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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Transition from susceptible-infected to susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics in a susceptible-cleric-zombie-recovered active matter model

The susceptible-infected (SI) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models provide two distinct representations of epidemic evolution, distinguished by whether or not the number of susceptibles always drops to zero at long times. Here, in this study, we introduce a new active matter epidemic model, the “susceptible-cleric-zombie-recovered” (SCZR) model, in which spontaneous recovery is absent but zombies can recover with probability γ via interaction with a cleric. Upon colliding with a zombie, both susceptibles and clerics enter the zombie state with probability β and α, respectively. By changing the initial fraction of clerics or their healing ability rate γ, we can tune the SCZR model between SI dynamics, in which no susceptibles or clerics remain at long times, and SIR dynamics, in which a finite number of clerics and susceptibles survive at long times. The model is relevant to certain real world diseases such as HIV where spontaneous recovery is impossible but where medical interventions by a limited number of caregivers can reduce or eliminate the spread of infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of riverbed magnetic susceptibility for mapping biogeochemical hot spots in groundwater‐impacted rivers

Abstract Redox hot spots occurring as metal‐rich anoxic groundwater discharges through oxic wetland and river sediments commonly result in the formation of iron (Fe) oxide precipitates. These redox‐sensitive precipitates influence the release of nutrients and metals to surface water and can act as ‘contaminant sponges’ by absorbing toxic compounds. We explore the feasibility of a non‐invasive, high‐resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) technique to efficiently map the spatial variations of magnetic Fe oxide precipitates in the shallow bed of three rivers impacted by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory analyses on Mashpee River (MA, USA) sediments demonstrate the sensitivity of MS to sediment Fe concentrations. Field surveys in the Mashpee and Quashnet rivers (MA, USA) reveal several discrete high MS zones, which are associated with likely anoxic groundwater discharge as evaluated by riverbed temperature, vertical head gradient, and groundwater chemistry measurements. In the East River (CO, USA), widespread cobbles/rocks exhibit high background MS from geological ferrimagnetic minerals, thereby obscuring the relatively small enhancement of MS from groundwater induced Fe oxide precipitates. Our study suggests that, in settings with low geological sources of magnetic minerals such as lowland rivers and wetlands, MS may serve as a complementary tool to temperature methods for efficiently mapping Fe oxide accumulation zones due to anoxic groundwater discharges that may function as biogeochemical hot spots and water quality control points in gaining systems.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Relaxation Cracking in 347H Stainless Steel Arc Welds: Susceptibility Evaluation of Heat-Affected Zone

Stress relaxation cracking (SRC) is considered one of the major failure mechanisms for 347H stainless steel welds at elevated service temperatures or during post weld heat treatment (PWHT), especially within the heat-affected zone (HAZ). This work focuses on the characterization of SRC susceptibility within 347H physically simulated arc welded HAZ at elevated temperatures. A four-step SRC thermomechanical test in combination with finite element modeling (FEM) of the welding and testing processes is developed to establish a susceptibility map for HAZ. The test first runs a thermal cycle with three different peak temperatures (1335, 1275, and 1150 °C) to duplicate representative HAZ subzone microstructures, followed by time-to-failure examination under a variety of pre-stress (260–600 MPa) and pre-strain conditions (0.03–0.19) as a function of reheat temperatures between 750 and 1050 °C. With the aid of FEM, SRC susceptibility maps are generated to identify the threshold stress, plastic strain, and creep strain as a function of test temperature. It was found out that HAZ subzone with a lower peak temperature (1150 °C) appears to be slightly less susceptible to SRC than the other two subzones that experienced higher peak temperatures. Generally, time-to-fracture reduces with increasing initially applied stress and strain for all test temperatures. The pre-stress thresholds decrease from about 500 to 330 MPa as the testing temperature increases from 800 to 1050 °C, while the corresponding initial plastic strain thresholds reduces from 0.15 to 0.06. The SRC susceptibility was also evaluated through the Larson–Miller Parameter (LMP) analysis as a function of plastic strain, initial stress and starting stress upon reaching the testing temperature, respectively. The 1050 °C test with a high pre-applied strain (0.1) exhibits an extremely short time to failure (t = 3 s) that lies outside the general trend in LMP analysis. Additionally, it was identified that a plastic strain above 0.07 is identified to significantly reduce the bulk creep strain tolerance to fracture and therefore increases SRC susceptibility. Hardness measurement and fractography analysis indicated that the strain aging of niobium carbonitrides and other potential phases in conjunction with intergranular precipitates contributes to an increase in microhardness and increased intergranular cracking susceptibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proteomics reveals pathways linked to septoria canker resistance and susceptibility in Populus trichocarpa

