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Results for “Subset selection for regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Machine learning-based surrogate modeling for data-driven optimization: a comparison of subset selection for regression techniques

Optimization of simulation-based or data-driven systems is a challenging task, which has attracted significant attention in the recent literature. A very efficient approach for optimizing systems without analytical expressions is through fitting surrogate models. Due to their increased flexibility, nonlinear interpolating functions, such as radial basis functions and Kriging, have been predominantly used as surrogates for data-driven optimization; however, these methods lead to complex nonconvex formulations. Alternatively, commonly used regression-based surrogates lead to simpler formulations, but they are less flexible and inaccurate if the form is not known a priori. In this work, we investigate the efficiency of subset selection regression techniques for developing surrogate functions that balance both accuracy and complexity. Subset selection creates sparse regression models by selecting only a subset of original features, which are linearly combined to generate a diverse set of surrogate models. Five different subset selection techniques are compared with commonly used nonlinear interpolating surrogate functions with respect to optimization solution accuracy, computation time, sampling requirements, and model sparsity. Furthermore, our results indicate that subset selection-based regression functions exhibit promising performance when the dimensionality is low, while interpolation performs better for higher dimensional problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Algorithm For Solution Of Subset-Regression Problems

Reliable and flexible algorithm for solution of subset-regression problem performs QR decomposition with new column-pivoting strategy, enables selection of subset directly from originally defined regression parameters. This feature, in combination with number of extensions, makes algorithm very flexible for use in analysis of subset-regression problems in which parameters have physical meanings. Also extended to enable joint processing of columns contaminated by noise with those free of noise, without using scaling techniques.

Verhaegen, Michel↗

Evaluation of the potential of one to three SEASAT-SMMR channels in retrieving sea surface temperature

The scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) aboard the SEASAT satellite measured emitted radiation in both horizontal and vertical polarizations at microwave frequencies of 6.6, 10.69, 18.0, 21.0 and 37.0 GHz. Retrieval algorithms, for sea surface temperature (SST) determination, from subsets of one to three SMMR channels are obtained by a two step statistical technique. The technique first selects the best subsets of a given size defined by an R2 criterion (coefficient of determination), of a given size by the application of an efficient 'leaps and bounds' technique on a statistical data base. It then performs a regression analysis on the selected subsets. The statistical data base employed a large (600) set of seasonally and geographically diverse atmospheric and surface parameters for radiative transfer calculations. The results of the study of one to three channel subset retrieval algorithms indicate the possibility of using 6.6V, 6.6H and 18V channels for SST determination from SEASAT-SMMR data.

Pandey, P. C.↗

On the reliable and flexible solution of practical subset regression problems

A new algorithm for solving subset regression problems is described. The algorithm performs a QR decomposition with a new column-pivoting strategy, which permits subset selection directly from the originally defined regression parameters. This, in combination with a number of extensions of the new technique, makes the method a very flexible tool for analyzing subset regression problems in which the parameters have a physical meaning.

Verhaegen, M. H.↗

On the reliable and flexible solution of practical subset regression problems

A new algorithm for solving subset regression problems is described. The algorithm performs a QR decomposition with a new column-pivoting strategy, which permits subset selection directly from the originally defined regression parameters. This, in combination with a number of extensions of the new technique, makes the method a very flexible tool for analyzing subset regression problems in which the parameters have a physical meaning.

Verhaegen, M.↗

Water quality parameter measurement using spectral signatures

Regression analysis is applied to the problem of measuring water quality parameters from remote sensing spectral signature data. The equations necessary to perform regression analysis are presented and methods of testing the strength and reliability of a regression are described. An efficient algorithm for selecting an optimal subset of the independent variables available for a regression is also presented.

White, P. E.↗

Empirical Modeling of Plant Gas Fluxes in Controlled Environments

As humans extend their reach beyond the earth, bioregenerative life support systems must replace the resupply and physical/chemical systems now used. The Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) will utilize plants to recycle the carbon dioxide (CO2) and excrement produced by humans and return oxygen (O2), purified water and food. CELSS design requires knowledge of gas flux levels for net photosynthesis (PS(sub n)), dark respiration (R(sub d)) and evapotranspiration (ET). Full season gas flux data regarding these processes for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) from published sources were used to develop empirical models. Univariate models relating crop age (days after planting) and gas flux were fit by simple regression. Models are either high order (5th to 8th) or more complex polynomials whose curves describe crop development characteristics. The models provide good estimates of gas flux maxima, but are of limited utility. To broaden the applicability, data were transformed to dimensionless or correlation formats and, again, fit by regression. Polynomials, similar to those in the initial effort, were selected as the most appropriate models. These models indicate that, within a cultivar, gas flux patterns appear remarkably similar prior to maximum flux, but exhibit considerable variation beyond this point. This suggests that more broadly applicable models of plant gas flux are feasible, but univariate models defining gas flux as a function of crop age are too simplistic. Multivariate models using CO2 and crop age were fit for PS(sub n), and R(sub d) by multiple regression. In each case, the selected model is a subset of a full third order model with all possible interactions. These models are improvements over the univariate models because they incorporate more than the single factor, crop age, as the primary variable governing gas flux. They are still limited, however, by their reliance on the other environmental conditions under which the original data were collected. Three-dimensional plots representing the response surface of each model are included. Suitability of using empirical models to generate engineering design estimates is discussed. Recommendations for the use of more complex multivariate models to increase versatility are included.

