Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Target biasing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental and simulation study of target biasing effects on plasma transport in linear plasma device MPS-LD

Linear plasma devices (LPDs) are important experimental platforms for investigating plasma–material interactions (PMI). In PMI experiments, it has been found that applying a target bias not only effectively modifies the incident ion energy, but also induces significant changes in the electron density and electron temperature, whereby the evolution of these plasma parameters is primarily governed by plasma transport processes. However, at present, the physical process and mechanism underlying such bias-induced variations remain unclear. In this work, biasing experiments under argon plasma discharge conditions were first carried out on the MPS-LD device. For the corresponding experiments, an electric potential model was newly developed based on the BOUT++ LPD module, enabling self-consistent simulations of plasma transport under biased conditions. Numerical simulations were then performed to reproduce the experimental results and to validate the accuracy of the proposed model. Finally, by combining experimental measurements with numerical simulations, a bias-voltage scan was performed to investigate how the electron density and electron temperature vary with the bias voltage (U bias ). The results show that applying negative bias decreases the target electron density (n e,T ) while increasing the target electron temperature (T e,T ). In contrast, positive bias increases both n e,T and T e,T ; however, at high positive bias, n e,T first reaches a maximum and subsequently decreases with further increases in U bias . The underlying physical mechanisms are analyzed using particle flux, momentum, and energy conservation. It indicates that the applied bias regulates the parallel electric field, thereby changing ion and electron velocities, and consequently affecting the electron density. At high positive bias, the ion velocity is further influenced by ion viscosity, leading to the reversal in n e,T . Meanwhile, the enhanced parallel electric field drives stronger currents, significantly increasing ion–electron frictional work and converting the input bias power into electron energy, which raises the electron temperature. In conclusion, these results contribute to a deeper understanding of the effects and mechanisms of biasing on plasma transport in the MPS-LD device.

BOUT++ simulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toroidal modeling of 3D perturbations generated by current filaments in scrape-off layer in tokamak with biased divertor targets

The divertor biasing technique offers a promising alternative to control the edge localized mode (ELM) as well as the divertor heat load in tokamaks, as compared to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) generated by magnetic coils. The linear resistive MHD code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681) is employed to study the plasma response to the n = 2 (n is the toroidal mode number) field perturbation in HL-2A, produced by the divertor biasing current filaments flowing in the scrape-off layer region. The response field due to biasing currents is compared with the RMP field utilized for ELM control in HL-2A. The strength of the radial resonant field perturbation, produced by the biasing currents of 100 A level, is found to be comparable with RMP generated by several kA of ELM control coil currents for the reference plasma. The plasma normal displacement near the X-point and the associated neoclassical toroidal viscosity torque are also computed to be similar between these two techniques. The modeling results thus strongly suggest that the biasing technique can be applied to control ELMs. Moreover, the biasing currents produce field perturbations, including the plasma response, that are localized more near the plasma edge (compared to the RMP counterpart), thus reducing the chance of mode locking associated with core perturbations. Particle orbit tracing also reveals that the biasing current produced magnetic perturbation tends to widen the heat deposition region and induce the strike point splitting of the ion saturation flow on the outer divertor surface, consistent with experimental observations in HL-2A. These toroidal modeling results confirm the possibility of ELM control and plasma exhaust solution by the divertor biasing technique.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Moving-horizon false data injection attack design against cyber–physical systems

Systematic attack design is essential to understanding the vulnerabilities of cyber–physical systems (CPSs), to better design for resiliency. In particular, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) are well-known and have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD) while causing targeted biases in resulting state estimates. However, their effectiveness against moving horizon estimators (MHE) is not well understood. In fact, this paper shows that conventional FDIAs are generally ineffective against MHE. One of the main reasons is that the moving window renders the static FDIA recursively infeasible. Here, this paper proposes a new attack methodology, moving-horizon FDIA (MH-FDIA), by considering both the performance of historical attacks and the current system’s status. Theoretical guarantees for successful attack generation and recursive feasibility are given. Numerical simulations on the IEEE-14 bus system further validate the theoretical claims and show that the proposed MH-FDIA outperforms state-of-the-art counterparts in both stealthiness and effectiveness. In addition, an experiment on a path-tracking control system of an autonomous vehicle shows the feasibility of the MH-FDIA in real-world nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The interplay of DNA repair context with target sequence predictably biases Cas9-generated mutations

