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Results for “Stochastic dynamical systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic evolution of stochastic dynamical systems: A meso-scale perspective

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features are used to quantify and propagate uncertainties associated with the initial conditions, external excitations, etc. From a probabilistic modeling standing point, two broad classes of methods exist, i.e. macro-scale methods and micro-scale methods. Classically, macro-scale methods such as statistical moments-based strategies are usually too coarse to capture the multi-mode shape or tails of a non-Gaussian distribution. Micro-scale methods such as random samples-based approaches, on the other hand, become computationally very challenging in dealing with high-dimensional stochastic systems. In view of these potential limitations, a meso-scale scheme is proposed here that utilizes a meso-scale statistical structure to describe the dynamical evolution from a probabilistic perspective. The significance of this statistical structure is twofold. First, it can be tailored to any arbitrary random space. Second, it not only maintains the probability evolution around sample trajectories but also requires fewer meso-scale components than the micro-scale samples. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed meso-scale scheme, a set of examples of increasing complexity are provided. Connections to the benchmark stochastic models as conservative and Markov models along with practical implementation guidelines are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems

For decades, uncertainty quantification techniques based on the spectral approach have been demonstrated to be computationally more efficient than the Monte Carlo method for a wide variety of problems, particularly when the dimensionality of the probability space is relatively low. The time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) is one such technique that uses an evolving orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space in time. Here in this paper, we present a new numerical method that uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of the stochastic part of the solution space in time. The computational cost of this proposed flow-driven stochastic chaos (FSC) method is an order of magnitude lower than TD-gPC for comparable solution accuracy. This gain in computational cost is realized because, unlike most existing methods, the number of basis vectors required to track the stochastic part of the solution space does not depend upon the dimensionality of the probability space. Four representative numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems in the context of stochastic dynamics of structures.

FSC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for simulating long-time dynamics of arbitrary-order non-linear stochastic dynamical systems

Uncertainty quantification techniques such as the time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) use an adaptive orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space (aka random function space) in time. However, because the random function space is constructed using tensor products, TD-gPC-based methods are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we introduce a new numerical method called the flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) which overcomes this curse of dimensionality at the random-function-space level. The proposed method is not only computationally more efficient than existing TD-gPC-based methods but is also far more accurate. The FSC method uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of a finite-dimensional random function space efficiently in time. To transfer the probability information from one random function space to another, two approaches are developed and studied herein. In the first approach, the probability information is transferred in the mean-square sense, whereas in the second approach the transfer is done exactly using a new theorem that was developed for this purpose. The FSC method can quantify uncertainties with high fidelity, especially for the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems governed by ODEs of arbitrary order. Six representative numerical examples, including a nonlinear problem (the Van-der-Pol oscillator), are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method and corroborate the claims of its superior numerical properties. Finally, a parametric, high-dimensional stochastic problem is used to demonstrate that when the FSC method is used in conjunction with Monte Carlo integration, the curse of dimensionality can be overcome altogether.

(nonlinear) stochastic dynamical systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observability Analysis of a Power System Stochastic Dynamic Model Using a Derivative-Free Approach

Serving as a prerequisite to power system dynamic state estimation, the observability analysis of a power system dynamic model has recently attracted the attention of many power engineers. However, because this model is typically nonlinear and large-scale, the analysis of its observability is a challenge to the traditional derivative-based methods. Indeed, the linear-approximation-based approach may provide unreliable results while the nonlinear-technique-based approach inevitably faces extremely complicated derivations. Furthermore, because power systems are intrinsically stochastic, the traditional deterministic approaches may lead to inaccurate observability analyses. In this work, facing these challenges, we propose a novel polynomial-chaos-based derivative-free observability analysis approach that not only is free of any linear approximations, but also accounts for the stochasticity of the dynamic model while bringing a low implementation complexity. Furthermore, this approach enables us to quantify the degree of observability of a stochastic model, what conventional deterministic methods cannot do. The excellent performance of the proposed method has been demonstrated by performing extensive simulations using a synchronous generator model with IEEE-DC1A exciter and the TGOV1 turbine governor.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pseudoreversible Normalizing Flow for Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Various Initial Distributions

