Ecological half-life of radiocesium in white-tailed deer on the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site: What can a half century of field monitoring tell us?
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Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
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Results for “TELL”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States
The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?
The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
What Can Plastic Flow Fields Tell Us About Heat Sources in Deformation Processing?
We characterize primary (shape-change) and secondary (friction) deformation, and associated temperature fields, in metal cutting and forming processes, using in situ imaging and simulation. The experimental configurations enable access to the deformation zones and die contact-interfaces, for measuring deformation, temperature, and frictional drag. Infra-red thermography reveals that the plastic strain-rate field is an excellent proxy for the deformation-induced heat sources. Both spatially confined and diffuse strain-rate fields occur, depending on the initial workpiece deformation state. When the strain rate is confined, as in pre-hardened material, the temperature modeling is much simplified, as the heat source is also now localized. However complex, microstructure-driven deformation modes, like sinuous flow in annealed metals, result in spatially diffuse strain-rate and body heat sources, more challenging to analyze. Furthermore, our unified measurements should be of value for accurately estimating the fraction of plastic dissipation that is converted into heat in large-strain deformation processes.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Atmospheric humidity deficits tell us how soil moisture deficits down-regulate ecosystem evaporation
Knowing how actual evaporation is down-regulated from potential evaporation during periods with soil moisture deficits is one of the greatest challenges towards computing evaporation everywhere on a regular basis. We propose the hypothesis that vegetated landscapes transmit information on soil moisture deficits through its down-regulation of evaporation, which in turn affects the humidification and growth of the planetary boundary layer. To test this hypothesis, here, we examined how the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio between actual and potential evaporation, corresponds with the soil moisture stress index, defined as the relative humidity with a power law dependence on vapor pressure deficit times a parameter, β. We tested the parameterized soil moisture stress index with direct eddy covariance measurements of actual evaporation and computations of potential evaporation based on meteorological conditions, averaged on monthly time steps. The analysis was conducted on a dataset obtained from 144 FLUXNET sites. These sites spanned much of the world's climates and biomes and contained over 5900 months of observations. Observations of the evaporative fraction fit the model of the soil moisture stress index best for semi-arid and arid ecosystems, and least for the humid and wet ecosystems. Consequently, a significant relationship between measurements of the evaporative fraction and soil moisture stress index held for about one-half of the population of sites. Under this condition, the median value of the parameter, β, was 1.41. To investigate the mechanism of this empirical soil moisture stress index, we diagnosed it with a coupled evaporation-planetary boundary layer model. The soil moisture stress index is strongly related to surface resistance, as defined by inverting Penman-Monteith equation. Consequently, this index provides an independent estimate of surface resistance based on easy to measure mean monthly weather conditions like relative humidity and temperature. Thereby, this soil moisture stress index has potential to be applied to weather, climate and biogeochemical models and the interpretation of satellite derived evaporation products, like the one provided by the ECOSTRESS mission.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
What can the GRACE seasonal cycle tell us about lake-aquifer interactions?
Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
What can data science tell us about finding new superconductors?
Can data science guide researchers toward understanding superconductivity or discover new superconductors? We examine this question in light of a study in this issue of Patterns by Liu et al., who find that the superconducting transition temperature and certain computed energy intervals of the valence band are correlated.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
What CMIP6 Models Tell Us About the Impact of AMOC Variability on the Arctic
In this paper we address the question whether variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its associated heat transport at mid-latitudes impacts the Arctic Earth system. To that end, we perform coherence analysis on time series of ocean heat transport, AMOC strength, and Arctic climate metrics across a large number of models from the CMIP6 ensemble. We find that, on multidecadal timescales, the majority of CMIP6 models indeed display a statistically significant relationship between AMOC at mid-latitudes (45 °N) and metrics like Arctic surface air temperatures and sea ice. However, our results do not support the narrative that heat transport anomalies at lower latitudes propagate northward toward the Arctic. Instead, our results confirm that variability in meridional ocean heat transport arises in the subpolar North Atlantic and propagates southward and northward.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dark matter or regular matter in neutron stars? How to tell the difference from the coalescence of compact objects
The mirror twin Higgs model is a candidate for (strongly-interacting) complex dark matter, which mirrors SM interactions with heavier quark masses. A consequence of this model are mirror neutron stars—exotic stars made entirely of mirror matter, which are significantly smaller than neutron stars and electromagnetically dark. This makes mergers of two mirror neutron stars detectable and distinguishable in gravitational wave observations, but can we observationally distinguish between regular neutron stars and those that may contain some mirror matter? This is the question we study in this paper, focusing on two possible realizations of mirror matter coupled to standard model matter within a compact object: (i) mirror matter captured by a neutron star and (ii) mirror neutron star-neutron star coalescences. Regarding (i), here we find that (nonrotating) mirror-matter-admixed neutron stars no longer have a single mass-radius sequence, but rather exist in a two-dimensional mass-radius plane. Regarding (ii), we find that binary systems with mirror neutron stars would span a much wider range of chirp masses and completely different binary Love relations, allowing merger remnants to be very light black holes. The implications of this are that gravitational wave observations with advanced LIGO and Virgo, and x-ray observations with NICER, could detect or constrain the existence of mirror matter through searches with wider model and parameter priors.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Holiday Cooking: Make something from this historic Los Alamos cookbook and tell us about it!
