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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Solar plants, environmental degradation and local socioeconomic contexts: A case study in a Mediterranean country

Photovoltaic plants developed on rural land are becoming a common infrastructure in the Mediterranean region and may contribute, at least indirectly, to various forms of environmental degradation including landscape deterioration, land take, soil degradation and loss in traditional cropland and biodiversity. Our study illustrates a procedure estimating (i) the extension of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields at the municipal scale in Italy and (ii) inferring the socioeconomic profile of the Italian municipalities experiencing different expansion rates of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields over the last years (2007-2014). The procedure was based on diachronic information derived from official data sources integrated into a geographical decision support system. Our results indicate that the surface area of ground-mounted photovoltaic fields into rural land grew continuously in Italy between 2007 and 2014 with positive and increasing growth rates observed during 2007-2011 and positive but slightly decreasing growth rates over 2012-2014, as a result of market saturation and policies containing the diffusion of solar plants on greenfields. We found important differences in the density of ground-mounted solar plants between northern and southern Italian municipalities. We identified accessible rural municipalities in southern Italy with intermediate population density and large availability of non-urban land as the most exposed to the diffusion of solar plants on greenfields in the last decade. Our approach is a promising tool to estimate changes in the use of land driven by the expansion of photovoltaic fields into rural land.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Real-time kinematic (RTK) Drone-collected Data and Processed Models of Port Arthur Coastal Neighborhood and Pleasure Island Golf Course, June 2024

The Southeast Texas Urban Integrated field lab’s Co-design team captured aerial photos in the Port Arthur Coastal Neighborhood Community and the Golf Course on Pleasure Island, Texas, in June 2024. Aerial photos taken were through autonomous flight, and models were processed through the DroneDeploy engine. All aerial photos are in .JPG format and contained in zipped files for each area. The processed data package includes 3D models, geospatial data, mappings, and point clouds. Please be aware that DTM, Elevation toolbox, Point Cloud, and Orthomosaic use EPSG: 6588. And 3D Model uses EPSG: 3857.For using these data:- The Adobe Suite gives you great software to open .Tif files.- You can use LASUtility (Windows), ESRI ArcGIS Pro (Windows), or Blaze3D (Windows, Linux) to open a LAS file and view the data it contains.- Open an .OBJ file with a large number of free and commercial applications. Some examples include Microsoft 3D Builder, Apple Preview, Blender, and Autodesk.- You may use ArcGIS, Merkaartor, Blender (with the Google Earth Importer plug-in), Global Mapper, and Marble to open .KML files.- The .tfw world file is a text file used to georeference the GeoTIFF raster images, like the orthomosaic and the DSM. You need suitable software like ArcView to open a .TFW file.This dataset provides researchers with sufficient geometric data and the status quo of the land surface at the locations mentioned above. This dataset will support researchers' decision-making processes under uncertainties.

2D mapping↗

Data summary for the evaluation of potential surface collapse at the BRISTOL underground nuclear event

This report provides data for the evaluation of potential surface collapse above an underground nuclear event executed in Yucca Flat back in 1991. This work is being done in support of the Source Physics Experiment Program. Safety decisions must be made before a potential surface crater area can be reentered for any work. Our statements on cavity collapse and surface crater formation are provided as input into the safety decision process. They also do not address possible radiation dangers that may be present. LLNL subject matter experts who have been active in the underground testing program at NNSS (formerly NTS) reviewed these data. Both classified and unclassified data are available for review; various amounts of information are accessible, depending on the age of the test. Lack of data can hamper evaluation and introduce uncertainty; we make no attempt to quantify this uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating Contaminant Transport in the Vadose Zone to Support Remedy Decisions at Aqueous-Waste Disposal Sites - 16195

Inorganic contaminants in aqueous waste disposed at land surface have a potential to contaminate groundwater. However, contaminant concentrations are attenuated during transport through the vadose zone. Quantifying contaminant attenuation and the resulting temporal concentration profile of in underlying groundwater is important for assessing the need for, and type of, remediation in the vadose zone and groundwater. An approach was developed for evaluating vadose zone transport and attenuation of aqueous wastes containing inorganic (non-volatile) contaminants that were disposed at land surface (i.e., directly to the ground in cribs, trenches, tile fields, etc.) and their effect on underlying groundwater. The approach provides a structured method to estimate transport of contaminants through the vadose zone and the resulting temporal profile of groundwater contaminant concentrations. A series of numerical model simulations was applied to investigate how different factors affect contaminant transport in the vadose zone and the conditions for which individual factors are important. This analysis demonstrated that, while water flow and contaminant transport can be complex during aqueous-waste disposal, conditions will change over time after disposal ceases and fewer factors will control the contaminant transport rate and resulting temporal profile of groundwater contaminant concentrations. Data verifying that these conditions have been reached can be provided by a few key metrics such as the vertical profile of moisture content, the temporal profile of recharge at the site, and basic information about waste disposal and subsurface properties. Under these conditions, and with information about specific contaminant transport parameters (e.g., for partitioning), estimates of contaminant transport can be made and used to support remedy decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Role of Technical Guidance and Analysis Tools in Remedy Decisions, Implementation, and Closure - 18307