A major threat to forest ecosystems and plantation forestry is the introduction of a non-native pathogen. Among non-domesticated populations with relatively high levels of genetic diversity, a measurable range of susceptibility to resistance can be expected. Identifying genetic determinants of resistant and susceptible individuals can inform the development of new strategies to engineer disease resistance. Here we describe pathogen-induced changes in the proteome of Populus trichocarpa stem tissue in response to Sphaerulia musiva (Septoria canker). This hemibiotrophic fungal pathogen causes stem canker disease in susceptible poplar genotypes. Proteomics analyses were performed on stem tissue harvested across 0-, 12-, 24- and 48-h post-inoculation with Septoria from three genotypes including one resistant (BESC-22) and two susceptible [BESC-801; Nisqually-1 (NQ-1)]. In total, 11,897 Populus proteins at FDR <0.01 were identified across all time points and genotypes. Analysis of protein abundances between genotypes revealed that the resistant poplar genotype (BESC-22) mounts a rapid and sustained defense response involving pattern recognition receptors, calcium signaling proteins, SAR inducers, transcriptional regulators, resistance proteins, and proteins involved with the hypersensitive response. One susceptible genotype (BESC-801) had a downregulated and delayed defense response whereas the second susceptible genotype (NQ-1) lacked a distinct pattern. Overall, the proteome-wide and protein-specific trends suggest that responses to the Septoria canker infection are genotype-specific for the naïve host, Populus trichocarpa .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of magnetic susceptibility and magnetic field strength on porosity estimates determined from low-field nuclear magnetic resonance

The presence of materials with high magnetic susceptibility are known to have an impact on 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements and in laboratory data this often results in poor estimates of porosity from NMR data. To quantify and understand the cause of the poor NMR porosity estimations, in this laboratory study, we examine the effect of magnetic susceptibility, NMR measurement parameters, and NMR instrument design on NMR measurements. Data were collected with two instruments, each with a different Larmor frequency (2 MHz and 485 kHz), on water-saturated unconsolidated sediments with magnetic susceptibility values ranging from 3.6 × 10 -6 to 7020 × 10 -6 SI. The results show that for materials with low magnetic susceptibility (<378 × 10 -6 SI), the gravimetric porosity is accurately predicted from the NMR measurements. For the samples with high magnetic susceptibility (>987 × 10 -6 SI) the gravimetric porosity is poorly predicted from the 2 MHz NMR measurements made at all echo times (from 0.2 to 3.0 ms). In contrast, the gravimetric porosity is more accurately predicted at an echo time of 0.2 ms for measurements made using the 485 kHz instrument, although at larger echo times (>1.0 ms), the porosity estimate becomes poor. The 485 kHz NMR instrument has non-zero internal magnetic field gradients, similar to those found in borehole instruments, in contrast to the 2 MHz NMR instrument, which has a homogeneous applied magnetic field. Finally, we conclude that differences is the magnetic field strength and higher magnetic field inhomogeneities in the 485 kHz NMR instrument contribute to a reduction of the impact of inhomogeneities in the magnetic field caused by materials with high magnetic susceptibility, allowing for improved porosity estimation. These results indicate that NMR measurements collected at short echo times in low, inhomogeneous static fields, e.g., borehole instruments, may provide accurate estimates of porosity in water saturated sediments, even in the presence of magnetic minerals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and demonstration of a methodology to evaluate high burnup fuel susceptibility to pulverization under a loss of coolant transient

