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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Fifteen-Year Biochemical Relapse-Free Survival, Cause-Specific Survival, and Overall Survival Following I{sup 125} Prostate Brachytherapy in Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer: Seattle Experience

Purpose: To report 15-year biochemical relapse-free survival (BRFS), cause-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) outcomes of patients treated with I{sup 125} brachytherapy monotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer early in the Seattle experience. Methods and Materials: Two hundred fifteen patients with clinically localized prostate cancer were consecutively treated from 1988 to 1992 with I{sup 125} monotherapy. They were prospectively followed as a tight cohort. They were evaluated for BRFS, CSS, and OS. Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate outcomes by pretreatment clinical prognostic factors. BRFS was analyzed by the Phoenix (nadir + 2 ng/mL) definition. CSS and OS were evaluated by chart review, death certificates, and referring physician follow-up notes. Gleason scoring was performed by general pathologists at a community hospital in Seattle. Time to biochemical failure (BF) was calculated and compared by Kaplan-Meier plots. Results: Fifteen-year BRFS for the entire cohort was 80.4%. BRFS by D'Amico risk group classification cohort analysis was 85.9%, 79.9%, and 62.2% for low, intermediate, and high-risk patients, respectively. Follow-up ranged from 3.6 to 18.4 years; median follow-up was 15.4 years for biochemically free of disease patients. Overall median follow-up was 11.7 years. The median time to BF in those who failed was 5.1 years. CSS was 84%. OS was 37.1%. Average age at time of treatment was 70 years. There was no significant difference in BRFS between low and intermediate risk groups. Conclusion: I{sup 125} monotherapy results in excellent 15-year BRFS and CSS, especially when taking into account the era of treatment effect.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Climate sensitive size-dependent survival in tropical trees

Survival rates of large trees determine forest biomass dynamics. Survival rates of small trees are linked to mechanisms that maintain biodiversity across tropical forests. How species survival rates change with size offers insight into the links between biodiversity and ecosystem function across tropical forests. We tested patterns of size-dependent tree survival across the tropics using data from 1781 species and over two million individuals to assess whether tropical forests can be characterized by size-dependent life-history survival strategies. We found species were classifiable into four “survival modes” that explain life-history variation that shapes carbon-cycling and the relative abundances within forests. Frequently collected functional traits, such as wood density, leaf mass per area, and seed mass, were not generally predictive of species’ survival modes. Mean annual temperature and cumulative water deficit predicted the proportion of biomass of survival modes, indicating important links between evolutionary strategies, climate, and carbon cycling. The application of survival modes in demographic simulations predicted biomass change across forest sites. Our results reveal globally identifiable size-dependent survival strategies that differ across diverse systems in a consistent way. The abundance of survival modes and interaction with climate ultimately determine forest structure, carbon storage in biomass, and future forest trajectories.

Johnson, Daniel J.↗

Evaluation of Behavior and Survival of Fish Exposed to an Axial-Flow Hydrokinetic Turbine

Abstract Previous studies have evaluated fish injury and mortality at hydrokinetic (HK) turbines, but because these studies focused on the impacts of these turbines in situ they were unable to evaluate fish responses to controlled environmental characteristics (e.g., current velocity and light or dark conditions). In this study, we used juvenile hybrid Striped Bass (HSB; Striped Bass Morone saxatilis × White Bass M. chrysops; N = 620), Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss (N = 3,719), and White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus (N = 294) in a series of laboratory experiments to (1) evaluate the ability of fish to avoid entrainment through an axial-flow HK turbine, (2) evaluate fish injury and survival associated with turbine entrainment, and (3) compare the effects of different HK turbines on fish. We found that the probability of turbine entrainment was species dependent and highest for HSB. Across species, current velocity influenced entrainment probability. Among entrained fish, observed survival rates were generally >0.95. The probability of injury for surviving entrained fish only differed from that for nonentrained fish for Rainbow Trout and in general was not >0.20. The probability of injury following entrainment was greater only for HSB, although there were no differences in injury rates between fish that were turbine entrained and those that were not, suggesting that injuries were not turbine related. Taking turbine entrainment, survival, and injury estimates together allowed us to estimate the probability of a randomly selected fish in a population proximate to an HK turbine surviving passage or remaining uninjured after passage. For species and current velocities for which there was a significant effect due to entrainment, we estimated, for instance, that HSB had a survival probability of 0.95 and that Rainbow Trout and White Sturgeon had a >0.99 probability of survival. Similarly, by combining these estimates with those from previous studies, we derived total passage survival probabilities >0.90 but generally approaching 1.00 across different HK turbine types, fish species, and fish lengths. Received May 14, 2014; accepted October 23, 2014