Selection, design, and implementation of environmental remedies are conducted under regulatory frameworks that define the activities, communication, and documentation requirements for the remediation process. However, there are site situations that are not well described in the basic regulatory frameworks, and technical guidance and analysis tools can help facilitate remedy decisions and actions. An example where technical guidance and analysis tools are helpful is in the transition from pump-and-treat (P and T) remediation to monitored natural attenuation (MNA). Standard MNA regulatory guidance does not account for a plume initially controlled by P and T hydraulic conditions rather than natural-gradient conditions. For instance, MNA guidance discusses demonstrating plume stability as a means to evaluate the suitability of MNA. However, plume stability under long-term natural gradient conditions cannot be directly demonstrated while the plume is being contained by a P and T system. Thus, additional guidance is needed to describe other measures that can be used to support transition from P and T to MNA. As an additional example, standard MNA regulatory guidance is not written to provide suitable information for application to vadose-zone contamination; discussion and examples in the regulatory guidance are predominantly for groundwater. Use of contaminant transport assessments is an important component of vadose-zone remedy decisions where technical guidance and analysis tools can facilitate these decisions. For volatile compounds, the assessment may need to also consider flux to the surface and constraints associated with vapor intrusion. Recent technical guidance and associated analysis tools provide sites with approaches to support remedy decisions for the above conditions. In particular, these recent approaches target developing and implementing P and T and soil vapor extraction remediation exit strategies and facilitating assessment and implementation of remedies for coupled vadose-zone/groundwater contamination. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Probabilistic Anthrax Risk Assessment Tool v. 1.0

PARAT is a human health risk assessment tool for quantifying the uncertainty associated with inhalational exposures to Bacillus anthracis (Ba), which is the causative agent for contracting anthrax. The tool has a unique set of aerosol transport algorithms to account for indoor-outdoor deposition, re-aerosolization, building infiltration/exfiltration, and ventilation system effects, all of which are coded to preserve mass. PARAT is currently implemented within a Microsoft Excel application along with the Crystal Ball third-party add-on software that provides a Monte Carlo simulation technique for quantifying uncertainty in model predictions. The tool predicts both air and surface concentrations, as well as the fraction of the population that would contract a lethal dose from exposure to Ba. The tool can be used by decision makers to support Preliminary Remediaiton Goals (PRGs) to guide sampling and decontamination decisions after a release of Ba. Currently the de facto standard for recovery from a Ba release is a sampling protocol whereby all of the surface samples sent to a laboratory have to meet the requirement of “no culturable growth” on the media. This could lead to some very costly cleanups, as was evidenced following the 2001 anthrax letter attack responses. So PARAT may provide decision makers and risk assessors the ability to negotiate risk-based endpoints for the recovery process.

Knowlton, Robert↗

The use of underground research facilities for the demonstration of safety of geological disposal - 15094

Many countries are progressing towards developing research programmes related to the development of geological disposal facilities and as part of these research programmes many countries have constructed or are planning to construct Underground Research Facilities (URFs). The development of the safety case for geological disposal facilities, which covers both the operational phase and the post-closure phase, is built on the acquisition and integration of all necessary data including data on the natural and engineered barriers, on the facility itself (design), on the operation of the disposal facility, and in the specific case of geological disposal facilities, the conditions at the depth of disposal relevant for both in-situ and waste emplacement states. Taking these conditions into account can make the demonstration of safety more complex and demanding than for near surface disposal facilities. Most if not all of the countries well advanced in the development of geological disposal facilities have also developed underground research facilities to support the decision processes within their disposal facility development programme. Underground Research Facilities play an essential role in the demonstration of safety of geological disposal facilities and a distinction has to be made between data acquired from surface based investigations and boreholes and those data and experiments carried out in-situ. The use of in-situ data contribute to build confidence in the demonstration of safety and contribute to public confidence and acceptance of geological disposal facilities. Further discussion will elaborate on whether to use the URF as part of a future disposal facility or not, with an emphasis on the transposition of data from the experimental site to the disposal site and how this is addressed and validated in the demonstration of safety. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean

