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DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving sustainable tropical forest management with voluntary carbon markets

Due to a rapidly changing climate, voluntary carbon markets are gaining momentum and should be leveraged to improve and expand tropical sustainable forest management plans, limiting carbon emissions and enhancing critical carbon sinks. By sequestering more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem — ~1 Pg C yr –1 — tropical forests provide crucial natural climate solutions and opportunities in the evolving voluntary carbon market. Here, we argue that some issues with the current sustainable management of tropical forests can be addressed using carbon-focused sustainable forest management (SFM + C) to leverage financial resources for tropical forest carbon storage and sequestration. We suggest an extended harvest cycle in SFM + C and calculate an associated potential increase in aboveground carbon stocks of commercial timber of 1.26 Mg C ha –1 after each cycle in the Brazilian Amazon. The additional carbon storage due to a longer harvest cycle can generate carbon credits worth 152.6 (SD 9.2) US dollars per hectare in 40 years. Considering an average cost of 180 BRL per m3 of commercial timber delivered to the sawmill, an SFM + C plan with a 40-year cycle could generate 28.7% (SD 2.5) more profit than 35-year cycles by combining timber and carbon revenues. A robust carbon price could incentivize the further extension of harvest cycles, providing a monetary return that offsets the opportunity cost intrinsic to harvesting under longer cycles. Lastly, we highlight research needs to support tropical SFM + C, which can be part of a global collective effort to limit global warming to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the effects of carbon payments and forest owner cooperatives on carbon storage and revenue in Pacific Northwest forestlands

The forestlands of the Pacific Northwest store a significant amount of carbon, provide wildlife habitat, generate revenue for forestland owners, and provide for sustainable generation of forest products. Promoting forest carbon storage is increasingly recognized as a key management objective to mitigate climate change. We developed an agent-based model to examine the effectiveness of current land management practices in sustaining forest carbon storage and revenue flows, and the utility of market-based carbon payments in improving carbon storage while also improving revenue generation in the Pacific Northwest. We find that while market based incentives can improve both forest carbon storage and revenue, they are limited in their benefit to small forest owners. Our results highlight the crucial need for additional policy interventions to reduce barriers to market access for small private owners and ensure sustainable forest management in this region. We further show that a forest owners’ cooperative, which aggregates small owners to reduce the costs of participating in a carbon market, can help overcome these barriers and result in both greater carbon storage and a more equitable benefit from carbon payments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Plant a Trillion Trees Campaign to Reduce Global Warming – Fleshing Out the Concept

The campaign to plant a trillion trees provided an easily understood approach to reduce the threat of global warming. However, focusing on trees does not consider that a maturing forest releases carbon (C) from dying trees offsetting C intake from growth of other trees, and results in only a one-time carbon storage benefit. Under sustainable management that harvests before forest growth slows down, forest C is transferred to wood products that substitute for fossil fuel (FF)- intensive products, reducing the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions with every harvest. Sustainably managed forests maintain growth by replanting (or regenerating), sustaining the C stored in products, as well as avoiding FF-intensive product emissions with every harvest. This paper addresses the question: Could planting more trees significantly reduce atmospheric CO 2 ; and if so, how? Survey data from many wood-producing mills show life cycle inventory (LCI) data on C that has been tracked through every stage of processing for many different wood products specific to each United States (USA) supply region, as well as C displacement measurements when substituting wood for FFintensive products. Results show that more and better-managed forest lands and more efficient product uses provide significant opportunities to reduce CO 2 emissions, especially in highly productive forest regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aboveground Biomass Estimation Using NISAR Simulated ALOS-2 Time Series Data

Aboveground biomass (AGB) is a critical parameter to better understand the global carbon cycle and to develop sustainable forest management. However, a large uncertainty prevails. L-band SAR data have demonstrated strong potential to accurately retrieve AGB over low-biomass regions (<100 Mg ha-1). The upcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar mission will collect data at L- and S-band over earth’s landmass with a repeat period of 12 days, allowing us to have ample data for monitoring biomass and its dynamics. One of the key science requirements of the mission is to produce annual AGB maps at 1-ha resolution with RMS accuracy of 20 Mg/ha for 80 percentage of area over low-biomass regions in Calibration/Validation sites. The NISAR biomass algorithm will generate AGB maps based on the parameterization of semi-empirical model along with NISAR time-series dual pol data (HH and HV). To calibrate and validate the model for mission requirements, the mission will use reference estimates of AGB produced from ground inventory plots and airborne LiDAR data collected over selected sites distributed across different global ecoregions. This paper presents the initial results of the calibration/validation of the NISAR AGB retrieval algorithm over the Lenoir Landing (LENO), Alabama, USA site using NISAR simulated ALOS-2 time series data. Five multi-temporal dual-pol HH and HV NISAR Simulated ALOS 2 data collections were used as input to assess the performance of the model. The model AGB retrieval results shows that the NISAR model was able to achieve RMS accuracy within 20 Mg/ha.

