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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A dynamic data-driven method for dealing with model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation

Attributing to the flexibility in considering various types of observation error and model error, data assimilation has been increasingly applied to dynamically improve soil moisture modeling in many hydrological practices. However, accurate characterization of model error, especially the part caused by defective model structure, presents a significant challenge to the successful implementation of data assimilation. Model structural error has received limited attention relative to parameter and input errors, mainly due to our poor understanding of structural inadequacy and the difficulties in parameterizing structural error. In this paper, we present a dynamic data-driven approach to estimate the model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation without the need for identifying error generation mechanism or specifying particular form for the error model. The error model is based on the Gaussian process regression and then integrated into the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to form a hybrid method for dealing with multi-source model errors. Two variants of the hybrid method in terms of two different error correction manners are proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested through a suit of synthetic cases and a real-world case. Results demonstrate the potential of the proposed hybrid method for estimating model structural error and providing improved model predictions. Compared to the traditional EnKF without explicitly considering the model structural error, parameter compensation issue is obviously reduced and soil moisture retrieval is substantially improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling error structures of precipitation datasets using decision trees

Characterizing error structures in precipitation products not only facilitates their proper applications for scientific and practical purposes but also helps improve their retrieval algorithms and processing methods. Despite the fact that multiple precipitation products have been assessed in the literature, factors that affect their error structures remain inadequately addressed. By interpreting 60 binary decision trees, this study disentangles the error characteristics of precipitation products in terms of their spatiotemporal patterns and geographical factors. Three independent precipitation products - two satellite-based and one reanalysis datasets: the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) late run (IMERG-L), Soil Moisture to Rain-Advanced SCATterometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 uncorrected precipitation output (MERRA2-UC), are evaluated across the contiguous United States from 2010 to 2019. Here, the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. Results indicate that the MERRA2-UC outperforms the IMERG-L and SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the analysis period. Decision trees cross-assess three spatiotemporal factors and find that the underestimation of MERRA2-UC occurs in the east of the Rocky Mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine different geographical characteristics, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover type, topography position index, and aspect are three relatively weak factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

QuadTune version 1: a regional tuner for global atmospheric models

When a new, better-formulated physical parameterization is introduced into a global atmospheric model, aspects of the global model solutions are sometimes degraded. Then, in order to use the new global model to address science questions, there is an incentive to restore its accuracy. Oftentimes this restoration is achieved by tuning of model parameter values. Unfortunately, the retuning process is expensive because characterizing the parameter dependence requires numerous time-consuming global simulations. To reduce the cost of tuning, this manuscript introduces a “poor man's” model tuner, “QuadTune”. QuadTune carves the globe into regions and approximates the model parameter dependence through the use of an uncorrelated quadratic emulator (i.e., response surface). The simplicity of the emulator reduces the required number of global model simulations and aids explainability of tuner behavior. Tuning removes parametric error but leaves behind model structural error. Structural error manifests itself as regional residual biases, such as stubborn biases and tuning trade-offs. To visualize these residual biases, QuadTune's software includes a set of diagnostic plots. This paper illustrates the use of the plots for characterizing residual biases with an example tuning problem.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2019

Embedded Model Error Representation for Bayesian Model Calibration

Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often the largest contributor to the overall predictive uncertainty. This work builds on a recently developed framework of embedded, internal model correction, in order to represent and quantify structural errors, together with model parameters,within a Bayesian inference context. We focus specifically on a Polynomial Chaos representation with additive modification of existing model parameters, enabling a non-intrusive procedure for efficient approximate likelihood construction, model error estimation, and disambiguation of model and data errors’ contributions to predictive uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on several synthetic examples, as well as on a chemical ignition problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomic protein structure refinement using all-atom graph representations and SE(3)-equivariant graph transformer

Abstract Motivation The state-of-art protein structure prediction methods such as AlphaFold are being widely used to predict structures of uncharacterized proteins in biomedical research. There is a significant need to further improve the quality and nativeness of the predicted structures to enhance their usability. In this work, we develop ATOMRefine, a deep learning-based, end-to-end, all-atom protein structural model refinement method. It uses a SE(3)-equivariant graph transformer network to directly refine protein atomic coordinates in a predicted tertiary structure represented as a molecular graph. Results The method is first trained and tested on the structural models in AlphaFoldDB whose experimental structures are known, and then blindly tested on 69 CASP14 regular targets and 7 CASP14 refinement targets. ATOMRefine improves the quality of both backbone atoms and all-atom conformation of the initial structural models generated by AlphaFold. It also performs better than two state-of-the-art refinement methods in multiple evaluation metrics including an all-atom model quality score—the MolProbity score based on the analysis of all-atom contacts, bond length, atom clashes, torsion angles, and side-chain rotamers. As ATOMRefine can refine a protein structure quickly, it provides a viable, fast solution for improving protein geometry and fixing structural errors of predicted structures through direct coordinate refinement. Availability and implementation The source code of ATOMRefine is available in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/BioinfoMachineLearning/ATOMRefine). All the required data for training and testing are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6944368.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change-point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non-closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year -1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A posteriori error analysis of fluid–structure interactions: Time dependent error