Abstract Repair of double-stranded breaks generated by CRISPR/Cas9 is highly dependent on the flanking DNA sequence. To learn about interactions between DNA repair and target sequence, we measure frequencies of over 236,000 distinct Cas9-generated mutational outcomes at over 2800 synthetic target sequences in 18 DNA repair deficient mouse embryonic stem cells lines. We classify the outcomes in an unbiased way, finding a specialised role forPrkdc(DNA-PKcs protein) andPolmin creating 1 bp insertions matching the nucleotide on the protospacer-adjacent motif side of the break, a variable involvement ofNbnandPolqin the creation of different deletion outcomes, and uni-directional deletions dependent on both end-protection and end-resection. Using our dataset, we build predictive models of the mutagenic outcomes of Cas9 scission that outperform the current standards. This work improves our understanding of DNA repair gene function, and provides avenues for more precise modulation of Cas9-generated mutations.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining regional mesh refinement with vertically enhanced physics to target marine stratocumulus biases as demonstrated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. In this paper we develop a novel framework aimed to significantly reduce biases related to marine stratocumulus clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) while circumventing excessive computational cost requirements. Our strategy is to increase the horizontal resolution using a regionally refined mesh (RRM) over our region of interest in addition to using the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) to increase the vertical resolution only for specific physical processes that are important for stratocumulus. We apply the RRM off the coast of Peru in the southeastern Pacific, a region that climatologically contains the most marine stratocumulus in the subtropics. We find that our new modeling framework is able to replicate the results of our high-resolution benchmark simulation with much fidelity, while reducing the computational cost by several orders of magnitude. In addition, this framework is able to greatly reduce the long-standing biases associated with marine stratocumulus in GCMs when compared to the standard-resolution control simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ET-AL: Entropy-targeted active learning for bias mitigation in materials data

Growing materials data and data-driven informatics drastically promote the discovery and design of materials. While there are significant advancements in data-driven models, the quality of data resources is less studied despite its huge impact on model performance. In this work, we focus on data bias arising from uneven coverage of materials families in existing knowledge. Observing different diversities among crystal systems in common materials databases, we propose an information entropy-based metric for measuring this bias. To mitigate the bias, we develop an entropy-targeted active learning (ET-AL) framework, which guides the acquisition of new data to improve the diversity of underrepresented crystal systems. We demonstrate the capability of ET-AL for bias mitigation and the resulting improvement in downstream machine learning models. This approach is broadly applicable to data-driven materials discovery, including autonomous data acquisition and dataset trimming to reduce bias, as well as data-driven informatics in other scientific domains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gravitational waves and galaxies cross-correlations: a forecast on GW biases for future detectors

ABSTRACT Gravitational waves (GWs) have rapidly become important cosmological probes since their first detection in 2015. As the number of detected events continues to rise, upcoming instruments like Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) will observe millions of compact binary mergers. These detections, coupled with galaxy surveys by instruments such as the Dark Spectroscopic Energy Instrument (DESI), Euclid, and the Vera Rubin Observatory, will provide unique information on the large-scale structure of the universe by cross-correlating GWs with the distribution of galaxies hosting them. In this paper, we focus on how cross-correlations constrain the clustering bias of GWs emitted by the coalescence of binary black holes (BBHs). This parameter links BBHs to the underlying dark matter distribution, hence informing us how they populate galaxies. Using a multitracer approach, we forecast the precision of these measurements under different survey combinations. Our results indicate that current GW detectors will have limited precision, with measurement errors as high as $\displaystyle \sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. However, third-generation detectors like ET, when cross-correlated with Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) data, can improve clustering bias measurements to within 2.5 per cent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these cross-correlations can enable a per cent-level measurement of the magnification lensing effect on GWs. Despite this, there is a degeneracy between magnification and evolution biases, which hinders the precision of both. This degeneracy is most effectively addressed by assuming knowledge of one bias or targeting an optimal redshift range of $\displaystyle 1 \lt z \lt 2.5$. Our analysis opens new avenues for studying the distribution of BBHs and testing the nature of gravity through large-scale structure.