Third Lab Director Harold Agnew’s barbecue sauce. Applesauce meatballs from the wife of Nobel laureate Frederick Reines. Two different recipes for chopped liver. And dozens more for soups, salads, meats, breads, desserts, drinks – plus a big taste of the past. What’s Cooking was published in Los Alamos in 1955 and recently discovered in a used bookstore in Santa Fe by Lab physicist Roseanne Cheng. “It was buried and on a forgotten shelf,” Cheng said. “I started flipping through it and I couldn’t believe all the (recognizable) names inside.” The wives of Lab staff, including prominent scientists, and Los Alamos community members had submitted recipes to the Los Alamos Chapter of Hadassah, which compiled them and printed the book.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Crystal Ball: A Naturalist Perspective of Microbiology: Examples from Methanogenic Archaea
Storytelling has been the primary means of knowledge transfer over human history. The effectiveness and reach of stories are improved when the message is appropriate for the target audience. Oftentimes, the stories that are most well received and recounted are those that have a clear purpose and that are told from a variety of perspectives that touch on the varied interests of the target audience. Whether scientists realize or not, they are accustomed to telling stories of their own scientific discoveries through the preparation of manuscripts, presentations, and lectures. Perhaps less frequently, scientists prepare review articles or book chapters that summarize a body of knowledge on a given subject matter, meant to be more holistic recounts of a body of literature. Yet, by necessity, such summaries are often still narrow in their scope and are told from the perspective of a particular discipline. In other words, interdisciplinary reviews or book chapters tend to be the rarity rather than the norm. Naturalists are scientists that tell stories of organisms and their natural environment within a historical context and from an interdisciplinary perspective. Such stories interweave observations of biological subjects from disparate disciplines into a cohesive story. To this end, the success of naturalists in recounting compelling natural history stories is enhanced when they allow themselves to become vulnerable by knowingly entering a literature base full of unfamiliar ways of observing and describing such subjects. When successful, this approach can broaden the scope of the story, making it of interest to a larger audience and attracting further recounting of that story (e.g., citations). To this end, when we look into our crystal ball, we see a need to tell more holistic stories of microorganisms and their functions from an interdisciplinary, naturalist perspective that combines what is known of their contemporary ecology, physiology, and biochemistry with their evolutionary history thereby placing them within a historical Earth context. With this conviction in mind, we take the opportunity to look back on the natural history of methanogens to identify some of their most profound biochemical innovations and their impact on the trajectory of life and the planet. Our approach was to integrate knowledge from the fields of biochemistry, physiology, ecology, evolution, geochemistry, and atmospheric sciences. We start with the origin of the first autotrophic cells and how this set Earth on a path towards biomass expansion and functional diversification. Next, we discuss the importance of iron and sulfur in methanogen metabolism, and how their innovative ways of accessing these elements allowed for expanded use of iron-sulfur clusters ([Fe-S]) as nanoscale catalysts that power(ed) Earth’s biochemical cycles. We next discuss the origin and evolution of [NiFe]-hydrogenase and how this versatile enzyme chassis was co-opted by a variety of anaerobes and aerobes as the foundation for respiratory complexes capable of sustaining higher forms of life, including humans. Lastly, we discuss the evolution of the enzyme molybdenum nitrogenase, and how this allowed the biosphere to overcome fixed nitrogen limitation by tapping the seemingly endless reserve of atmospheric dinitrogen (N 2 ). In telling these stories, we aimed to generate template(s) to motivate future interdisciplinary natural history studies focused on other organisms and processes. Further, we hope to stimulate scientific discourse and provide impetus to become vulnerable and peruse literature of relevance to understanding the causes and consequences of the evolution of your favorite microorganism or biochemical process.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Size, shade, or shape? The contribution of galaxies of different types to the star formation history of the Universe from SDSS-IV MaNGA
ABSTRACT By fitting stellar populations to the fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey observations of ∼7000 suitably weighted individual galaxies, we reconstruct the star formation history of the Universe, which we find to be in reasonable agreement with previous studies. Dividing the galaxies by their present-day stellar mass, we demonstrate the downsizing phenomenon, whereby the more massive galaxies hosted the most star formation at earlier times. Further dividing the galaxy sample by colour and morphology, we find that a galaxy’s present-day colour tells us more about its historical contribution to the cosmic star formation history than its current morphology. We show that downsizing effects are greatest among galaxies currently in the blue cloud, but that the level of downsizing in galaxies of different morphologies depends quite sensitively on the morphological classification used, due largely to the difficulty in classifying the smaller low-mass galaxies from their ground-based images. Nevertheless, we find agreement that among galaxies with stellar masses $M_{\star } \gt 6\times 10^{9}\, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, downsizing is most significant in spirals. However, there are complicating factors. For example, for more massive galaxies, we find that colour and morphology are predictors of the past star formation over a longer time-scale than in less massive systems. Presumably this effect is reflecting the longer period of evolution required to alter these larger galaxies’ physical properties, but shows that conclusions based on any single property do not tell the full story.
