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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary study of auto-differentiation algorithm in beam dynamics with stochastic process

Modern particle accelerator optimization requires sophisticated computational methods to address the inherently stochastic nature of beam dynamics. This research develops a framework applying AD to SDEs that specifically addresses beam dynamics challenges in particle accelerators, focusing on accurately modeling and optimizing beam behavior in regimes dominated by stochastic processes. By incorporating key physical phenomena such as synchrotron radiation, wakefield effects, and quantum excitation, the framework aims to provide auto differentiation on the figure of merit of the phase space evolution and beam dynamics. The methodology will enable effective optimization method in a dynamic system with stochastic process.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Host genetic variation drives the differentiation in the ecological role of the native Miscanthus root-associated microbiome

Microbiome recruitment is influenced by plant host, but how host plant impacts the assembly, functions, and interactions of perennial plant root microbiomes is poorly understood. Here we examined prokaryotic and fungal communities between rhizosphere soils and the root endophytic compartment in two native Miscanthus species (Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus floridulus) of Taiwan and further explored the roles of host plant on root-associated microbiomes. Our results suggest that host plant genetic variation, edaphic factors, and site had effects on the root endophytic and rhizosphere soil microbial community compositions in both Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus floridulus, with a greater effect of plant genetic variation observed for the root endophytic communities. Host plant genetic variation also exerted a stronger effect on core prokaryotic communities than on non-core prokaryotic communities in each microhabitat of two Miscanthus species. From rhizosphere soils to root endophytes, prokaryotic co-occurrence network stability increased, but fungal co-occurrence network stability decreased. Furthermore, we found root endophytic microbial communities in two Miscanthus species were more strongly driven by deterministic processes rather than stochastic processes. Root-enriched prokaryotic OTUs belong to Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Sphingobacteriia, and [Saprospirae] both in two Miscanthus species, while prokaryotic taxa enriched in the rhizosphere soil are widely distributed among different phyla. We provide empirical evidence that host genetic variation plays important roles in root-associated microbiome in Miscanthus. The results of this study have implications for future bioenergy crop management by providing baseline data to inform translational research to harness the plant microbiome to sustainably increase agriculture productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Agnostic Bayesian Framework for Online Anomaly/Event Detection in PMU Data

Phasor measurement units (PMU) are integral to the modernization and automation plan of the electric power industry. A PMU data signature contains system-level events (e.g., faults, generation/load change, etc.) and any measurement/device-related errors. Therefore, the reliable and resilient operation of power systems is equivalent to the quality of the PMU data and the situation awareness provided by its data signature. Despite recent progress, current state-of-the-art methods are not fool-proof and have certain limitations tracing an error/abnormality to sensor sub-components and grid systems. This is because of technical challenges imposed by the scarcity of the labeled information, loss of data quality, and non-stationarity of data. In this paper, we consider the online PMU data stream as an output of a stochastic process and pose the anomaly/event detection as a changepoint detection problem dealing with detecting parameter changes in the underlying stochastic processes. The proposed model-agnostic framework relies on: (a) feature extraction utilizing the minimum volume enclosing ellipsoids (MVEE) method from raw PMU observations and (b) a Bayesian framework of changepoint detection. The validity of the proposed methodology is discussed through numerical experiments on real-world utility-scale PMU data.

Hossain, Ramij Raja↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Voltage Probability Density Function Shaping Control Strategy Considering Grid Operational Uncertainties

It is well-known that power systems operation always affected by various uncertainties which make the bus voltage a random process that can be characterized by its probability density function (PDF) at any time instant. In this context, this paper presents a novel PDF-based voltage control framework for power systems. By modeling voltage as a stochastic process, we formulate a stochastic differential equationthat captures grid uncertainties. The associated Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is derived to describe the evolution of the voltage PDF, which enables the formulation of a PDF-shaping control strategy. To simplify the PDF control formulation, a B-spline neural network is introduced for real-time estimation and regulation of the voltage distribution. The proposed PDF control law updates voltage references for energy storage systems and synchronous generators using real-time PDF measurements and feedback signals. The proposed method is validated on a modified Kundur’s two-area system. Simulation results demonstrate that the controller can significantly improve the voltage stability under stochastic conditions, highlighting its effectiveness in modern inverter-rich grids.