Zazzera, Stefano (ORCID:0000000158979221)↗
DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: pairwise-inverse probability and angular correction for fibre collisions in clustering measurements

ABSTRACT The completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) catalogues contain redshifts of 344 080 quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2, 174 816 luminous red galaxies between 0.6 < z < 1.0, and 173 736 emission-line galaxies over 0.6 < z < 1.1 in order to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the growth rate of structure through clustering measurements. Mechanical limitations of the fibre-fed spectrograph on the Sloan telescope prevent two fibres being placed closer than 62 arcsec in a single pass of the instrument. These ‘fibre collisions’ strongly correlate with the intrinsic clustering of targets and can bias measurements of the two-point correlation function resulting in a systematic error on the inferred values of the cosmological parameters. We combine the new techniques of pairwise-inverse probability and the angular upweighting (PIP+ANG) to correct the clustering measurements for the effect of fibre collisions. Using mock catalogues, we show that our corrections provide unbiased measurements, within data precision, of both the projected $\rm {\mathit{ w}_p}\left(\mathit{ r}_p\right)$ and the redshift-space multipole ξ(ℓ = 0, 2, 4)(s) correlation functions down to $0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, regardless of the tracer type. We apply the corrections to the eBOSS DR16 catalogues. We find that, on scales $s\gtrsim 20\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ for ξℓ, as used to make baryon acoustic oscillation and large-scale redshift-space distortion measurements, approximate methods such as nearest-neighbour upweighting are sufficiently accurate given the statistical errors of the data. Using the PIP method, for the first time for a spectroscopic program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we are able to successfully access the one-halo term in the clustering measurements down to $\sim 0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ scales. Our results will therefore allow studies that use the small-scale clustering to strengthen the constraints on both cosmological parameters and the halo occupation distribution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Low Can You Go? Using Synthetic 3D Imagery to Drastically Reduce Real-World Training Data for Object Detection

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) currently provide state-of-the-art performance on image classification and object detection tasks, and there are many global security mission areas where such models could be extremely useful. Crucially, the success of these models is driven in large part by the widespread availability of high-quality open source data sets such as Image Net, Common Objects in Context (COCO), and KITTI, which contain millions of images with thousands of unique labels. However, global security relevant objects-of-interest can be difficult to obtain: relevant events are low frequency and high consequence; the content of relevant images is sensitive; and adversaries and proliferators seek to obscure their activities. For these cases where exemplar data is hard to come-by, even fine-tuning an existing model with available data can be effectively impossible. Recent work demonstrated that models can be trained using a combination of real-world and synthetic images generated from 3D representations; that such models can exceed the performance of models trained using real-world data alone; and that the generated images need not be perfectly realistic (Tremblay, et al., 2018). However, this approach still required hundreds to thousands of real-world images for training and fine tuning, which for sparse, global security-relevant datasets can be an unrealistic hurdle. In this research, we validate the performance and behavior of DCNN models as we drive the number of real-world images used for training object detection tasks down to a minimal set. We perform multiple experiments to identify the best approach to train DCNNs from an extremely small set of real-world images. In doing so, we: Develop state-of-the-art, parameterized 3D models based on real-world images and sample from their parameters to increase the variance in synthetic image training data; Use machine learning explainability techniques to highlight and correct through targeted training the biases that result from training using completely synthetic images; and Validate our results by comparing the performance of the models trained on synthetic data to one another, and to a control model created by fine-tuning an existing ImageNet-trained model with a limited number (hundreds) of real-world images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Photometric Calibration of DESI Imaging and Gaia Synthetic Photometry