Ramachandran, Naveen [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, C↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought

Abstract Structural diversity is an emerging dimension of biodiversity that accounts for size variations in organs among individuals in a community. Previous studies show significant effects of structural diversity on forest growth, but its effects on forest mortality are not known, particularly at a large scale. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified structural diversity using stem structural diversity (SSD) based on both tree diameter and height. We obtained U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from over 2400 plots across southcentral U.S. forests that have suffered a recent drought. Using data from multiple sampling times, we calculated SSD and compared the relative importance of SSD, species diversity, functional diversity and other stand attributes in determining tree mortalities caused by fire, insects and diseases. We also used FIRETEC, a physics‐based fire model, to test the effect of SSD on canopy consumption by fire. Our results showed that (1) SSD was positively associated with tree mortalities caused by all three disturbances; (2) species richness was negatively associated with insect‐ and disease‐caused mortalities; (3) functional diversity was negatively associated with fire‐ and disease‐caused mortalities and (4) more phylogenetically related species had more similar mortality rates by insect and disease but not fire. Moreover, the FIRETEC model showed increasing canopy consumption by fire in stands with greater SSD. Together, the different tree mortalities during drought associated with SSD more consistently than the other biodiversity metrics were evaluated. Synthesis . Our results suggest that SSD could be considered in modelling forest dynamics and planning management to sustain forest health under disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generating multiple benefits from forests by producing value-added products: Lessons from the Pacific Northwestern US

This paper asks what conditions are needed to counteract a declining forest industry. The mobilization of supply chains for new value-added forest products and services can be supported by programs designed to simultaneously achieve multiple goals related to health, climate, and rural economic development. But several challenges are identified that underscore the need to stack benefits and incentives to achieve muti-sectoral goals. Based on a case study in Washington state, we find opportunities and constraints for sourcing forest products are determined by the local and regional conditions such as availability of working forests and their residues, socioeconomic conditions, workforce availability, transportation options, and perceptions about social license of the new industry. Key recommendations are the need for (1) a consistent demand and resilient supply chain for the new product; (2) a stable, supportive policy and assessment framework; (3) timely, transparent, and trusted monitoring and reporting of benefits and costs; (4) fostering engagement and buy-in from stakeholders; (5) a context-specific evaluation of opportunities and constraints; and (6) agreement on the goals of sustainable forestry. A diversity of products and markets builds a more resilient forest-based economy by mitigating impacts of disruptions in any individual market, adding value to biomass, increasing employment, and reducing forest risks to fire, insects, and disease.

Bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced and satellite-derived approaches to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temporal nitrogen dynamics in intensively managed loblolly pine early stand development

Forest production is strongly dependent on nutrient uptake; however, sustainable management of intensively managed plantations requires an improved understanding of this relationship when fertilization occurs frequently across short rotations. Here, we studied temporal nitrogen (N) concentration ([N]) and content (Nc) dynamics under different silvicultural practices (herbicide, fertilization, and planting density) throughout early loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stand development (5 years). We describe relationships of [N] and Nc of different stand components (foliage, branches, stem, roots, and competing vegetation) with carbon and biomass. Our results demonstrate that [N] of perennial loblolly tissues do not respond to silvicultural practices and progressively decrease through development. While foliar [N] was most responsive to resource availability, it was not consistent across time. Controlling competing vegetation was crucial to promote the use of site resources by the crop tree and increased loblolly Nc by >500%. However, increased N uptake and expedited growth is dependent upon fertilization early in stand development. At age 5, herbicide plus reduced and full fertilization rates exhibited similar aboveground Nc, which was 32% higher than with herbicide only. Increasing planting density resulted in increased above- and belowground loblolly Nc; however, increases in Nc were not proportional with increases in planting density. Net primary productivity and N uptake were linearly related, but age/development strongly controlled N use efficiency. Our study helps to understand complex relationships between N, biomass, and silvicultural practices during early stand development and demonstrates that temporal evaluation of nutrient dynamics is crucial to better understand loblolly pine growth, carbon sequestration potential, and to inform sustainable silvicultural practices across short rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Indicator-based Approach to Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (Chapter 12)

Assessing the sustainability of natural resource management choices for agricultural and forest lands requires quantification of potential changes to a set of environmental and socioeconomic indicators selected to characterize reference scenarios relative to projected future scenarios. Correctly framing the questions with local stakeholders is a critical first step in the sustainability assessment, and the questions that can be addressed are often limited by data availability. Selecting and prioritizing indicators with stakeholders to address their needs and concerns improves the likelihood of investment in monitoring and evaluation of those indicators over time. Computational techniques for analyzing interactions between the selected indicators are inherently affected by the scales and formats of the assembled indicator datasets. Data analytics have the potential to improve understanding of the potential synergies and tradeoffs involved with meeting multiple environmental and socioeconomic goals simultaneously, but timely and appropriate indicator datasets are not always available—even in this new era of “big data.” Continued improvements in data science and data analytics are needed to broaden understanding and acceptance of problems and to provide valuable information for natural resource management. Advances in these areas will enable society to design future landscapes that meet multiple objectives, including the provisioning of agricultural and forest resources along with a variety of ecosystem services (e.g., clean water and healthy soils).

