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DOE OSTI2026

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b

We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Third integer resonant extraction transit time simulation studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Third Integer Resonant Extraction Transit Time Simulation Studies

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Analysis of Hydrologic Exchange Flows and Transit Time Distributions in a Large Regulated River

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. High-resolution numerical models were often used to resolve the spatial and temporal variations of exchange flows, which are computationally expensive. In this study, we adopt Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) approaches for deriving reduced order models of hydrologic exchange flows and associated transit time distributions, with integrated field observations (e.g., bathymetry) and hydrodynamic simulation data (e.g., river velocity, depth). The setup allows an improved understanding of the influences of various physical, spatial, and temporal factors on the hydrologic exchange flows and transit times. The predictors also contain those derived using hybrid clustering, leveraging our previous work on river corridor system hydromorphic classification. The machine learning-based predictive models are developed and validated along the Columbia River Corridor, and the results show that the top parameters are the thickness of the top geological formation layer, the flow regime, river velocity, and river depth; the RF and XGB models can achieve 70% to 80% accuracy and therefore are effective alternatives to the computational demanding numerical models of exchange flows and transit time distributions. Each machine learning model with its favorable configuration and setup have been evaluated. The transferability of the models to other river reaches and larger scales, which mostly depends on data availability, is also discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗

DOE OSTI2021

Kepler-90: Giant Transit-timing Variations Reveal a Super-puff

Exoplanet transit-timing variations (TTVs) caused by gravitational forces between planets can be used to determine planetary masses and orbital parameters. Most of the observed TTVs are small and sinusoidal in time, leading to degeneracies between the masses and orbital parameters. Here we report a TTV analysis of Kepler-90g and Kepler-90h, which exhibit large TTVs up to 25 hr. With optimization, we find a unique solution that allows us to constrain all of the orbital parameters. The best-fit masses for Kepler-90g and 90h are 15.0{sub −0.8}{sup +0.9} M {sub ⊕} (Earth mass) and 203{sub −5}{sup +5}M{sub ⊕}, respectively, with Kepler-90g having an unusually low apparent density of 0.15 ± 0.05 g cm{sup −3}. The uniqueness of orbital parameter solution enables a long-term dynamical integration, which reveals that although their periods are close to 2:3 orbital resonance, they are not locked in resonance, and the configuration is stable over billions of years. The dynamical history of the system suggests that planet interactions are able to raise the eccentricities and break the resonant lock after the initial formation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

A search for transit timing variations in the HATS-18 planetary system

ABSTRACT HATS-18 b is a transiting planet with a large mass and a short orbital period, and is one of the best candidates for the detection of orbital decay induced by tidal effects. We present extensive photometry of HATS-18 from which we measure 27 times of mid-transit. Two further transit times were measured from data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and three more taken from the literature. The transit timings were fitted with linear and quadratic ephemerides and an upper limit on orbital decay was determined. This corresponds to a lower limit on the modified stellar tidal quality factor of $Q_\star ^{\, \prime } \gt 10^{5.11 \pm 0.04}$. This is at the cusp of constraining the presence of enhanced tidal dissipation due to internal gravity waves. We also refine the measured physical properties of the HATS-18 system, place upper limits on the masses of third bodies, and compare the relative performance of TESS and the 1.54 m Danish Telescope in measuring transit times for this system.

Southworth, John (ORCID:0000000238073198)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improved Frequency-Domain Steady-State Modeling of the Dual-Active-Bridge Converter Considering Finite ZVS Transition Time Effects

This article presents an improved analytical modeling (IAM) approach for the dual-active-bridge (DAB) converter in the frequency-domain. Specifically, finite transition times are incorporated into the improved modeling that are significant in DAB converters operated at high frequency. The IAM approach is first motivated by comparing traditional frequency-domain modeling against realistic simulation results in LTspice. Next, the IAM approach is mathematically developed in an iterative fashion, where the conventional frequency-domain approach is used as the initialization of the operational behavior of the converter. Subsequent iterations of the IAM algorithm incorporate finite rise- and falltimes of device output capacitances based on detailed switching behavior analyses, which may considerably perturb the desired modulation parameters (i.e., phase shift and zero states). While the initially proposed IAM approach demonstrates advantages over ideal modeling, it is still shown to exhibit errors when applied to device transitions with significant nonlinearity in parasitic output capacitance. To account for this, a three-slope approximation to the switching transition is then motivated and developed, which enables significantly improved steady-state prediction accuracy. Simulation and experimental results confirm unacceptable inaccuracies associated with the conventional frequency-domain modeling across a wide range of operating conditions, alongside enhanced accuracy provided by the proposed modeling approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-sensitivity telecommunication-compatible photoconductive terahertz detection through carrier transit time reduction

We present a telecommunication-compatible photoconductive terahertz detector realized without using any short-carrier-lifetime photoconductor. By utilizing plasmonic contact electrodes on a thin layer of high-mobility photoconductor, the presented detector offers a short transit time for the majority of the photocarriers in the absence of a short-carrier-lifetime photoconductor. Consequently, high-sensitivity terahertz detection is achieved with a record-high signal-to-noise ratio of 122 dB over a 3.6 THz bandwidth under an optical probe power of 10 mW. To achieve such a high sensitivity, the device geometry is chosen to maintain a high resistance and low Johnson Nyquist noise. This design approach can be widely applied for terahertz detection using various semiconductors and optical wavelengths, without being limited by the availability of short-carrier-lifetime photoconductors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

