitted during solar flares. In particular, a strategy for placing confidence intervals on neutron energy distributions, due to uncertainties on the response matrix has been developed. We have also been able to demonstrate the superior performance of one of a range of possible statistical regularization strategies. A method of generating likely models of neutron energy distributions has also been developed as a tool to this end. The project involved solving an inverse problem with noise being added to the data in various ways. To achieve this pre-existing C code was used to run Fortran subroutines which performed statistical regularization on the data.

Skinner, Susan↗