Cornett, Jessie David↗

Retrieval of Geophysical Parameters From Radiometric Data

Rapid linear algorithm retrieves meteorological parameters from microwave radiometric data. Versatile 2-step, multiple-linear-regression algorithm examines all possible subsets of available channels and selects optimum subset for retrieving given geophysical or meteorological parameter.

Pandey, P. C.↗

Machine Learning Optimization of p-Type Transparent Conducting Films

p-Type transparent conducting materials (p-TCMs) are important components of optoelectronic devices including solar cells, photodetectors, displays, and flexible sensors. Cu–Zn–S thin films prepared by chemical bath deposition (CBD) can have both high transparency in the visible range (>80%) as well as excellent hole conductivity (>1000 S cm –1 ). However, the interplay between the deposition parameters in the CBD process (metal and sulfur precursor concentrations, temperature, pH, complexing agents, etc.) creates a multidimensional parameter space such that optimization for a specific application is challenging and time-consuming. Here we show that strategic design of experiment combined with machine learning (ML) allows for the efficient optimization of p-TCM performance. The approach is guided by a figure of merit (FOM) calculated from the film conductivity and optical transmission in the desired spectral range. A specific example is shown using two steps of optimization using a selected subset of four experimental CBD factors. The ML model is based on support vector regression employing a radial basis function as the kernel function. 10-fold cross-validation was performed to mitigate overfitting. After the first round of optimization, predicted areas in the parameter space with maximal FOMs were selected for a second round of optimization. Films with optimal FOMs were incorporated into heterojunction solar cells and transparent photodiodes. Here, the optimization approach shown here will be generally applicable to any materials synthesis process with multiple parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Strain-Gage Loads Calibration Parametric Study

This paper documents a parametric study of various aircraft wing-load test features that affect the quality of the resultant derived shear, bending-moment, and torque strain-gage load equations. The effect of the following on derived strain-gage equation accuracy are compared: single-point loading compared with distributed loading, variation in applied test load magnitude, number of applied load cases, and wing-box-only compared with control-surface loading. The subject of this study is an extensive wing-load calibration test of the Active Aeroelastic Wing F/A-18 airplane. Selected subsets of the available test data were used to derive load equations using the linear regression method. Results show the benefit of distributed loading and the diminishing-return benefits of test load magnitudes and number of load cases. The use of independent check cases as a quality metric for the derived load equations is shown to overcome blind extrapolating beyond the load data used to derive the load equations.

Lokos, William A.↗

Parsimonious Potential Energy Surface Expansions Using Dictionary Learning with Multipass Greedy Selection

Potential energy surfaces fit with basis set expansions have been shown to provide accurate representations of electronic energies and have enabled a variety of high-accuracy dynamics, kinetics, and spectroscopy applications. The number of terms in these expansions scales poorly with system size, a drawback that challenges their use for systems with more than similar to 10 atoms. A solution is presented here using dictionary learning. Subsets of the full set of conventional basis functions are optimized using a newly developed multipass greedy regression method inspired by forward and backward selection methods from the statistics, signal processing, and machine learning literatures. Here, the optimized representations have accuracies comparable to the full set but are 1 or more orders of magnitude smaller, and notably, the number of terms in the optimized multipass greedy expansions scales approximately linearly with the number of atoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

Ferguson, M. C.↗

A Data-Driven Method for Estimating Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Generation in Hawaii

Due to the increasing penetration of distributed behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems and the installed utility revenue metering limited to monitoring only the net power import/export of the household, it is increasingly challenging for utilities to effectively plan and operate the grid. This paper proposes a methodology that estimates behind-the-meter PV generation using a selected subset of monitored PV systems. It is a data-driven approach, and the PV output is estimated utilizing a statistic regression model. A Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm is applied to preselect the optimal subset of the monitored PV systems. The performance of this approach is compared with a spatial interpolation method and a model-based approach. The proposed method is validated using high-resolution meter data recorded from 18 residential rooftop PV systems located on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Data-driven modeling↗

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of atmospheric moisture content from microwave radiometric measurements during CCOPE

A multiple linear regression technique has been applied to retrieve continuous sequences of atmospheric moisture profiles from a set of measured data. In this method the selection of an optimal subset of sensor channels plays a crucial role, in order to reduce the impact of data noise and redundancy. The data were obtained with a 4-channel remote-sensing microwave instrument carried aboard an aircraft. In contrast, most previously reported moisture profile retrievals from microwave radiometry have been used on simulated, discontinuous data. Although the data were obtained over a land surface with only a limited amount of correlative data, the retrievals were quite successful.