River Dynamics Control Transit Time Distributions and Biogeochemical Reactions in a Dam-Regulated River Corridor

Residence Time Distributions (RTDs) exert an important control on biogeochemical translation in the hydrological systems. Previous tracer studies have revealed that RTDs often followed time-invariant exponential, lognormal, or heavy-tailed RTDs that have power-law behavior for long tails in headwater or low-order streams. However, there is a recognition that RTDs can be more complicated and time-variable in response to dynamic hydrological forcing. Here, we use particle tracking to estimate RTDs along the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River and to quantify the influences of river stage fluctuations. Particle tracking is conducted using the velocity field from high-resolution 3D groundwater flow simulations. The effects of hydrological forcing on the residence time distribution were evaluated by varying river flow boundary conditions and releasing particles in different time windows. Our results revealed that dynamic stage fluctuations created rapidly changing losing-gaining conditions in the river and led to highly transient RTDs, which contributes to multiple modes of RTDs. Dam-induced high-frequency (sub-daily) flow variation contributes to the short-time (sub-daily) component of the RTDs. Deviation of the reactant consumption under the single-mode assumption compared to the multimodal RTDs is relatively small (~5%) and appears when the Damköhler number was close to one.More specifically, high-frequency (daily) dam-induced stage variations have higher impacts on biogeochemical reactions with faster reaction rate, and can potentially increase the reactant consumption by 26.68%. Based on these findings, we suggest that current river basin models could be improved by including bank storage and more complex RTDs influenced by both short and long term river stage fluctuations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of surface roughness on phase transition timing in megaampere pulsed-power–driven exploding conductors

An understanding of material phase transitions in megaampere pulsed-power–driven exploding conductors is important for predicting the growth of hydrodynamic instabilities in magneto-inertial fusion concepts. Here, this study analyzes phase transitions in electrical conductor explosions using 1D Lagrangian and 2D arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations to show that micrometer-scale surface roughness can lead to the electrothermal instability (ETI), a feedback effect that concentrates resistive heating and leads to early melting and ablation. Simulations of the Mykonos electrothermal instability II (METI-II) experiment show melting begins 19% sooner for machined rods with micrometer-scale surface roughness than for rods without these features. The surface magnetic field is 41 T around the initial region of melt, representing a lower magnitude than both the 86 T from 1D simulations and the 85 T threshold reported elsewhere. In 2D simulations with micrometer-scale surface roughness, temperature measurements indicate the critical point temperature of aluminum is reached 17% faster in comparison with 1D simulations. Values from 2D simulations with surface roughness align with predictions from ETI theory, and the observed temperature redistribution further supports the ETI as an underlying mechanism. Simulation results are validated against experimental photonic Doppler velocimetry data. This study shows 1D simulations are adequate to model conductors with sub-micrometer-scale surface roughness in this high-energy-density regime; however, 2D or 3D simulations are required to capture the full range of physics for accurately describing phase transitions in conductors with micrometer-scale or larger surface roughness.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scale-dependent spatial variabilities of hydrological exchange flows and transit time in a large regulated river

Hydrological exchange flows (HEF) across the river-aquifer interface and the associated residence time of river water in the aquifer have important implications for contaminant plume migration and biogeochemical processes in the river corridor. HEFs and residence time are influenced by both subsurface physical features and hydrologic forcing related to the transport process, which can exhibit complex spatial and temporal variations. In this study, we used a massively parallel subsurface flow model and a particle-tracking model to study the influences of different control factors on spatial variability of HEFs and residence time distributions (RTD) in the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River in Washington State. A total number of 100M particles were randomly injected in time and space and then tracked in a model domain that covers a 51-km 2 area (15.1M model cells). We used hourly river stages and groundwater levels to drive the model to provide dynamic velocity fields for the particle tracking in the simulation period that was longer than 2 years. The groundwater flow simulation and particle-tracking results provide the first comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of HEFs and residence time in large complex river corridors. Overall, our results show that the aquifer hydrogeological structure has the strongest correlation with the extent and magnitude of exchange flux. The residence time exhibits complex patterns that are impacted by all the river geomorphologic, hydrodynamic, and hydrogeologic factors and are strongly correlated with the downwelling ratio of exchange flux. The new insights gained through this study can be used to support the development of reduced-order models of HEFs and RTDs for large complex river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transit Time Simulation Studies

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

H 0 ex machina: Vacuum metamorphosis and beyond H 0

Here, we do not solve tensions with concordance cosmology; we do obtain H 0 ≈ 74 km/s/Mpc from CMB+BAO+SN data in our model, but that is not the point. Discrepancies in Hubble constant values obtained by various astrophysical probes should not be viewed in isolation. While one can resolve at least some of the differences through either an early time transition or late time transition in the expansion rate, these introduce other changes. We advocate a holistic approach, using a wide variety of cosmic data, rather than focusing on one number, H 0 . Vacuum metamorphosis, a late time transition physically motivated by quantum gravitational effects and with the same number of parameters as ΛCDM, can successfully give a high H 0 value from cosmic microwave background data but fails when combined with multiple distance probes. We also explore the influence of spatial curvature, and of a conjoined analysis of cosmic expansion and growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