Gui, Yonghao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000250435534)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial community dynamics in the soil-root continuum are linked with plant species turnover during secondary succession

Grazing exclusion and land abandonment are commonly adopted to restore degraded ecosystems in semiarid and arid regions worldwide. However, the temporal variation in the soil- versus root-associated microbiome over plant species turnover during secondary succession has rarely been quantified. Using the chronosequence restored from fenced grassland and abandoned farmlands on the Loess Plateau of China, we characterized the dynamics of the soil- and root-associated microbiome of host plant with different dominance statuses during secondary succession from 0 to 40 years. Our results revealed that the root microhabitat, the host plant and their interactions were the main contributors to the bacterial community shift (R 2 = 15.5%, 8.1%, and 22.3%, respectively), and plant interspecies replacement had a greater effect on the shift in the root-associated microbial community than intraspecies replacement did during succession. The root-associated bacterial community of pioneer plants was particularly responsive to succession, especially the endosphere community. Endosphere microbial diversity was positively correlated with host plant coverage change, and the diversity and abundance of taxon recruitment into the endosphere of pioneer plants from the surrounding environment decreased as succession progressed. The community assembly processes also indicated that the endosphere microbiota are strongly selected in younger host plants, whereas stochastic processes dominate in aged host plants. Our study provides evidence of the unique response of the root-associated microbiome to the replacement of plant species during secondary succession, and the function of endosphere microbes should be considered when studying plant–microbe feedback.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Force-Free Identification of Minimum-Energy Pathways and Transition States for Stochastic Electronic Structure Theories

Here, the accurate mapping of potential energy surfaces (PESs) is crucial to our understanding of the numerous physical and chemical processes mediated by atomic rearrangements, such as conformational changes and chemical reactions, and the thermodynamic and kinetic feasibility of these processes. Stochastic electronic structure theories, e.g., Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, enable highly accurate total energy calculations that in principle can be used to construct the PES. However, their stochastic nature poses a challenge to the computation and use of forces and Hessians, which are typically required in algorithms for minimum-energy pathway (MEP) and transition state (TS) identification, such as the nudged elastic band (NEB) algorithm and its climbing image formulation. Here, we present strategies that utilize the surrogate Hessian line-search method, previously developed for QMC structural optimization, to efficiently identify MEP and TS structures without requiring force calculations at the level of the stochastic electronic structure theory. By modifying the surrogate Hessian algorithm to operate in path-orthogonal subspaces and at saddle points, we show that it is possible to identify MEPs and TSs by using a force-free QMC approach. We demonstrate these strategies via two examples, the inversion of the ammonia (NH 3 ) molecule and the nucleophilic substitution (S N 2) reaction F – + CH 3 F → FCH 3 + F – . We validate our results using Density Functional Theory (DFT)- and Coupled Cluster (CCSD, CCSD(T))-based NEB calculations. We then introduce a hybrid DFT-QMC approach to compute thermodynamic and kinetic quantities, free energy differences, rate constants, and equilibrium constants that incorporates stochastically optimized structures and their energies, and show that this scheme improves upon DFT accuracy. Our methods generalize straightforwardly to other systems and other high-accuracy theories that similarly face challenges computing energy gradients, paving the way for highly accurate PES mapping, transition state determination, and thermodynamic and kinetic calculations at significantly reduced computational expense.