Lambrigtsen, B. H.↗

Harnessing the power of ab initio calculations, distributed computing and machine learning to efficiently locate extreme molecules for use in carbon-based solar cells (Final Technical Report)

The use of high-throughput virtual screening (HTVS) tools is a powerful tool to expedite the materials discovery of commercially relevant materials. In previous years, our group has developed a molecular discovery platform to generate libraries in order to obtain suitable candidates for different applications, starting from the Harvard Clean Energy Project. This platform is suitable to test in-silico on traditional supercomputing clusters and shared resources, for example, in the IBM World Community Grid. In this project, we used the molecular discovery platform to create and screen a library of candidates of organic photovoltaic (OPVs) molecules. Based on a set of candidates created with combinations of molecular moieties, we were able to filter, by conformation stability, the energy of electronic orbitals and approximated power conversion efficiencies (PCE). To improve the predictions of orbital energies calculated and the PCEs, we used Gaussian Process regression and two sets of molecules. These sets correspond to electronic structure calculations of a higher level of theory and experimental PCE values, respectively. Finally, we selected a subset of the best candidates (molecules with a PCE higher than 10%) to understand its absorbance properties with TD-DFT. This project has demonstrated the capabilities of our molecular discovery platform for HTVS. Finally, machine learning can help us to introduce more complex effects included in bulk conditions and computational intensive calculations on models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Disentangling Alzheimer’s disease neurodegeneration from typical brain ageing using machine learning

Abstract Neuroimaging biomarkers that distinguish between changes due to typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease are valuable for determining how much each contributes to cognitive decline. Supervised machine learning models can derive multivariate patterns of brain change related to the two processes, including the Spatial Patterns of Atrophy for Recognition of Alzheimer’s Disease (SPARE-AD) and of Brain Aging (SPARE-BA) scores investigated herein. However, the substantial overlap between brain regions affected in the two processes confounds measuring them independently. We present a methodology, and associated results, towards disentangling the two. T1-weighted MRI scans of 4054 participants (48–95 years) with Alzheimer’s disease, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or cognitively normal (CN) diagnoses from the Imaging-based coordinate SysTem for AGIng and NeurodeGenerative diseases (iSTAGING) consortium were analysed. Multiple sets of SPARE scores were investigated, in order to probe imaging signatures of certain clinically or molecularly defined sub-cohorts. First, a subset of clinical Alzheimer’s disease patients (n = 718) and age- and sex-matched CN adults (n = 718) were selected based purely on clinical diagnoses to train SPARE-BA1 (regression of age using CN individuals) and SPARE-AD1 (classification of CN versus Alzheimer’s disease) models. Second, analogous groups were selected based on clinical and molecular markers to train SPARE-BA2 and SPARE-AD2 models: amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease continuum group (n = 718; consisting of amyloid-positive Alzheimer’s disease, amyloid-positive MCI, amyloid- and tau-positive CN individuals) and amyloid-negative CN group (n = 718). Finally, the combined group of the Alzheimer’s disease continuum and amyloid-negative CN individuals was used to train SPARE-BA3 model, with the intention to estimate brain age regardless of Alzheimer’s disease-related brain changes. The disentangled SPARE models, SPARE-AD2 and SPARE-BA3, derived brain patterns that were more specific to the two types of brain changes. The correlation between the SPARE-BA Gap (SPARE-BA minus chronological age) and SPARE-AD was significantly reduced after the decoupling (r = 0.56–0.06). The correlation of disentangled SPARE-AD was non-inferior to amyloid- and tau-related measurements and to the number of APOE ε4 alleles but was lower to Alzheimer’s disease-related psychometric test scores, suggesting the contribution of advanced brain ageing to the latter. The disentangled SPARE-BA was consistently less correlated with Alzheimer’s disease-related clinical, molecular and genetic variables. By employing conservative molecular diagnoses and introducing Alzheimer’s disease continuum cases to the SPARE-BA model training, we achieved more dissociable neuroanatomical biomarkers of typical brain ageing and Alzheimer’s disease.

Hwang, Gyujoon↗