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At least 19 records

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Climate impacts↗

The GISS sounding temperature impact test

The impact of DST 5 and DST 6 satellite sounding data on mid-range forecasting was studied. The GISS temperature sounding technique, the GISS time-continuous four-dimensional assimilation procedure based on optimal statistical analysis, the GISS forecast model, and the verification techniques developed, including impact on local precipitation forecasts are described. It is found that the impact of sounding data was substantial and beneficial for the winter test period, Jan. 29 - Feb. 21. 1976. Forecasts started from initial state obtained with the aid of satellite data showed a mean improvement of about 4 points in the 48 and 772 hours Sub 1 scores as verified over North America and Europe. This corresponds to an 8 to 12 hour forecast improvement in the forecast range at 48 hours. An automated local precipitation forecast model applied to 128 cities in the United States showed on an average 15% improvement when satellite data was used for numerical forecasts. The improvement was 75% in the midwest.

Halem, M.↗

A Note on the Relationship of Temperature and Water Vapor over Oceans, as well as the Sea Surface Temperature Impact

This note follows up on a recent study by Shie et al. (2005) and extends the investigation of the domain-averaged moisture-temperature (Q-T) relationship from the Tropics (i.e., the previous study) to the tropical Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The Q and T data examined in this study are obtained from the GEOS-3 [Goddard Earth Observing System Version-3] global re-analysis monthly products. Similar to what was found earlier in the Tropics, Q is also found to increase with T over the entire oceanic region; however, Q increases faster with T over oceans than over the Tropics. The Q-T distribution for the Tropics is in a quasi-linear relationship, which is embedded in a global Q-T distribution that is, however, in a more complex curvilinear relationship. The Q-T distribution over the oceanic regions seems to fall within the lower bound (ie., the relatively colder and driver regime) of the tropical Q-T distribution. T over oceans is also found increasing with SST (sea surface temperature), which seemingly implies that an air mass might have gained heat more readily from a warmer ocean as compared to a colder ocean. Q is also found to increase with SST in a manner that quantitatively resembles an earlier finding by Stevens (1990). We also found that relative humidity exhibits similar behaviors for oceanic and tropical regions, respectively, i.e., it increases with both SST and T over oceans and increases with T in the Tropics (Shie et al. 2005). All these similar features found between oceanic and tropical regions seem to inform us that oceans occupy most of the Tropics and so play a key role in determining what have happened in the Tropics.

Shie, C.-L.↗

Development of Ultra Low Temperature, Impact Resistant Lithium Battery for the Mars Microprobe

The requirements of the power source for the Mars Microprobe, to be backpacked on the Mars 98 Spacecraft, are fairly demanding, with survivability to a shock of the order of 80,000 g combined with an operational requirement at -80 C. Development of a suitable power system, based on primary lithium-thionyl chloride is underway for the last eighteen months, together with Yardney Technical Products Inc., Pawcatuck, CT. The battery consists of 4 cells of 2 Ah capacity at 25 C, of which at least 25 % would be available at -80 C, at a moderate rate of C/20. Each probe contains two batteries and two such probes will be deployed. The selected cell is designed around an approximate 1/2 "D" cells, with flat plate electrodes. Significant improvements to the conventional Li-SOCl2 cell include: (a) use of tetrachlorogallate salt instead of aluminate for improved low temperature performance and reduced voltage delay, (b) optimization of the salt concentration, and (c) modification of the cell design to develop shock resistance to 80,000 g. We report here results from our several electrical performance tests, mission simulation tests, microcalorimetry and AC impedance studies, and Air gun tests. The cells have successfully gone through mission-enabling survivability and performance tests for the Mars Microprobe penetrator.

Frank, H.↗

The Effect of Ballistic Impacts on the High Cycle Fatigue Properties of Ti-48Al-2Nb-2Cr (at.%)

The ability of gamma - TiAl to withstand potential foreign and/or domestic object damage is a technical risk to the implementation of gamma - TiAl in low pressure turbine (LPT) blade applications. The overall purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of ballistic impact damage on the high cycle fatigue strength of gamma - TiAl simulated LPT blades. Impact and specimen variables included ballistic impact energy, projectile hardness, impact temperature, impact location, and leading edge thickness. The level of damage induced by the ballistic impacting was studied and quantified on both the impact (front) and backside of the specimens. Multiple linear regression was used to model the cracking and fatigue response as a function of the impact variables. Of the impact variables studied, impact energy had the largest influence on the response of gamma - TiAl to ballistic impacting. Backside crack length was the best predictor of remnant fatigue strength for low energy impacts (<0.74J) whereas Hertzian crack length (impact side damage) was the best predictor for higher energy impacts. The impacted gamma - TiAl samples displayed a classical mean stress dependence on the fatigue strength. For the fatigue design stresses of a 6th stage LPT blade in a GE90 engine, a Ti-48Al-2Nb-2Cr LPT blade would survive an impact of normal service conditions.

