Spatial scales and temporal scales in the theory of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence
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J. J. Podesta↗
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A semiparametric latent factor model for large scale temporal data with heteroscedasticity
Large scale temporal data have flourished in a vast array of applications, and their sophisticated structures, especially the heteroscedasticity among subjects with inter- and intra-temporal dependence, have fueled a great demand for new statistical models. In this paper, with covariate information, we consider a flexible model for large scale temporal data with subject-specific heteroscedasticity. Formally, the model employs latent semiparametric factors to simultaneously account for the subject-specific heteroscedasticity and the contemporaneous and/or serial correlations. The subject-specific heteroscedasticity is modeled as the product of the unobserved factor process and subject’s covariate effect, which is further characterized via additive models. For estimation, we propose a two-step procedure. First, the latent factor process and nonparametric loading are recovered through projection-based methods, and following, we estimate the regression components by approaches motivated from the generalized least squares. By scrupulously examining the non-asymptotic rates for recovering the factor process and its loading, we show the consistency and efficiency of estimated regression coefficients in the absence of prior knowledge of latent factor process and subject’s covariate effect. Here, the statistical guarantees remain valid even for finite time points that makes our method particularly appealing when the subjects significantly outnumber the observation time points. Using comprehensive simulations, we demonstrate the finite sample performance of our method, which corroborates the theoretical findings. Finally, we apply our method to a data set of air quality and energy consumption collected at 129 monitoring sites in the United States in 2015.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Model Performance in a Real-time Air Quality Estimation System
Aerosol optical depth (AOD), an indirect estimate of particle matter using satellite observations, has shown great promise in improving estimates of PM 2.5 air quality surface. Currently, few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve the model accuracy of PM 2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. We believe that two major aspects may be worthy of consideration in that area: 1) the approach to integrate satellite measurements with ground measurements in the pollution estimation, and 2) identification of an optimal temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground measurements. This paper is focused on the second aspect on the identifying the optimal temporal scale to correlate AOD with PM2.5. Five following different temporal scales were chosen to evaluate their impact on the model performance: 1) within the last 3 days, 2) within the last 10 days, 3) within the last 30 days, 4) within the last 90 days, and 5) the time period with the highest correlation in a year. The model performance is evaluated for its accuracy, bias, and errors based on the following selected statistics: the Mean Bias, the Normalized Mean Bias, the Root Mean Square Error, Normalized Mean Error, and the Index of Agreement. This research shows that the model with the temporal scale of within the last 30 days displays the best model performance in this study area using 2004 and 2005 data sets.
Li, Hui↗
Spatial and Temporal Scaling of Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing Data
Although remote sensing has a central role to play in the acquisition of synoptic data obtained at multiple spatial and temporal scales to facilitate our understanding of local and regional processes as they influence the global climate, the use of thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing data in this capacity has received only minimal attention. This results from some fundamental challenges that are associated with employing TIR data collected at different space and time scales, either with the same or different sensing systems, and also from other problems that arise in applying a multiple scaled approach to the measurement of surface temperatures. In this paper, we describe some of the more important problems associated with using TIR remote sensing data obtained at different spatial and temporal scales, examine why these problems appear as impediments to using multiple scaled TIR data, and provide some suggestions for future research activities that may address these problems. We elucidate the fundamental concept of scale as it relates to remote sensing and explore how space and time relationships affect TIR data from a problem-dependency perspective. We also describe how linearity and non-linearity observation versus parameter relationships affect the quantitative analysis of TIR data. Some insight is given on how the atmosphere between target and sensor influences the accurate measurement of surface temperatures and how these effects will be compounded in analyzing multiple scaled TIR data. Last, we describe some of the challenges in modeling TIR data obtained at different space and time scales and discuss how multiple scaled TIR data can be used to provide new and important information for measuring and modeling land-atmosphere energy balance processes.
Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
Identifying Optimal Temporal Scale for the Correlation of AOD and Ground Measurements of PM2.5 to Improve the Modeling Performance in a Real-Time Air Quality Estimation System
Aerosol optical depth (AOD), derived from satellite measurements using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), offers indirect estimates of particle matter. Research shows a significant positive correlation between satellite-based measurements of AOD and ground-based measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5). In addition, satellite observations have also shown great promise in improving estimates of PM2.5 air quality surface. Research shows that correlations between AOD and ground PM2.5 are affected by a combination of many factors such as inherent characteristics of satellite observations, terrain, cloud cover, height of the mixing layer, and weather conditions, and thus might vary widely in different regions, different seasons, and even different days in a same location. Analysis of correlating AOD with ground measured PM2.5 on a day-to-day basis suggests the temporal scale, a number of immediate latest days for a given run's day, for their correlations needs to be considered to improve air quality surface estimates, especially when satellite observations are used in a real-time pollution system. The second reason is that correlation coefficients between AOD and ground PM2.5 cannot be predetermined and needs to be calculated for each day's run for a real-time system because the coefficients can vary over space and time. Few studies have been conducted to explore the optimal way to apply AOD data to improve model accuracies of PM2.5 surface estimation in a real-time air quality system. This paper discusses the best temporal scale to calculate the correlation of AOD and ground particle matter data to improve the results of pollution models in real-time system.
