Ecological half-life of radiocesium in white-tailed deer on the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site: What can a half century of field monitoring tell us?
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The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change
The SNC meteorites record relatively recent (less than b.y.) basaltic volcanism on a hydrous planet with a core. This much was known about Mars even before the Viking mission. The SNCs tell that the basalts were unusually low in Al2O3 and, despite overall similarities in major elements, apparently sampled two isotopically distinct regions of Mars: one is relatively depleted in incompatible elements (Nahklite source) with a U-Pb model age of 4.3 b.y. and is probably a portion of the upper Martian mantle, whereas the other is relatively enriched in incompatible elements (Shergottite source) with a 4.5 b.y. U-Pb age and is probably Martian crust assimulated into the mantle-derived Shergottite magma. The SNCs tell that the overall abundances of moderately volatile elements, such as alkalies, are higher on Mars than on earth. Given extensive volcanism and a depleted mantle, the present day absence of a thick atmosphere is more likely due to catastrophic removal of a primordial atmosphere than lack of degassing.
As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, "How do we know these meteorites are from Mars?" This question sets the stage for a three-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer "It's the chemistry of the rock", students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret real data, students realize that the research is an application of basic science concepts they should know, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes. They can understand the results without knowing how to do the research or operate the instruments.
As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, How do we know these meteorites are from Mars? This question sets the stage for a six-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer It s the chemistry of the rock , students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret authentic data, students realize that the research is an application of two basic science concepts taught in the classroom, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes.
Just as actions can have indirect effects on the state of the world, so too can sensing actions have indirect effects on an agent's state of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate "what sensing actions tell us", i.e., what an agent comes to know indirectly from the outcome of a sensing action, given knowledge of its actions and state constraints that hold in the world. To this end, we propose a formalization of the notion of testing within a dialect of the situation calculus that includes knowledge and sensing actions. Realizing this formalization requires addressing the ramification problem for sensing actions. We formalize simple tests as sensing actions. Complex tests are expressed in the logic programming language Golog. We examine what it means to perform a test, and how the outcome of a test affects an agent's state of knowledge. Finally, we propose automated reasoning techniques for test generation and complex-test verification, under certain restrictions. The work presented in this paper is relevant to a number of application domains including diagnostic problem solving, natural language understanding, plan recognition, and active vision.
As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, "How do we know these meteorites are from Mars?" This question sets the stage for a six-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer "It's the chemistry of the rock", students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret authentic data, students realize that the research is an application of two basic science concepts taught in the classroom, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.
What Can the Curiosity Rover Tell Us About the Climate of Mars? Assessing the habitability of Gale Crater is the goal of the Curiosity Rover, which has been gathering data since landing on the Red Planet last August. To meet that goal, Curiosity brought with it a suite of instruments to measure the biological potential of the landing site, the geology and chemistry of its surface, and local environmental conditions. Some of these instruments illuminate the nature of the planet fs atmosphere and climate system, both for present day conditions as well as for conditions that existed billions of years ago. For present day conditions, Curiosity has a standard meteorology package that measures pressure, temperature, winds and humidity, plus a sensor the measures the UV flux. These data confirm what we learned from previous missions namely that today Mars is a cold, dry, and barren desert-like planet. For past conditions, however, wetter and probably warmer conditions are indicated. Curiosities cameras reveal gravel beds that must have formed by flowing rivers, and sedimentary deposits of layered sand and mudstones possibly associated with lakes. An ancient aqueous environment is further supported by the presence of sulfate veins coursing through some of the rocks in Yellowknife Bay where Curiosity is planning its first drilling activity. I will discuss these results and their implications in this lecture.
The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.
We characterize primary (shape-change) and secondary (friction) deformation, and associated temperature fields, in metal cutting and forming processes, using in situ imaging and simulation. The experimental configurations enable access to the deformation zones and die contact-interfaces, for measuring deformation, temperature, and frictional drag. Infra-red thermography reveals that the plastic strain-rate field is an excellent proxy for the deformation-induced heat sources. Both spatially confined and diffuse strain-rate fields occur, depending on the initial workpiece deformation state. When the strain rate is confined, as in pre-hardened material, the temperature modeling is much simplified, as the heat source is also now localized. However complex, microstructure-driven deformation modes, like sinuous flow in annealed metals, result in spatially diffuse strain-rate and body heat sources, more challenging to analyze. Furthermore, our unified measurements should be of value for accurately estimating the fraction of plastic dissipation that is converted into heat in large-strain deformation processes.
