Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Statistical simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mars 2020 Perseverance Entry Descent and Landing Simulation Statistical Analysis and Operations

On February 18, 2021, the Perseverance rover and Ingenuity helicopter demonstra- tion landed at Jezero Crater. The Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) architecture, largely the same used to land Curiosity at Gale Crater on August 6, 2012, required high-fidelity flight dynamics simulation with two independent tools to verify per- formance. The process for creating the EDL simulation using the Dynamics Sim- ulator for Entry, Descent and Surface landing (DSENDS) tool will be discussed, along with its use for for independent verification of the EDL statistical analy- sis results and reference trajectory simulation. Analysis and usage details both in development and cruise, along with post-landing assessment of the prediction performance of the simulation, will also be discussed.

"O'Farrell, Clara"↗
NASA NTRS1976

Statistical simulations of clusters of galaxies

By comparing observed and simulated rich clusters of galaxies, it is shown that the observed clusters actually possess physical cores. The accuracy with which core radii can be determined is found. It is also shown that the observations of density profiles of galaxies in the clusters give no significant evidence for a dynamical reason as the cause of the anomalously close resemblance found previously between such density profiles and the isothermal gas distribution.

Avni, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observations and statistical simulations of a proposed solar cycle/QBO/weather relationship

The 10.7-cm solar flux is observed to be highly correlated with North Pole stratospheric temperatures when partitioned according to the phase of the equatorial stratospheric winds (the quasi-biennial oscillation, or QBO). Calculations show that temperatures over most of the Northern Hemisphere are highly correlated or anticorrelated with North Pole temperatures. The observed spatial pattern of solar-cycle correlations at high latitudes is shown to be not unique to the solar cycle.

Baldwin, Mark P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

Matthews, William T.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Numerical Simulation and Statistical Modeling of High Intensity Radiated Fields Experiment Data

Tests are conducted on a quad-redundant fault tolerant flight control computer to establish upset characteristics of an avionics system in an electromagnetic field. A numerical simulation and statistical model are described in this work to analyze the open loop experiment data collected in the reverberation chamber at NASA LaRC as a part of an effort to examine the effects of electromagnetic interference on fly-by-wire aircraft control systems. By comparing thousands of simulation and model outputs, the models that best describe the data are first identified and then a systematic statistical analysis is performed on the data. All of these efforts are combined which culminate in an extrapolation of values that are in turn used to support previous efforts used in evaluating the data.

Smith, Laura J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Hierarchical Statistical 3D ' Atomistic' Simulation of Decanano MOSFETs: Drift-Diffusion, Hydrodynamic and Quantum Mechanical Approaches

When MOSFETs are scaled to deep submicron dimensions the discreteness and randomness of the dopant charges in the channel region introduces significant fluctuations in the device characteristics. This effect, predicted 20 year ago, has been confirmed experimentally and in simulation studies. The impact of the fluctuations on the functionality, yield, and reliability of the corresponding systems shifts the paradigm of the numerical device simulation. It becomes insufficient to simulate only one device representing one macroscopical design in a continuous charge approximation. An ensemble of macroscopically identical but microscopically different devices has to be characterized by simulation of statistically significant samples. The aims of the numerical simulations shift from predicting the characteristics of a single device with continuous doping towards estimating the mean values and the standard deviations of basic design parameters such as threshold voltage, subthreshold slope, transconductance, drive current, etc. for the whole ensemble of 'atomistically' different devices in the system. It has to be pointed out that even the mean values obtained from 'atomistic' simulations are not identical to the values obtained from continuous doping simulations. In this paper we present a hierarchical approach to the 'atomistic' simulation of aggressively scaled decanano MOSFETs. A full scale 3D drift-diffusion'atomostic' simulation approach is first described and used for verification of the more economical, but also more restricted, options. To reduce the processor time and memory requirements at high drain voltage we have developed a self-consistent option based on a thin slab solution of the current continuity equation only in the channel region. This is coupled to the Poisson's equation solution in the whole simulation domain in the Gummel iteration cycles. The accuracy of this approach is investigated in comparison with the full self-consistent solution. At low drain voltage only single solution of the nonlinear Poisson equation is sufficient to extract the current with satisfactory accuracy. A pilot version of a hydrodynamic 'atomistic' simulator has been developed in order to study the effect of the nonequilibrium, non local transport in decanano MOSFETs on the random dopant induced current fluctuations. For the first time we have also applied the density gradient approach in 3D to investigate the effect of the quantum confinement on the threshold voltage fluctuations. The developed 'atomistic' simulation techniques have been applied to study various fluctuation resistant MOSFET architectures including epitaxial and delta doped devices.