Li,Hui↗
Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current
A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.
Fu, L.-L.↗
Multi-spatio-temporal scales PIV in a turbulent buoyant jet discharging in a linearly stratified environment
Time-resolved particle image velocimetry is implemented with a camera array and several laser sheets; this results in a multi-spatio-temporal scale system that is modular and flexible. The setup is optimized to capture global flow features, while locally resolving in space and time near the Kolmogorov scale. The apparatus relies extensively on machine vision CMOS cameras; they are inexpensive and stream to computer hard drive with virtually continuous time-resolved records (up to one hour for the current system). This leads to statistically converged data and also helps in minimizing down time between experimental runs. Details of the implementation and design of experiment are reported. The system instruments a vertical buoyant jet discharging in a linearly stratified environment. Refractive index matched aqueous solutions enable precise optical deployment. The density difference is 3% and the fluids have similar dynamic viscosity. The jet Reynolds number is 2.00 x 10 4 and is above the mixing transition. Such flows are typically challenging to instrument and few velocity field data are available to date. The velocity statistics are reported as well as first insights gained from the campaign.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Albedo-Induced Global Warming Impact at Multiple Temporal Scales within an Upper Midwest USA Watershed
Land surface albedo is a significant regulator of climate. Changes in land use worldwide have greatly reshaped landscapes in the recent decades. Deforestation, agricultural development, and urban expansion alter land surface albedo, each with unique influences on shortwave radiative forcing and global warming impact (GWI). Here, we characterize the changes in landscape albedo-induced GWI (GWI Δα ) at multiple temporal scales, with a special focus on the seasonal and monthly GWI Δα over a 19-year period for different land cover types in five ecoregions within a watershed in the upper Midwest USA. The results show that land cover changes from the original forest exhibited a net cooling effect, with contributions of annual GWI Δα varying by cover type and ecoregion. Seasonal and monthly variations of the GWI Δα showed unique trends over the 19-year period and contributed differently to the total GWI Δα . Cropland contributed most to cooling the local climate, with seasonal and monthly offsets of 18% and 83%, respectively, of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of maize fields in the same area. Urban areas exhibited both cooling and warming effects. Cropland and urban areas showed significantly different seasonal GWI Δα at some ecoregions. The landscape composition of the five ecoregions could cause different net landscape GWI Δα .
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Severe wind flow of small spatial and temporal scales: The microburst and related phenomena
Low-altitude winds on the meso- and microscale are the primary focus of study for the Research Applications Program (RAP) of NCAR. Local weather features such as microbursts, microburst lines, gust fronts, and convergent wind boundaries have been observed and documented extensively. A microburst is a strong, small-scale convective storm outflow which diverges horizontally in all directions upon impact with the ground (Fujita, 1981). A microburst line is composed of two or more microbursts which occur either simultaneously or consecutively, and subsequently form a diverging line of outflow. The temporal and spatial scales of these phenomena are shown. Microbursts and microburst lines generally occur on both the meso- and microscale, while gust fronts and convergent wind boundaries overlap into the mesoscale. Microbursts, in particular, not only are small spatially but are also a short-lived phenomenon. Clearly, some of these features are on a much smaller spatial and temporal scale than can be resolved by a global wind measurement. During the past three years, three experiments were held in the Denver, CO, area to observe boundary-layer winds. Their main objectives were observation and documentation of those weather features discussed above. The Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) Project, which ran in the summer of 1982, was set up to study microbursts. The Convective Initiation Project (1984) was designed to document clear-air convergent wind boundaries, including gust fronts, and their role in convective storm initiation. This project was immediately followed by the Classify, Locate, and Avoid Wind Shear experiment that expanded upon the work done in JAWS. Details on the scales of these weather features are presented. The wind sensors used to detect these phenomena are also discussed. Concluding comments address the usefulness of a global wind measurement system as it pertains to our local scale of interest.