Knowing how actual evaporation is down-regulated from potential evaporation during periods with soil moisture deficits is one of the greatest challenges towards computing evaporation everywhere on a regular basis. We propose the hypothesis that vegetated landscapes transmit information on soil moisture deficits through its down-regulation of evaporation, which in turn affects the humidification and growth of the planetary boundary layer. To test this hypothesis, here, we examined how the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio between actual and potential evaporation, corresponds with the soil moisture stress index, defined as the relative humidity with a power law dependence on vapor pressure deficit times a parameter, β. We tested the parameterized soil moisture stress index with direct eddy covariance measurements of actual evaporation and computations of potential evaporation based on meteorological conditions, averaged on monthly time steps. The analysis was conducted on a dataset obtained from 144 FLUXNET sites. These sites spanned much of the world's climates and biomes and contained over 5900 months of observations. Observations of the evaporative fraction fit the model of the soil moisture stress index best for semi-arid and arid ecosystems, and least for the humid and wet ecosystems. Consequently, a significant relationship between measurements of the evaporative fraction and soil moisture stress index held for about one-half of the population of sites. Under this condition, the median value of the parameter, β, was 1.41. To investigate the mechanism of this empirical soil moisture stress index, we diagnosed it with a coupled evaporation-planetary boundary layer model. The soil moisture stress index is strongly related to surface resistance, as defined by inverting Penman-Monteith equation. Consequently, this index provides an independent estimate of surface resistance based on easy to measure mean monthly weather conditions like relative humidity and temperature. Thereby, this soil moisture stress index has potential to be applied to weather, climate and biogeochemical models and the interpretation of satellite derived evaporation products, like the one provided by the ECOSTRESS mission.
Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.
Can data science guide researchers toward understanding superconductivity or discover new superconductors? We examine this question in light of a study in this issue of Patterns by Liu et al., who find that the superconducting transition temperature and certain computed energy intervals of the valence band are correlated.
In this paper we address the question whether variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport at mid-latitudes impacts the Arctic Earth system. To that end, we perform coherence analysis on time series of ocean heat transport, AMOC strength, and Arctic climate metrics across a large number of models from the CMIP6 ensemble. We find that, on multidecadal timescales, the majority of CMIP6 models indeed display a statistically significant relationship between AMOC at mid-latitudes (45 °N) and metrics like Arctic surface air temperatures and sea ice. However, our results do not support the narrative that heat transport anomalies at lower latitudes propagate northward toward the Arctic. Instead, our results confirm that variability in meridional ocean heat transport arises in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagates southward and northward.
The mirror twin Higgs model is a candidate for (strongly-interacting) complex dark matter, which mirrors SM interactions with heavier quark masses. A consequence of this model are mirror neutron stars—exotic stars made entirely of mirror matter, which are significantly smaller than neutron stars and electromagnetically dark. This makes mergers of two mirror neutron stars detectable and distinguishable in gravitational wave observations, but can we observationally distinguish between regular neutron stars and those that may contain some mirror matter? This is the question we study in this paper, focusing on two possible realizations of mirror matter coupled to standard model matter within a compact object: (i) mirror matter captured by a neutron star and (ii) mirror neutron star-neutron star coalescences. Regarding (i), here we find that (nonrotating) mirror-matter-admixed neutron stars no longer have a single mass-radius sequence, but rather exist in a two-dimensional mass-radius plane. Regarding (ii), we find that binary systems with mirror neutron stars would span a much wider range of chirp masses and completely different binary Love relations, allowing merger remnants to be very light black holes. The implications of this are that gravitational wave observations with advanced LIGO and Virgo, and x-ray observations with NICER, could detect or constrain the existence of mirror matter through searches with wider model and parameter priors.
Third Lab Director Harold Agnew’s barbecue sauce. Applesauce meatballs from the wife of Nobel laureate Frederick Reines. Two different recipes for chopped liver. And dozens more for soups, salads, meats, breads, desserts, drinks – plus a big taste of the past. What’s Cooking was published in Los Alamos in 1955 and recently discovered in a used bookstore in Santa Fe by Lab physicist Roseanne Cheng. “It was buried and on a forgotten shelf,” Cheng said. “I started flipping through it and I couldn’t believe all the (recognizable) names inside.” The wives of Lab staff, including prominent scientists, and Los Alamos community members had submitted recipes to the Los Alamos Chapter of Hadassah, which compiled them and printed the book.
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