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At least 19 records

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Experimental study of the Si 30 ( He 3 , d ) P 31 reaction and thermonuclear reaction rate of Si 30 ( p , γ ) P 31

Background: Abundance anomalies in some globular clusters, such as the enhancement of potassium and the depletion of magnesium, can be explained in terms of an earlier generation of stars polluting the presently observed ones. It was shown that the potential range of temperatures and densities of the polluting sites depends on the strength of a few critical reaction rates. The 30 Si(p,γ) 31 P reaction has been identified as one of these important reactions. Purpose: The key ingredient for evaluating the thermonuclear 30 Si(p,γ) 31 P reaction rate is the strength of the resonances which, at low energy, are proportional to their proton width. Therefore, the goal of this work is to determine the proton widths of unbound 31 P states. Method: States in 31 P were studied at the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratorium using the one-proton 30 Si( 3 He,d) 31 P transfer reaction. Deuterons were detected with the high resolution one quadrupole three dipoles (Q3D) magnetic spectrometer. Angular distribution and spectroscopic factors were extracted for 27 states, and proton widths and resonance strengths were calculated for the unbound states. Results: Several 31 P unbound states have been observed for the first time in a one-proton transfer reaction. Above 20 MK, the 30 Si(p,γ) 31 P reaction rate is now entirely estimated from the observed properties of 31 P states. The reaction rate uncertainty from all resonances other than the E$^{c.m.}_{r}$ = 149 keV resonance has been reduced down to less than a factor of 2 above that temperature. The unknown spin and parity of the E$^{c.m.}_{r}$ = 149 keV resonance dominates the uncertainty in the rate in the relevant temperature range. Conclusion: Here, the remaining source of uncertainty on the 30 Si(p,γ) 31 P reaction rate comes from the unknown spin and parity of the E$^{c.m.}_{r}$ = 149 keV resonance which can change the reaction rate by a factor of 10 in the temperature range of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity to Thermonuclear Reaction Rates in Modeling the Abundance Anomalies of NGC 2419

Abundance anomalies in globular clusters provide strong evidence for multiple stellar populations within each cluster. These populations are usually interpreted as distinct generations, with the currently observed second-generation stars having formed in part from the ejecta of massive, first-generation “polluter” stars, giving rise to the anomalous abundance patterns. The precise nature of the polluters and their enrichment mechanism are still unclear. Even so, the chemical abundances measured in second-generation stars within the globular cluster NGC 2419 provide insight into this puzzling process. Previous work used Monte Carlo nuclear reaction network calculations to constrain the temperature–density conditions that could reproduce the observed abundances, thereby placing robust limits on the origins of the polluter material. The effect of individual reaction rates on these conditions has not been studied, however. Thus, we perform an exhaustive sensitivity study on the nuclear physics input to determine which reactions have the greatest impact on these predictions. We find that the {sup 30}Si(p,γ){sup 31}P, {sup 37}Ar(p,γ){sup 38}K, {sup 38}Ar(p,γ){sup 39}K, and {sup 39}K(p,γ){sup 40}Ca reactions are all critical in determining the temperature–density conditions, and ultimately, the origins of the polluter material. We conclude with recommendations for future experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear reaction rate of 30 Si($p, γ$) 31 P

Silicon synthesis in high-temperature hydrogen burning environments presents one possible avenue for the study of abundance anomalies in globular clusters. This was suggested in a prior study, which found that the large uncertainties associated with the Si 30 ( p , γ ) P 31 reaction rate preclude a firm understanding of the stellar conditions that give rise to the Mg-K anticorrelation observed in the globular cluster NGC 2419. In an effort to improve the reaction rate, we present new strength measurements of the E r lab = 435 keV and E r lab = 501 keV resonances in Si 30 ( p , γ ) P 31 . For the former, which was previously unobserved, we obtain a resonance strength of ω γ = ( 1.14 ± 0.25 ) × 10 – 4 eV. For the latter, we obtain a value of ω γ = ( 1.88 ± 0.14 ) × 10 – 1 eV, which has a smaller uncertainty compared to previously measured strengths. Based on these results, the thermonuclear reaction rate has been re-evaluated. The impact of the new measurements is to lower the reaction rate by a factor of ≈ 10 at temperatures important to the study of NGC 2419. The rate uncertainty at these temperatures has also been reduced significantly.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear reaction rate of 29 Si(p,γ) 30 P