Draper, S. L.↗

Apollo Sample 64455: Petrologic and Geochemical Characterization of a Glass-Coated Impact Melt Rock

Introduction and Background: Impact melts are a key product of the impact cratering process. Impact melts can turbulently entrain pre-existing rock fragments, and melt part of those entrained materials until thermal equilibrium is achieved [1–3]. Lunar impact melt rocks are valuable for determining the precise ages of basin-forming and cratering events, which anchor the cratering chronology and dynamics of the entire solar system [4, and references therein]. Additionally, entrained clasts can inform on the petrology and age of crustal materials that predate the melt-forming impact. In lithologies where no pristine samples are available, entrained materials may hold the record of endogenous lunar volatiles, provided we can untangle their impact histories as high temperature impact melt can heat the clasts and may alter their native volatiles or isotopic signatures [5–6]. Here, we characterize an Apollo 16 sample, 64455,70B, in an effort to understand the physical, microstructural, and geochemical consequences of impact melt contact metamorphism. We acquired optical light and x-ray maps of the sample, as well as quantitative analyses via electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). These tasks allow us to better understand the interaction between impact melts and entrained clasts, ultimately closing knowledge gaps in high-temperature impact processing on planetary surfaces. Sample Description: Sample 64455 is an oblong crystalline rock encased in glass to form an egg-like shape [7–8]. The impact melt coating has altered the outer (1 to 2 mm) rind of the crystalline rock and has preserved schlieren. The interior crystalline rock is likely a crystalline impact melt rock based on its bulk Ir content of 2.25 parts per billion [9]. The composition of the impact melt glass rind cannot be solely derived from the crystalline interior, the glassy rind is more aluminous and less magnesian [10]. Neither the crystalline interior nor the glassy rind were radiometrically age dated, although several studies investigated its cosmogenic isotopes and exposure ages, which reveal the sample was exposed on the lunar surface for ~1–2 Ma [11–13]. Preliminary Results: The interior crystalline rock consists primarily of plagioclase with interstitial pyroxene and olivine. Plagioclase grains are zoned and compositions range from An97–89, while pyroxene compositions generally range from En68Fs19Wo13 to En82Fs15Wo3 and olivine are Fo77 to Fo85. Minor phases include Fe-Ni metal, Ca-phosphates, a K- and Si-rich phase, sulfides, and Fe-phosphides. The glass rind contains approximately 44 wt.% SiO2, 25 wt.% Al2O3, 6 wt.% FeO, 8 wt.% MgO, and 14 wt.% CaO, with other oxides at <1 wt.% each, although the composition of the glass becomes more variable closest to the crystalline rock. The rind consists of rounded plagioclase, pyroxene, and olivine crystals with interstitial melt. In some locations, the rounded crystals are surrounded by closely-packed, blade-like crystals, <5 µm in width. These results indicate that the crystalline interior has partially melted where in contact with the high-temperature impact melt and while further investigation is needed, pyroxene may have preferentially melted relative to olivine and plagioclase. Future Work: We plan to conduct electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping in order to determine crystallinity and crystal orientation. Next using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) data in conjunction with EBSD and EPMA information, we will model the diffusion of moderately volatile elements between the melt and remnant crystals.