Abstract Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long‐term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi‐month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation‐based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment: Modeling Consistency to Support Regulatory Decision Making at Hanford - 17398

Under DOE Order 435.1, 'Radioactive Waste Management', Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC and INTERA, Inc are currently preparing a performance assessment for the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility, a near-surface low-activity waste disposal facility located on the Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. The disposal facility is expected to receive vitrified low-activity waste produced at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, as well as other secondary solid wastes generated during the treatment process. The performance assessment performs the analyses that will be relied upon to receive the Disposal Authorization Statement, establish waste acceptance criteria, modify the RCRA permit for the facility and make a waste-incidental-to-reprocessing determination for the vitrified tank waste. In January 2006 in the case State of Washington v. Bodman (Civil No. 2:03-cv-05018-AAM), DOE, the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) and the State of Washington Attorney General's office reached a settlement agreement in Ecology's claim regarding off-site waste shipments to Hanford and the adequacy of modeling in the environmental impact statement. In response to the agreement, the DOE Office of Environmental Management set a policy to establish a consistent use of commercially available and public domain software for a vadose zone and groundwater model platform to support regulatory decisions at Hanford. In October 2012, the Associate Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management released a memorandum to the manager of the Richland Operation Office directing how future environmental modeling activities to support regulatory decision making on the Hanford Site would be undertaken to be consistent with the 2006 settlement agreement. The preparation of the performance assessment must meet DOE Order 435.1 requirements and the additional direction provided by DOE. This paper will identify the approach taken to comply with the requirements in the 2012 memorandum. The paper will describe how environmental modeling performed for the 2017 Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment was planned in a phased approach and how the current modeling is tied to the analyses that supported the decisions made in the environmental impact statement published in 2012. Additionally, the selection and qualification of the software selected to perform modeling activities for the performance assessment will be described. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Possible Superconductivity with a Bogoliubov Fermi Surface in a Lightly Doped Kagome U(1) Spin Liquid

Whether the doped t-J model on the Kagome lattice supports exotic superconductivity has not been decisively answered. In this paper, we propose a new class of variational states for this model and perform large-scale variational Monte Carlo simulation on it. The proposed variational states are parameterized by the SU(2)-gauge-rotation angles, as the SU(2)-gauge structure hidden in the Gutzwiller-projected mean-field ansatz for the undoped model is broken upon doping. These variational doped states smoothly connect to the previously studied U(1) π-flux or 0-flux states, and energy minimization among them yields a chiral noncentrosymmetric nematic superconducting state with 2 × 2-enlarged unit cell. Moreover, this pair density wave state possesses a finite Fermi surface for the Bogoliubov quasi particles. We further study experimentally relevant properties of this intriguing pairing state.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

External perturbation-driven Sabatier breakthrough

The Sabatier reaction (CO 2 + 4H 2 → CH 4 + 2H 2 O) is gaining renewed interest due to its potential to reduce energy carrier storage costs, serve as a feedstock for various organic chemicals, and supply in-situ propellant and life-support resources for long-duration Mars missions. This study demonstrates that combining a modest 2 mA electric field with H 2 feed modulation markedly elevates the CO 2 hydrogenation activity of 2 wt% Ru/CeO 2 catalyst. CO 2 conversion reaches 88 % and 93 % with a CH 4 yield of 83 % and 89 % at 350 °C and 450 °C, respectively. A simple lumped kinetic model reveals that the combined external perturbations not only shift the reaction mechanism but also redistribute key surface-adsorbed intermediates such as hydrogen adatoms and hydrogen-activated CO 2 among the Ru clusters, Ru/CeO 2 interface, and ceria surface. The electric field accelerates the conversion of adsorbed CO 2 to the hydrogenated CO 2 species on Ru and boosts CH 4 formation rate constant, while simultaneously suppresses the formation of undesired, non-reactive surface intermediates. Degree-of-rate-control analysis pinpoints proton migration across the metal-support interface as the decisive lever under these coupled perturbations. In conclusion, these findings establish that rational pairing of metal-support design with well-tuned electric fields and feed oscillations can unlock unprecedented Sabatier rates, guiding the development of next-generation reactors for efficient CO 2 to CH 4 conversion.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

