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Results for “Stratospheric Warmings”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in the response of sudden stratospheric warmings and stratosphere- troposphere coupling to quadrupled CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 models

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere-troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2 ) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. The models, however, are in good agreement as to the impact of SSWs over the North Atlantic: there is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex, and thus a longer season of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs)↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)

The details of the stratospheric warming processes as to time, area, and intensity were established, and the warmings with other terrestrial and solar phenomena occurring at satellite platform altitudes, or observable from satellite platforms, were correlated. Links were sought between the perturbed upper atmosphere (mesosphere and thermosphere) and the stratosphere that might explain stratospheric warmings.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the warming of the polar troposphere during the stratospheric warming of January 1977

In January 1977, a warming of the polar troposphere occurred following a major stratospheric warming. The temperature increase in the polar troposphere is found to be larger below 400 mb than in the upper troposphere. Analysis of the heat budget of the polar troposphere shows that the eddy heat flux convergence is the major factor responsible for the tropospheric warming.

Hansen, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗
NASA NTRS1978

Stratospheric warmings - Observations and theory

Winter stratospheric-warming observations and associated theories are reviewed. Major warmings occur on the average every other year and may be considered an important climatological component of the winter stratosphere. The warming results from eddy heat transport from equatorial latitudes into the polar regions. The eddies chiefly responsible for the transport are the planetary-scale waves which may attain amplitudes twice their monthly average values in the lower stratosphere prior to the warming. In the troposphere this amplitude increase is associated with the development of blocking patterns. The warming is shown to have a strong nonzonal component in the upper stratosphere, a feature not fully recognized by modelers. The critical-level theory of the sudden stratospheric warming provides a simple dynamic explanation of the event. The close connection between blocking in the troposphere and the development of the sudden warming is likely to be a result of resonance of free planetary waves in a stratospheric wind cavity.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The interaction of radiative and dynamical processes during a simulated sudden stratospheric warming

An analysis of a spontaneous sudden stratospheric warming that occurred during a 2-year integration of the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Atmospheric Simulation Model is presented. The simulated warming resembles observed 'wave 1' warmings in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and provides an opportunity to investigate the radiative and dynamical processes occurring during the warming event. Isentropic analysis of potential vorticity sources and sinks indicates that dynamically induced departures from radiative equilibrium play an important role in the warming event. Enhanced radiative cooling associated with a series of upper stratospheric warm pools leads to radiative dampening within the polar vortex. Within the 'surf zone' large-scale radiative cooling leads to diabatic advection of high potential vorticity air from aloft. Lagrangian area diagnostics of the simulated warming agree well with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) analyses. Dynamical mixing is shown to account for the majority of the decrease in the size of the polar vortex during the simulated warming. An investigation of the nonlinear deformation of material lines that are initially coincident with diagnosed potential vorticity isopleths is conducted to clarify the relationship between the Lagrangian area diagnostics and potential vorticity advection during wave breaking events.

Pierce, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of data from spacecraft relating to stratospheric warmings

A detailed study of six different stratospheric warmings is described which establishes that the magnetic indices AE, Ap, and Dst display a marked increase 1 to 3 days before warming phenomena and a marked decrease at 0 and -4 days. The definite correlation of the warming phenomena with the AE index indicates that the auroral electrojet joule heating near 100 km may be the original source of the heating that influences the atmosphere at 50 km and below. Whether this heating is the primary cause or trigger of stratospheric warmings remains to be determined.

Weiss, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)

Links between the upper atmosphere and the stratosphere were studied to explain stratospheric warmings, and to correlate the warmings with other terrestrial and solar phenomena. Physical mechanisms for warming, or which may act as a trigger are discussed along with solar and geophysical indices. Two stratospheric warming cases are analyzed.

Anderson, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The minor stratospheric warming of January 1989 - Results from STRATAN, a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system

Using a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system, referred to as STRATAN, a minor sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 1989 is investigated. The event had a maximum influence on the stratospheric circulation near 2 hPa. The zonal mean circulation reversed briefly in the polar region as the temperature increased 34 K in 3 days. The cause of the warming is shown to be the rapid development and subsequent movement of a warm anomaly, which initially developed in the midlatitudes. The development of the warm anomaly is caused by adiabatic descent, and the dissipation by radiative cooling. A brief comparison with the NMC analysis and temperature sounding data is also presented.

Steenrod, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS1985

SAGE studies of the waves and eddy fluxes of ozone and temperature near 55 deg during the late February 1979 stratospheric warming

Ozone data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment have been used in conjunction with meteorological information to study the waves and eddy fluxes of ozone and temperature near 55 deg N during the late February 1979 stratospheric warming. The results indicate an intense poleward eddy ozone transport in the altitude range between approximately 24 and 38 km, and an equatorward transport above an altitude of about 38 km. It is found that this equatorward eddy ozone transport in the upper stratosphere was accompanied by a poleward eddy heat transport, as expected on the basis of the ozone photochemistry. The results also indicate that the phase relationship between ozone and temperature waves agrees qualitatively with existing model analyses.

Wang, P.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.

Chao, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

A study of the energetics of an upper stratospheric warming /1969-1970/.