Abstract The relative photometric calibration errors in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (LS), which are used for DESI target selection, can leave imprints on the DESI target densities and bias the resulting cosmological measurements. We characterize the LS calibration systematics by comparing the LS stellar photometry with Gaia DR3 synthetic photometry. We find the stellar photometry of LS DR9 and Gaia has an rms difference of 4.7, 3.7, 4.4 mmag in DECam grz bands, respectively, when averaged over an angular scale of 27 ′ . There are distinct spatial patterns in the photometric offset resembling the Gaia scan patterns (most notably in the synthesized g -band) which indicate systematics in the Gaia spectrophotometry, as well as honeycomb patterns due to LS calibration systematics. We also find large and smoothly varying photometric offsets at decl. < −29.°25 in LS DR9 which are fixed in DR10.

Zhou, Rongpu (ORCID:0000000153814372)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of gas injection location and divertor surface material on ITER fusion power operation phase divertor performance assessed with SOLPS-ITER *

Abstract The ITER divertor design and performance assessment, primarily based on the SOLPS-4.3 burning plasma database (Pitts R. et al 2019 Nucl. Mater. Energy 20 100696), assumes the use of beryllium (Be) as the divertor surface material and the injection of gas from the main chamber top. However, the current ITER baseline favors gas injection from the more toroidally symmetric sub-divertor region. This paper evaluates the implications of these assumptions for divertor performance in the ITER fusion power operation phase. The impact of the divertor surface material and the gas injection location on the main ions mirrors the hydrogen only low power phase scenario shown in Park J.-S. et al (2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 016021). However, during burning plasma operation, extrinsic impurity seeding will be required. In the case of neon (Ne), studied here, impurity retention is influenced by both the divertor surface material and the fueling location. Neon leakage increases due to more energetic reflection from tungsten than beryllium, but equivalent divertor performance can be achieved by adjusting the neon seeding rate. While the impurity seeding location does not affect the distributions of impurity or radiation, the fueling location does. Top fueling provides local ionization sources mainly in the mid-SOL under detached conditions, enhancing divergences of the flux there (source-driven flow), bringing stagnation points close to the fueling location, and equilibrating flows towards both targets. In contrast, the global flow pattern (in the absence of fluid drifts) in the case of sub-divertor fueling is biased towards the inner target. Impurity flows, driven by force balance, largely mirror those of the main ion flow, including the stagnation point. The case with top fueling enhances Ne retention and corresponding radiation in the outer divertor, effectively reducing the total and peak target heat fluxes by 20%–40%, compared to the case with divertor fueling. Meanwhile, the case with outer target fueling also achieves similar reductions by enhancing plasma-neutral interactions. These results suggest the possibility that the selection of the fueling location and throughput can be used as an actuator to control impurity divertor retention and divertor radiation asymmetry.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Californium-252 production at the High Flux Isotope Reactor - I: Validation study using campaign data

This paper presents a series of 252 Cf production validation and code-to-code comparison studies performed based on data from the production campaigns at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). These studies support efforts to convert HFIR from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. HFIR must maintain its world-class performance and missions following this conversion, and because 252 Cf is a vital neutron-emitting radioisotope used for a variety of high-impact applications (e.g., reactor startup, cancer treatment), the ability to efficiently produce 252 Cf must be preserved. In this work, the HFIRCON, Shift, ORIGEN, and TCOMP codes were deployed, and several sets of data libraries were investigated to better understand the calculation codes and the data biases. As-loaded target composition data, as-run irradiation history data, and post-irradiation measurements from recent multi-cycle irradiation campaigns of the HEU core were used to validate and determine methodology biases. Further, the findings demonstrated a good agreement, with results falling within 3 standard deviations of measurements. This paper lays the ground work for the second paper, which evaluates and compares 252 Cf production and safety metrics with the HEU core and a proposed LEU core.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular mechanism of biased signaling at the kappa opioid receptor