Roberts, Rita D.↗
Multi-Scale Temporal Patterns in Stream Biogeochemistry Indicate Linked Permafrost and Ecological Dynamics of Boreal Catchments
Temporal patterns in stream chemistry provide integrated signals describing the hydrological and ecological state of whole catchments. However, stream chemistry integrates multi-scale signals of processes occurring in both the catchment and stream. Deconvoluting these signals could identify mechanisms of solute transport and transformation and provide a basis for monitoring ecosystem change. Here, we applied trend analysis, wavelet decomposition, multivariate autoregressive state-space modeling, and analysis of concentration-discharge relationships to assess temporal patterns in high-frequency (15 min) stream chemistry from permafrost-influenced boreal catchments in Interior Alaska at diel, storm, and seasonal time scales. We compared catchments that varied in spatial extent of permafrost to identify characteristic biogeochemical signals. Catchments with higher spatial extents of permafrost were characterized by increasing nitrate concentration through the thaw season, an abrupt increase in nitrate and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and declining conductivity in late summer, and flushing of nitrate and fDOM during summer rainstorms. In contrast, these patterns were absent, of lower magnitude, or reversed in catchments with lower permafrost extent. Solute dynamics revealed a positive influence of permafrost on fDOM export and the role of shallow, seasonally dynamic flowpaths in delivering solutes from high-permafrost catchments to streams. Lower spatial extent of permafrost resulted in static delivery of nitrate and limited transport of fDOM to streams. Shifts in concentration-discharge relationships and seasonal trends in stream chemistry toward less temporally dynamic patterns might therefore indicate reorganized catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry due to permafrost thaw.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data Fusion and Mining Techniques to Map Water Use and Drought across Spatial and Temporal Scales
As the world’s water resources come under increasing tension due to dual stressors of climate change and population growth, accurate knowledge of water consumption through evapotranspiration (ET) over a range in spatial scales will be critical in developing adaptation strategies. Remote sensing methods for monitoring consumptive water use (e.g, ET) are becoming increasingly important, especially in areas of significant water and food insecurity. One method to estimate ET from satellite-based methods, the Atmosphere Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model uses the change in mid-morning land surface temperature to estimate the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes which are then used to estimate daily ET. This presentation will outline several recent enhancements to the ALEXI modeling system, with a focus on global ET and drought monitoring. Until recently, ALEXI has been limited to areas with high resolution temporal sampling of geostationary sensors. The use of geostationary sensors makes global mapping a complicated process, especially for real-time applications, as data from as many as five different sensors are required to be ingested and harmonized to create a global mosaic. However, our research team has developed a new and novel method of using twice-daily observations from polar-orbiting sensors such as MODIS and VIIRS to estimate the mid-morning rise in LST that is used to drive the energy balance estimations within ALEXI. This allows the method to be applied globally using a single sensor (in this case, initially MODIS with a planned transition to VIIRS) rather than a global compositing of all available geostationary data. Other advantages of this new method include the higher spatial resolution provided by MODIS and VIIRS and the increased sampling at high latitudes where oblique view angles limit the utility of geostationary sensors. This presentation will focus on global applications for mapping water use and drought using data mining and data fusion across spatial scales extending from 5-km to 30-m “field-scale” estimates.
Christopher Hain↗
Multi-Omics Reveals Temporal Scales of Carbon Metabolism in Synechococcus Elongatus PCC 7942 Under Light Disturbance
Central carbon metabolism in model cyanobacteria involves multiple pathways to adapt to energy-light limitations across diel cycles. However, the success in mechanistic modeling for phenotypic prediction of the protein regulators in the metabolic state depends on capturing the vast possibilities emerging from multiple regulatory pathways in complex biological processes. Here, we developed a physics-informed machine learning approach based on energy-landscape concepts to predict regulatory proteins responding to cyclic circadian and unforeseen light perturbations in cyanobacterial metabolic networks. Our approach provides interpretable de novo models for inferring gene expression dynamics from Synechococcus elongatus over diel cycles and using redox proteome analysis to distinguish immediate light-responsive elements from circadian-regulated processes in carbon metabolism pathways. We identified distinct temporal signatures with the analysis of the redox proteome: there was an immediate shift in cysteine redox states accompanied by a limited change in protein abundance under constant illumination and after 2 hours of darkness. This discovery indicates that the generation of reductants coordinates photoinduced electron transport with redox metabolic pathways in two discernable molecular mechanisms: fast redox-based protein modifications occur immediately after the light disturbance, followed by slow transcriptional regulations across networks. This temporal regulation reveals how metabolic networks integrate rapid light responses with programmed circadian rhythms to maintain cellular homeostasis under the light-energy limitations over the diel cycle.
