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Technology Scouting Report: Reliability Implications of Recent PV Module Technology Trends
This webinar links recent and anticipated PV module technology trends - such as the transition to n-type cells, increasing module sizes, and new encapsulants - with potential increases and reductions in reliability risk. Market trends are drawn from industry data and projections, and corresponding reliability implications are synthesized from interviews with researchers and industry experts. The webinar is an interim step toward developing a technology scouting report.
Electric Drive Technology Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities for Future Electric Vehicles
The transition to electric road transport technologies requires electric traction drive systems to offer improved performances and capabilities, such as fuel efficiency (in terms of MPGe, i.e., miles per gallon of gasoline-equivalent), extended range, and fast-charging options. The enhanced electrification and transformed mobility are translating to a demand for higher power and more efficient electric traction drive systems that lead to better fuel economy for a given battery charge. To accelerate the mass-market adoption of electrified transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with the automotive industry, has announced the technical targets for light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) for 2025. This article discusses the electric drive technology trends for passenger electric and hybrid EVs with commercially available solutions in terms of materials, electric machine and inverter designs, maximum speed, component cooling, power density, and performance. Additionally, the emerging materials and technologies for power electronics and electric motors are presented, identifying the challenges and opportunities for even more aggressive designs to meet the need for next-generation EVs. Some innovative drive and motor designs with the potential to meet the DOE 2025 targets are also discussed.
International review of market trends, technologies and policies for commercial refrigeration equipment and implications for China
This report reviews the latest global and China-specific market trends as well as latest technology and policy trends related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 reviews the global and China market trends for commercial refrigeration equipment. Section 3 presents the latest technology options for improving energy performance and compares global Best Available Technologies (BAT) to regional and China-specific baselines, and discusses low-GWP refrigerant options for commercial refrigeration equipment. Section 4 reviews global energy efficiency standards and labeling programs, and compares international efficiency standard requirements with China’s proposed and existing standard requirements. Section 5 ends with a review of key findings and conclusions.
Recent UAS and Counter-UAS Industry Technology Trends and Developments.
Abstract not provided.
Follow-Up from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW): Cost Modeling Capabilities to Evaluate Trends in PV Technologies
NREL's Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) team reviews live polling results from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) related to module technology trends believed to have the greatest reliability impacts. Then, the team reviews the publicly available tools and inputs necessary for evaluating reliability tradeoffs between initial module and system costs, degradation profiles, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). These tools include the online Detailed Cost Analysis Models (DCAM) and the DuraMAT LCOE calculator.
Technological diffusion trends suggest a more equitable future for rooftop solar in the United States
Abstract Equity has become central in the academic and regulatory discourse shaping the future of residential-scale clean energy technologies in the United States, particularly rooftop solar. Here, we develop a holistic perspective on these issues by analyzing rooftop solar adoption trends using two alternative forecasting methods: an inside-view forecast based on historical solar adoption data, and an outside-view forecast based on adoption data for other emerging consumer technologies. We show how rooftop solar, like other emerging consumer technologies, has become more equitably adopted over time. We show that solar diffusion patterns are largely consistent with those of other technologies. Both forecasting methods suggest that clean energy technologies should be expected to become more equitably adopted over time. Policy could accelerate this process by supporting low-income adoption without unduly curbing overall diffusion.
Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook
As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.
Emerging Trends and Technologies Used for the Identification, Detection, and Characterisation of Plant-Parasitic Nematode Infestation in Crops
Accurate identification and estimation of the population densities of microscopic, soil-dwelling plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are essential, as PPNs cause significant economic losses in agricultural production systems worldwide. This study presents a comprehensive review of emerging techniques used for the identification of PPNs, including morphological identification, molecular diagnostics such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), high-throughput sequencing, meta barcoding, remote sensing, hyperspectral analysis, and image processing. Classical morphological methods require a microscope and nematode taxonomist to identify species, which is laborious and time-consuming. Alternatively, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has emerged as a reliable and efficient approach for PPN identification and quantification; however, the cost associated with the reagents, instrumentation, and careful optimisation of reaction conditions can be prohibitive. High-throughput sequencing and meta-barcoding are used to study the biodiversity of all tropical groups of nematodes, not just PPNs, and are useful for describing changes in soil ecology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods are necessary to automate the detection and counting of PPNs from microscopic images, including complex cases like tangled nematodes. Remote sensing and hyperspectral methods offer non-invasive approaches to estimate nematode infestations and facilitate early diagnosis of plant stress caused by nematodes and rapid management of PPNs. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers involved in nematology and plant protection. It highlights the importance of fast, efficient, and robust identification protocols and decision-support tools in mitigating the impact of PPNs on global agriculture and food security.
Sustainable Manufacturing - Technology: Opportunities, Trends, and Technoeconomic Analysis
This poster, presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Manufacturing Office Peer Review Meeting in June 2019, discusses sustainable manufacturing opportunities, trends, and technoeconomic analysis.