A posteriori error analysis is a technique to quantify the error in particular simulations of a numerical approximation method. In this article, we use such an approach to analyze how various error components propagate in certain moving boundary problems. We study quasi-steady state simulations where slowly moving boundaries remain in mechanical equilibrium with a surrounding fluid. Such problems can be numerically approximated with the Method of Regularized Stokelets (MRS), a popular method used for studying viscous fluid–structure interactions, especially in biological applications. Our approach to monitoring the regularization error of the MRS is novel, along with the derivation of linearized adjoint equations to the governing equations of the MRS with a elastic elements. Our main numerical results provide a clear illustration of how the error evolves over time in several MRS simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiresolution Quantum Chemistry: Nonlinear Response Properties at the Basis Set Limit

We benchmark the accuracy of Dunning correlation-consistent Gaussian basis sets for computing frequencydependent second-order hyperpolarizabilities relevant to second-harmonic generation (SHG), using multiresolution analysis (MRA) as a reference. Basis set errors are analyzed using a unit-sphere representation of the effective hyperpolarizability vector, enabling direct assessment of directional error structure. We introduce a relative RMS total error metric that integrates directional deviations over the unit sphere and complement it with signed projection errors that distinguish over- and underestimation. Unsupervised clustering based on these signed directional metrics reveals four distinct convergence behaviors across a set of 68 molecules. Unitsphere visualizations of representative systems show that basis set errors are often highly anisotropic and localized along specific bond directions, even when global error measures appear small. Doubly augmented basis sets consistently outperform singly augmented ones, and core-polarization functions are required for uniform convergence in second-row systems. Overall, this work demonstrates that directional analysis combined with clustering provides a robust framework for understanding basis set convergence in nonlinear optical response properties.

Basis sets↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Hydrologic Model Process Connectivity at the Continental Scale Through an Information Theory Approach

Exploring water fluxes between hydrological model (HM) components is essential to assess and improve model realism. Many classical metrics for HM diagnosis rely solely on streamflow and hence provide limited insights into model performance across processes. This study applies an information theory measure known as “transfer entropy” (TE) to systematically quantify the transfer of information among major HM components. To test and demonstrate the benefits of TE, we use the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) model to mimic and compare four commonly used HM structures, VIC, PRMS, SACRAMENTO, and TOPMODEL, across 671 catchments spanning a variety of hydrologic regimes in the conterminous United States. We explore connections between HM components and catchment landscape characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, soil, and vegetation) and characterize their nonlinear associations using distance correlation and Spearman correlation coefficients. Our results indicate that while the information transferred from precipitation to runoff is similar across model structures (likely as a result of calibration), the information transferred among other components can vary significantly from a FUSE structure to another. We find that aridity, precipitation duration and frequency, snow fraction, mean elevation, forest area, and leaf area index are often significantly associated with TE between the main HM components. Here, we propose that the presence of meaningful nonlinear associations can be used to diagnose process representation in HMs. Our results highlight the necessity to enhance the conventional streamflow-only calibration approach for a more realistic representation of water dynamics in the models.

large-sample hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2019

Nearly Optimal Lattice Simulation by Product Formulas

We consider simulating an n-qubit Hamiltonian with nearest-neighbor interactions evolving for time t on a quantum computer. We show that this simulation has gate complexity (nt)1+o(1) using product formulas, a straightforward approach that has been demonstrated by several experimental groups. While it is reasonable to expect this complexity—in particular, this was claimed without rigorous justification by Jordan, Lee, and Preskill—we are not aware of a straightforward proof. Furthermore, our approach is based on an analysis of the local error structure of product formulas, as introduced by Descombes and Thalhammer and significantly simplified here. We prove error bounds for canonical product formulas, which include well-known constructions such as the Lie-Trotter-Suzuki formulas. We also develop a local error representation for time-dependent Hamiltonian simulation, and we discuss generalizations to periodic boundary conditions, constant-range interactions, and higher dimensions. Combined with a previous lower bound, our result implies that product formulas can simulate lattice Hamiltonians with nearly optimal gate complexity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting Noise2Inverse via enhanced model selection for denoising computed tomography data