Amaral, Stephen V.↗

Biochemical Control With Radiotherapy Improves Overall Survival in Intermediate and High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have an Estimated 10-Year Overall Survival of >90%

Purpose: To identify subgroups of patients with carcinoma of the prostate treated with radical radiotherapy that have improved overall survival when disease is biochemically controlled. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 1,060 prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy was divided into nine subgroups based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category and estimated 10-year overall survival (eOS 10y) derived from the age adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index. Patients with and without biochemical control were compared with respect to overall survival. Actuarial estimates of overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of overall survival. Results: Median follow-up was 125 months (range, 51-176 months). Only the subgroups with high or intermediate risk disease and an eOS 10y of >90% had a statistically significantly improved overall survival when prostate cancer was biochemically controlled. In all other groups, biochemical control made no significant difference to overall survival. In the subgroup with high-risk disease and eOS 10y >90%, actuarial overall survival was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.5%-94.1%) and 62.1% (95% CI 52.9%-71.3%) for patients with biochemical control and biochemical relapse respectively (p = 0.002). In the intermediate risk group with eOS >90%, actuarial overall survival was 95.3% (95% CI 89.0%-100%) and 79.8% (95% CI 68.0%-91.6%) for biochemically controlled and biochemically relapsed patients (p = 0.033). On multivariate analysis, National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = 0.005), biochemical control (p = 0.033) and eOS 10y (p < 0.001) were statistically significant. Conclusion: Biochemical control translates into improved overall survival in patients with high or intermediate risk disease and an estimated 10-year overall survival of >90%.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Coyote removal, understory cover, and survival of white-tailed deer neonates: Coyote Control and Fawn Survival

Predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) neonates has led to reduced recruitment in many deer populations in southeastern North America. This low recruitment combined with liberal antlerless deer harvest has resulted in declines in some deer populations, and consequently, increased interest in coyote population control. We investigated whether neonate survival increased after coyote removal, whether coyote predation on neonates was additive to other mortality sources, and whether understory vegetation density affected neonate survival. We monitored neonate survival for 4 years prior to (2006–2009) and 3 years during (2010–2012) intensive coyote removal on 3 32-km 2 units on the United States Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site, South Carolina. We removed 474 coyotes (1.63 coyotes/km 2 per unit per year), reducing coyote abundance by 78% from pre-removal levels. The best model (w i = 0.927) describing survival probability among 216 radio-collared neonates included a within-year quadratic time trend variable, date of birth, removal treatment, and a varying removal year effect. Under this model, survival differed between pre-treatment and removal periods and it differed among years during the removal period, being >100% greater than pre-treatment survival (0.228) during the first removal year (0.513), similar to pre-treatment survival during the second removal year (0.202), and intermediate during the third removal year (0.431). Despite an initial increase, the overall effect of coyote removal on neonate survival was modest. Mortality rate attributable to coyote predation was lowest during the first removal year (0.357) when survival was greatest, but the mortality rate from all other causes did not differ between the pretreatment period and any year during removals, indicating that coyote predation acted as an additive source of mortality. Survival probability was not related to vegetation cover, either directly or in interaction with coyote abundance. When the objective is to increase the recruitment of white-tailed deer, we conclude that neither coyote control nor vegetation management appear effective. Reduction of the antlerless harvest may be necessary to meet this objective, but this harvest strategy warrants additional research in Southeastern deer populations.