The κ-opioid receptor (KOR) has emerged as an attractive drug target for pain management without addiction, and biased signaling through particular pathways of KOR may be key to maintaining this benefit while minimizing side-effect liabilities. As for most G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), however, the molecular mechanisms of ligand-specific signaling at KOR have remained unclear. To better understand the molecular determinants of KOR signaling bias, we apply structure determination, atomic-level molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and functional assays. We determine a crystal structure of KOR bound to the G protein-biased agonist nalfurafine, the first approved KOR-targeting drug. We also identify an arrestin-biased KOR agonist, WMS-X600. Using MD simulations of KOR bound to nalfurafine, WMS-X600, and a balanced agonist U50,488, we identify three active-state receptor conformations, including one that appears to favor arrestin signaling over G protein signaling and another that appears to favor G protein signaling over arrestin signaling. These results, combined with mutagenesis validation, provide a molecular explanation of how agonists achieve biased signaling at KOR.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI quasar targets and Planck CMB lensing

We detect the cross-correlation between 2.7 million DESI quasar targets across 14,700 deg 2 (180 quasars deg -2 ) and Planck 2018 CMB lensing at ~30σ. We use the cross-correlation on very large scales to constrain local primordial non-Gaussianity via the scale dependence of quasar bias. The DESI quasar targets lie at an effective redshift of 1.51 and are separated into four imaging regions of varying depth and image quality. We select quasar targets from Legacy Survey DR9 imaging, apply additional flux and photometric redshift cuts to improve the purity and reduce the fraction of unclassified redshifts, and use early DESI spectroscopy of 194,000 quasar targets to determine their redshift distribution and stellar contamination fraction (2.6%). Due to significant excess large-scale power in the quasar autocorrelation, we apply weights to mitigate contamination from imaging systematics such as depth, extinction, and stellar density. We use realistic contaminated mocks to determine the greatest number of systematic modes that we can fit, before we are biased by overfitting and spuriously remove real power. We find that linear regression with one to seven imaging templates removed per region accurately recovers the input cross-power, f NL and linear bias. As in previous analyses, our fNL constraint depends on the linear primordial non-Gaussianity bias parameter, b Φ = 2(b - p)δ c assuming universality of the halo mass function. We measure f NL = -26 +45 -40 with p = 1.6 (f NL = -18 +29 -27 with p = 1.0), and find that this result is robust under several systematics tests. Future spectroscopic quasar cross-correlations with Planck lensing can tighten the f NL constraints by a factor of 2 if they can remove the excess power on large scales in the quasar auto power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum-cascade-laser-absorption-spectroscopy diagnostic for temperature, pressure, and NO X 2 Π 1/2 at 500 kHz in shock-heated air at elevated pressures

The design, validation, and application of a quantum-cascade-laser-absorption-spectroscopy diagnostic for measuring gas temperature, pressure, and nitric oxide (NO) in high-temperature air are presented. A distributed-feedback quantum-cascade laser (QCL) centered near 1976 c m − <#comment/> 1 was used to scan across two transitions of NO in its ground electronic state ( X 2 Π <#comment/> 1 / 2 ). A measurement rate of 500 kHz was achieved using a single QCL by: (1) performing current modulation through a bias-tee, and (2) targeting closely spaced transitions with a large difference in lower-state energy. The diagnostic was validated in a mixture of 95% argon and 5% NO, which was shock-heated to ≈ <#comment/> 2000 to 3700 K. The average mean percent differences between laser-absorption-spectroscopy (LAS) measurements and predictions from shock-jump relations for temperature, pressure, and NO mole fraction were 3.1%, 4.1%, and 6.5%, respectively. The diagnostic was then applied to characterize shock-heated air at high temperatures (up to ≈ <#comment/> 5500 K ) and high pressures (up to 12 atm) behind either incident or reflected shocks. The LAS measurements were compared to theoretical predictions from shock-jump relations, pressure sensors mounted in the wall of the shock tube, and equilibrium values of the NO mole fraction. The average mean percent differences between LAS measurements and their aforementioned reference values were 3.2%, 10.8%, and 10.4% for temperature, pressure, and NO mole fraction, respectively. Last, a comparison between a measured NO mole fraction time history and a time-stepped homogeneous reactor simulation performed using two different chemical kinetics mechanisms is presented.