The thermonuclear rate of the 29 Si(p,γ) 30 P reaction impacts the 29 Si abundance in classical novae. A reliable reaction rate is essential for testing the nova paternity of presolar stardust grains. At present, the fact that no classical nova grains have been unambiguously identified in primitive meteorites among thousands of grains studied is puzzling, considering that classical novae are expected to be prolific producers of dust grains. We investigated the 29 Si + p reaction at center-of-mass energies of 200–420 keV, and present improved values for resonance energies, level excitation energies, resonance strengths, and branching ratios. One new resonance was found at a center-of-mass energy of 303 keV. For an expected resonance at 215 keV, an experimental upper limit could be determined for the strength. We evaluated the level structure near the proton threshold, and present new reaction rates based on all the available experimental information. Our new reaction rates have much reduced uncertainties compared with previous results at temperatures of T ≥ 140 MK, which are most important for classical nova nucleosynthesis. Furthermore, future experiments to improve the reaction rates at lower temperatures are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Determination of Plasma Screening Effects for Thermonuclear Reactions in Laser-generated Plasmas

Due to screening effects, nuclear reactions in astrophysical plasmas may behave differently than in the laboratory. The possibility to determine the magnitude of these screening effects in colliding laser-generated plasmas is investigated theoretically, having as a starting point a proposed experimental setup with two laser beams at the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility. A laser pulse interacting with a solid target produces a plasma through the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration scheme, and this rapidly streaming plasma (ion flow) impacts a secondary plasma created by the interaction of a second laser pulse on a gas jet target. We model this scenario here and calculate the reaction events for the astrophysically relevant reaction {sup 13}C({sup 4}He, n ){sup 16}O. We find that it should be experimentally possible to determine the plasma screening enhancement factor for fusion reactions by detecting the difference in reaction events between two scenarios of ion flow interacting with the plasma target and a simple gas target. This provides a way to evaluate nuclear reaction cross-sections in stellar environments and can significantly advance the field of nuclear astrophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear reactions probed at stellar-core conditions with laser-based inertial-confinement fusion

Stars are giant thermonuclear plasma furnaces that slowly fuse the lighter elements in the universe into heavier elements, releasing energy, and generating the pressure required to prevent collapse. To understand stars, we must rely on nuclear reaction rate data obtained, up to now, under conditions very different from those of stellar cores. Here we show thermonuclear measurements of the 2 H(d, n) 3 He and 3 H(t,2n) 4 He S-factors at a range of densities (1.2–16 g cm –3 ) and temperatures (2.1–5.4 keV) that allow us to test the conditions of the hydrogen-burning phase of main-sequence stars. The relevant conditions are created using inertial-confinement fusion implosions at the National Ignition Facility. Here, our data agree within uncertainty with previous accelerator-based measurements and establish this approach for future experiments to measure other reactions and to test plasma-nuclear effects present in stellar interiors, such as plasma electron screening, directly in the environments where they occur.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bayesian estimation of the $S$ factor and thermonuclear reaction rate for 16 O(p, γ) 17 F

The 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction is the slowest hydrogen-burning process in the CNO mass region. Its thermonuclear rate sensitively impacts predictions of oxygen isotopic ratios in a number of astrophysical sites, including AGB stars. The reaction has been measured several times at low bombarding energies using a variety of techniques. The most recent evaluated experimental rates have a reported uncertainty of about 7.5% below 1 GK. However, the previous rate estimate represents a best guess only and was not based on rigorous statistical methods. We apply a Bayesian model to fit all reliable 16 O(p, γ) 17 F cross section data, and take into account independent contributions of statistical and systematic uncertainties. The nuclear reaction model employed is a single-particle potential model involving a Woods-Saxon potential for generating the radial bound state wave function. The model has three physical parameters, the radius and diffuseness of the Woods-Saxon potential, and the asymptotic normalization coefficients (ANCs) of the final bound state in 17 F. Here, we find that performing the Bayesian S -factor fit using ANCs as scaling parameters has a distinct advantage over adopting spectroscopic factors instead. Based on these results, we present the first statistically rigorous estimation of experimental 16 O(p, γ) 17 F reaction rates, with uncertainties (±4.2%) of about half the previously reported values.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

Critical thermonuclear reactions in classical novae and type I X-ray bursts

The goal of this project was to experimentally constrain the nuclear reaction rates whose uncertainties have the largest impact on models of classical novae and Type-I X-ray bursts. These astrophysical events occur when a white dwarf or neutron star, respectively, accretes hydrogen and helium from a companion star until a thermonuclear runaway ensues. The primary reactions of interest to this project for novae and X-ray bursts are 30 P(ρ,γ) 31 S and 15 O(α,γ) 19 Ne. The project methodology was to develop a new radiation detection system in two phases to measure the low-energy beta-delayed particle emissions of 31 Cl and 20 Mg at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL) in order to constrain these two reaction rates. In particular, a gas-filled charged-particle detector was to be designed, constructed and operated, in concert with the SeGA array.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Thermonuclear Reaction Rates and Primordial Nucleosynthesis