South Carolina↗

Prostate-Specific Antigen Persistence After Radical Prostatectomy as a Predictive Factor of Clinical Relapse-Free Survival and Overall Survival: 10-Year Data of the ARO 96-02 Trial

Objective: The ARO 96-02 trial primarily compared wait-and-see (WS, arm A) with adjuvant radiation therapy (ART, arm B) in prostate cancer patients who achieved an undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after radical prostatectomy (RP). Here, we report the outcome with up to 12 years of follow-up of patients who retained a post-RP detectable PSA and received salvage radiation therapy (SRT, arm C). Methods and Materials: For the study, 388 patients with pT3-4pN0 prostate cancer with positive or negative surgical margins were recruited. After RP, 307 men achieved an undetectable PSA (arms A + B). In 78 patients the PSA remained above thresholds (median 0.6, range 0.05-5.6 ng/mL). Of the latter, 74 consented to receive 66 Gy to the prostate bed, and SRT was applied at a median of 86 days after RP. Clinical relapse-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and overall survival were determined by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Patients with persisting PSA after RP had higher preoperative PSA values, higher tumor stages, higher Gleason scores, and more positive surgical margins than did patients in arms A + B. For the 74 patients, the 10-year clinical relapse-free survival rate was 63%. Forty-three men had hormone therapy; 12 experienced distant metastases; 23 patients died. Compared with men who did achieve an undetectable PSA, the arm-C patients fared significantly worse, with a 10-year metastasis-free survival of 67% versus 83% and overall survival of 68% versus 84%, respectively. In Cox regression analysis, Gleason score ≥8 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.8), pT ≥ 3c (HR 2.4), and extraprostatic extension ≥2 mm (HR 3.6) were unfavorable risk factors of progression. Conclusions: A persisting PSA after prostatectomy seems to be an important prognosticator of clinical progression for pT3 tumors. It correlates with a higher rate of distant metastases and with worse overall survival. A larger prospective study is required to determine which patient subgroups will benefit most from which treatment option.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A Benchmark Case for the Grid Survivability Analysis

Among current priorities of the power system analysis is the development of metrics and computational tools for the resilience analysis during catastrophic events. New methods and tools are required for such an analysis and they have to be validated prior application to real systems. However, benchmark problems are not readily available due to the analysis novelty. The current paper presents a case based on the IEEE 14-bus system for this purpose. The grid is simplified to a graph with nodes representing generators, loads, and buses. Power inputs are imported from real-time simulations of the IEEE 14-bus system. Outcomes of all possible combinations of failed elements are presented in terms of probabilities for the grid to survive, partially survive, or fail. Only the power grid's ability to withstand adverse events (survivability) is analyzed. The grid's recoverability, the other part of the resilience analysis, is not considered.

power system↗

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Survive the Dust: Dust Mitigation Technology to Enable Survive the Night Capabilities