A C Stadermann↗

Constraining the Temperature of Impact Melt from the Mistastin Lake Impact Structure Using Zircon Crystal Structures

Impact melt is a product of hyper-velocity impact events formed by the instantaneous melting of near-surface target rocks. Constraining the temperature of impact melt is vital to understanding its prograde heating and cooling history, which can have implications for inferring the environment of early Earth ~4.0 billion years ago when microbial life potentially arose. To date, only one datum on the initial impact melt temperature has been derived by Timms et al. These authors studied zirconia microstructures and crystallographic orientations that revealed the former presence of cubic zirconia, found in a black impact glass at the Mistastin Lake impact structure, Canada. The presence of cubic zirconia indicates a minimum temperature for the impact melt of >2370°C from the dissociation temperature of zircon to cubic zirconia and liquid SiO2. With only one temperature datum, it is still difficult to constrain the entire temperature range experienced during the impact melting process; from its instantaneous formation to thermal equilibrium with the “cold” clasts collected along the crater floor and walls. In addition, obtaining a temperature value from only one type of impactite limits the inferred temperature range, because each impactite experiences a different cooling history. In this study, we present a preliminary investigation of 61 zircon crystals, 14 of which are similar to those studied by Timms et al., from the Mistastin Lake impact structure. To acquire a more accurate temperature profile representative of impact melt, zircon crystals were collected from different types of impactites containing impact melt, including additional samples of the black impact glass studied by Timms et al.

Tolometti, G. D.↗

Influence of Temperature and Impact Velocity on the Coefficient of Restitution

Tests were performed on a variety of material combinations to understand the effects of temperature and impact velocity on the coefficient of restitution (COR). The tests, performed in a vacuum at room and liquid nitrogen temperatures, consisted of dropping a ball onto a target plate and recording the impact time history of the ball's bounce-down. Time intervals between successive impacts were measured from the time history and used to calculate the coefficient of restitution and impact velocity for each impact. Maximum impact velocities ranged from approximately 33 (0.84) to 52 in./s (1.32 m/s). Five ball-target plate combinations were evaluated: type 316 stainless steel (316 SS) on 316 SS; M50 tool steel on Armalon; M50 on 4340 steel; 410C steel on Armalon; and copper on copper. The coefficient of restitution for the 316 SS-316 SS, M50-Armalon, 410C-Armalon, and copper-copper combinations increased as the temperature and impact velocity decreased. The coefficient for the hard steel combination, M50-4340, was not greatly influenced by temperature or variations in impact velocity.

Radil, Kevin C.↗

The effect of electron temperature and impact ionization on Martian return AOTV flowfields

Various electron impact ionization models in conjunction with a quasi-equilibrium electron temperature model have been investigated and applied to the stagnation region of a hypothetical 2.3 m nose radius Martian return AOTV. For the conditions considered, U = 12 km/sec at 80 km, both multi-temperature inviscid and viscous results indicate that a two-step ionization impact model predicts ionization distances in agreement with experimental data, that nonequilibrium chemistry and radiation effects are important throughout the stagnation zone, and that the quasi-equilibrium electron temperature model is reasonable. Also, using a non-grey emission-absorption radiation step model, it is shown that nonequilibrium causes a reduction in radiative heating from that predicted for equilibrium conditions and that compared to an adiabatic wall a cool wall (1650 deg K) results in a 28 to 45 percent reduction in radiative heating due to absorption near the wall.

Carlson, Leland A.↗

Process development of two high strength tantalum base alloys (ASTAR-1211C and ASTAR-1511C)

Two tantalum base alloys, Ta-12W-1.0Re-0.7Hf-0.025C(ASTAR-1211C) and Ta-15W-1.0Re-0.7Hf-0.025C(ASTAR-1511C), were cast as 12.5 cm (5 inch) diameter ingots and processed to swaged rod, sheet, forged plate, and tubing. Swaged rod was evaluated with respect to low temperature ductility, elevated temperature tensile properties, and elevated temperature creep behavior. A standard swaging process and final annealing schedule were determined. Elevated temperature tensile properties, low temperature impact properties, low temperature DBTT behavior, and extended elevated temperature creep properties were determined. A process for producing ASTAR-1211C and ASTAR-1511C sheet were developed. The DBTT properties of GTA and EB weld sheet given post-weld anneal and thermal aging treatments were determined using bend and tensile specimens. High and low temperature mechanical properties of forging ASTAR-1211C and ASTAR-1511C plate were determined as well as elevated temperature creep properties. Attempts to produce ASTAR-1211C tubing were partially successful while attempts to make ASTAR-1511C tubing were completely unsuccessful.

