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GREAT3 results - I. Systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

The study present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by ~1 per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods’ results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measuring galaxy cluster masses with CMB lensing using a Maximum Likelihood estimator: statistical and systematic error budgets for future experiments

We develop a Maximum Likelihood estimator (MLE) to measure the masses of galaxy clusters through the impact of gravitational lensing on the temperature and polarization anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We show that, at low noise levels in temperature, this optimal estimator outperforms the standard quadratic estimator by a factor of two. For polarization, we show that the Stokes Q/U maps can be used instead of the traditional E- and B-mode maps without losing information. We test and quantify the bias in the recovered lensing mass for a comprehensive list of potential systematic errors. Using realistic simulations, we examine the cluster mass uncertainties from CMB-cluster lensing as a function of an experiment’s beam size and noise level. We predict the cluster mass uncertainties will be 3 - 6% for SPT-3G, AdvACT, and Simons Array experiments with 10,000 clusters and less than 1% for the CMB-S4 experiment with a sample containing 100,000 clusters. The mass constraints from CMB polarization are very sensitive to the experimental beam size and map noise level: for a factor of three reduction in either the beam size or noise level, the lensing signal-to-noise improves by roughly a factor of two.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integrated Sachs-Wolfe map reconstruction in the presence of systematic errors

The decay of gravitational potentials in the presence of dark energy leads to an additional, late-time contribution to anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at large angular scales. The imprint of this so-called integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect to the CMB angular power spectrum has been detected and studied in detail, but reconstructing its spatial contributions to the CMB map, which would offer the tantalizing possibility of separating the early- from the late-time contributions to CMB temperature fluctuations, is more challenging. Here, we study the technique for reconstructing the ISW map based on information from galaxy surveys and focus in particular on how its accuracy is impacted by the presence of photometric calibration errors in input galaxy maps, which were previously found to be a dominant contaminant for ISW signal estimation. We find that both including tomographic information from a single survey and using data from multiple, complementary galaxy surveys improve the reconstruction by mitigating the impact of spurious power contributions from calibration errors. A high-fidelity reconstruction further requires one to account for the contribution of calibration errors to the observed galaxy power spectrum in the model used to construct the ISW estimator. Here, we find that if the photometric calibration errors in galaxy surveys can be independently controlled at the level required to obtain unbiased dark energy constraints, then it is possible to reconstruct ISW maps with excellent accuracy using a combination of maps from two galaxy surveys with properties similar to Euclid and SPHEREx.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-D-BRD-07: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Statistical Process Control Methods to Detect Systematic Errors For Routine Electron Energy Verification

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of statistical process control methods to detect systematic errors when using a two dimensional (2D) detector array for routine electron beam energy verification. Methods: Electron beam energy constancy was measured using an aluminum wedge and a 2D diode array on four linear accelerators. Process control limits were established. Measurements were recorded in control charts and compared with both calculated process control limits and TG-142 recommended specification limits. The data was tested for normality, process capability and process acceptability. Additional measurements were recorded while systematic errors were intentionally introduced. Systematic errors included shifts in the alignment of the wedge, incorrect orientation of the wedge, and incorrect array calibration. Results: Control limits calculated for each beam were smaller than the recommended specification limits. Process capability and process acceptability ratios were greater than one in all cases. All data was normally distributed. Shifts in the alignment of the wedge were most apparent for low energies. The smallest shift (0.5 mm) was detectable using process control limits in some cases, while the largest shift (2 mm) was detectable using specification limits in only one case. The wedge orientation tested did not affect the measurements as this did not affect the thickness of aluminum over the detectors of interest. Array calibration dependence varied with energy and selected array calibration. 6 MeV was the least sensitive to array calibration selection while 16 MeV was the most sensitive. Conclusion: Statistical process control methods demonstrated that the data distribution was normally distributed, the process was capable of meeting specifications, and that the process was centered within the specification limits. Though not all systematic errors were distinguishable from random errors, process control limits increased the ability to detect systematic errors using routine measurement of electron beam energy constancy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Evaluating IMRT and VMAT dose accuracy: Practical examples of failure to detect systematic errors when applying a commonly used metric and action levels