Asenov, Asen↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical modeling of software reliability

This working paper discusses the statistical simulation part of a controlled software development experiment being conducted under the direction of the System Validation Methods Branch, Information Systems Division, NASA Langley Research Center. The experiment uses guidance and control software (GCS) aboard a fictitious planetary landing spacecraft: real-time control software operating on a transient mission. Software execution is simulated to study the statistical aspects of reliability and other failure characteristics of the software during development, testing, and random usage. Quantification of software reliability is a major goal. Various reliability concepts are discussed. Experiments are described for performing simulations and collecting appropriate simulated software performance and failure data. This data is then used to make statistical inferences about the quality of the software development and verification processes as well as inferences about the reliability of software versions and reliability growth under random testing and debugging.

Miller, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations

A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.

Carati, Daniele↗
NASA NTRS1976

Wheat signature modeling and analysis for improved training statistics: Supplement. Simulated LANDSAT wheat radiances and radiance components

Simulated scanner system data values generated in support of LACIE (Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment) research and development efforts are presented. Synthetic inband (LANDSAT) wheat radiances and radiance components were computed and are presented for various wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions and scanner view geometries. Values include: (1) inband bidirectional reflectances for seven stages of wheat crop growth; (2) inband atmospheric features; and (3) inband radiances corresponding to the various combinations of wheat canopy and atmospheric conditions. Analyses of these data values are presented in the main report.

Malila, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Towards Validation of an Adaptive Flight Control Simulation Using Statistical Emulation

Traditional validation of flight control systems is based primarily upon empirical testing. Empirical testing is sufficient for simple systems in which a.) the behavior is approximately linear and b.) humans are in-the-loop and responsible for off-nominal flight regimes. A different possible concept of operation is to use adaptive flight control systems with online learning neural networks (OLNNs) in combination with a human pilot for off-nominal flight behavior (such as when a plane has been damaged). Validating these systems is difficult because the controller is changing during the flight in a nonlinear way, and because the pilot and the control system have the potential to co-adapt in adverse ways traditional empirical methods are unlikely to provide any guarantees in this case. Additionally, the time it takes to find unsafe regions within the flight envelope using empirical testing means that the time between adaptive controller design iterations is large. This paper describes a new concept for validating adaptive control systems using methods based on Bayesian statistics. This validation framework allows the analyst to build nonlinear models with modal behavior, and to have an uncertainty estimate for the difference between the behaviors of the model and system under test.

He, Yuning↗
NASA NTRS2000

Statistical 3D 'Atomistic' Simulation of Decanano MOSFETs

A 3D statistical 'atomistic' simulation technique has been developed to study the effect of the random dopant induced parameter fluctuations in aggressively scaled MOSFETs. Efficient implementation of the 'atomistic' simulation approach has been used to investigate the threshold voltage standard deviation and lowering in the case of uniformly doped MOSFETs, and in fluctuation-resistant architectures utilising epitaxial-layers and delta-doping. The effect of the random doping in the polysilicon gate on the threshold voltage fluctuations has also been thoroughly investigated. The influence of a single-charge trapping on the channel conductivity in decanano MOSFETs is studied in the 'atomistic' framework as well. Quantum effects are taken into consideration in our 'atomistic' simulations using the density gradient formalism.

Asenov, Asen↗
NASA NTRS1971

Techniques for generation of control and guidance signals derived from optical fields, part 2

The development is reported of a high resolution technique for the detection and identification of landmarks from spacecraft optical fields. By making use of nonlinear regression analysis, a method is presented whereby a sequence of synthetic images produced by a digital computer can be automatically adjusted to provide a least squares approximation to a real image. The convergence of the method is demonstrated by means of a computer simulation for both elliptical and rectangular patterns. Statistical simulation studies with elliptical and rectangular patterns show that the computational techniques developed are able to at least match human pattern recognition capabilities, even in the presence of large amounts of noise. Unlike most pattern recognition techniques, this ability is unaffected by arbitrary pattern rotation, translation, and scale change. Further development of the basic approach may eventually allow a spacecraft or robot vehicle to be provided with an ability to very accurately determine its spatial relationship to arbitrary known objects within its optical field of view.

Hemami, H.↗