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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER

To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally combines modeling and simulation and minimal targeted validation experiments. This manuscript employs intuitive, analytical, numerical, and visual representations to explain how tolerance limits may be calculated for a wide range of configurations, and it also describes how their values may be interpreted. Various verification tests have been developed to test the calculated tolerance limits and to help delineate their values. The manuscript demonstrates the calculation of tolerance limits for TSURFER, a computer code developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for criticality safety applications. The goal is to evaluate the tolerance limit for TSURFER-determined criticality biases to support the determination of upper, subcritical limits for regulatory purposes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in this workflow and centralize the process at one location led to the creation of a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr NCSP ND-1 Task [Slides]

Luiz Leal's idea to integrate the experimental uncertainties, covariances, and sensitivities in the ND workflow and to centralize the process at one location created a cohesive tool for data testing. It has been practiced for more than two decades by the NCS and ND groups at ORNL. The development and use of the ORNL codes TSUNAMI and TSURFER within SCALE made it possible. Today, it has been extended to SAMINT, which enables the coupling of differential and integral data evaluation in a continuous-energy framework.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Standard and Advanced USL Methodologies for Nuclear Criticality Safety

The American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society national standards 8.1 and 8.24 provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations for establishing confidence in the results of the computerized models used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving freedom to the analysts to determine how the various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. Due to the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the resulting safety margins are often difficult to interpret. Also, these technical margins are augmented by additional administrative margins, which are required to ensure compliance with safety standards or regulations, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems, e.g., advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts, focused on economizing operation, there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of the uncertainties and their consolidation methods to reduce them in manners that can be scientifically defended. In response, the current studies compare the analyses behind four notable methodologies for upper subcriticality limit estimation that have been documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Specifically, the work offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the noted methodologies, their adequacies, and their limitations to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems that are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data. Here, to limit the scope, the current work focuses on the application of these methodologies to criticality safety experiments, where the goal is to calculate a bias, a bias uncertainty, and a tolerance limit for k eff in support of determining an upper subcriticality limit for nuclear criticality safety.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of the Baseline USL Calculation Methods for Loosely-Coupled and Novel Neutronic Systems [Slides]

Current work includes reconstructing 187-group ENDF B/VII.1 covariance matrix for comparison study to 44-group ENDF B/VII.1 matrix to determine how covariance matrix structures affect the USL calculations and investigating the exact domination mechanism of region-wise sensitivities in a loosely-coupled system. Future work will involve seeking to understand how bias distributions change with reactivity and how to calculate propagate distribution error into USL calculations, as well as how cross section perturbation studies can be extended to other types of calculations, such as shielding calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reassessing the Origins and Contemporary Relevance of ck Acceptability Parameters: Evolving Perspectives on Similarity

“Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses Applied to Criticality Safety Validation,” introduces sensitivity and uncertainty methods to address challenges in defining and extending areas of applicability for criticality safety validation. These areas are traditionally defined by the bounds or limits on key parameters, but establishing valid ranges and managing complex parameter variations remain challenging. NUREG/CR-6655 introduces ck and other integral indices, as well as concepts such as the completeness of benchmark coverage, to better quantify system similarities. The work proposed herein seeks to evaluate these foundational concepts to ensure that the bounds remain effective in guiding the assessment of similarity and applicability in modern applications. The concept of completeness, along with other parameters envisioned within the framework, serves as an example of the foundational ideas that have been established, though their effectiveness in practice may not be fully understood. Advancements in scripting tools, coupled with the speed and efficiency of modern computing and statistical models, now allow for faster and more thorough assessments than previously possible. These advancements also enable the identification of trends within the data, which could provide additional insight into system behavior and further broaden the scope of previously performed benchmarks. By leveraging these capabilities, we will revisit and expand the scope of these foundational methods to determine whether the necessary elements for robust similarity evaluation are already embedded, partially realized, or remain untapped.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