Here, we present a pseudoreversible normalizing flow method for efficiently generating samples of the state of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with various initial distributions. The primary objective is to construct an accurate and efficient sampler that can be used as a surrogate model for computationally expensive numerical integration of SDEs, such as those employed in particle simulation. After training, the normalizing flow model can directly generate samples of the SDE’s final state without simulating trajectories. The existing normalizing flow model for SDEs depends on the initial distribution, meaning the model needs to be retrained when the initial distribution changes. The main novelty of our normalizing flow model is that it can learn the conditional distribution of the state, i.e., the distribution of the final state conditional on any initial state, such that the model only needs to be trained once and the trained model can be used to handle various initial distributions. This feature can provide a significant computational saving in studies of how the final state varies with the initial distribution. Additionally, we propose to use a pseudoreversible network architecture to define the normalizing flow model, which has sufficient expressive power and training efficiency for a variety of SDEs in science and engineering, e.g., in particle physics. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the pseudoreversible normalizing flow model to the target probability density function in the Kullback–Leibler divergence metric. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed normalizing flow model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

GFINNs: GENERIC formalism informed neural networks for deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems

Here we propose the GENERIC formalism informed neural networks (GFINNs) that obey the symmetric degeneracy conditions of the GENERIC formalism. GFINNs comprise two modules, each of which contains two components. We model each component using a neural network whose architecture is designed to satisfy the required conditions. The component-wise architecture design provides flexible ways of leveraging available physics information into neural networks. We prove theoretically that GFINNs are sufficiently expressive to learn the underlying equations, hence establishing the universal approximation theorem. We demonstrate the performance of GFINNs in three simulation problems: gas containers exchanging heat and volume, thermoelastic double pendulum and the Langevin dynamics. In all the examples, GFINNs outperform existing methods, hence demonstrating good accuracy in predictions for both deterministic and stochastic systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assimilating partial observation to enhance feedback control of stochastic dynamical systems

Here, in this paper, we present a novel methodology to tackle feedback optimal control problems in scenarios where the exact state of the controlled process is unknown. It integrates data assimilation techniques and optimal control solvers to manage partial observation of the state process, a common occurrence in practical scenarios. Traditional stochastic optimal control methods assume full state observation, which is often not feasible in real-world fluid dynamics control problems. Our approach underscores the significance of utilizing observational data to inform control policy design. Specifically, we introduce a kernel learning backward stochastic differential equation (SDE) filter to enhance data assimilation efficiency and propose a sample-wise stochastic optimization method within the stochastic maximum principle framework. We demonstrate the efficacy and accuracy of our method in the control of advection-diffusion-reaction flow problem and the Dubins airplane maneuvering problem with model uncertainty.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal mitigation and control over power system dynamics for stochastic grid resilience

Optimal mitigation planning for highly disruptive contingencies to a transmission-level power system requires optimization with dynamic power system constraints, due to the key role of dynamics in system stability to major perturbations. We formulate a generalized disjunctive program to determine optimal grid component hardening choices for protecting against major failures, with differential algebraic constraints representing system dynamics (specifically, differential equations representing generator and load behavior and algebraic equations representing instantaneous power balance over the transmission system). We optionally allow stochastic optimal pre-positioning across all considered failure scenarios, and optimal emergency control within each scenario. This novel formulation allows, for the first time, analyzing the resilience interdependencies of mitigation planning, preventive control, and emergency control. Using all three strategies in concert is particularly effective at maintaining robust power system operation under severe contingencies, as we demonstrate on the western system coordinating council 9-bus test system using synthetic multi-device outage scenarios.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure

In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.

Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation

In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