Purpose: This study (1) examines a variety of real-world cases where systematic errors were not detected by widely accepted methods for IMRT/VMAT dosimetric accuracy evaluation, and (2) drills-down to identify failure modes and their corresponding means for detection, diagnosis, and mitigation. The primary goal of detailing these case studies is to explore different, more sensitive methods and metrics that could be used more effectively for evaluating accuracy of dose algorithms, delivery systems, and QA devices.Methods: The authors present seven real-world case studies representing a variety of combinations of the treatment planning system (TPS), linac, delivery modality, and systematic error type. These case studies are typical to what might be used as part of an IMRT or VMAT commissioning test suite, varying in complexity. Each case study is analyzed according to TG-119 instructions for gamma passing rates and action levels for per-beam and/or composite plan dosimetric QA. Then, each case study is analyzed in-depth with advanced diagnostic methods (dose profile examination, EPID-based measurements, dose difference pattern analysis, 3D measurement-guided dose reconstruction, and dose grid inspection) and more sensitive metrics (2% local normalization/2 mm DTA and estimated DVH comparisons).Results: For these case studies, the conventional 3%/3 mm gamma passing rates exceeded 99% for IMRT per-beam analyses and ranged from 93.9% to 100% for composite plan dose analysis, well above the TG-119 action levels of 90% and 88%, respectively. However, all cases had systematic errors that were detected only by using advanced diagnostic techniques and more sensitive metrics. The systematic errors caused variable but noteworthy impact, including estimated target dose coverage loss of up to 5.5% and local dose deviations up to 31.5%. Types of errors included TPS model settings, algorithm limitations, and modeling and alignment of QA phantoms in the TPS. Most of the errors were correctable after detection and diagnosis, and the uncorrectable errors provided useful information about system limitations, which is another key element of system commissioning.Conclusions: Many forms of relevant systematic errors can go undetected when the currently prevalent metrics for IMRT/VMAT commissioning are used. If alternative methods and metrics are used instead of (or in addition to) the conventional metrics, these errors are more likely to be detected, and only once they are detected can they be properly diagnosed and rooted out of the system. Removing systematic errors should be a goal not only of commissioning by the end users but also product validation by the manufacturers. For any systematic errors that cannot be removed, detecting and quantifying them is important as it will help the physicist understand the limits of the system and work with the manufacturer on improvements. In summary, IMRT and VMAT commissioning, along with product validation, would benefit from the retirement of the 3%/3 mm passing rates as a primary metric of performance, and the adoption instead of tighter tolerances, more diligent diagnostics, and more thorough analysis.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Reducing systematic error in weak lensing cluster surveys

Weak lensing provides an important route toward collecting samples of clusters of galaxies selected by mass. Subtle systematic errors in image reduction can compromise the power of this technique. We use the B-mode signal to quantify this systematic error and to test methods for reducing this error. We show that two procedures are efficient in suppressing systematic error in the B-mode: (1) refinement of the mosaic CCD warping procedure to conform to absolute celestial coordinates and (2) truncation of the smoothing procedure on a scale of 10'. Application of these procedures reduces the systematic error to 20% of its original amplitude. We provide an analytic expression for the distribution of the highest peaks in noise maps that can be used to estimate the fraction of false peaks in the weak-lensing κ-signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) maps as a function of the detection threshold. Based on this analysis, we select a threshold S/N = 4.56 for identifying an uncontaminated set of weak-lensing peaks in two test fields covering a total area of ∼3 deg{sup 2}. Taken together these fields contain seven peaks above the threshold. Among these, six are probable systems of galaxies and one is a superposition. We confirm the reliability of these peaks with dense redshift surveys, X-ray, and imaging observations. The systematic error reduction procedures we apply are general and can be applied to future large-area weak-lensing surveys. Our high-peak analysis suggests that with an S/N threshold of 4.5, there should be only 2.7 spurious weak-lensing peaks even in an area of 1000 deg{sup 2}, where we expect ∼2000 peaks based on our Subaru fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systematic Error Study for ALICE charged-jet v2 Measurement