Ammon, R. L.↗

Elevated Temperature Ballistic Impact Testing of PBO and Kevlar Fabrics for Application in Supersonic Jet Engine Fan Containment Systems

Ballistic impact tests were conducted on fabric made from both Poly(phenylene benzobizoxazole) (PBO) and Kevlar 29 which were selected to be similar in weave pattern, areal density, and fiber denier. The projectiles were 2.54-cm- (1-in.-) long aluminum cylinders with a diameter of 1.27 cm (0.5 in.). The fabric specimens were clamped on four sides in a 30.5-cm- (12-in.-) square frame. Tests on PBO were conducted at room temperature and at 260 C (500 F). A number of PBO specimens were aged in air at 204 and 260 C (400 and 500 F) before impact testing. Kevlar specimens were tested only at room temperature and with no aging. The PBO absorbed significantly more energy than the Kevlar at both room and elevated temperatures. However, after aging at temperatures of 204 C (400 F) and above, the PBO fabric lost almost all of its energy absorbing ability. It was concluded that PBO fabric is not a feasible candidate for fan containment system applications in supersonic jet engines where operating temperatures exceed this level.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

Silica and Pyroxene in IVA Irons; Possible Formation of the IVA Magma by Impact Melting and Reduction of L-LL-Chondrite Materials Followed by Crystallization and Cooling

Group IVA is a large magmatic group of iron meteorites. The mean DELTA O-17 (= delta O-17 - 0.52(raised dot) delta O-18) of the silicates is approx. plus or minus 1.2%o, similar to the highest values in L chondrites and the lowest values in LL chondrites; delta O-18 values are also in the L/LL range. This strongly suggests that IVA irons formed by melting L-LL parental material, but the mean Ni content of IVA irons (83 mg/g) is much lower than that of a presumed L-LL parent (approx. 170 mg/g) and the low-Ca pyroxene present in two IVA meteorites is Fs13, much lower than the Fs20-29 values in L and LL chondrites. Thus, formation from L-LL precursors requires extensive addition of metallic Fe, probably produced by reduction of FeS and FeO. Group IVA also has S/Ni, Ga/Ni, and Ge/Ni ratios that are much lower than those in L-LL chondrites or any chondrite group that preserves nebular compositions, implying loss of these volatile elements during asteroidal processing. We suggest that these reduction and loss processes occurred near the surface of the asteroid during impact heating, and resulted partly from reduction by C, and partly from the thermal dissociation of FeS and FeO with loss of O and S. The hot (approx. 1770 K) low-viscosity melt quickly moved through channels in the porous asteroid to form a core. Two members of the IVA group, Sao Joao Nepomuceno (hereafter, SJN) and Steinbach, contain moderate amounts of orthopyroxene and silica, and minor amounts of low-Ca clinopyroxene. Even though SJN formed after approx. 26% crystallization and Steinbach formed after approx. 77% Crystallization of the IVA core, both could have originated within several tens of meters of the core-mantle interface if 99% of the crystallization occurred from the center outwards. Two other members of the group (Gibeon and Bishop Canyon) contain tabular tridymite, which we infer to have initially formed as veins deposited from a cooling SiO-rich vapor. The silicates were clearly introduced into IVA irons after the initial magma crystallized. Because the y-iron crystals in SJN are typically about 5 cm across, an order of magnitude smaller than in IVA irons that do not contain massive silicates, we infer that the metal was in the gamma-iron field when the silicates were injected. The SJN and Steinbach silicate compositions are near the low-Ca-pyroxene/silica eutectic compositions. We suggest that a tectonic event produced a eutectic-like liquid and injected it together with unmelted pyroxene grains into fissures in the solid metal core. Published estimates of IVA metallographic cooling rates range from 20 to 3000 K/Ma, leading to a hypothesized breakup of the core during a major impact followed by scrambling of the core and mantle debris [Haack, H., Scott, E.R.D., Love, S.G., Brearley, A. 1996. Thermal histories of IVA stony-iron and iron meteorites: evidence for asteroid fragmentation and reaccretion. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60, 3103-3113]. This scrambling model is physically implausible and cannot explain the strong correlation of estimated cooling rates with metal composition. Previous workers concluded that the low-Ca clinopyroxene in SJN and Steinbach formed from protopyroxene by quenching at a cooling rate of 10(sup 12) K/Ma, and suggested that this also supported an impact-scrambling model. This implausible spike in cooling rate by a factor of 10(sup 10) can be avoided if the low-Ca clinopyroxene were formed by a late shock event that converted orthopyroxene to clinopyroxene followed by minimal growth in the clinopyroxene field, probably because melt was also produced. We suggest that metallographic cooling-rate estimates (e.g., based on island taenite) giving similar values throughout the metal compositional range are more plausible, and that the IVA parent asteroid can be modeled by monotonic cooling followed by a high-temperature impact event that introduced silicates into the metal and a low-temperature impact event that partially converted thopyroxene into low-Ca clinopyroxene.

