Technology forecasting for space communication: Executive summary
Technology forecasting was used to examine the possibility of transferring laser and radio frequency communication techniques to space communication.
Source record↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts
The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.
Funaro, Gregory V.↗
Technology forecast and applications for autonomous, intelligent systems
Significant research products which have emerged from the core program of NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) are discussed. The Space Station Thermal Control System, the Space Shuttle Integrated Communications Officer Station, the Launch Processing System, the Expert Scheduling System for Pioneer Venus Spacecraft, a Bayesian classification system, and a spaceborne multiprocessor system are included. The technology trends which led to these results are discussed and future developments in technology are forecasted.
Lum, Henry, Jr.↗
Application of Satellite Frost Forecast Technology to Other Parts of the United States
Thermal infrared data taken from the GOES satellite over a period of several hours was color enhanced by computer according to temperature. The varying temperatures were then used to assist in frost forecasting. Input from Michigan and Pennsylvania to the cold climate mapping project is emphasized in the report of the second year's activities of a two year effort.
Martsolf, J. D.↗
Computer technology forecast study for general aviation
A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.
Seacord, C. L.↗
Application of Satellite Frost Forecast Technology to Other Parts of the United States Phase II: Introduction
The history and status of University of Michigan and University of Pennsylvania involvement in determining if P-model for front prediction used in Florida is applicable to those geographic locations is reviewed. The possibility of using the S-model to develop a satellite front forecast system that can recall the distribution of temperatures during previous freezes from a particular area and bring that cold climate climatology to bear on present forecasts is discussed as well as a proposed GOES satellite downlink system to sectionalize the data used in Florida.
Source record↗
Technology forecasting for space communication
A study was conducted to determine techniques for application to space communication. The subjects considered are as follows: (1) optical communication systems, (2) laser communications for data acquisition networks, (3) spacecraft data rate requirements, (4) telemetry, command, and data handling, (5) spacecraft tracking and data network antenna and preamplifier cost tradeoff study, and (6) spacecraft communication terminal evaluation.
Source record↗
Technology forecasting for space communication. Task one report: Cost and weight tradeoff studies for EOS and TDRS
Weight and cost optimized EOS communication links are determined for 2.25, 7.25, 14.5, 21, and 60 GHz systems and for a 10.6 micron homodyne detection laser system. EOS to ground links are examined for 556, 834, and 1112 km EOS orbits, with ground terminals at the Network Test and Tracking Facility and at Goldstone. Optimized 21 GHz and 10.6 micron links are also examined. For the EOS to Tracking and Data Relay Satellite to ground link, signal-to-noise ratios of the uplink and downlink are also optimized for minimum overall cost or spaceborne weight. Finally, the optimized 21 GHz EOS to ground link is determined for various precipitation rates. All system performance parameters and mission dependent constraints are presented, as are the system cost and weight functional dependencies. The features and capabilities of the computer program to perform the foregoing analyses are described.
Source record↗
OAST system technology planning
The NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology developed a planning model for space technology consisting of a space systems technology model, technology forecasts and technology surveys. The technology model describes candidate space missions through the year 2000 and identifies their technology requirements. The technology surveys and technology forecasts provide, respectively, data on the current status and estimates of the projected status of relevant technologies. These tools are used to further the understanding of the activities and resources required to ensure the timely development of technological capabilities. Technology forecasting in the areas of information systems, spacecraft systems, transportation systems, and power systems are discussed.
Sadin, S. R.↗
Spaceborne sensors (1983-2000 AD): A forecast of technology
A technical review and forecast of space technology as it applies to spaceborne sensors for future NASA missions is presented. A format for categorization of sensor systems covering the entire electromagnetic spectrum, including particles and fields is developed. Major generic sensor systems are related to their subsystems, components, and to basic research and development. General supporting technologies such as cryogenics, optical design, and data processing electronics are addressed where appropriate. The dependence of many classes of instruments on common components, basic R&D and support technologies is also illustrated. A forecast of important system designs and instrument and component performance parameters is provided for the 1983-2000 AD time frame. Some insight into the scientific and applications capabilities and goals of the sensor systems is also given.