Parish, Esther↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of sustainable biomass markets in forest conservation

When properly implemented, the production of bioenergy using wood pellets can play a role in addressing threats related to biodiversity and climate change. Reduction in forest loss and degradation is fostered by the integration of sustainable pellet production with other forest markets and strategies to implement nature-based solutions. Local stakeholders should be engaged to devise management practices appropriate for the location and context. Market incentives for sustainable biomass production help conserve forests.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large CO 2 removal potential of woody debris preservation in managed forests

Limiting climate warming to 1.5 °C requires reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and CO 2 removal. While various CO 2 removal strategies have been explored to achieve global net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and account for legacy emissions, additional exploration is warranted to examine more durable, scalable and sustainable approaches to achieve climate targets. Here, in this study, we show that preserving woody debris in managed forests can remove gigatonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere sustainably based on a carbon cycle analysis using three Earth system models. Woody debris is produced from logging, sawmill wastes and abandoned woody products, and can be preserved in deep soil to lengthen its residence time (a measure of durability) by thousands of years. Preserving annual woody debris production in managed forests has the capacity to remove 769–937 GtCO 2 from the atmosphere cumulatively (10.1–12.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 on average) from 2025 to 2100, if its residence time is lengthened for 100–2,000 years and after 5% CO 2 removal is discounted to account for CO 2 emission due to machine operation for wood debris preservation. This translates to a reduction in global temperatures of 0.35–0.42 °C. Given the large potential, relatively low cost and long durability, future efforts should be focused on establishing large-scale demonstration projects for this technology in a variety of contexts, with rigorous monitoring of CO 2 removal, its co-benefits and side-effects.

Luo, Yiqi [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United State↗

DOE OSTI2020

Framework for assessing land‐management effects on at‐risk species: Example of SE USA wood pellet production and gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus )

Abstract Land‐management choices made for economic and societal gains intrinsically influence landscapes and species that are dependent upon them. We propose a simple analysis framework to examine critical intersections between land‐management choices and the life‐history conditions of selected species of concern, thereby facilitating the identification of mitigation practices that can reduce negative impacts on species at risk. We test the proposed framework through application to gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ), a keystone species that is the focus of conservation efforts across the southeastern region of United States of America, where wood pellets are being produced for bioenergy. Production of these wood pellets for export to Europe and Asia has drastically increased in the past decade, raising concerns about potential harm to biodiversity since many species in the forests sourcing pellet production were already at risk prior to the development of this new commodity. Identifying the mechanisms of potential impacts of wood pellet production on species of concern is essential to establishing meaningful management recommendations that can enhance conservation efforts while supporting sustainable bioenergy. By considering the intersections between life‐history conditions of gopher tortoise and forest‐management practices related to woody biomass extraction for pellet production, we identify several mechanisms by which the wood‐pellet industry might affect this species of concern, both positively and negatively. We then identify mitigation practices that can help offset the potential impacts of logging, thinning, and dead wood removal on gopher tortoise. Our analysis framework may be transferable to other species of concern and land‐management practices across diverse landscapes. This article is categorized under: Bioenergy > Economics and Policy Bioenergy > Climate and Environment

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using stable isotopes to inform water resource management in forested and agricultural ecosystems

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Growth–Mortality Coordination Differs Among Xerophytic Versus Mesophytic Tree Species During Severe Drought

ABSTRACT Forest composition is changing, yet the consequences for terrestrial carbon cycling are unclear. In the eastern United States, water‐demanding “mesophytic” tree species are replacing “xerophytic” oaks (Quercusspp.) and hickories (Caryaspp.), raising concerns that forest productivity will become increasingly sensitive to more frequent and severe drought conditions predicted for the region. However, we have a limited understanding of the extent to which the mortality risk of xerophytes versus mesophytes is coordinated with their growth sensitivity during drought. Here, we evaluated growth and mortality dynamics for 20 abundant eastern United States tree species following a severe drought in the summer of 2012. We synthesized data from ~4500 forest inventory plots and used an approach that quantified relative drought responses between co‐located trees to minimize impacts from environmental heterogeneity. We found that mesophytes were just as likely to perish as co‐occurring xerophytes but were more sensitive to drought in terms of diminished growth. These findings suggest that xerophytic decline is likely to lead to reduced carbon uptake during drought and that management efforts to conserve oak‐hickory stands will be decisive to sustain the carbon mitigation potential of these forests. However, we also found that growth‐mortality relationships differed between functional groups. Among xerophytes, growth and survival during drought were decoupled. Among mesophytes, there was a high degree of coordination, where species that experienced greater mortality also experienced greater growth reductions. Therefore, mesophytes with high growth sensitivity to water deficits are likely to be the most vulnerable to drought‐driven die‐off events moving forward.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