Introduction: As we return to the Moon, the lunar regolith (i.e. lunar dust) covering the surface will be an obstacle to nominal operations. Accounts from Apollo astronauts and analysis of hardware returned from the surface illustrate just how deleterious the dust can be [1]. During Apollo missions, the lunar dust adhered to hardware mechanically and electrostatically [2]. Surviving the Night: Mitigating the lunar dust will be critical to surviving the night. Going hand-in-hand with other extreme environment considerations, dust mitigation is critical to mission success. Dust Impacts on Other Systems: The lunar dust can have negative implications for power, thermal, mechanisms, and several other systems or sub-systems. For example, Apollo encountered marked degradation of performance in heat rejection systems for the lunar roving vehicle, science packages, and other components because of the lunar dust [1]. For power alone, dust can cause internal clogging for power connectors, heat rejection issues, excessive dust on reflective surfaces, reduced power output for solar arrays, and so on. Dust Mitigation Strategy: In addition to considering technology solutions, it is important for hardware, systems, and or components to have a dust mitigation strategy. At a high level, hardware that will encounter the lunar dust should consider these things when defining a dust mitigation strategy: • Understand Natural Environment • Understand Induced Environment • Understand Tolerance to Dust • Write Dust Requirements • Select Dust Mitigation Solutions • Test Hardware in Dusty Environment More information on each of these can be provided to hardware owners. Dust Mitigation Technology Development: NASA has a series of technologies that may be available for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night. Many of these solutions are leveraging dust mitigation technology development efforts from NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), as well as efforts from ESDMD programs, industry, and academia. Through a series of STMD programs (both internal to NASA and through partnerships), there are several technologies in development as considerations as dust mitigation solutions for hardware. Within STMD, the Game Changing Development Program (GCD) has funded several internal dust mitigation projects including low to mid TRL development, demonstrations on CLPS landers of high TRL solutions, and creating standards and best practices for dust mitigation. STMD dust mitigation efforts also include a series of partnerships for developing technologies and advancing the state of dust mitigation at NASA. This includes the Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), Small Business Innovation Research, Early Stage Innovations (ESI), Space Technology Research Grants (STRG), Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities (ACOs) and Tipping Points (TPs), and Challenges and Crowdsourcing, among others. There are also a series of dust mitigation solutions that have been widely used terrestrially, or during Apollo. In recent years, several studies have produced more data on the efficacy of these potential solutions in the lunar environment. Dust Mitigation Solutions: Dust mitigation solutions generally fall into four categories: • Dust Tolerant Mechanisms • Passive Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Active Dust Mitigation Capabilities • Dust Measurement Capabilities There are a series of solutions that may prove beneficial for hardware that needs to survive the lunar night, including new technology development as well as proven, terrestrial solutions. This presentation will discuss in more detail what some of these solutions are for payloads going to the surface. References: [1] J. R. Gaier, NASA/TM—2005-213610, The Effects of Lunar Dust on EVA Systems During the Apollo Missions [2] T. J. Stubbs, et al. Impact of Dust on Lunar Exploration, 2005

dust mitigation↗

A Validated Prediction Model for Overall Survival From Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Toward Survival Prediction for Individual Patients

Purpose: Although patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are homogeneous according to the TNM staging system, they form a heterogeneous group, which is reflected in the survival outcome. The increasing amount of information for an individual patient and the growing number of treatment options facilitate personalized treatment, but they also complicate treatment decision making. Decision support systems (DSS), which provide individualized prognostic information, can overcome this but are currently lacking. A DSS for stage III NSCLC requires the development and integration of multiple models. The current study takes the first step in this process by developing and validating a model that can provide physicians with a survival probability for an individual NSCLC patient. Methods and Materials: Data from 548 patients with stage III NSCLC were available to enable the development of a prediction model, using stratified Cox regression. Variables were selected by using a bootstrap procedure. Performance of the model was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally and on 2 external data sets (n=174 and n=130). Results: The final multivariate model, stratified for treatment, consisted of age, gender, World Health Organization performance status, overall treatment time, equivalent radiation dose, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The bootstrapped c statistic was 0.62. The model could identify risk groups in external data sets. Nomograms were constructed to predict an individual patient's survival probability ( (www.predictcancer.org)). The data set can be downloaded at (https://www.cancerdata.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2015.02.048). Conclusions: The prediction model for overall survival of patients with stage III NSCLC highlights the importance of combining patient, clinical, and treatment variables. Nomograms were developed and validated. This tool could be used as a first building block for a decision support system.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Fission product release and survivability of UN-kernel LWR TRISO fuel

A thermomechanical assessment of the LWR application of TRISO fuel with UN kernels was performed. Fission product release under operational and transient temperature conditions was determined by extrapolation from fission product recoil calculations and limited data from irradiated UN pellets. Both fission recoil and diffusive release were considered and internal particle pressures computed for both 650 and 800 um diameter kernels as a function of buffer layer thickness. These pressures were used in conjunction with a finite element program to compute the radial and tangential stresses generated within a TRISO particle undergoing burnup. Creep and swelling of the inner and outer pyrolytic carbon layers were included in the analyses. A measure of reliability of the TRISO particle was obtained by computing the probability of survival of the SiC barrier layer and the maximum tensile stress generated in the pyrolytic carbon layers from internal pressure and thermomechanics of the layers. These reliability estimates were obtained as functions of the kernel diameter, buffer layer thickness, and pyrolytic carbon layer thickness. The value of the probability of survival at the end of irradiation was inversely proportional to the maximum pressure.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Survival function analysis of planet size distribution with Gaia Data Release 2 updates