Iyer, Gopal R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Epigenetic drift underlies epigenetic clock signals, but displays distinct responses to lifespan interventions, development, and cellular dedifferentiation

Changes in DNA methylation with age are observed across the tree of life. The stereotypical nature of these changes can be modeled to produce epigenetic clocks capable of predicting chronological age with unprecedented accuracy. Despite the predictive ability of epigenetic clocks and their utility as biomarkers in clinical applications, the underlying processes that produce clock signals are not fully resolved, which limits their interpretability. Here, we develop a computational approach to spatially resolve the within read variability or “disorder” in DNA methylation patterns and test if age-associated changes in DNA methylation disorder underlie signals comprising epigenetic clocks. We find that epigenetic clock loci are enriched in regions that both accumulate and lose disorder with age, suggesting a link between DNA methylation disorder and epigenetic clocks. We then develop epigenetic clocks that are based on regional disorder of DNA methylation patterns and compare their performance to other epigenetic clocks by investigating the influences of development, lifespan interventions, and cellular dedifferentiation. We identify common responses as well as critical differences between canonical epigenetic clocks and those based on regional disorder, demonstrating a fundamental decoupling of epigenetic aging processes. Collectively, we identify key linkages between epigenetic disorder and epigenetic clocks and demonstrate the multifaceted nature of epigenetic aging in which stochastic processes occurring at non-random loci produce predictable outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the N -Representability of a Reduced Density Matrix via Unitary Evolution and Stochastic Sampling

The N-representability problem consists in determining whether, for a given p-body matrix, there exists at least one N-body density matrix from which the p-body matrix can be obtained by contraction, that is, if the given matrix is a p-body reduced density matrix (p-RDM). The knowledge of all necessary and sufficient conditions for a p-body matrix to be N-representable allows the constrained minimization of a many-body Hamiltonian expectation value with respect to the p-body density matrix and, thus, the determination of its exact ground state. However, the number of constraints that complete the N-representability conditions grows exponentially with system size, and hence, the procedure quickly becomes intractable for practical applications. This work introduces a hybrid quantum-stochastic algorithm to effectively replace the N-representability conditions. The algorithm consists of applying to an initial N-body density matrix a sequence of unitary evolution operators constructed from a stochastic process that successively approaches the reduced state of the density matrix on a p-body subsystem, represented by a p-RDM, to a target p-body matrix, potentially a p-RDM. The generators of the evolution operators follow the well-known adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter method (ADAPT), while the stochastic component is implemented by using a simulated annealing process. The resulting algorithm is independent of any underlying Hamiltonian, and it can be used to decide whether a given p-body matrix is N-representable, establishing a criterion to determine its quality and correcting it. We apply the proposed hybrid ADAPT algorithm to alleged reduced density matrices from a quantum chemistry electronic Hamiltonian, from the reduced Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer model with constant pairing, and from the Heisenberg XXZ spin model. In all cases, the proposed method behaves as expected for 1-RDMs and 2-RDMs, evolving the initial matrices toward different targets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A three-point velocity estimation method for two-dimensional coarse-grained imaging data

Time delay and velocity estimation methods have been widely studied subjects in the context of signal processing, with applications in many different fields of physics. The velocity of waves or coherent fluctuation structures is commonly estimated as the distance between two measurement points divided by the time lag that maximizes the cross correlation function between the measured signals, but this is demonstrated to result in erroneous estimates for two spatial dimensions. We present an improved method to accurately estimate both components of the velocity vector, relying on three non-aligned measurement points. We introduce a stochastic process describing the fluctuations as a superposition of uncorrelated pulses moving in two dimensions. Using this model, we show that the three-point velocity estimation method, using time delays calculated through cross correlations, yields the exact velocity components when all pulses have the same velocity. The two- and three-point methods are tested on synthetic data generated from realizations of such processes for which the underlying velocity components are known. The results reveal the superiority of the three-point technique. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the velocity estimation on gas puff imaging data of strongly intermittent plasma fluctuations due to the radial motion of coherent, blob-like structures at the boundary of the Alcator C-Mod tokamak.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