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver is to increase pressurized water reactor cycle lengths to 24 months, reducing the number of fresh fuel assemblies and core design constraints, thereby making core energy utilization more efficient. However, fuel pellet fragmentation and pulverization, termed high burnup fuel fragmentation (HBFF), has been observed in the high burnup (>90 GWd/MTU) Halden loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) integral test series. The issue gained attention when fuel fragmentation and pulverization were also observed closer to the current US regulatory limit during the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored out-of-core integral test at Studsvik Nuclear in early 2011. This led to NRC concerns with potential changes to fuel and core designs relative to fuel pellet pulverization. In a letter to the NRC Commissioners, the staff specifically identified a need to “…define the boundary of safe operation for key fuel design and operating parameters,” stating that “the staff is challenged to evaluate the acceptability of future fuel design advancements and fuel utilization changes.” As such, it can be concluded that HBFF and potential dispersal into the reactor coolant system introduces additional complications in light-water reactor (LWR) fuel safety evaluations. However, it is not clear how much fuel will be susceptible to HBFF; nor has there been a methodology developed to evaluate fuel susceptibility to HBFF. To that end, this paper proposes an analysis methodology to assess fuel susceptibility to HBFF during LOCA scenarios. The work presented here uses the BISON fuel performance code to evaluate a representative pressurized water reactor fuel rod exposed to a rod average burnup of 75 GWd/MTU. Sensitivity studies investigated the impact of the peak cladding temperature, transient fission gas released, and pre-transient fission gas release on cladding ballooning and burst timing. Subsequently, a methodology to assess fuel susceptibility to HBFF will be developed based on experimental data published in the open literature. The methodology will then be demonstrated by calculating the mass of fuel susceptibility to HBFF. The BISON results conclude that increasing peak cladding temperature drastically decreased time to failure, and decreased balloon size both of which have been confirmed experimentally. Additionally, the effect of pre-transient and transient fission gas release affected cladding balloon size and burst timing. Finally, fuel susceptibility to HBFF significantly decreased as a function of peak cladding temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Albedo susceptibility of northeastern Pacific stratocumulus: the role of covarying meteorological conditions

Abstract. Quantification of the radiative adjustment of marine low clouds to aerosol perturbations, regionally and globally, remains the largest source of uncertainty in assessing current and future climate. One of the important steps towards quantifying the role of aerosol in modifying cloud radiative properties is to quantify the susceptibility of cloud albedo and liquid water path (LWP) to perturbations in cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We use 10 years of spaceborne observations from the polar-orbiting Aqua satellite to quantify the albedo susceptibility of marine low clouds to Nd perturbations over the northeast (NE) Pacific stratocumulus (Sc) region. Mutual information analysis reveals a dominating control of cloud state (e.g., LWP and Nd) on low-cloud albedo susceptibility, relative to the meteorological states that drive these cloud states. Through a LWP–Nd space decomposition of albedo susceptibilities, we show clear separation among susceptibility regimes (brightening or darkening), consistent with previously established mechanisms through which aerosol modulates cloud properties. These regimes include (i) thin non-precipitating clouds (LWP < 55 g m−2) that exhibit brightening (occurring 37 % of the time), corresponding to the Twomey effect; (ii) thicker non-precipitating clouds, corresponding to entrainment-driven negative LWP adjustments that manifest as a darkening regime (36 % of the time); and (iii) another brightening regime (22 % of the time) consisting of mostly precipitating clouds, corresponding to precipitation-suppression LWP positive adjustments. Overall, we find an annual-mean regional low-cloud brightening potential of 20.8±2.68 W m−2 ln(Nd)−1, despite an overall negative LWP adjustment for non-precipitating marine stratocumulus, owing to the high occurrence of the Twomey–brightening regime. Over the NE Pacific, clear seasonal covariabilities among meteorological factors related to the large-scale circulation are found to play an important role in grouping conditions favorable for each susceptibility regime. When considering the covarying meteorological conditions, our results indicate that for the northeastern Pacific stratocumulus, clouds that exhibit the strongest brightening potential occur most frequently within shallow marine boundary layers over a cool ocean surface with a stable atmosphere and a dry free troposphere above. Clouds that exhibit a darkening potential associated with negative LWP adjustments occur most frequently within deep marine boundary layers in which the atmospheric instability and the ocean surface are not strong and warm enough to produce frequent precipitation. Cloud brightening associated with warm-rain suppression is found to preferably occur either under unstable atmospheric conditions or humid free-tropospheric conditions that co-occur with a warm ocean surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warm boundary-layer cloud properties and cloud susceptibilities product at the ARM ENA observatory