Applying the survival function analysis to the planet radius distribution of the Kepler confirmed/candidate planets, we have identified two natural divisions of planet radius at 4 Earth radii (R ⊕ ) and 10 R ⊕ . These divisions place constraints on planet formation and interior structure model. The division at 4 R ⊕ separates small exoplanets from large exoplanets above. When combined with the recently discovered radius gap at 2 R ⊕ , it supports the treatment of planets in between 2 and 4 R ⊕ as a separate group, likely water worlds. For planets around solar-type FGK main-sequence stars, we argue that 2 R ⊕ is the separation between water-poor and water-rich planets, and 4 R ⊕ is the separation between gas-poor and gas-rich planets. Here, we confirm the slope of the survival function in between 4 and 10 R ⊕ to be shallower compared to either ends, indicating a relative paucity of planets in between 4 and 10 R ⊕ , namely the sub-Saturnian desert there. We name them transitional planets, as they form a bridge between the gas-poor small planets and gas giants. Accordingly, we propose the following classification scheme: (<2 R ⊕ ) rocky planets, (2–4 R ⊕ ) water worlds, (4–10 R ⊕ ) transitional planets, and (>10 R ⊕ ) gas giants.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study: Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) (Task Final Report)

The Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) task was one of several tasks for the Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study. For this task, a juvenile fish passage and survival study was conducted at HAHD from March 10, 2024 through June 27, 2024 for arrays in the HAHD Reservoir and Green River, and through July 9, 2024 for the arrays in the Duwamish River. Fish releases occurred over four times from March through May. Active tag (acoustic telemetry) technology was used to provide biological baseline information for the passage and survival of juvenile Puget Sound (PS) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Results will be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform the engineering design of the new fish passage facility (FPF) at HAHD. However, hatchery sub-yearling PS Chinook salmon of the appropriate size for tag implantation during the study period (> 95 mm in fork length, Geist et al. 2018) were unavailable. Therefore, yearling Coho salmon (O. kisutch) were used as a surrogate species for this acoustic telemetry study.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The RBE-LET relationship for rodent intestinal crypt cell survival, testes weight loss, and multicellular spheroid cell survival after heavy-ion irradiation

This report presents data for survival of mouse intestinal crypt cells, mouse testes weight loss as an indicator of survival of spermatogonial stem cells, and survival of rat 9L spheroid cells after irradiation in the plateau region of unmodified particle beams ranging in mass from 4He to 139La. The LET values range from 1.6 to 953 keV/microns. These studies examine the RBE-LET relationship for two normal tissues and for an in vitro tissue model, multicellular spheroids. When the RBE values are plotted as a function of LET, the resulting curve is characterized by a region in which RBE increases with LET, a peak RBE at an LET value of 100 keV/microns, and a region of decreasing RBE at LETs greater than 100 keV/microns. Inactivation cross sections (sigma) for these three biological systems have been calculated from the exponential terminal slope of the dose-response relationship for each ion. For this determination the dose is expressed as particle fluence and the parameter sigma indicates effect per particle. A plot of sigma versus LET shows that the curve for testes weight loss is shifted to the left, indicating greater radiosensitivity at lower LETs than for crypt cell and spheroid cell survival. The curves for cross section versus LET for all three model systems show similar characteristics with a relatively linear portion below 100 keV/microns and a region of lessened slope in the LET range above 100 keV/microns for testes and spheroids. The data indicate that the effectiveness per particle increases as a function of LET and, to a limited extent, Z, at LET values greater than 100 keV/microns. Previously published results for spread Bragg peaks are also summarized, and they suggest that RBE is dependent on both the LET and the Z of the particle.

Non-NASA Center↗