We study the treatment of systematic errors in the determination of v 2 for charged jets in √ sNN = 2:76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions by the ALICE Collaboration. Working with the reported values and errors for the 0-5% centrality data we evaluate the Χ 2 according to the formulas given for the statistical and systematic errors, where the latter are separated into correlated and shape contributions. We reproduce both the Χ 2 and p-values relative to a null (zero) result. We then re-cast the systematic errors into an equivalent co-variance matrix and obtain identical results, demonstrating that the two methods are equivalent.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN INTERFEROMETRIC OBSERVATIONS OF THE COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND

We investigate the impact of instrumental systematic errors in interferometric measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra. We simulate interferometric CMB observations to generate mock visibilities and estimate power spectra using the statistically optimal maximum likelihood technique. We define a quadratic error measure to determine allowable levels of systematic error that does not induce power spectrum errors beyond a given tolerance. As an example, in this study we focus on differential pointing errors. The effects of other systematics can be simulated by this pipeline in a straightforward manner. We find that, in order to accurately recover the underlying B-modes for r = 0.01 at 28 < l < 384, Gaussian-distributed pointing errors must be controlled to 0. Degree-Sign 7 root mean square for an interferometer with an antenna configuration similar to QUBIC, in agreement with analytical estimates. Only the statistical uncertainty for 28 < l < 88 would be changed at {approx}10% level. With the same instrumental configuration, we find that the pointing errors would slightly bias the 2{sigma} upper limit of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by {approx}10%. We also show that the impact of pointing errors on the TB and EB measurements is negligibly small.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-T-550: Range Effects in Proton Therapy Caused by Systematic Errors in the Stoichiometric Calibration

Purpose: The procedure for proton treatment planning involves the conversion of the patient's X-ray CT from Hounsfield units into relative stopping powers (RSP), using a stoichiometric calibration curve (Schneider 1996). In clinical practice a 3.5% margin is added to account for the range uncertainty introduced by this process and other errors. RSPs for real tissues are calculated using composition data and the Bethe-Bloch formula (ICRU 1993). The purpose of this work is to investigate the impact that systematic errors in the stoichiometric calibration have on the proton range. Methods: Seven tissue inserts of the Gammex 467 phantom were imaged using our CT scanner. Their known chemical compositions (Watanabe 1999) were then used to calculate the theoretical RSPs, using the same formula as would be used for human tissues in the stoichiometric procedure. The actual RSPs of these inserts were measured using a Bragg peak shift measurement in the proton beam at our institution. Results: The theoretical calculation of the RSP was lower than the measured RSP values, by a mean/max error of - 1.5/-3.6%. For all seven inserts the theoretical approach underestimated the RSP, with errors variable across the range of Hounsfield units. Systematic errors for lung (average of two inserts), adipose and cortical bone were - 3.0/-2.1/-0.5%, respectively. Conclusion: There is a systematic underestimation caused by the theoretical calculation of RSP; a crucial step in the stoichiometric calibration procedure. As such, we propose that proton calibration curves should be based on measured RSPs. Investigations will be made to see if the same systematic errors exist for biological tissues. The impact of these differences on the range of proton beams, for phantoms and patient scenarios, will be investigated. This project was funded equally by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK) and Ion Beam Applications (Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Two-dimensional stitching interferometry for self-calibration of high-order additive systematic errors