Peterken, Thomas↗
Core collapse supernova gravitational wave emission for progenitors of 9.6, 15, and 25 M ⊙
Here, we present gravitational wave emission predictions based on three core collapse supernova simulations corresponding to three different progenitor masses. The masses span a large range, between 9.6 and 25M ⊙ , are all initially nonrotating, and are of two metallicities: zero and solar. We compute both the temporal evolution of the gravitational wave strains for both the plus and the cross polarizations, as well as their spectral decomposition and characteristic strains. The temporal evolution of our zero metallicity 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is distinct from the temporal evolution of our solar metallicity 15M ⊙ progenitor model and our zero metallicity 25M ⊙ progenitor model. In the former case, the high-frequency gravitational wave emission is largely confined to a brief time period ~75 ms after bounce, whereas in the latter two cases high-frequency emission does not commence until ~125 ms after bounce or later. The excitation mechanisms of the high-frequency emission in all three cases correspond to proto-neutron star convection and accretion onto the proto-neutron star from the convective gain layer above it, with the former playing the dominant role for most of the evolution. The low-frequency emission in all three models exhibits very similar behavior. At frequencies below ~250 Hz, gravitational waves are emitted by neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI). This emission extends throughout the simulations when a gain region is present. In all three models, explosion is observed at ~125, ~500, and ~250 ms after bounce in the 9.6, 15, and 25M ⊙ progenitor models, respectively. At these times, the low-frequency gravitational wave emission is joined by very low-frequency emission, below ~10 Hz. These very low-frequency episodes are the result of explosion and begin at the above designated explosion times in each of our models. Our characteristic strains tell us that, in principle, all three gravitational wave signals would be detectable by current-generation detectors for a supernova at a distance of 10 kpc. However, our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is a significantly weaker source of gravitational waves, with strain amplitudes approximately 5–10 times less than in our other two models. The characteristic strain for this model tells us that such a supernova would be detectable only within a much more narrow frequency range around the maximum sensitivity of today’s detectors. Finally, in our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model, we see very high-frequency gravitational radiation, extending up to ~2000 Hz. This feature results from the interaction of shock- and deleptonization-induced convection with perturbations introduced in the progenitor by nuclear burning during core collapse. While unique to the 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model analyzed here, this very high-frequency emission may, in fact, be a generic feature of the predictions for the gravitational wave emission from all core collapse supernova models when simulations are performed with three-dimensional progenitors.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Bloom filter de-identifier
A bloom filter is a binary data structure that is designed to be memory efficient and able to determine whether an element is present in a set. The bloom filter is a probabilistic data structure. It can tell you whether an element, or set of elements, is likely to exist within a set. It can also tell you whether an element, or set of elements, does not exist within a set. So false positives are probable, but false negatives are not. Our novel approach utilizes the bloom filter to determine how many bigrams (two letter sequence) each value has in common. The resulting metric approximates the relative similarity of two text values.
Bleeker, Amelia↗
Diagnosing Thermonuclear Burn in Fusion Implosions using Ultra-Fast Gas Cherenkov Detectors [Slides]
This presentations addresses these questions. What is fusion and what is ignition? How does LASER driven Inertial Confinement Fusion work? What can we measure and what does it tell us about fusion? How do Gas Cherenkov detectors work and what do they tell us? What are our plans for the future? In brief, the take away messages for this presentation are as follows: DT fusion reaction history provides crucial physics for ICF; gamma reaction history diagnostics are ready to resolve burn width on ignition shots; and GCDs have a lot of potential solving some of the questions related to fusion science.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Time managed virtualization for simulating systems of systems
Software is an integral part of almost every non-trivial system. Yet simulation technologies to understand how software affects system performance lag behind what is available to understand physical behavior. This is not surprising. An abstract model of software tells us what it is supposed to do, not what it actually does. In this respect software is very different from a physical system. Kirchhoff’s laws predict the behavior of an electrical circuit with great precision. The mathematics of fluids do an adequate job of anticipating how a wing will perform in flight. Only the software itself, observed in operation, can tell us how it behaves.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios
This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2024_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.
Climate Change↗