Synchrotron-based x-ray tomographic imaging enables the examination of the internal structure of materials at high spatial and temporal resolution. Experimental constraints can impose dose and time limits on the measurements, introducing a higher level of noise and artifacts in the reconstructed images. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool to remove noise from reconstructed images. Recently, the Noise2Inverse method was designed specifically for denoising reconstructed images without requiring paired noisy and clean images. This method creates multiple statistically independent reconstructions used to pair the data in which training involves transforming one reconstruction into the other, and vice versa. Originally designed to be used after a fixed number of epochs, we see in practice that this approach may not produce the optimal model and may unnecessarily waste computational resources. Therefore, we propose an alternative method of identifying the best model during training that aligns with the Noise2Inverse method. During validation, we compare the model output of the multiple reconstructions among each other. We hypothesize that the best model is the one that produces images with the highest similarity, implying a convergence in the predicted material properties and absorption values. To compare model outputs, we consider the absolute error, square error, structural similarity index (SSIM), peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), and cosine similarity. We evaluate our method on two simulated tomography datasets and two, real-world, low-contrast, high-energy x-ray tomography datasets. We show our approach is more effective at determining the best model, up to an increase of 12.50% and 12.53% in SSIM and PSNR, respectively, while only requiring a fifth of the training time compared to the original approach.

CT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards robust autonomous impedance spectroscopy analysis: A calibrated hierarchical Bayesian approach for electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) inversion

Distribution-based analyses, such as the distribution of relaxation times (DRT) and the distribution of diffusion times (DDT), present model-free alternatives to equivalent circuit modeling for analysis of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data. However, reconstructing such distributions from noisy impedance data is an ill-posed problem that must be solved with specialized inversion algorithms, requiring careful control and tuning. Furthermore, most inversion algorithms developed to date can only solve problems of limited complexity. Herein, we present a new hierarchical Bayesian method for EIS inversion, leveraging efficient algorithms for optimization and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling to solve models of arbitrary complexity. We overcome the challenge of ad-hoc parameter tuning by encoding intrinsic characteristics of the DRT and DDT into flexible prior distributions and “pre-calibrating” the model to simulated data. This approach is versatile, highly robust to noise, and provides quantitative estimates of both the error structure of the data and the uncertainty in the recovered distributions. The model is validated with simulated data to demonstrate accurate recovery of the DRT and the DDT. The method also shows promise for simultaneous recovery of multiple distributions, raising the intriguing possibility of semi-autonomous EIS analysis and ad-hoc model construction. Finally, the practical utility of the method is illustrated with experimental data. Throughout, we draw comparisons to several recently published EIS inversion methodologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of fabrication on microstructure and heat affected zone width in weldments of nuclear reactor pressure vessel steel

Advanced manufacturing routes such as electron beam welding and powder metallurgy with hot isostatic pressing are increasingly used across energy and aerospace industries, where the reliable prediction of weld behavior and heat affected zone (HAZ) evolution is critical. This study examines how fabrication routes and post-weld heat treatments influence phase distribution, crystallite size, microstrain, and dislocation density in nuclear reactor pressure vessel steels using synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD). Retained austenite occurs only in samples that did not undergo austenitization, whereas an austenitizing heat treatment fully eliminates retained austenite and produces a more uniform microstructure across the weldment in terms of phase fraction, dislocation density, and microstrain. The Rosenthal solution underestimates the HAZ width for powder metallurgy samples. A newly proposed modified Rosenthal solution, reducing density by accounting for porosity, matches the SXRD-measured HAZ width with a 0.65% error. Structure–property correlations reveal that dislocation density correlates strongly with nanohardness in homogenous microstructures, while in heterogenous weldments nanohardness is further influenced by the presence of dissimilar phase boundaries. These findings provide new insight into the thermal and microstructural response of powder metallurgy fabricated steels and offer a framework for optimizing welding procedures and heat treatments in advanced manufacturing applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning assisted hybrid models can improve streamflow simulation in diverse catchments across the conterminous US

Incomplete representations of physical processes often lead to structural errors in process-based (PB) hydrologic models. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can reduce streamflow modeling errors but do not enforce physical consistency. As a result, ML algorithms may be unreliable if used to provide future hydroclimate projections where climates and land use patterns are outside the range of training data. Here we test hybrid models built by integrating PB model outputs with a ML algorithm known as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on their ability to simulate streamflow in 531 catchments representing diverse conditions across the Conterminous United States. Model performance of hybrid models as measured by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) improved relative to standalone PB and LSTM models. More importantly, hybrid models provide highest improvement in catchments where PB models fail completely (i.e., NSE < 0). However, all models performed poorly in catchments with extended low flow periods, suggesting need for additional research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