Stitching interferometry is performed by collecting interferometric data from overlapped sub-apertures and stitching these data together to provide a full surface map. The propagation of the systematic error in the measured subset data is one of the main error sources in stitching interferometry for accurate reconstruction of the surface topography. In this work, we propose, using the redundancy of the captured subset data, two types of two-dimensional (2D) self-calibration stitching algorithms to overcome this issue by in situ estimating the repeatable high-order additive systematic errors, especially for the application of measuring X-ray mirrors. The first algorithm, called CS short for “Calibrate, and then Stitch”, calibrates the high-order terms of the reference by minimizing the de-tilted discrepancies of the overlapped subsets and then stitches the reference-subtracted subsets. The second algorithm, called SC short for “Stitch, and then Calibrate”, stitches a temporarily result and then calibrates the reference from the de-tilted discrepancies of the measured subsets and the temporarily stitched result. In the implementation of 2D scans in $x$- and y -directions, step randomization is introduced to generate nonuniformly spaced subsets which can diminish the periodic stitching errors commonly observed in evenly spaced subsets. The regularization on low-order terms enables a highly flexible option to add the curvature and twist acquired by another system. Both numerical simulations and experiments are carried out to verify the proposed method. All the results indicate that 2D high-order repeatable additive systematic errors can be retrieved from the 2D redundant overlapped data in stitching interferometry.

42 ENGINEERING↗

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Systematic Errors in measurement of b1

A class of spin observables can be obtained from the relative difference of or asymmetry between cross sections of different spin states of beam or target particles. Such observables have the advantage that the normalization factors needed to calculate absolute cross sections from yields often divide out or cancel to a large degree in constructing asymmetries. However, normalization factors can change with time, giving different normalization factors for different target or beam spin states, leading to systematic errors in asymmetries in addition to those determined from statistics. Rapidly flipping spin orientation, such as what is routinely done with polarized beams, can significantly reduce the impact of these normalization fluctuations and drifts. Target spin orientations typically require minutes to hours to change, versus fractions of a second for beams, making systematic errors for observables based on target spin flips more difficult to control. Such systematic errors from normalization drifts are discussed in the context of the proposed measurement of the deuteron b(1) structure function at Jefferson Lab.

Wood, S A↗

SU-D-BRA-03: Analysis of Systematic Errors with 2D/3D Image Registration for Target Localization and Treatment Delivery in Stereotactic Radiosurgery

Purpose: Determine systematic deviations between 2D/3D and 3D/3D image registrations with six degrees of freedom (6DOF) for various imaging modalities and registration algorithms on the Varian Edge Linac. Methods: The 6DOF systematic errors were assessed by comparing automated 2D/3D (kV/MV vs. CT) with 3D/3D (CBCT vs. CT) image registrations from different imaging pairs, CT slice thicknesses, couch angles, similarity measures, etc., using a Rando head and a pelvic phantom. The 2D/3D image registration accuracy was evaluated at different treatment sites (intra-cranial and extra-cranial) by statistically analyzing 2D/3D pre-treatment verification against 3D/3D localization of 192 Stereotactic Radiosurgery/Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy treatment fractions for 88 patients. Results: The systematic errors of 2D/3D image registration using kV-kV, MV-kV and MV-MV image pairs using 0.8 mm slice thickness CT images were within 0.3 mm and 0.3° for translations and rotations with a 95% confidence interval (CI). No significant difference between 2D/3D and 3D/3D image registrations (P>0.05) was observed for target localization at various CT slice thicknesses ranging from 0.8 to 3 mm. Couch angles (30, 45, 60 degree) did not impact the accuracy of 2D/3D image registration. Using pattern intensity with content image filtering was recommended for 2D/3D image registration to achieve the best accuracy. For the patient study, translational error was within 2 mm and rotational error was within 0.6 degrees in terms of 95% CI for 2D/3D image registration. For intra-cranial sites, means and std. deviations of translational errors were −0.2±0.7, 0.04±0.5, 0.1±0.4 mm for LNG, LAT, VRT directions, respectively. For extra-cranial sites, means and std. deviations of translational errors were - 0.04±1, 0.2±1, 0.1±1 mm for LNG, LAT, VRT directions, respectively. 2D/3D image registration uncertainties for intra-cranial and extra-cranial sites were comparable. Conclusion: The Varian Edge radiosurgery 6DOF-based system, can perform 2D/3D image registration with high accuracy for target localization in image-guided stereotactic radiosurgery. The work was supported by a Research Scholar Grant, RSG-15-137-01-CCE from the American Cancer Society.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Systematic Errors Induced by Dipole Component Change in Quadrupole Beam-Based Alignment Measurements for Circular Accelerators