Kostiuk, T.↗
Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting
Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact Forecasting method is a normative forecasting technique that allows the designer to quantify the effects of adding new technologies on a given design. This method can be used to assess and identify the necessary technological improvements needed to close the gap that exists between the current design and one that satisfies all constraints imposed on the design. The TIF methodology allows for more design knowledge to be brought to the earlier phases of the design process, making use of tools such as Quality Function Deployments, Morphological Matrices, Response Surface Methodology, and Monte Carlo Simulations.2 This increased knowledge allows for more informed decisions to be made earlier in the design process, resulting in shortened design cycle time. This paper will investigate applying the TIF method, which has been widely used in aircraft applications, to the conceptual design of a hydrocarbon rocket engine. In order to reinstate a manned presence in space, the U.S. must develop an affordable and sustainable launch capability. Hydrocarbon-fueled rockets have drawn interest from numerous major government and commercial entities because they offer a low-cost heavy-lift option that would allow for frequent launches1. However, the development of effective new hydrocarbon rockets would likely require new technologies in order to overcome certain design constraints. The use of advanced design methods, such as the TIF method, enables the designer to identify key areas in need of improvement, allowing one to dial in a proposed technology and assess its impact on the system. Through analyses such as this one, a conceptual design for a hydrocarbon-fueled vehicle that meets all imposed requirements can be achieved.
Stuber, Eric↗
A Delphi forecast of technology in education
The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.
Robinson, B. E.↗
OAST planning model for space systems technology
The NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) planning model for space systems technology is described, and some space technology forecasts of a general nature are reported. Technology forecasts are presented as a span of technology levels; uncertainties in level of commitment to project and in required time are taken into account, with emphasis on differences resulting from high or low commitment. Forecasts are created by combining several types of data, including information on past technology trends, the trends of past predictions, the rate of advancement predicted by experts in the field, and technology forecasts already published.
Sadin, S. R.↗
A forecast of space technology. Part 1: The forecast plan
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
James, J. N.↗
Astrophysics space systems critical technology needs
This paper addresses an independent assessment of space system technology needs for future astrophysics flight programs contained within the NASA Space Systems Technology Model. The critical examination of the system needs for the approximately 30 flight programs in the model are compared to independent technology forecasts and possible technology deficits are discussed. These deficits impact the developments needed for spacecraft propulsion, power, materials, structures, navigation, guidance and control, sensors, communications and data processing. There are also associated impacts upon in-orbit assembly technology and space transportation systems. A number of under-utilized technologies are highlighted which could be exploited to reduce cost and enhance scientific return.
Gartrell, C. F.↗
A view of future technology needs for space transportation
This paper addresses an independent assessment of space transportation requirements within the NASA and Military Space Systems Technology Models. A critical examination is made of the system needs of the various flight elements with the models as compared to independent technology forecasts and possible technology deficiencies are discussed. These deficits impact the requisite developments needed for chemical propulsion, thermal protection systems, fuel cells, guidance, avionics and data processing for both launch vehicles and orbital transfer vehicles. Also addressed are potential alternative propellant technologies and their impact upon transfer vehicle systems. The primary focus of these anticipated technology developments will be to reduce operational costs, expand flexibility, and increase the payload capability of space transportation.
Gartrell, C. F.↗
Report of the Panel on Computer and Information Technology
Aircraft have become more and more dependent on computers (information processing) for improved performance and safety. It is clear that this activity will grow, since information processing technology has advanced by a factor of 10 every 5 years for the past 35 years and will continue to do so. Breakthroughs in device technology, from vacuum tubes through transistors to integrated circuits, contribute to this rapid pace. This progress is nearly matched by similar, though not as dramatic, advances in numerical software and algorithms. Progress has not been easy. Many technical and nontechnical challenges were surmounted. The outlook is for continued growth in capability but will require surmounting new challenges. The technology forecast presented in this report has been developed by extrapolating current trends and assessing the possibilities of several high-risk research topics. In the process, critical problem areas that require research and development emphasis have been identified. The outlook assumes a positive perspective; the projected capabilities are possible by the year 2000, and adequate resources will be made available to achieve them. Computer and information technology forecasts and the potential impacts of this technology on aeronautics are identified. Critical issues and technical challenges underlying the achievement of forecasted performance and benefits are addressed.
Lundstrom, Stephen F.↗
Advanced Interconnect Roadmap For Space Applications
A roadmap giving technology forecasts and recommendations for research direction for advanced electronic interconnection technology for space applications is presented.
interconnection↗