The concept of invariant set for stochastic dynamical systems, and applications to stochastic stability
Stochastic Liapunov functions and invariant set concept
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Stochastic Liapunov functions and invariant set concept
Liapunov theory of stochastic stability, discussing use to obtain information about random trajectories
Analysis of stochastic dynamical systems that involve multiplicative (bilinear) noise processes is considered. After defining the systems of interest, the evolution of the moments of such systems, the question of stochastic stability, and estimation for bilinear stochastic systems are discussed. Both exact and approximate methods of analysis are introduced, and, in particular, the uses of Lie-theoretic concepts and harmonic analysis are discussed.
Analysis of stochastic dynamical systems that involve multiplicative (bilinear) noise processes. After defining the systems of interest, consideration is given to the evolution of the moments of such systems, the question of stochastic stability, and estimation for bilinear stochastic systems. Both exact and approximate methods of analysis are introduced, and, in particular, the uses of Lie-theoretic concepts and harmonic analysis are discussed.
Optimization of stochastic dynamic system with noisy output
Systems analysis logic applied to mathematical modeling of dynamic nonlinear stochastic processes
The problem of optimal control of linear discrete-time stochastic dynamical system with unknown and, possibly, stochastically varying parameters is considered on the basis of noisy measurements. It is desired to minimize the expected value of a quadratic cost functional. Since the simultaneous estimation of the state and plant parameters is a nonlinear filtering problem, the extended Kalman filter algorithm is used. Several qualitative and asymptotic properties of the open loop feedback optimal control and the enforced separation scheme are discussed. Simulation results via Monte Carlo method show that, in terms of the performance measure, for stable systems the open loop feedback optimal control system is slightly better than the enforced separation scheme, while for unstable systems the latter scheme is far better.
Indirect method considers effect of nonlinearity and obtains approximate probability densities of certain characteristics, from these densities various statistical properties are calculated. Direct method determines response moments directly. Neither method is restricted by system motion with regard to whether or not it is stationary.
A number of methods for detecting abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems are surveyed. The class of linear systems is concentrated on but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.
A number of methods for the detection of abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems were surveyed. The class of linear systems were emphasized, but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.
Nonlinear perturbation theory for optimal estimation and control of time-discrete, stochastic, dynamic systems when measurement data is noisy
The control of stochastic dynamic systems is studied with particular emphasis on those which influence the quality or nature of the measurements which are made to effect control. Four main areas are discussed: (1) the meaning of stochastic optimality and the means by which dynamic programming may be applied to solve a combined control/measurement problem; (2) a technique by which it is possible to apply deterministic methods, specifically the minimum principle, to the study of stochastic problems; (3) the methods described are applied to linear systems with Gaussian disturbances to study the structure of the resulting control system; and (4) several applications are considered.
Kalman filtering is considered with reference to linear stochastic dynamic systems without complete observability. It is shown that the canonical decomposition theorem can be extended to the stochastic case and the matrix Riccati equation of the Kalman filter is order-reducible if some states are not observable. The inclusion of unobservable states in Kalman filtering makes the unobservable states 'asymptotically' observable in the filter if these unobservable states are dynamically connected to observable states and asymptotically stable. The reduced-order Kalman filter saves computation time when compared to the conventional Kalman filter.
This paper presents the formulation of a class of optimization problems dealing with selecting, at each instant of time, one measurement provided by one out of many sensors. Each measurement has an associated measurement cost. The basic problem is then to select an optimal measurement policy, during a specified observation time interval, so that a weighted combination of prediction accuracy and accumulated observation cost is optimized. The current analysis is limited to the class of linear stochastic dynamic systems and measurement subsystems. The problem of selecting the optimal measurement strategy can be transformed into a deterministic optimal control problem. It is shown that the optimal measurement policy and the associated matched Kalman-type filter can be precomputed.
Filtering and optimal control problems for discrete stochastic dynamical systems, describing various feedback controls and midcourse guidance optimization
The estimation theory of stochastic-dynamic systems is described and used in a numerical study of optimal interpolation. The general form of data assimilation methods is reviewed. The Kalman-Bucy, KB filter, and optimal interpolation (OI) filters are examined for effectiveness in performance as gain matrices using a one-dimensional form of the shallow-water equations. Control runs in the numerical analyses were performed for a ten-day forecast in concert with the OI method. The effects of optimality, initialization, and assimilation were studied. It was found that correct initialization is necessary in order to localize errors, especially near boundary points. Also, the use of small forecast error growth rates over data-sparse areas was determined to offset inaccurate modeling of correlation functions near boundaries.
An algorithm is presented for identifying a state-space model of linear stochastic systems operating under known feedback controller. In this algorithm, only the reference input and output of closed-loop data are required. No feedback signal needs to be recorded. The overall closed-loop system dynamics is first identified. Then a recursive formulation is derived to compute the open-loop plant dynamics from the identified closed-loop system dynamics and known feedback controller dynamics. The controller can be a dynamic or constant-gain full-state feedback controller. Numerical simulations and test data of a highly unstable large-gap magnetic suspension system are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of this indirect identification method.