Beam-based alignment (BBA) for quadrupole magnets is now a well-established process for circular accelerators to steer beam orbit through the magnetic centers such that beam orbit is not disturbed when the gradients of quadrupoles are changed. At some facilities, the centers estimated from BBA techniques are also used as a proxy for steering beam through the centers of nearby nonlinear magnets to minimize degradation of nonlinear dynamics caused by off-centered orbit. The random errors associated with BBA are well known, but very little attention has been paid to the systematic error generated by a dipole component change, or equivalently a shift in the magnetic center, when the quadrupole strength is varied. The analytical formulas for this error and its amplification factor (potentially a few orders of magnitude) with respect to the magnetic center motion have been derived and confirmed with simulations. We address the significance of this error as well as the part that cannot be estimated from the beam-based measurement alone. Finally, the BBA measurements obtained at NSLS-II and their systematic errors on the order of hundreds of microns are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Simplified model of pinhole imaging for quantifying systematic errors in image shape

In this paper, we examine systematic errors in x-ray imaging by pinhole optics for quantifying uncertainties in the measurement of convergence and asymmetry in inertial confinement fusion implosions. We present a quantitative model for the total resolution of a pinhole optic with an imaging detector that more effectively describes the effect of diffraction than models that treat geometry and diffraction as independent. This model can be used to predict loss of shape detail due to imaging across the transition from geometric to diffractive optics. We find that fractional error in observable shapes is proportional to the total resolution element we present and inversely proportional to the length scale of the asymmetry being observed. Finally, we have experimentally validated our results by imaging a single object with differently sized pinholes and with different magnifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Systematic error analysis in the absolute hydrogen gas jet polarimeter at RHIC

The Polarized Atomic Hydrogen Gas Jet Target polarimeter (HJET) is operated at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) since 2004 to measure the absolute polarization of each colliding proton beam. Polarimeter detectors and data acquisition were upgraded in 2015 to increase the solid angle, energy range, and to improve the energy and time resolution. These upgrades along with an improved beam intensity and polarization allowed us to greatly reduce the statistical and systematic errors for the proton polarization measurements in RHIC Runs 15 (E beam = 100 GeV) and 17 (255 GeV). For a typical 8 hour RHIC store, the measured proton beam average polarization was about P beam ~ 55 ± 2.0 stat ± 0.3 syst %. The elastic pp analyzing power, AN(t)~0.04, was determined with a precision of about |δA N (t)|~0.0002 in the momentum transfer squared range 0.001<-t<0.020 GeV 2 . In this paper we present a detailed systematic error analysis of the polarization measurements at HJET. Perspectives of using the HJET based absolute polarimeters in the future Electron Ion Collider (EIC) will be also discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Overview of oxygen opacity experiments at the National Ignition Facility and investigation of potential systematic errors

Experiments to measure oxygen opacity at stellar interior conditions have been performed at the National Ignition Facility in a Discovery Science campaign. These experiments utilize the Opacity-on-NIF platform with a sample comprised of O, Mg, and Si. The spectral data from the Opacity Spectrometer cover the 1000–2000 eV photon energy range showing bound-free continuum absorption from O and line absorption from Mg and Si. DANTE and the Gated X-ray Detector are employed to measure the sample plasma’s temperature and density, respectively. Initial data show lower transmission than expected by theoretical models, raising questions of whether potential background or data uniformity concerns could produce systematic errors in the inferred transmission. Here, we investigate three concerns thought to be important for the oxygen opacity data, including instrumental scattered background, sample self-emission non-uniformity, and backlight continuum non-uniformity. Additionally, we show the effect of a recently developed method to account for 2nd order crystal reflection. The total effect of these concerns on one experiment is found to be small compared to the observed difference between the inferred transmission and a model calculation at the inferred temperature and density. Thus, we conclude that these potential sources of systematic error cannot account for the observed difference, increasing the likelihood of a real effect due to the high temperature and density conditions. However, because this is only a single experiment, we cannot make a firm conclusion. More experiments measuring the opacity and necessary calibrations are needed to assess the reproducibility and uncertainty of this result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