An ensemble method for nuclei detection of overlapping cervical cells

The Pap test is a preventive approach that requires specialized and labor-intensive examination of cytological preparations to track potentially cancerous cells from the internal and external cervix surface. A cytopathologist must analyze many microscopic fields while screening for abnormal cells. Therefore the expectation is that a support decision system could assist with screening the most relevant cells, for example, by identifying sub-cellular abnormalities, such as changes in the nuclei features. Here, this work proposes a computational method for cervical nuclei detection aimed to reduce the workload of cytopathologists.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower (DIVERS-H)

U.S. hydropower plants face potential threats from shrinking water supply, rising demands, and warmer stream temperatures from various causes. Power plant owners, operators, and regulators require new tools to take advantage of and interpret the diverse range of scientific data being produced by both observational methods (for example, satellite, radar, stream gauges) and computer modeling methods that evaluate and predict how earth's dynamic systems (atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea ice) are changing and interacting. Combining datasets such as these with AI-based analyses introduces a novel decision support system to help users anticipate and address potential impacts on power generation stations. This new technology has been named DIVERS-H for "Data Integration and Visualization for Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability in Hydropower." In Phase I, technical feasibility was established with the development and demonstration of all the new technologies that are required. Most notably, DIVERS-H will use new artificial intelligence (AI) methods to capture the complex dynamics of water availability, demand, and environmental changes. In addition, new data management software was developed, and a prototype user interface was implemented as the precursor to a full scale decision support system. With technical research complete, the project focus now shifts to development of a commercial software product to provide users with actionable insight into water availability and the risk/resilience of critical systems at their locations of interest. Although DIVER-H was originally conceived as a tool for hydroelectric power applications, the same underlying technology can be readily applied to other water-consuming systems including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear power plants.

Chaudhary, Aashish [Kitware, Inc., Clifton Park, N↗

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project In Complex Terrain Near the Columbia River Gorge

In 2014 a multi-institution team led by Vaisala, Inc. was selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) to partner with multiple DOE and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) laboratories on a project designed to improve the quality of wind power forecasts in areas of complex terrain. This was the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) funded by DOE and it extended from late 2014 through the middle of 2018. It encompassed an 18-month observational field campaign, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development, extensive analysis of data and NWP output, and the creation of decision support tool algorithms to convey forecast information to end users in the wind industry. WFIP2 focused on improvements to the representation of near-surface and boundary-layer physics in NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Improvements to HRRR, which is run operationally over the continental United States, benefit the wind industry in multiple ways. Forecasts from the operational HRRR are used directly by wind power forecast vendors and the operators of wind plants. In addition, because HRRR is built using the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, improvements to its parameterizations become available to commercial and research institutions using WRF for a myriad of purposes. The geographic area studied by WFIP2 was a region of the Columbia River basin located to the east of the Cascade Mountains between Oregon and Washington. Home to over 6 GW of installed capacity for wind energy production, this area also hosts a variety of atmospheric phenomena either unique to or augmented by complex topography. This makes it an attractive test-bed for the analysis of wind forecast in complex terrain, though results found are should be applicable in any area of topographic complexity. WFIP2 succeeded as a collaborative effort, and while this report focuses on the activities of the team led by Vaisala, the work described here is part of a larger whole. The Vaisala team accomplished a number of specific tasks as described in this report, while also contributing to this larger effort.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs: A review of forecasting approaches

In order to reach Europe's 2020 and 2050 targets in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, geothermal resources will have to contribute substantially to meeting carbon-free energy needs. However, public opinion may prevent future large-scale application of deep geothermal power plants, because induced seismicity is often perceived as an unsolicited and uncontrollable side effect of geothermal development. In the last decade, significant advances were made in the development of models to forecast induced seismicity, which are either based on catalogues of induced seismicity, on the underlying physical processes, or on a hybrid philosophy. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the existing approaches applied to geothermal contexts. This overview will outline the advantages and drawbacks of the different approaches, identify the gaps in our understanding, and describe the needs for geothermal observations. Most of the forecasting approaches focus on the stimulation phase of enhanced geothermal systems which are most prone to generate seismic events. Besides the statistical models suited for real-time applications during reservoir stimulation, the physics-based models have the advantage of considering sub-surface characteristics and estimating the impact of fluid circulation on the reservoir. Thus, to mitigate induced seismicity during major hydraulic stimulations, application of hybrid methods in a decision support system seems the best available solution. So far, however, little attention has been paid to geochemical effects on the failure process and to production periods. Quantitative modelling of induced seismicity still is a challenging and complex matter. Appropriate resources remain to be invested for the scientific community to continue its research and development efforts to successfully forecast induced seismicity in geothermal fields. This is a prerequisite for making this renewable energy resource sustainable and accessible worldwide.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