Gilvey, Jonathan J. (ORCID:0000000317664383)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid Cis–Trans Coevolution Driven by a Novel Gene Retroposed from a Eukaryotic Conserved CCR4–NOT Component in Drosophila

Young, or newly evolved, genes arise ubiquitously across the tree of life, and they can rapidly acquire novel functions that influence a diverse array of biological processes. Previous work identified a young regulatory duplicate gene in Drosophila, Zeus that unexpectedly diverged rapidly from its parent, Caf40, an extremely conserved component in the CCR4–NOT machinery in post-transcriptional and post-translational regulation of eukaryotic cells, and took on roles in the male reproductive system. This neofunctionalization was accompanied by differential binding of the Zeus protein to loci throughout the Drosophila melanogaster genome. However, the way in which new DNA-binding proteins acquire and coevolve with their targets in the genome is not understood. Here, by comparing Zeus ChIP-Seq data from D. melanogaster and D. simulans to the ancestral Caf40 binding events from D. yakuba, a species that diverged before the duplication event, we found a dynamic pattern in which Zeus binding rapidly coevolved with a previously unknown DNA motif, which we term Caf40 and Zeus-Associated Motif (CAZAM), under the influence of positive selection. Interestingly, while both copies of Zeus acquired targets at male-biased and testis-specific genes, D. melanogaster and D. simulans proteins have specialized binding on different chromosomes, a pattern echoed in the evolution of the associated motif. Using CRISPR-Cas9-mediated gene knockout of Zeus and RNA-Seq, we found that Zeus regulated the expression of 661 differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Our results suggest that the evolution of young regulatory genes can be coupled to substantial rewiring of the transcriptional networks into which they integrate, even over short evolutionary timescales. Our results thus uncover dynamic genome-wide evolutionary processes associated with new genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving thermodynamic nudging in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 2 (EAMv2): strategy and hindcast skills on weather systems

Nudging techniques are commonly employed to constrain atmospheric simulations toward observed states, facilitating model evaluation and sensitivity studies. However, if applied improperly – particularly to thermodynamic variables such as temperature and humidity – nudging can distort physical processes and introduce spurious biases, undermining the credibility of the simulations. This study presents an improved nudging implementation that applies vertically modulated tendencies to reduce adverse impacts on model physics. The framework is tested in version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (EAMv2) using a suite of hindcast simulations nudged toward ERA5 reanalysis. We systematically evaluate the individual and combined effects of nudging wind, temperature, and humidity fields on the model's ability to represent large-scale atmospheric states and high-impact weather systems. Results show that the revised strategy – particularly when nudging temperature and humidity at selected levels – enhances hindcast skill by improving agreement with ERA5 without degrading the hydrological cycle or precipitation processes. Additional improvements in surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, and precipitation biases are achieved through targeted nudging of land-surface variables. The proposed approach strengthens the representation of large-scale conditions relevant to tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extratropical cyclones in the low-resolution EAMv2. These findings demonstrate that carefully designed thermodynamic nudging, especially of temperature and humidity, improves the realism of constrained simulations and broadens the utility of nudged EAMv2 for atmospheric modeling, machine learning, and high-impact weather research.

Atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