Cloud liquid water path, albedo, and cloud fraction susceptibilities for marine warm boundary-layer clouds are quantified using the Meteosat retrieved cloud microphysical properties at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory in the Azores. The Meteosat cloud retrievals are based on the methods applied by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, which are specifically tailored to support the ARM user facility over the ARM ground-based observation sites (enavisstpx2dm11minnisX1.c1). Cloud susceptibility is quantified as the slope between cloud properties and Nd within a 1-degree-by-1-degree grid box at each satellite time step using a least-square regression. To reduce uncertainties associated with the adiabatic assumption in the Nd retrieval, for each cloud object, we exclude cloudy pixels at the cloud edge, defined as those adjacent to cloud-free pixels. To minimize influence of cloud heterogeneity and co-variability on the retrieved cloud susceptibility, cloud properties are averaged to 0.25-degree resolution using the 3-km pixel-level retrieval, and the 1-degree cloud susceptibilities are estimated using the smoothed data. Cloud type classification is applied to distinct cloud object, labeling all contiguous cloudy pixels. Marine warm boundary-layer clouds are defined as clouds with 90% of cloud tops below 3km, and Meteosat retrieved cloud phase as liquid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Susceptibility of new soil organic carbon to mineralization during dry-wet cycling in soils from contrasting ends of a precipitation gradient

The persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is influenced by soil physicochemical properties, organic matter quality, and climatic conditions that govern its vulnerability to microbial activity. We compared the susceptibility of newly formed SOC to mineralization in two soils (Andosols) that developed under contrasting precipitation regimes. Soil from the high rainfall region (‘high rain ’) had higher SOC and lower iron concentrations than soils exposed to less rainfall (‘low rain ’). We amended soils with 13 C-labeled carbohydrates and measured the amount of substrate-derived SO 13 C mineralized when exposed to dry-wet cycling following months-long incubations. We hypothesized that susceptibility would differ due to iron content and mineralogy, initial SOC, substrate solubility (cellulose versus glucose amendment), and microbial substrate use efficiency (SUE). We found that SO 13 C was less susceptible to dry-wet cycling when more 13 C was assimilated into microbial biomass and co-localized with mineral surfaces than when co-localized with existing organo-mineral surfaces, according to microscale NanoSIMS imaging. Considerably less SO 13 C was susceptible to mineralization in the ferrihydrite-rich (low SOC) low rain soil than the leached (high SOC) high rain soil when C was added as either glucose (7.3-fold less C mineralized) or cellulose (15.2-fold less). Additionally, the SUE of glucose was comparable to cellulose in low rain soil where SO 13 C was less water soluble and coprecipitated with ferrihydrite, and used half as efficiently as cellulose in high rain soil. Our results show that the susceptibility of newly formed SOC to mineralization is modified by the effects of bioavailability on microbial metabolism and the availability of mineral surfaces for forming new organo-mineral complexes.

21 NanoSIMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Review of Factors Affecting the Susceptibility of Juvenile Salmonids to Avian Predation

Abstract We reviewed studies of piscivorous colonial waterbird predation on juvenile salmonids to synthesize current knowledge of factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predators. Specifically, we examined peer-reviewed publications and reports from academic, governmental, and nongovernmental agencies to identify commonalities and differences in susceptibility of salmonids to avian predation, with a focus on mark–recovery studies in the Columbia River basin. Factors hypothesized to influence salmonid susceptibility to avian predation were grouped into four general categories: (1) salmonid species and populations, (2) environmental factors, (3) prey density, predator density, and migration timing, and (4) prey characteristics. Our review focused on predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia, double-crested cormorants Nannopterum auritum, and gull species Larus spp. as these are the most well-studied avian predators of salmonids. Results indicated that predator–prey interactions varied across salmonid species and populations and species of avian predator. Inferences across studies supported multiple hypotheses regarding predator–prey dynamics, including environmental factors that influence prey exposure to predators (e.g., river flows, turbidity, alternative prey), variation in predator and prey abundances, predator characteristics (e.g., foraging behavior, colony location), and prey characteristics (e.g., fish length, condition). Mark–recovery studies of avian predation on fish populations have greatly improved our understanding of the factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predation, the relative contributions of abiotic and biotic factors to predation susceptibility, and the extent to which avian predation affects fish survival and the viability of prey populations. Future studies that jointly model predation and survival and the factors affecting those processes will further broaden our understanding of predator–prey dynamics and directly evaluate the effects of predation on prey population dynamics.