Technoeconomic Analysis (TEA)
Techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the DuraMAT Consortium includes the following areas: linking solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends to reliability implications; providing a framework to calculate technology costs, yielding insights useful for research decision-making, proposals, technology selection, and publications; and examining technology tradeoffs considering lifecycle project economics. This poster highlights results from the first and second iterations of the DuraMAT Technology Scouting reports as well as the updated Simplified PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Calculator.
Challenges in synthesis of heterostructures
Developing the ability to reproducibly prepare materials drives the advancement of human technology. Trends in historical advances and extrapolation of current technologies suggest that the next logical step is developing the ability to control structure and composition at near atomic scales in device manufacturing to take advantage of emergent properties discovered in 2D materials and heterostructures. This article reviews a subset of synthetic approaches used to prepare heterostructures, outlining key reaction steps, and how experimental parameters are used to control which product forms. The positive attributes of each synthesis approach are discussed along with some of their limitations. The elemental reactant (MER) approach is discussed in more depth.
Driving the Shift to Energy-Efficient and Climate-Responsible Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in Chile
This report provides an overview of global and Chile-specific market trends, technological advancements, and policy developments related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with an emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 examines CRE market trends at the global and Chilean levels. Section 3 presents CRE energy consumption and the latest technological options for improving energy performance. It also discusses low global warming potential (GWP)1 refrigerant options for CRE. Section 4 provides a cost-effectiveness analysis. Section 5 reviews other regional energy efficiency standards and labeling programs and offers potential standard requirements for Chile. Section 6 concludes the report by summarizing key findings and conclusions. Finally, Appendix A provides detailed guidelines intended as a starting point to inform policies and programmes.
Results of Application Demonstration of Autonomous Offshore Power System Supporting Multiple Mobile and Static Assets
Over the last decade, several technology trends have dominated the innovation cycle within the terrestrial economy. Electrification, cloud computing, decarbonization, digitization, and autonomy are representative examples of macro trends that have had a rapid and fundamental impact; an impact felt not only in user-facing technologies, such as electric vehicles and software-as-a-service, but also in the infrastructure required to deliver those technologies. However, the scale of the impact and rollout has not been felt equally between the terrestrial and ocean economies. Here, the innovation cycle in the ocean economy is significantly slower. What accounts for the difference and are there solutions to this issue?
IEA PVPS Task 13 Techno-Economic Study of Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems on Single Axis Trackers
The International Energy Agency PVPS Task 13 has assembled an international team of photovoltaic (PV) researchers from government labs, academia, and industry to study the specific application of bifacial PV modules deployed on tracking systems. This configuration is of particular interest as it has been identified as the PV system design with the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for over 90% of the world [1]. As such, much research, development, and commercial activity are focused on further optimizing this system design for different regions and markets, including field deployment and advanced modeling activities. Despite these efforts, many challenges remain to overcome with this system design. This conference paper will report on several areas the team is working on as part of this project. The first part of this study focuses on extensive interviews with PV tracker companies (we have identified 35) and customers worldwide to identify emerging technology trends, design diversity, market environments, and the reliability and performance of these systems. We will provide a market summary of technologies such as advanced tracking algorithms, methods for dealing with topography within the PV plant, different system configurations and layouts, backside irradiance optimization from albedo enhancement, and ground sculpting. We will also review dual-use applications of tracked bifacial systems, such as Agrivoltaics and Building-Integrated PV. These interviews are underway now, and we will be able to report our initial findings at the conference. The second part of the study focuses on summarizing performance monitoring and evaluation methods, with particular attention to capacity and acceptance testing for such systems. The third part of the study reviews performance modeling and yield assessment methods for these tracked bifacial PV systems. The final part of the study covers reliability and operations, and maintenance data from these systems.
Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind
Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.
2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop
Decarbonization refers to a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel sources for energy production and toward energy sources, energy end-use practices, and land management approaches that do not result in a net increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Decarbonization in the Southeastern United States is distinguished from that of other regions in the country by its potential impact on historically underserved populations and the ways this region’s human–environmental systems are predicted to fare in a climate-altered world. In parallel, ensuring a clean energy transition requires the ability to engage entire communities that are motivated to learn, build, and encourage the spread of so-called clean tech. In contrast to other technology trends from the past century, the foundation of clean tech is a shared sense of purpose—a collective strategy to mitigate the threats of climate change and support a better environment for everyone. As seen in the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP’s) Net-Zero Technology Action Plan (2023), decarbonization is best accelerated by simultaneous investments in Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment of technology in tandem with intentional policy and community-based solutions. The 2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop, hosted by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), aimed to bring together members of our communities and a group of regional experts to strategize about opportunities in this important area, as well as to incorporate the important pillar of System Interactions to bridge the gap between clean tech’s intent and its impact.
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.