Results of stratospheric hemispheric synoptic analyses at the 10-, 5-, and 2-mb levels for seven days during an intense warming. Employing these analyses along with the daily objective analyses from 1000-30 mb, some of the major energy transformations for the troposphere and lower and middle stratosphere were computed. It was found that the middle stratospheric warming event was of a direct baroclinic type, forced from below. It was noted that if the warming is to propagate into the lower stratosphere, it is necessary to reverse the normal eddy kinetic to eddy potential energy transfer in that region so that it operates in a direct baroclinic sense.

Miller, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Behavior of the sodium and hydroxyl nighttime emissions during a stratospheric warming

The behavior of the sodium and hydroxyl nighttime emissions during a stratospheric warming has been studied principally by use of data from the airglow photometers on the OGO 4 satellite. During the late stages of a major warming, both emissions increased appreciably, with the sodium emission returning to normal values prior to the decrease in the hydroxyl emission. The emission behaviors are attributed to temperature and density variations from 70 to 94 km, and a one-dimensional hydrostatic model for that altitude range is used to calculate the effects on the emissions and on the mesospheric ozone densities. These results support the existence of a warming in the upper part of the mesosphere that is correlated with a major stratospheric warming.

Walker, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense maritime mesoscale cyclones that can pose hazards to coastal communities and marine operation in the Arctic. This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on PL activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The 20 days following SSWs are characterized by tropospheric circulation anomalies resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. PL activity decreases significantly over the Labrador Sea, which can be attributed to the infrequent occurrence of low static stability and strong environmental baroclinicity, as well as reduced surface turbulent heat fluxes. These results suggest that a skillful prediction of SSWs can improve the extended-range forecast of PL activity over the Labrador Sea. For the Nordic seas, the results imply that the spatial structure of an SSW event is important for the PL modulation through different tropospheric circulation patterns. Situations with increased PL frequency in the Nordic seas are characterized by SSWs centered close to northern Greenland occurring over a smaller area, and a tropospheric response featuring enhanced cold-air outbreaks over the Norwegian Sea. Conversely, PL activity is suppressed over the Nordic seas when the SSW favors the formation of a tropospheric anticyclone above Greenland and Scandinavia. Significance Statement This study investigates the relationships between polar lows (PLs) and sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over the subarctic North Atlantic. A better understanding of the effect of SSWs on PL development has the potential to improve extended-range forecasts of PLs. It is shown that SSWs are responsible for the significantly suppressed regional PL activity over the Labrador Sea, suggesting that SSWs can serve as a predictor for the extended-range forecast of PLs over this region. Following SSW events, the thermodynamic state of atmosphere becomes more stable over the Labrador Sea and hinders the convective development of PLs. For the northern Nordic seas, the impacts of SSWs on PL activity are sensitive to the spatial structure of stratospheric warming.

Chang, Chuan-Chieh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Antarctic Stratospheric Warming and its Impacts in 2019

We explore the mechanism, predictability and hemispheric-wide surface impacts of a rare stratospheric warming that occurred above Antarctica during austral spring (September to November) 2019, using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis set for the period 1979-2019. From late August to mid-September, the stratospheric polar vortex suddenly weakened, and the stratospheric temperatures dramatically rose over the Antarctic polar cap. The deceleration of the vortex observed at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean warming in the mid-stratosphere (~30hPa) over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50%. The key mechanism for this event was a poleward shift of the polar night jet near the stratopause during mid-winter and subsequent record strong planetary wavenumber-one activity propagating from the troposphere in August, which acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex. The easterly wind anomalies and positive temperature anomalies moved downward to the surface during October to December, causing the index polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to become record-negative for the season. The record negative SAM played a key role in inducing significant local climate extremes over eastern Australia, southern New Zealand, eastern South America and western Patagonia. Especially, the strong negative SAM was the key driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia in late spring 2019 that, in turn, were conducive for the severe wildfires that occurred during that time. State-of-the-art dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the upward propagating wavenumber-one activity in August, the significant vortex weakening of austral spring 2019, and subsequent development of negative SAM from late July.

Eun-Pa Lim↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of the Stratospheric Wave Events, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, and Their Influence on the Troposphere

Stratospheric wave events and major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are well captured in high-resolution global forecasts out to 10 days. Tropospheric influences of SSW include statistically significant shifts in the storm tracks and associated surface temperature and precipitation pattern changes. Since these events can in turn influence the troposphere on time scales of 30-60 days the ability to predict these events and the subsequent long-term response on time scales beyond 10 days is of interest. Here we examine the prediction of stratospheric wave events and their evolution using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) system. This is a recently released subseasonal to seasonal forecast system, GEOS-S2S version 2.1. Compared to GMAO's previous system, the new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model of the cryosphere, includes additional interactive aerosol model components, and the ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Results are based on a comprehensive series of hindcasts starting from the year 2000. They show that while the S2S system is not as accurate at 10 days in forecasting major SSW events as the NASA GMAO Forward Processing system, it can usefully predict stratospheric anomalies out to 20 days and the subsequent stratospheric/tropospheric evolution beyond 30 days.

Coy, L.↗