Hostetter, Nathan J. (ORCID:0000000160752157)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Baloxavir Resistance-Associated Substitutions on Influenza Virus Growth and Drug Susceptibility

Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a recently FDA-approved influenza virus polymerase acidic (PA) endonuclease inhibitor. Several PA substitutions have been demonstrated to confer reduced susceptibility to baloxavir; however, their impacts on measurements of antiviral drug susceptibility and replication capacity when present as a fraction of the viral population have not been established. We generated recombinant A/California/04/09 (H1N1)-like viruses (IAV) with PA I38L, I38T, or E199D substitutions and B/Victoria/504/2000-like virus (IBV) with PA I38T. These substitutions reduced baloxavir susceptibility by 15.3-, 72.3-, 5.4-, and 54.5-fold, respectively, when tested in normal human bronchial epithelial (NHBE) cells. We then assessed the replication kinetics, polymerase activity, and baloxavir susceptibility of the wild-type:mutant (WT:MUT) virus mixtures in NHBE cells. The percentage of MUT relative to WT virus necessary to detect reduced baloxavir susceptibility in phenotypic assays ranged from 10% (IBV I38T) to 92% (IAV E199D). While I38T did not alter IAV replication kinetics or polymerase activity, IAV PA I38L and E199D MUTs and the IBV PA I38T MUT exhibited reduced replication levels and significantly altered polymerase activity. Differences in replication were detectable when the MUTs comprised ≥90%, ≥90%, or ≥75% of the population, respectively. Here, droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS) analyses showed that WT viruses generally outcompeted the respective MUTs after multiple replication cycles and serial passaging in NHBE cells when initial mixtures contained ≥50% of the WT viruses; however, we also identified potential compensatory substitutions (IAV PA D394N and IBV PA E329G) that emerged and appeared to improve the replication capacity of baloxavir-resistant virus in cell culture.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Burnup LOCA Burst Susceptibility BISON Analysis in PWRs and BWRs

Accurately assessing high-burnup fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) is essential for understanding fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) risks across the US light-water reactor fleet. This work updates previous Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program multiphysics LOCA analyses for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) and a boiling water reactor (BWR) by incorporating recent model and material property advancements in the BISON fuel performance code, including a high-burnup structure (HBS) model, revised cladding burst criteria, and updated thermal–mechanical correlations. This update was needed to support ongoing industry initiatives and upcoming regulatory changes. Full-core, rod-resolved operating histories generated using Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis (VERA) and system-level LOCA conditions obtained from TRACE were applied to statistically representative rod samples in BISON to evaluate burst behavior and FFRD susceptibility. These calculations used two cladding burst correlations and three fuel pulverization models so that the predictions of these models could be compared. The updated PWR simulations show markedly improved numerical stability as the number of crashed simulations decreased by 95% compared to the previous study, and hence higher confidence in results. The updated PWR simulations predicted cladding bursts exclusively among once-burned, high-power rods, with two different cladding burst models identifying the same burst-susceptible population. Resulting FFRD susceptibility estimates are significantly reduced compared with earlier studies, driven by cooler predicted fuel and plenum temperatures, lower hoop strains, and reduced fission gas release in the updated models. In contrast, none of the BWR rods were predicted to burst under either burst criterion, reaffirming minimal BWR FFRD susceptibility even with updated HBS and material models. Comparisons between the PWR and BWR end-of-cycle predictions are made. Comparison with prior work highlights significant shifts in PWR fuel performance metrics and confirmation of earlier BWR conclusions. Overall, the updated results underscore the importance of having high-resolution detailed modeling capability and continuously integrating evolving material models and physics into high-resolution multiphysics simulations. The unified assessment presented here strengthens confidence in predicting high-burnup LOCA behavior by improving agreement between different cladding burst correlations. These results also provide an improved foundation for future BISON model development, FFRD susceptibility calculations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determination of Location-Specific Solidification Cracking Susceptibility for a Mixed Dissimilar Alloy Processed by Wire-Arc Additive Manufacturing