Assuming the best numerical value for the cosmic baryonic density and the existence of three neutrino flavors, standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis is a parameter-free model. It is important to assess if the observed primordial abundances can be reproduced by simulations. Numerous studies have shown that the simulations overpredict the primordial 7 Li abundance by a factor of ≈3 compared to the observations. The discrepancy may be caused by unknown systematics in 7 Li observations, poorly understood depletion of lithium in stars, errors in thermonuclear rates that take part in the lithium and beryllium synthesis, or physics beyond the standard model. Here, we focus on the likelihood of a nuclear physics solution. The status of the key nuclear reaction rates is summarized. Big Bang nucleosynthesis simulations are performed with the most recent reaction rates, and the uncertainties of the predicted abundances are established using a Monte Carlo technique. Correlations between abundances and reaction rates are investigated based on the metric of mutual information. The rates of four reactions impact the primordial 7 Li abundance: 3 He(α,γ) 7 Be, d(p,γ) 3 He, 7 Be(d,p)2α, and 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li. We employ a genetic algorithm to search for simultaneous rate changes in these four reactions that may account for all observed primordial abundances. Furthermore, when the search is performed for reaction rate ranges that are much wider than recently reported uncertainties, no acceptable solutions are found. Based on the currently available evidence, we conclude that it is highly unlikely for the cosmological lithium problem to have a nuclear physics solution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates for Deuterium+Deuterium Reactions

The study of d+d reactions is of major interest since their reaction rates affect the predicted abundances of D, 3 He, and 7 Li. In particular, recent measurements of primordial D/H ratios call for reduced uncertainties in the theoretical abundances predicted by Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). Different authors have studied reactions involved in BBN by incorporating new experimental data and a careful treatment of systematic and probabilistic uncertainties. To analyze the experimental data, Coc et al. used results of ab initio models for the theoretical calculation of the energy dependence of S -factors in conjunction with traditional statistical methods based on χ 2 minimization. Bayesian methods have now spread to many scientific fields and provide numerous advantages in data analysis. Astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates using Bayesian statistics were calculated by Iliadis et al. In this paper we present a similar analysis for two d+d reactions, d(d, n) 3 He and d(d, p) 3 H, that has been translated into a total decrease of the predicted D/H value by 0.16%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

New 26 P( p, γ ) 27 S Thermonuclear Reaction Rate and Its Astrophysical Implications in the rp -process

Accurate nuclear reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S are pivotal for a comprehensive understanding of the rp-process nucleosynthesis path in the region of proton-rich sulfur and phosphorus isotopes. However, large uncertainties still exist in the current rate of 26 P(p, γ) 27 S because of the lack of nuclear mass and energy level structure information for 27 S. We reevaluate this reaction rate using the experimentally constrained 27 S mass, together with the shell model predicted level structure. It is found that the 26 P(p, γ) 27 S reaction rate is dominated by a direct capture reaction mechanism despite the presence of three resonances at E = 1.104, 1.597, and 1.777 MeV above the proton threshold in 27 S. The new rate is overall smaller than the other previous rates from the Hauser–Feshbach statistical model by at least 1 order of magnitude in the temperature range of X-ray burst interest. In addition, we consistently update the photodisintegration rate using the new 27 S mass. The influence of new rates of forward and reverse reaction in the abundances of isotopes produced in the rp-process is explored by postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations. The final abundance ratio of 27 S/ 26 P obtained using the new rates is only 10% of that from the old rate. The abundance flow calculations show that the reaction path 26 P(p, γ) 27 S(β + ,ν) 27 P is not as important as previously thought for producing 27 P. The adoption of the new reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S only reduces the final production of aluminum by 7.1% and has no discernible impact on the yield of other elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗

MODEL ATMOSPHERES FOR X-RAY BURSTING NEUTRON STARS

The hydrogen and helium accreted by X-ray bursting neutron stars is periodically consumed in runaway thermonuclear reactions that cause the entire surface to glow brightly in X-rays for a few seconds. With models of the emission, the mass and radius of the neutron star can be inferred from the observations. By simultaneously probing neutron star masses and radii, X-ray bursts (XRBs) are one of the strongest diagnostics of the nature of matter at extremely high densities. Accurate determinations of these parameters are difficult, however, due to the highly non-ideal nature of the atmospheres where XRBs occur. Observations from X-ray telescopes such as RXTE and NuStar can potentially place strong constraints on nuclear matter once uncertainties in atmosphere models have been reduced. Here we discuss current progress on modeling atmospheres of X-ray bursting neutron stars and some of the challenges still to be overcome.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