Biomolecular & subcellular processes↗
Ionizing photon interactions modulate the optical properties of crystals with femtosecond scale temporal resolution
In this work, we continue our study of a new method for the detection of ionizing radiation with the potential for a dramatic improvement in coincidence time resolution (CTR) for time-of-flight positron emission tomography (ToF-PET) using the modulation of a material's optical properties instead of the scintillation mechanism. Our previous work has shown that for non-scintillation materials such as bismuth silicon oxide (BSO) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), their refractive index can be modulated by annihilation photon interactions. Additionally, the ultrafast nature of this process however remains unexplored. The ionizing radiation-induced charge carriers alter the local band structure in these materials, thus changing the complex refractive index. This mechanism is routinely used at the linac coherent light source (LCLS) facility of the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory to measure x-ray pulse arrival times with femtosecond scale resolution for photon energies between 0.5 and 10 keV. The method described here follows that example by using a frequency chirped visible continuum pulse to provide a monotonic wavelength-to-time mapping by which one can measure the time-dependent refractive index modulation. In addition, we describe an interference-based measurement setup that allows for significantly improved sensitivity while preserving a timing precision of approximately 10 fs (σ) when measuring the arrival time of below 10 keV x-ray pulses with yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) crystal. The method is presented in the context of ToF-PET application with further discussions on the potential CTR achievable if a similar detection concept is adopted for detecting 511 keV photons. Semi-empirical analysis indicates that the predicted CTR achievable is on the order of 1 ps (FWHM).
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales
As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.
Houben, Nikolaus↗
Multi‐Scale Temporal Variability of Turbulent Mixing During a Monsoon Intra‐Seasonal Oscillation in the Bay of Bengal: An LES Study
A process study using large‐eddy simulations is carried out to explore the dominant 1‐D processes that affect mixed layer (ML) properties during an event of summer Monsoon Intra‐seasonal Oscillations (MISO) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB). These simulations use realistic air‐sea fluxes and initial conditions that were collected during the summer 2018 MISO‐BOB field experiment to explore the roles of thermal inversion layer (TIL) and Langmuir turbulence (LT) in modulating ML properties. The simulations span an active period with heavy rain and strong winds and a break period with strong solar heat flux and little rain. The mixed layer depth (MLD), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) are most affected by the presence of near‐inertial oscillations, solar heating and precipitation, all of which occur at different timescales. The subsurface warming induced by the TIL reduces the SST variability at the MISO timescale when compared with the simulation without TIL. Comparison of simulations with and without LT indicates that LT enhances subsurface warming during the active phase and reduces diurnal SST modulation during the break phase. Finally, simulations with 1‐D mixing models show a wide disparity in the evolution of MLD, SST, and SSS.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil
Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The Challenges of Modeling Defect Behavior and Plasticity across Spatial and Temporal Scales: A Case Study of Metal Bilayer Impact
Atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) and a microstructural dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity (DCP) framework were used together across time scales varying from picoseconds to nanoseconds and length scales spanning from angstroms to micrometers to model a buried copper–nickel interface subjected to high strain rates. The nucleation and evolution of defects, such as dislocations and stacking faults, as well as large inelastic strain accumulations and wave-induced stress reflections were physically represented in both approaches. Both methods showed similar qualitative behavior, such as defects originating along the impactor edges, a dominance of Shockley partial dislocations, and non-continuous dislocation distributions across the buried interface. The favorable comparison between methods justifies assumptions used in both, to model phenomena, such as the nucleation and interactions of single defects and partials with reflected tensile waves, based on MD predictions, which are consistent with the evolution of perfect and partial dislocation densities as predicted by DCP. This substantiates how the nanoscale as modeled by MD is representative of microstructural behavior as modeled by DCP.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Multizone Modeling of Black Hole Accretion and Feedback in 3D GRMHD: Bridging Vast Spatial and Temporal Scales
Simulating accretion and feedback from the horizon scale of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) out to galactic scales is challenging because of the vast range of scales involved. Elaborating on H. Cho et al., we describe and test a "multizone" technique, which is designed to tackle this difficult problem in three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations. While short-timescale variability should be interpreted with caution, the method is demonstrated to be well-suited for finding dynamical steady states over a wide dynamic range. We simulate accretion on a nonspinning SMBH ($a\ast$ = 0) using initial conditions and the external galactic potential from a large-scale galaxy simulation and achieve a steady state over eight decades in radius. As found in H. Cho et al., the density scales with radius as ρ ∝ r –1 inside the Bondi radius R B , which is located at R B = 2 × 10 5 r g (≈60 pc for M87), where r g is the gravitational radius of the SMBH; the plasma-β is ~ unity, indicating an extended magnetically arrested state; the mass accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is ≈1% of the analytical Bondi accretion rate ${\dot{M}}_{{\rm{B}}};$ and there is continuous energy feedback out to ≈100R B (or beyond > kpc) at a rate $\approx 0.02\dot{M}{c}^{2}$. Surprisingly, no ordered rotation in the external medium survives as the magnetized gas flows to smaller radii, and the final steady solution is very similar to when the exterior has no rotation. Using the multizone method, we simulate GRMHD accretion over a wide range of Bondi radii, R B ~ 10 2 –10 7 r g , and find that $\dot{M}/{\dot{M}}_{{B}}\approx {({R}_{{B}}/6\,{r}_{g})}^{-0.5}$.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