Solidification cracking is a major obstacle when joining dissimilar alloys using additive manufacturing. In this work, location-specific solidification cracking susceptibility has been investigated using an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach for a graded alloy formed by mixing P91 steel and Inconel 740H superalloy. An alloy mixture of 26 wt.% P91 and 74 wt.% Inconel 740H, with high configurational and total entropy, was fabricated using wire arc additive manufacturing. Microstructure characterization revealed intergranular solidification cracks in the FCC matrix, which increased in length along with the enrichment of Nb (~27 to 56 wt.%) and Cu (~87 wt.%) in the middle and top regions. DICTRA simulations to model location-specific solidification cracking susceptibility showed that the top region with the highest cooling rate (270 K/s) has the highest solidification cracking susceptibility in comparison with the middle and bottom regions. This is in good agreement with the experimentally observed varying crack length. From Scheil simulations, it was deduced that enrichment of Nb and Cu affected the solidification range as high as ~77%, in comparison with the matrix composition. The overall solidification cracking susceptibility and freezing range was highest for the 26 wt.% P91 alloy amongst the mixed compositions between P91 steel and 740H superalloy, proving that solidification characteristics play a major role in alloy design for additive manufacturing.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning and Geospatial-Sentinel-1 SAR Integration for Enhanced Early Warning Systems

This study presents a comprehensive framework for flood susceptibility mapping by integrating geospatial factors with both statistical and machine learning models. Thirteen Flood-related factors, including DEM, slope, TWI, NDVI, etc., are extracted as features of models, and historical flood data derived from Sentinel-1 SAR from 2018 to 2023 are used as the target variables of the models. These datasets are analyzed using a frequency-based statistical model and three machine learning models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CNN, to generate flood susceptibility maps. The performance of each model is evaluated through AUC; and SHAP scores are separately generated for Machine learning (ML) models to explain each feature contribution in the ML model. The generated susceptibility maps are validated by high-flood-risk locations monitored by flood sensors, BLE inundation models, and flood-prone areas suggested by the Local Community Task Force. The results indicate that the XGBoost model outperforms all other models, with an AUC of 0.92 and demonstrates the highest alignment with recommended high-flood-risk locations, while the frequency-based statistical model showed the weakest performance with an AUC of 0.65. SHAP value graphs highlight the elevation, slope, and TWI as the most influential features across all models. The susceptibility maps generated by the machine learning model show strong agreement with the BLE map and high-flood-risk areas identified by the local Community Task Force.

Google Engine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics analysis of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility–Part 1: Overview and code coupling strategies

The US nuclear energy industry is investigating strategies to increase the reactor operating cycle to 24 months, resulting in peak rod average burnups exceeding the current limit of 62 GWd/tU. This increase will in turn increase the probability of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) in the event of a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). This effort couples multiple codes to (1) evaluate full-core power histories for high-burnup fuel operated in a Westinghouse 4-loop pressurized water reactor, (2) model a postulated large-break LOCA, and (3) calculate the mass of fuel susceptible to FFRD. This paper, the first of three describing the work, focuses on code coupling strategies and FFRD susceptibility calculations. The other two companion papers focus on code-specific designs and analyses. Three codes were used in this work. VERA was used to calculate steady-state power histories, TRACE was used to model the transient thermal hydraulics, and BISON was used to model steady-state and transient fuel performance and cladding failure. Herein, several fuel pulverization models were used to calculate FFRD susceptibility in failed rods. Depending on the cladding failure/fuel pulverization model combination, the core-wide FFRD susceptibility during the postulated LOCA range from 0 to over 5,000 kg.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