Wasson, John T.↗

The impact of temperature dependent CO2 cross section measurements: A role for heterogeneous chemistry in the atmosphere of Mars?

Carbon dioxide comprises over 95 percent of the Mars atmosphere, despite continuous photolysis of CO2 by solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Since the direct recombination of CO and O is spinforbidden, the chemical stability of CO2 in the Martian atmosphere is thought to be the result of a HO(x)-catalyzed recombination scheme. Thus the rate of CO oxidation is sensitive to the abundance and altitude distribution of OH, H, and HO2. Most Martian atmospheric models assume that HO(x) abundances are governed purely by gas phase chemistry. However, it is well established that reactive HO(x) radical are adsorbed by a wide variety of surfaces. The authors have combined laboratory studies of H, OH, and HO2 adsorption on inorganic surfaces, observational data of aerosol distributions, and an updated photochemical model to demonstrate that adsorption on either dust or ice aerosols is capable of reducing HO(x) abundances significantly, thereby retarding the rate of CO oxidation.

Anbar, A. D.↗

Low blow Charpy impact of silicon carbides

The room-temperature impact resistance of several commercial silicon carbides was examined using an instrumented pendulum-type machine and Charpy-type specimens. Energy balance compliance methods and fracture toughness approaches, both applicable to other ceramics, were used for analysis. The results illustrate the importance of separating the machine and the specimen energy contributions and confirm the equivalence of KIc and KId. The material's impact energy was simply the specimen's stored elastic strain energy at fracture.

Abe, H.↗

Measurement of post-shock temperatures in aluminum and stainless steel

Until recently experimental measurements of post-impact temperatures have been obtained only for metals at high pressures. Our aim has been to develop a technique for measuring post-shock temperatures in a variety of materials, including metals and silicates, at pressures in the range of 5 to 50 GPa, providing further insight into the shock process in these substances and additional constraints to available equation of state data. This paper describes the method we have developed, and its application to the determination of post-shock temperatures in aluminum-2024 and stainless steel-304.

Raikes, S. A.↗

The geological record of life 3500 Ma ago: Coping with the rigors of a young earth during late accretion

Thin cherty sedimentary layers within the volcanic portions of the 3,500 to 3,300 Ma-old Onverwacht and Fig Tree Groups, Barberton Greenstone belt, South Africa, and Warrawoona Group, eastern Pilbara Block, Western Australia, contain an abundant record of early Archean life. Five principal types of organic and probably biogenic remains and or structures can be identifed: stromatolites, stromatolite detritus, carbonaceous laminite or flat stromalite, carbonaceous detrital particles, and microfossils. Early Archean stromatolites were reported from both the Barberton and eastern Pilbara greenstone belts. Systematic studies are lacking, but two main morphological types of stromatolites appear to be represented by these occurrences. Morphology of the stromalites is described. Preserved early Archean stromatolites and carbonaceous matter appear to reflect communities of photosynthetic cyanobacteria inhabiting shallow, probably marine environments developed over the surfaces of low-relief, rapidly subsiding, simatic volcanic platforms. The overall environmental and tectonic conditions were those that probably prevailed at Earth's surface since the simatic crust and oceans formed sometime before 3,800 Ma. Recent studies also suggest that these early Archean sequences contain layers of debris formed by large-body impacts on early Earth. If so, then these early bacterial communities had developed strategies for coping with the disruptive effects of possibly globe-encircling high-temperature impact vapor clouds, dust blankets, and impact-generated tsunamis. It is probable that these early Archean biogenic materials represent organic communities that evolved long before the beginning of the preserved geological record and were well adapted to the rigors of life on a young, volcanically active Earth during late bombardment. These conditions may have had parallels on Mars during its early evolution.

Lowe, Donald R.↗