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This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).
We have trained a fully convolutional spatio-temporal model for fast and accurate representation learning in the challenging exemplar application area of fusion energy plasma science. The onset of major disruptions is a critically important fusion energy science issue that must be resolved for advanced tokamak plasmas such as the $25B burning plasma international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) experiment. While a variety of statistical methods have been used to address the problem of tokamak disruption prediction and control, recent approaches based on deep learning have proven particularly compelling. In the present paper, we introduce further improvements to the fusion recurrent neural network (FRNN) software suite, which delivered cross-machine disruption predictions with unprecedented accuracy using a large database of experimental signals from two major tokamaks. Up to now, FRNN was based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) variant of recurrent neural networks to leverage the temporal information in the data. Here, we implement and apply the "temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)" architecture to the time-dependent input signals. Furthermore, this allows highly optimized convolution operations to carry the majority of the computational load of training, thus enabling a reduction in training time, and the effective use of high-performance computing resources for hyperparameter tuning. At the same time, the TCN-based architecture achieves better predictive performance when compared with the LSTM architecture for various tasks for a representative fusion database.
Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.
In this fourth paper in a series, we present a model of the remarkable temporal and azimuthal variability of the Io plasma torus observed during the Cassini encounter with Jupiter. Over a period of three months, the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) observed a dramatic variaton in the average torus composition. Superimposed on this long-term variation, is a 10.07-hour periodicity caused by azimuthal variation in plasma composition subcorotating relative to System III longitude. Quite surprisingly, the amplitude of the azimuthal variation appears to be modulated at the beat frequency between the System III period and the observed 10.07-hour period. Previously, we have successfully modeled the months-long compositional change by supposing a factor of three increase in the amount of material supplied to Io's extended neutral clouds. Here, we extend our torus chemistry model to include an azimuthal dimension. We postulate the existence of two azimuthal variations in the number of superthermal electrons in the torus: a primary variation that subcorotates with a period of 10.07 hours and a secondary variation that remains fixed in System III longitude. Using these two hot electron variations, our model can reproduce the observed temporal and azimuthal variations observed by Cassini UVIS.
The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.
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A model of the daily carbon balance of a black spruce/feathermoss boreal forest ecosystem was developed and results compared to preliminary data from the 1994 BOREAS field campaign in northern Manitoba, Canada. The model, driven by daily weather conditions, simulated daily soil climate status (temperature and moisture profiles), spruce photosynthesis and respiration, moss photosynthesis and respiration, and litter decomposition. Model agreement with preliminary field data was good for net ecosystem exchange (NEE), capturing both the asymmetrical seasonality and short-term variability. During the growing season simulated daily NEE ranged from -4 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon uptake by ecosystem) to + 2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) (carbon flux to atmosphere), with fluctuations from day to day. In the early winter simulated NEE values were + 0.5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1), dropping to + 0.2 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1) in mid-winter. Simulated soil respiration during the growing season (+ 1 to + 5 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was dominated by metabolic respiration of the live moss, with litter decomposition usually contributing less than 30% and live spruce root respiration less than 10% of the total. Both spruce and moss net primary productivity (NPP) rates were higher in early summer than late summer. Simulated annual NEE for 1994 was -51 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1), with 83% going into tree growth and 17% into the soil carbon accumulation. Moss NPP (58 g C m(exp -2) d(exp -1)) was considered to be litter (i.e. soil carbon input; no net increase in live moss biomass). Ecosystem respiration during the snow-covered season (84 g Cm(exp -2)) was 58% of the growing season net carbon uptake. A simulation of the same site for 1968-1989 showed about 10-20% year-to-year variability in heterotrophic respiration (mean of + 113 g C m-2 y@1). Moss NPP ranged from 19 to 114 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); spruce NPP from 81 to 150 g C nt-2 y,@l; spruce growth (NPP minus litterfall) from 34 to 103 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1); NEE ranged from +37 to -142 g C m(exp -2) y(exp -1). Values for these carbon balance terms in 1994 were slightly smaller than the 1969 - 89 means. Higher ecosystem productivity years (more negative NEE) generally had early springs and relatively wet summers; lower productivity years had late springs and relatively dry summers.
Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.
While the ability to model the state of a space system over time is essential during spacecraft operations, the use of time-based simulations remains rare in preliminary design. The absence of the time dimension in most traditional early design tools can however become a hurdle when designing complex systems whose development and operations can be disrupted by various events, such as delays or failures. As the value delivered by a space system is highly affected by such events, exploring the trade space for designs that yield the maximum value calls for the explicit modeling of time.This paper discusses the use of discrete-event models to simulate spacecraft development schedule as well as operational scenarios and on-orbit resources in the presence of uncertainty. It illustrates how such simulations can be utilized to support trade studies, through the example of a tool developed for DARPA's F6 program to assist the design of "fractionated spacecraft".
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Observations of ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the major ion species (S(sup +), S(sup ++), S(sup +++), O(sup +), O(sup ++) of the Io Plasma torus made during the Cassini flyby (October 2000 to March 2001) have revealed significant time variability. Using a homogenoeus model for mass and energy flow in the torus parameterized by five input variables (transport timescale, neutral source strength, ratio of oxygen to sulfur atoms in the source, fraction of superthermal electrons, and temperature of the hot electrons), we have investigated the time variability of the torus properties (density, composition, and temperature) during the Cassini era. In order to match the changes in emissions, the model suggests that a significant change in the neutral source occurred near the beginning of the observing period, decreasing from more than 1.8 tons/s to 0.7 tons/s. The changes in the neutral source appear to coincide with the declining phase of a dramatic (i.e., 2-3 order of magnitude) peak in iogenic dust emissions observed by Galileo prior to the Cassini era.
Plants respond to wounding stress by changing gene expression patterns and inducing the production of hormones including jasmonic acid. This wounding transcriptional response activates specialized metabolism pathways such as the glucosinolate pathways in Arabidopsis thaliana. While the regulatory factors and sequences controlling a subset of wound-response genes are known, it remains unclear how wound response is regulated globally. Here, we how these responses are regulated by incorporating putative cis-regulatory elements, known transcription factor binding sites, in vitro DNA affinity purification sequencing, and DNase I hypersensitive sites to predict genes with different wound-response patterns using machine learning. We observed that regulatory sites and regions of open chromatin differed between genes upregulated at early and late wounding time-points as well as between genes induced by jasmonic acid and those not induced. Expanding on what we currently know, we identified cis-elements that improved model predictions of expression clusters over known binding sites. Using a combination of genome editing, in vitro DNA-binding assays, and transient expression assays using native and mutated cis-regulatory elements, we experimentally validated four of the predicted elements, three of which were not previously known to function in wound-response regulation. Our study provides a global model predictive of wound response and identifies new regulatory sequences important for wounding without requiring prior knowledge of the transcriptional regulators.
This is for the IEEE ICOPS 2021 Virtual Conference, scheduled for September 12-16, 2021. Michael Weller will be giving a virtual talk. Website found here: http://ece-events.unm.edu/icops2021/index.html
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Currently, research is being conducted on the optical properties of materials associated with the development of solid state lasers in the two micron region. In support of this effort, a mathematical model describing the energy transfer in a holmium laser sensitized with thulium is developed. In this paper, we establish some qualitative properties of the solution of the model, such as non-negativity, boundedness, and integrability. A local stability analysis is then performed from which conditions for asymptotic stability are attained. Finally, we report on our numerical analysis of the system and how it compares with experimental results.
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